state of play: 03/06/2025

POLITICAL GAME: Kalukin: Tusk's and Trzaskowski's statements deepen Poland's 'rightward shift'; Duda: Nawrocki's program resembles mine

Łukasz Mężyk

— IN MY OPINION, DONALD TRUMP'S DECISION TO WITHHOLD AID IS A MEANS TO AN END, NOT A SOLUTION – PRESIDENT ANDRZEJ DUDA IN CONVERSATION WITH KAMILA BARANOWSKA ON INTERIA: “I see it more as a very firm stance on what happened in the Oval Office, which I would describe as a stalemate. In my opinion, Donald Trump's decision to withhold aid is a means to an end, not a solution. And the US president's words about wanting a swift end to the war confirm this.”

— IN MY OPINION, PEACE IS NECESSARY, AND BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE, ONLY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES CAN FORCE RUSSIA TOWARDS A PEACEFUL SOLUTION – PRESIDENT DUDA CONTINUES WITH BARANOWSKA ON INTERIA: “I'll answer with a question: Who today can end this war in such a way that Ukraine survives, which is what it's all about? So far, no one has succeeded. Russia continues to attack Ukraine, people continue to die, and if no one brings about an end to this war, it will drag on. In my opinion, peace is necessary, and based on past experience, only the President of the United States, as the world's most powerful military, nuclear, and economic power, can force Russia towards a peaceful solution.

— WON'T THE UNITED STATES PROTECT ITS STRATEGIC INTERESTS? IN MY OPINION, THIS IS THE BEST GUARANTEE OF SECURITY – THE PRESIDENT CONTINUES ON INTERIA: “If President Donald Trump cares so much about these minerals, and it's evident he does, then it's obvious to me that he considers it a strategic interest. Do you think the United States won't protect its strategic interests? In my opinion, this is the best guarantee of security. And the question President Zelensky must answer is: who will benefit from Ukraine's resources – the United States or Russia.”

— SO FAR, EUROPE'S ACTIONS HAVE ACHIEVED LITTLE. JUST AS THE MINSK AGREEMENTS ACHIEVED LITTLE BEFORE. PUTIN DIDN'T CARE ABOUT THEM – CLAIMS THE PRESIDENT IN AN INTERVIEW WITH INTERIA: “So far, little has come of Europe's actions. Just as little came of the Minsk agreements before. Putin didn't care about them, which shows their effectiveness, or rather, lack thereof. Therefore, I will repeat that if anyone can stop Putin, it is not the European leaders, but the President of the United States. And consequently, I remain calm because I know Donald Trump can be effective.”

— IT IS NO SECRET THAT TODAY, THE CANDIDATE WHOSE PROGRAM IS CLOSEST TO MY HEART, IN TERMS OF ACTION FOR POLAND, BUT ALSO THE VALUES I UPHOLD, IS KAROL NAWROCKI – DUDA CONTINUES WITH BARANOWSKA: “It is no secret that today, the candidate whose program is closest to my heart, in terms of action for Poland, but also the values I uphold, is Karol Nawrocki. The program he recently presented is similar to my own program with which I won the elections, which shows that I can count on continuity in many areas I have been involved in so far.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/zagranica/news-prezydent-andrzej-duda-dla-interii-tylko-donald-trump-moze-z,nId,7924946

— THE QUESTION IS, WITH WHOM WILL PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP WANT TO COOPERATE, BECAUSE HE IS AN ABSOLUTE HEAVYWEIGHT – ANDRZEJ DUDA IN CONVERSATION WITH FAKT: “I am observing the presidential campaign as much as I can. I am not following it very closely because I have been very absorbed by international issues in recent days. However, I think that for both candidates, security should be a fundamental issue, as it is probably the most important thing for Poles today. The programs that have been initiated must be continued. International cooperation with the United States will be a crucial matter. The question is, with whom will President Donald Trump want to cooperate, because he is an absolute heavyweight.”
https://www.fakt.pl/polityka/andrzej-duda-o-kulisach-rozmow-w-usa-jeden-temat-wywolal-usmiech-trumpa/eqnhnbx

— WE ARE WITNESSING AN OBVIOUS DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL, WHERE GERMANY WAS THE MAIN REFERENCE POINT FOR WASHINGTON IN EUROPE – MAREK BUDZISZ ON RP: “Recent diplomatic initiatives by Paris and London show that the leaders of these countries have understood the essence of the ongoing game. If America's intention is to change the nature of allied relations, we are dealing with an obvious departure from the previous model, where Germany was the main reference point for Washington in Europe. And signaling readiness for such a change has triggered a mechanism of new positioning for European countries. Both Macron and Starmer are striving for their countries to become the main partners of the United States in Europe. The growing importance of hard power arguments, which count more in times of upheaval than in periods of stabilization, helps them in this.”

