state of play: 03/07/2025
— CBOS: PIS DIVIDES AS MUCH AS THE CONFEDERATION DIVIDES PIS: 8 PP.
— CIVIC PLATFORM POLLS HAVE STALLED AT 34, CONFEDERATION HAS RISEN BY 1 POINT SINCE FEBRUARY TO 18, PIS HAS LOST (SINCE JANUARY) 7 PP, THE LEFT HAS LOST 2 PP.
— IT APPEARS CIVIC PLATFORM HAS CONSUMED THE LEFT, CONFEDERATION HAS CONSUMED THE THIRD WAY, PIS IS LOSING TO THE UNDECIDED GROUP.
— CIVIC PLATFORM 34 (UNCHANGED), PIS 26 (-3), CONFEDERATION 18 (+1), LEFT 4 (-2), 3RD WAY 4 (UNCHANGED), UNDECIDED 11 (+3).
https://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/flashe_tekst.php?nr=12/2025
— THIS CONFEDERATE ELECTORATE IS NOW BEING "SANCTIFIED" BY SOME MEDIA (JUST AS ONE CANNOT TOUCH PIS VOTERS). WE SEE AGAIN A FASCINATION WITH "THE THIRD FORCE", "UPSETTING THE APPLE CART", "BREAKING THE PO-PIS DUOPOLY" – MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: "Times are changing, but there are still those eager for this forceful version of the world. What's more, this confederate electorate is now being 'sanctified' by some media (just as one cannot touch PiS voters). Again, we see a fascination with 'the third force', 'upsetting the apple cart', 'breaking the PO-PiS duopoly'. The 'Mentzen's Five' with its antisemitic undertones has long been forgiven, on the principle of: oh well, oh well; the primitivism of the entire offer is being counted as a plus. Overall, the Confederation's campaign is assessed as dynamic and modern because it has reach on the internet. The least attention is paid to the content, on the principle that 'efficiency' matters, and the rest, including the message, are clever instruments and skillful maneuvers. The problem is that all these novelties are essentially very old, dating back to the 1920s and 1930s. This has all been seen before: easy solutions, national egoism, xenophobia, resettlement ideas, etc. These new-old forces are marching in the same direction today: breaking up the 'Euro-kolkhoz', introducing 'healing' chaos, from which a new order, or rather disorder, is to emerge."
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2291437,1,dziarscy-chlopcy.read
— PETE HEGSETH SUGGESTS THAT THE US HOLDING BACK SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE IS TEMPORARY – "During a brief question-and-answer session after his opening remarks, to the question of whether the United States had permanently stopped supplying weapons to Ukraine, Hegseth reiterated that the program is only 'on hold' pending actual engagement on the path to peace. 'The President [is closely observing] what the Ukrainians are saying and doing in terms of engaging in this peace process, and we are very pleased with the signs we are seeing,' he said."
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/4111717/hegseth-uk-counterpart-discuss-working-toward-peace-in-ukraine/
— THE PRESIDENT WILL PARTICIPATE IN A SEJM SESSION, MATECKI DETAINED ON HIS WAY TO THE PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/03/07/
— A SYMPTOMLESS PRESIDENCY. DONALD TUSK IS WASTING A GREAT OPPORTUNITY – JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: "At a time when the security of our region is at stake, Poland's six-month EU presidency has so far been a wasted time and missed opportunity by Donald Tusk's government. France and Great Britain have completely taken the initiative, and even Italy is speaking up more loudly."
— TODAY ONE GETS THE IMPRESSION THAT THE GREATEST AMBITION OF THE POLISH PRESIDENCY IS TO ABANDON THE CHANGE TO SUMMER AND WINTER TIME – NIZINKIEWICZ FURTHER IN RZ: "Today, one gets the impression that the greatest ambition of the Polish presidency is to abandon the change to summer and winter time. Meanwhile, the European Commission has announced the postponement of the announcement of a plan to become independent of raw material imports from Russia. What does Poland have to say about that?"
— WE MAY NOT HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AND OPPORTUNITY, THE TIME IS UNTIL JUNE 30 – NIZINKIEWICZ STILL IN RZ: "Today it turns out that only one Donald matters in the world, and unfortunately, it's not Donald Tusk. There is still time to change this and strengthen Poland's security. We may not have a better chance and opportunity, the time is until June 30, 2025."
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41887781-jacek-nizinkiewicz-prezydencja-bezobjawowa-donald-tusk-marnuje-wielka-szanse
— BŁASZCZAK'S ARGUMENTS WILL NOT MEET ANY SUBSTANTIVE REACTION FROM THE OTHER SIDE, BECAUSE THEY CANNOT HAVE A GOOD ANSWER – PIOTR GURSZTYN ON WPOLITYCE: "Błaszczak's arguments will not meet any substantive reaction from the other side, because they cannot have a good answer. It is a fact that the defense ministers from Civic Platform – Bogdan Klich and Tomasz Siemoniak – implementing the policy of their government, reduced the army to 96,000 men. Subtracting bureaucracy in military positions, support personnel, and various auxiliary services, this meant that Poland's borders with Belarus and Russia – over 600 km – would have to be defended by about 40,000 men (plus an undefined, but certainly insufficient number of reservists). This is an amount that Putin's and Lukashenka's troops could 'overwhelm' with sheer numbers. However, these same 40,000 men would not be able to defend the Vistula line, because one only needs to look at the map to see that it would be an even longer line than the sum of both borders. Besides, the Vistula is not a water obstacle that is particularly difficult for attacking troops to cross. Therefore, the 'Warta' plan could also be the result of some irrational, over-optimistic enthusiasm, in the sense that even the queen of Polish rivers would not stop the aggressor."
— IT WOULD NOT BE DEFENSE, BUT A MILITARY, POLITICAL, AND ABOVE ALL HUMANITARIAN CATASTROPHE – GURSZTYN FURTHER: "The former Minister of National Defence from the years 2018-2023 defends his decision to declassify the so-called 'Warta' plan from 2011, i.e., the concept of using the Polish Army in the event of Russian aggression against our country, with various arguments. We deliberately use the word 'use' here, because it would not be defense, but a military, political, and above all humanitarian catastrophe, threatening the biological survival of the Polish nation."
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/723121-blaszczak-ma-racje-wiec-tym-gorzej-dla-niego
— BŁASZCZAK STILL GAMBLES WITH POLAND'S SECURITY – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: "The former head of the Ministry of National Defence under PiS claims that if Rafał Trzaskowski wins the elections, Donald Tusk's government will cede eastern Poland to Russia. By undermining trust in the state and the Polish Army, Mariusz Błaszczak does a great service to the enemies of our country."
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41888001-michal-szuldrzynski-mariusz-blaszczak-wciaz-igra-z-bezpieczenstwem-polski
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