state of play: 03/25/2025

STATE OF THE GAME: Stanowski: Mentzen Won't Reach the Second Round, But in 3 Years No Government Will Exist Without Him; CBOS: Trzaskowski Already Has Support of Half of Third Way and Left Voters

Łukasz Mężyk

— PRODIGAL AND IN MANY CASES MINDLESS SOCIAL POLICY CREATED MENTZEN, TRUMP, MILEI, AND OTHER POPULISTS. IT'S A SHAME THAT ONLY PUTIN AND TRUMP ARE BRINGING ABOUT SOBRIETY – JANUSZ MAJCHEREK IN GW: “However, this is also the fault of liberals, who failed to combine economic liberalism with moral liberalism (not to be confused with libertinism) in an attractive formula. The ongoing downfall of the left may spur them to work on such a formula, combining economic freedoms with moral tolerance and cultural liberties. In any case, the reorientation of public spending towards defense tasks, and therefore public tasks, forced by Putin and Trump, means the necessity of abandoning social redistribution.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31795743,na-obrone-potrzeba-pieniedzy-koniec-socjalnego-rozdawnictwa.html

— 800 BILLION EUROS FROM THE EU FOR DEFENSE? IT'S A MYTH. WE ARE DISPELLING DOUBTS – MACIEJ MIŁOSZ IN RZ
: “Within the ReArm Europe mechanism, presented by the European Commission, there is a figure of 800 billion euros. However, the real amount from this is 150 billion euros, which national states will be able to… borrow. The rest of this amount is creative rhetoric.”
https://www.rp.pl/biznes/art42000071-800-mld-euro-z-ue-na-obrone-to-mit-rozwiewamy-watpliwosci

— WINI INTERVIEWS RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI. WINI SERVED TRZASKOWSKI COFFEE IN A JAMIRQUAI MUG:
https://youtu.be/cGhkp8t7V-w?si=vTL0SSvNAf_zQgD

— STABILIZATION OF RESULTS IN CBOS: TRZASKOWSKI 34%, NAWROCKI 23%, MENTZEN 21%.

— KO'S CANDIDATE IS SUPPORTED BY ALMOST HALF OF THIRD WAY SUPPORTERS AND HALF OF LEFT VOTERS – CBOS: “KO's candidate is supported by almost half of the Third Way supporters (49%), while significantly fewer of them, just under a third, support Szymon Hołownia (32%). Nearly half of the Left electorate (46%) also counts Rafał Trzaskowski among their supporters. More than twice as few people in this electorate support the Left candidate Magdalena Biejat (22%).”
https://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/flashe_tekst.php?nr=17/2025

— WIPLER STATES ON REPUBLIKA THAT HE WILL VOTE FOR NAWROCKI IN THE SECOND ROUND “SO THAT TUSK DOESN'T HAVE FULL POWER” AND EXPECTS A BILATERAL DECLARATION FOR MENTZEN: https://x.com/jachcy/status/1904259860746678407

— MENTZEN WON'T BE PRESIDENT, IN MY OPINION HE WON'T EVEN BE IN THE SECOND ROUND, IT'S NOT THE RIGHT TIME YET. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, IN MY OPINION, IN THREE YEARS IT WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORM A GOVERNMENT WITHOUT HIM – KRZYSZTOF STANOWSKI
: “In my opinion, Sławomir Mentzen will not be president, in my opinion he will not even be in the second round, it is not the right time yet. But what is much more important, in my opinion, in three years it will be impossible to form a government without him. And he will be able to bid very high. Because it will either be a government with Mentzen, and a very prominent Mentzen at that, or there will be no government at all.”

— A TOTAL GENERATIONAL SHIFT IS COMING, AND WE NEED TO GET USED TO A STRONG CONFEDERACY; RECORD POPULARITY AMONG YOUNG PEOPLE IS POINTLESSLY MOCKED – STANOWSKI CONTINUES: “Those crowds of people at Mentzen's events – and that record popularity in polls among young people, often senselessly mocked – will translate into very concrete electoral results in three years. Everyone wants to reach young people, but few succeed. And when someone does succeed – it's madness to criticize them for it. Trzaskowski also figured out he needed this, so he organized an interview with Wini, because that's where the young audience is. And what happened? In a whole day, it didn't even get 50,000 views… Young people are simply not very interested in him. A total generational shift is coming, and we need to get used to a strong Konfederacja.”
https://x.com/K_Stanowski/status/1904227425715712327

— MENTZEN SATISFIES THE STRONGER ONES, AND THIS IS NOT JUST A THREAT PERCEIVED BY PEOPLE WITH LIBERAL AND LEFT-WING VIEWS – KATARZYNA SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Mentzen satisfies the stronger ones, and this is not just a threat perceived by people with liberal and left-wing views. It is a step in the process of creating a completely different society than the one formed by modern Europe. It is a step towards Trump's America.”
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2025/03/20/skrzydlowska-kalukin-kto-sie-moze-bac-mentzena-ten-kto-nie-chce-polski-trumpa/

— ANDRZEJ SZEJNA HAS ACCESS TO “TOP SECRET” INFORMATION. ABW HAS BEEN CHECKING FOR SEVERAL MONTHS WHETHER HE SHOULD HAVE ACCESS TO “NATO COSMIC TOP SECRET” AND “EU TOP SECRET” – PATRYK SŁOWIK AND PAWEŁ FIGURSKI IN WP: “Andrzej Szejna has access to 'strictly secret' information. The Internal Security Agency (ABW) has been checking for over a dozen months whether he should have access to 'NATO Cosmic Top Secret' and 'EU Top Secret'. Almost all Left MPs are aware of the current Deputy Minister's problems with alcohol abuse. It reached a point where one of the female MPs in the previous Sejm term bought a breathalyzer, which the MPs were supposed to blow into before club meetings.”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/wiceminister-szejna-alkohol-i-scisle-tajne-oswiadczenie-polityka-odzyskalem-kontrole-nad-zdrowiem-7138667868437120a