— IN BERLIN, THIS CONCEPT IS UNDERSTOOD AS GERMANY'S LEADING ROLE IN EUROPE – MAREK BUDZISZ CONTINUES: “Germany knows that any restructuring of the existing model is tantamount to questioning its position, meaning the squandering of what Kohl achieved. That is why German commentaries most often and loudest speak of a collapse, or even a rupture, of transatlantic relations, because in Berlin, this concept is understood as Germany's leading role in Europe.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art41882871-marek-budzisz-glownym-celem-planu-donalda-trumpa-jest-zmiana-relacji-sojuszniczych

— HOSPITALS WILL RECEIVE MUCH LESS MONEY FROM THE NFZ THAN MINISTER LESZCZYNA PROMISED – JUDYTA WATOŁA IN GW: “He pointed out that the 450 services for which the NFZ will pay 100% are mainly highly specialized services. This means that the NFZ is once again favoring large, multidisciplinary hospitals and facilities that provide better-priced services (e.g., private dialysis chains). 'Meanwhile, district hospitals, which form the backbone of the healthcare system for millions of residents in smaller towns, are once again being disadvantaged,' reads the statement. As an example, OZPSP cites the draft regulation of the NFZ president, according to which district hospitals will no longer be able to settle, and therefore perform, certain better-paying orthopedic procedures.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31743649,co-zeznal-byly-ksiadz-od-koperty.html

— TRZASKOWSKI SUBMITS OVER A MILLION SIGNATURES TO THE PKW – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/03/06/

— TODAY IT IS MENTZEN WHO DICTATES THE STANDARD OF "NORMALITY," SLOWLY TAKING OVER THE RIGHT-WING DOMAIN – RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “One can even observe a reversal of roles in the PiS–Konfederacja relationship. Until recently, the latter was a more radical competitor, but boxing in a lower weight class and burning out in stunts, as Jarosław Kaczyński held the monopoly on serious right-wing politics. Today, it is Mentzen who dictates the standard of 'normalcy,' slowly taking over the right-wing domain, while Nawrocki tries to attack from the flank. For instance, recently, when he questioned mandatory vaccinations.”

— IN THE LAST YEAR, THE OVERALL LANDSCAPE HAS CHANGED, AND ALMOST ALL KONFEDERACJA TOPICS, ONCE NICHE, HAVE NOW BEGUN TO PENETRATE THE MAINSTREAM – KALUKIN CONTINUES.

— ALL OF POLISH POLITICS IS UNDERGOING A PROCESS OF ACCELERATED CONFEDERALIZATION – RAFAŁ KALUKIN AGAIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “One might get the impression that all of Polish politics is undergoing a process of accelerated confederederalization. PiS has completely abandoned the legacy of Jagiellonian policy, which has been an important identity pillar since the time of Lech Kaczyński. Nawrocki does not want Ukraine in NATO, or even in the European Union. He is bothered by Ukrainian refugees who 'cause problems in queues for doctors.' 'I am a Pole, I have Polish duties, and on behalf of Poles, I will exercise my presidency,' the candidate promises, styling himself as a new Dmowski. Although it was actually the much more cautious Rafał Trzaskowski who opened the bidding, by proposing to take away the 800+ benefit from unemployed Ukrainians. And now he unequivocally supports Prime Minister Tusk in his firm refusal to send Polish soldiers to Ukraine.”

— THE RECENTLY FASHIONABLE INTUITION THAT WE ARE GROWING A "POLISH AFD," BUT WITH DIFFERENT POLITICAL STRATEGIES, AS GERMAN POPULISTS FOLLOW A PATH OF RADICALIZATION, WHILE THEIR POLISH COUNTERPARTS SEEK A WAY TO REACH MORE MASS TASTES – STATES KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA.

— THE SOFT POPULIST BALANCING ACT OF TUSK AND TRZASKOWSKI SEEMS ALL THE MORE DANGEROUS, AS THE MECHANISM OF POLAND'S "RIGHTWARD SHIFT" DEEPENS FURTHER – KALUKIN'S CONCLUSION: “The soft populist balancing act of Tusk and Trzaskowski seems all the more dangerous, as it is not accompanied by an expansion of KO's coalition capabilities on the right, but rather further marginalizes the left flank. Thus, the mechanism of Poland's 'rightward shift' deepens further. Therefore, this course should be reversed the day after the elections. But will it not be too late then?”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2291461,1,konfederacja-straszy-pis-mentzen-sciga-nawrockiego-rosnie-nam-polskie-afd

— THIS MAY BE THE SHORTEST WAY TO BRING KACZYŃSKI TO COURT – WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI AND KRZYSZTOF KATKA IN GW: “Now the 'envelope' returns, and the PiS chairman faces corruption charges for urging the acceptance of a bribe, transferring undue benefit, and participating in the drafting of a flawed resolution 'for money.' This may be the shortest way to bring Kaczyński to court. If the court finds him guilty, the PiS chairman would be barred from holding public office.”

— GW ON FURTHER PLANNED HEARINGS: “According to our sources, hearings are planned in the coming days for Barbara Skrzypek, Kaczyński's secretary and member of Srebrna's board (the famous 'Pani Basia'), and the chairman's driver, who was at one point co-opted into the company's board meetings. Gerald Birgfellner is scheduled to be heard on March 26. This has been confirmed to us by attorney Roman Giertych, a KO MP and the Austrian's representative. It is possible that Birgfellner's wife will be heard along with him. The prosecution plans to hear Jarosław Kaczyński at the end of the proceedings.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31743649,co-zeznal-byly-ksiadz-od-koperty.html

— BIRTHDAYS: Tomasz Lis, Marek Ziółkowski, Piotr Marciniak, Beata Gosiewska.


Łukasz Mężyk