state of play: 02/20/2025

POLITICAL GAME: Stanowski Recalls Kraśka Denouncing Kaczyński's Anti-Russian Phobia, Wipler: Tusk Could Be the World's First Prime Minister to Fall Due to "Negroes" Arriving on July 1, 2026

Łukasz Mężyk

— "POLISH SPACE AGENCY SENT INFORMATION TO AN INVALID EMAIL." KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ ON FALLING DEBRIS ON PIASECKI'S SHOW – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/02/20/

— HAVE A NICE DAY!

— TODAY IS THE 50TH DAY OF THE YEAR, 86 DAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION SILENCE FOR THE 1ST ROUND!

— CLIENT DATA FROM BANKS SUCH AS ALIOR, MBANK, AND SANTANDER HAVE ENDED UP IN A PUBLICLY AVAILABLE ONLINE SERVICE USED FOR FILE SHARING. The leak includes, among other things, names, addresses, scanned documents, and bank statements. The source of the problem has not yet been revealed.
https://g.pl/news/7,188150,31704416,doszlo-do-wycieku-danych-klientow-polskich-bankow-sa-dostepne.html

— IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY REACTION FROM THE MINISTRY OF DIGITAL AFFAIRS; THE MINISTRY'S SOCIAL MEDIA IS DOMINATED BY REPORTS FROM MINISTER GAWKOWSKI'S VISIT TO JORDAN.

— THE MEDIA HAS NOTICED SURVEY INCREASES FOR KONFEDERACJA, but they are unlikely to connect this to the fact that information about them and Mentzen's campaign is rare on their platforms.

— ON THE MARGINS OF MEDIA-BYPASSING COMMUNICATION: Donald Tusk's recent television interviews include an appearance on TVN24's Fakty po Faktach in May 2024, and previously for three televisions in January 2024. Tusk's last press interview was a conversation with Gazeta Wyborcza in October 2024.

— POLLING COMPANIES MAKE A HUGE CONTRIBUTION TO THE STUPIDITY OF ALREADY SERIOUSLY STUPID SOCIETIES. EVERYWHERE, NOT JUST IN POLAND – PAWEŁ KUKIZ ON X: Perhaps this polling company, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, is more international than Ukrainian? With a large contribution of "Brussels socio-political thought"?
https://x.com/pkukiz/status/1892254289892

— THE LATEST PRESIDENTIAL POLL BY IPSOS PUBLISHED BY TVP IN LIQUIDATION:
Trzaskowski – 33%, (+1)
Nawrocki – 24%, (+2)
Mentzen – 15%, (+5)
Hołownia – 7%, (-2)
Stanowski – 3%,
Braun – 3%,
Biejat – 2%, (nc)
Zandberg – 2%,
Jakubiak – 1%.

— FROM THE SAME SURVEY FROM DECEMBER 18, I.E., A COMPARISON FROM 2 MONTHS AGO:

Trzaskowski: -2
Nawrocki +2
Mentzen +1
Hołownia -1
Biejat -2
Jakubiak -2

— SECOND ROUND: 49:40

— A MONTH AGO IN IPSOS IT WAS 42:29

— TWO MONTHS AGO – IN DECEMBER – IN IPSOS IT WAS: 42:34.

— FOR COMPARISON, THE IPSOS SURVEY FROM JANUARY 17:
https://www.tvp.info/84562741/wybory-prezydenckie-2025-sondaz-dla-1930-i-tvp-info-trzaskowski-przed-nawrockim-kandydaci-glosowanie-termin-sondaz-prezydencki-2025-r

— FOR COMPARISON, THE IPSOS SURVEY FROM DECEMBER 18:
https://www.tvp.info/84117579/wybory-prezydenckie-sondaz-prezydencki-dla-tvp-rafal-trzaskowski-karol-nawrocki-slawomir-mentzen-szymon-holownia-magdalena-biejat-marek-jakubiak-jakie-maja-poparcie