— GAWKOWSKI HOPES TO BE TREATED MORE SERIOUSLY IN THE GOVERNMENT – SYLWESTER RUSZKIEWICZ IN WP QUOTES A LEFT-WING POLITICIAN: “— Krzysiek has already started his media offensive. He's going on TV, announcing more and more new projects. It's a shame that little has come out of it so far. Maybe he hopes that once he takes over the party, they will start treating him more seriously in the government – a New Left activist tells Wirtualna Polska, referring to Gawkowski's recent announcement about introducing a digital tax.”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/przewrot-na-lewicy-gawkowski-chce-zastapic-czarzastego-7138593021958848a

— KADROWA WAR BETWEEN PLATFORM AND PSL. DISMISSALS IN STATE-OWNED COMPANIES IN THE BACKGROUND – MONIKA WALUŚ IN Onet
: “— This situation acted like a red flag to Piotr Zgorzelski [PSL Secretary]. He summoned Henryk Smolarz, president of the National Support Centre for Agriculture, and Wojciech Legawiec, president of the Agricultural Property Agency, and then ordered them to fire people from PO – claims our informant. – He certainly didn't point at anyone personally, but the suggestion must have come from Piotr Zgorzelski – confirms another of our interlocutors. When asked by Onet whether the changes in companies managed by people associated with PSL are related to the changes in Totalizator Sportowy, Piotr Zgorzelski stated that he was unaware of the matter and denied having any influence on it.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/kadrowa-wojna-platformy-i-psl-u-w-tle-zwolnienia-w-spolkach/qdsdwgd,79cfc278

— TURMOIL IN THE COALITION. MINISTERS FROM POLSKA 2050 ARE FIGHTING FOR SZYMON HOŁOWNIA'S SUCCESSION – DOMINIKA DŁUGOSZ IN NEWSWEEK: “Dominika Długosz spoke about the conflict within Szymon Hołownia's party. Two ministers are fighting each other: Minister of Climate Paulina Hennig-Kloska and Minister of Funds and Regional Policy Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz. — I heard from Polska 2050 that Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz has very big ambitions. She was actually thinking six months ago that she would become the head of Polska 2050, because there was a plan that Szymon Hołownia, by running in the elections, would give up power in the party. But while she is aligned with the parliamentary club, the leadership, and well-known MPs of Polska 2050, the party's grassroots support Paulina Hennig-Kloska.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/ministry-z-polski-2050-wziely-sie-za-lby-walcza-o-schede-po-szymonie-holowni/bg214pl,452ad802

— “THERE ARE NO OBJECTIONS TO THE COURSE OF THIS PROCEEDING.” RPO ON THE MINUTES OF BARBARA SKRZYBEK’S HEARING – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/03/25/

— LACK OF DECISIVE SUPPORT FOR EWA WRZOSEK DESERVES CRITICISM – ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO THE FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES OF THE RULE OF LAW – LESZEK MILLER ON X: As a prosecutor, Wrzosek has repeatedly publicly defended the independence of the judiciary and the rule of law, making her a voice of opposition to the politicization of the justice system. The lack of reaction or outright indifference from the October 15th Coalition to the harassment of Ms. Wrzosek by PiS is a dire signal. If the new majority is unable or unwilling to stand by those who defended the rule of law, it risks becoming an accomplice to the silent acceptance of injustice. And in a state of law, there should be no place for that.
https://x.com/LeszekMiller/status/1903450500965503309

— THE PRIME MINISTER IS PLAYING THE ROLE OF AN ARROGANTE – PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “This story is doubly sad. A woman is dying who, according to life expectancy statistics, should have lived for about 20 more years. PiS is using misfortune to unleash a wave of hate that is completely escaping rational assessment and pushing public debate into the realm of eerie absurdity. And finally, the democratic government responds with an instinct to close ranks according to the principle that if something is bad, it's not our fault. The Prime Minister is playing the role of an arrogant person who issues a blank certificate of immorality.”
https://oko.press/z-archiwum-x-tusk-obraza-i-szantazuje-moralnie-krytykow-prokurator-wrzosek

— UNTIL THE PERSECUTION ENDS, I WILL NOT MAKE STATEMENTS IN THE MEDIA, NEITHER TRADITIONAL NOR SOCIAL – INFORMED PROSECUTOR EWA WRZOSEK:
https://x.com/e_wrzosek/status/1904259860746678407

— TUSK WILL FULFILL HIS PROMISE REGARDING FOREST PROTECTION IN 2358 – PAULINA JANUSZEWSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “A hundred years, a hundred… rather 333 years – that's how long, according to Greenpeace Poland's calculations, Polish forests will have to wait for protection if the government continues to confuse them with timber factories or obstacles on the path to large, anti-environmental investments. Although centuries-old primeval forests are one of our most valuable green resources, trees too often lose the fight against the axes of the State Forests, so they have less and less chance of reaching a venerable age. On the occasion of the International Day of Forests, falling on March 21, I wish myself and you that the traditional birthday song comes true and our forests live to be at least a hundred.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/tusk-zrealizuje-obietnice-dotyczaca-ochrony-lasow-w-2358-roku/

— BIRTHDAYS: Michał Sutowski, Henry James Foy, Marek Czyż, Jerzy Materna, Wojciech Ziemniak.


Łukasz Mężyk