state of play: 03/11/2025

STATE OF PLAY: New Polls Show Left Wing Below Threshold and Braun Rising. Biejat, Migalski: For Now, Trump Loves Poles. Do We Want to Change That?

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— COALITION PARTNERS RECORD SIGNIFICANT DROPS IN SUPPORT BY 4 PP, CONFEDERATION WITH RECORD RESULTS – IBRIS FOR RZ: “Konfederacja can count on as much as 17.1 percent support, an increase of 5.5 percentage points compared to February. In fourth place is Trzecia Droga (Third Way) with 5.8 percent, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points from the previous month. Lewica (The Left) fares even worse with 4.5 percent support (down 3.8 percentage points from last month). The party Razem (Together) occupies the last position in the IBRiS survey with 1.9 percent support (up 0.4 percentage points from February).”

— CIVIC COALITION AND PIS ALSO SUFFER LOSSES, THOUGH SMALLER – CONTINUING IBRIS IN RZ: “The Civic Coalition remains in first place with 31.1 percent support. Compared to a similar survey for ‘Rz’ from early February 2025, Donald Tusk’s party has lost 2.4 percentage points. PiS, the second strongest player, currently holds 27.5 percent support, down 1.8 percentage points from February.”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41903561-nowy-sondaz-skok-poparcia-dla-konfederacji-pis-i-ko-traca

– TRZASKOWSKI 37, MENTZEN 22, NAWROCKI 21, HOŁOWNIA 7, BRAUN 3, BIEJAT 3 – POLLSTER SURVEY FOR SE:
https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/mentzen-wyprzedzil-nawrockiego-zobacz-koniecznie-najnowszy-sondaz-prezydencki-aa-exyQ-ZC6P-MDEp.html

— TRZASKOWSKI 35, NAWROCKI 23, MENTZEN 16, HOŁOWNIA 7, BRAUN 4, BIEJAT 3 – SOCIAL CHANGES SURVEY: https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/723518-tylko-u-nas-social-changes-nawrocki-drugi

— DO YOU KNOW HOW MANY TANKS GREAT EUROPE CAN PRODUCE ANNUALLY? 30! YES! 30 UNITS! AND ONLY GERMANY, AND ONLY FOR ITSELF! IF ANYONE STILL INTENDS TO PROVOKE, RIDICULE, AND ATTACK AMERICANS, THEY SHOULD THINK TWICE – WALDEMAR BUDA ON X:
https://x.com/waldemar_buda/status/1899208471553183800

— “THIS IS NOT A GOOD TIME FOR SUCH DECLARATIONS.” PEŁCZYŃSKA-NAŁĘCZ ON DIGITAL TAX – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/03/11/

— FOR NOW, TRUMP LOVES POLES AND SEES US AS A MODEL FOR OTHER NATO MEMBERS. DO WE WANT TO CHANGE THAT? – MAREK MIGALSKI IN WP: “And this is not a senseless strategy – considering the interests of Tusk and his political environment. The only thing is that it might turn out to be fatal for Poland’s interests. If this emotionally and intellectually immature occupant of the White House starts to perceive the Polish authorities as trouble-makers and critics, he might make decisions that will be unfavorable not for our government, but for our state. For now, Trump loves Poles and sees us as a model for other NATO members. Do we want to change that?”

— PROVOCATIONS ARE A MISTAKE – CONTINUES MIGALSKI: “PiS politicians smelled blood and, as is their way, started firing from the hip at Sikorski. To be clear – I also consider this bickering on X a mistake on our part. People like me, whose opinions don’t matter, are responsible for speculation about the exclusion, or not, of American infrastructure and public criticism of the new American administration, not government ministers whose job is to ensure our security. And that’s why I see Sikorski’s provocations towards Trump’s closest friend as a mistake.”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/niebezpieczna-wojenka-tuska-opinia-7133601237678592a

— RADOSŁAW SIKORSKI HAD TO LOSE THE CLASH WITH ELON MUSK – JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI IN RZ: “Poland and its head of diplomacy should not descend to this level. However, this is unfortunately a characteristic of the entire ruling team, starting with Donald Tusk. By resigning from his role as spokesperson and limiting himself to occasional interviews solely for friendly media, the Prime Minister will not dispel the doubts that Poles may have in these extremely difficult times. Emotional posts on X, even about ‘heated commentators’ who dared to criticize the head of government, will not replace real debate.”

— FORTUNATELY, POLAND IS NOT YET IN THE SAME SITUATION AS ZELENSKY – CONTINUES BIELECKI IN RZ: “All of this, in a light version, resembles what Volodymyr Zelensky experienced a few days ago at the White House. Except that the President of Ukraine has no choice: he must endure humiliation to gain something from Trump. Fortunately, Poland is not yet in such a situation.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41902511-jedrzej-bielecki-radoslaw-sikorski-starcie-z-elonem-muskiem-musial-przegrac

— FORBES ON GOOGLE’S BILLION-DOLLAR INVESTMENTS IN POLAND AGREED WITH TUSK: “Google would like to build an ‘ElevenLabs production line’ (referring to a Polish start-up using AI, valued at $3.3 billion). The strategic cooperation is expected to focus on energy, healthcare, and cybersecurity. The investment value is expected to be in the billions. More details will be known once infrastructural needs are assessed. Unfortunately, due to a truly catastrophic communication strategy, the public has primarily received information about the $5 million allocated by the Google Foundation, which simply joined the initiative, unrelated to the letter. Microsoft, in turn, has confirmed further investments in Poland worth $700 million.”
https://www.onet.pl/biznes/forbes/google-inwestuje-w-polsce-wartosc-ma-byc-liczona-w-miliardach/1h268kg,1f375b38

— GW ON SUBMARINE OFFERS: “The German and Swedish offers are important for Poland not only due to their modern technical solutions but also due to allied actions at sea. Sweden and Germany are the only NATO member states with direct access to the Baltic Sea that maintain submarine fleets.”
https://trojmiasto.wyborcza.pl/trojmiasto/7,35612,31752172,negocjacje-o-zakup-okretow-podwodnych-na-finiszu-stawka-kontrakt.html

— BIRTHDAYS: Borys Budka, Bożena Borys-Szopa, Ewelina Owczarska, Anika Słowińska.


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