— NEW IPSOS PARTY SURVEY FOR TVP IN LIQUIDATION — WITH PIS IN THE LEAD:
Law and Justice 30% (+1)
Civic Coalition 29% (nc)
Konfederacja 16% (+4)
Third Way 10% (nc)
New Left 6% (-1)
Don't know/hard to say 5% (-3)
Razem Party 2% (-1)
https://www.tvp.info/85179921/prawo-i-sprawiedliwosc-i-koalicja-obywatelska-z-najwiekszym-poparciem-konfederacja-trzecia-sila-w-sejmie

— ACCORDING TO PRZEMYSŁAW WIPLER – A GUEST ON BOGDAN RYMANOWSKI'S PODCAST, DONALD TUSK "PERFECTLY UNDERSTANDS THAT HE COULD BE THE FIRST PRIME MINISTER IN WORLD HISTORY WHOSE GOVERNMENT WILL FALL DUE TO NEGROES".

— ON JULY 1, 2026, THE FIRST BUSES WITH THE WORST KIND OF IMMIGRANT, WHOM THE BELGIANS, FRENCH, GERMANS, ITALIANS, ETC. DID NOT WANT, WILL ARRIVE IN OUR COUNTRY – BELIEVES A KONFEDERACJA SEJM DEPUTY – WIPLER FURTHER STATES IN RYMANOWSKI'S PODCAST ON YT: – On July 1, 2026, the first buses with the worst kind of immigrant, whom the Belgians, French, Germans, Italians, etc. did not want, will arrive in our country – believes the Konfederacja deputy. In his opinion, the first critical moment will be "the EU directive on pocket money for these migrants." – The first critical moment, it turns out, is when they receive pocket money, as EU law suggests. A guy gets 1000 or 800 euros to play with, while living in an integration center – adds Przemysław Wipler. Prime Minister? – If he wants to arrest German police officers who were bringing people here, let him show some balls – says the Konfederacja politician.

— PRZEMYSŁAW WIPLER ALSO ANNOUNCES THAT KONFEDERACJA WILL SOON SUBMIT A MOTION REGARDING POLAND'S EXIT FROM THE WHO – STILL ON RYMANOWSKI'S YT. – For the same reasons Trump left – adds the guest on Rymanowski Live.
https://youtu.be/gtFKuqccKyc

— KRZYSZTOF STANOWSKI RECALLS KRAŚKA DENOUNCING KACZYŃSKI FOR ANTI-RUSSIAN PHOBIA AND WRITES: And when I now hear who is a "Russian boot", I remember this recording from about a decade ago. You can consider Kaczyński to be an unmanageable, shut-in-with-cats, sloppy old man who has no idea about the world or the prices in the nearest shop. You can, because why not? You can consider him a crazy guy who confuses his pills and if he takes the wrong ones, he'll cause problems for Poland. You can. But then there are recordings in the archives. I recommend watching it, you might come to surprising conclusions.

— WE ARE LIVING IN STRANGE TIMES WHEN THOSE WHO REPEAT THE DAY'S NARRATIVE – BASED ON TODAY'S OBVIOUS KNOWLEDGE, CURRENT EMOTIONS, AND WISDOM HEARD ON THE RADIO – ARE CONSIDERED WISE, GENUINE, AND FIRST-RATE POLITICIANS. WITHOUT A SHRED OF SHAME, THESE PEOPLE ARE NOT ONLY CAPABLE OF EMBRACING OPINIONS THEY RECENTLY ARGUED AGAINST AND DESPISED, BUT THEY ARE ALSO ABLE TO UNHESITATINGLY CONDUCT A TRUE SLAUGHTER OF THOSE WHO WERE RIGHT AND WARNED YEARS EARLIER – Stanowski again:
https://x.com/K_Stanowski/status/1892280602583290179

— THIRD WAY LEADING NOWHERE. THE ALLIANCE OF HOŁOWNIA AND KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ IS FADING AWAY – KRYSTYNA NASZKOWSKA IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “Firstly, Third Way is clearly fading away. The alliance with Poland 2050 may collapse this year. The symptoms of this decline are visible to the naked eye. The Peasants are completely uninvolved in the election campaign of Szymon Hołownia, who is, after all, their joint presidential candidate. – They want our local structures to work for him because they haven't built their own structures yet and probably won't – says one activist bitterly. – But what do we get out of it? Nothing! Hołownia is increasingly arrogant and puffed up, and we have to toil – says one activist bitterly.”

— ACCORDING TO NASZKOWSKA, KONFEDERACJA IS TAKING PSL'S PLACE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE: “Finding a new ally won't be easy. Konfederacja is likely out of the question, as its politicians consider PSL a party that made deals with the communists in the Polish People's Republic (albeit under the name United Peasant Party) and they don't intend to fraternize with the Peasants. Moreover, Konfederaci have already taken their place in the hearts of a significant portion of farmers and rural residents, so they see no interest in forming such an alliance.”

— WILL THE PEASANTS BE UNDONE BY THEIR SUICIDAL SELF-CONFIDENCE? – NASZKOWSKA AGAIN IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “It is too early to assess the actual election chances of PSL today – much can happen in the near future. But what can destroy this party is its visible arrogance and disregard for the opinions of political commentators. (…) And now, when polls give the Party only 2-3% in a solo run for the Sejm, activists are heard mocking these forecasts. But as we know, pride goes before a fall.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31704687,trzecia-droga-donikad-sojusz-holowni-i-kosiniaka-kamysza-dogorywa.html

— WE WILL PAY A NEW TAX ON HEATING HOMES WITH COAL AND GAS. THEY HAVE ALREADY ANNOUNCED THE DATE. THIS IS ANOTHER FINANCIAL CATASTROPHE FOR MILLIONS OF POLES – WRITES FORSAL: “Now we have a continuation of draining our wallets. The European Union is introducing a new carbon dioxide emission tax. For the average Kowalski, who is not yet zero-emission, this will mean an increase in heating bills by as much as several dozen percent. The average household in Poland emits about 6 tons of carbon dioxide annually. This would translate into an additional cost of around PLN 1200 per year, or about PLN 100 per month – writes dziennik.pl, with the caveat that these are preliminary estimates and the final amounts may change.”
https://forsal.pl/gospodarka/aktualnosci/artykuly/9742431,zaplacimy-nowy-podatek-od-ogrzewania-domow-weglem-i-gazem-date-juz-p.html

— THE GOVERNMENT IS NOT INCREASING THE TAX-FREE AMOUNT AND PIT BRACKETS TO INCREASE STATE BUDGET REVENUES. FOR TAXPAYERS, THIS IS A REAL, SIGNIFICANT LOSS – THIS YEAR IT MAY REACH ALMOST PLN 12 BILLION. EVEN THE LOWEST PAID – THOSE EARNING MINIMUM WAGE – HAD TO START PAYING PIT – ANNA CIEŚLAK-WRÓBLEWSKA IN RZ: “The question is whether Donald Tusk's cabinet should revalue the PIT brackets and tax-free amount as soon as possible? From the perspective of the average Pole, of course, yes. – And for inflation to be neutral with respect to the PIT paid, the brackets should be automatically indexed by the inflation rate – indicates Marcin Mrowiec. – Tax brackets should reflect the rising cost of living, be correlated with a certain minimum level of income, which the state should not tax – he adds.”
https://www.rp.pl/budzet-i-podatki/art41825021-ile-kosztuje-zamrozona-kwota-wolna-to-juz-grube-miliardy

— BIRTHDAYS: Krzysztof Mroziewicz (turning 80!), Łukasz Grass, Marcin Cieślak, Wiola Paprocka, Błażej Lenkowski, Adam Rogacki.


Łukasz Mężyk