state of play: 02/12/2025

STATE OF PLAY: Oko.press: "Year of Breakthrough" Without a Breakthrough. Tusk's Plan Mixes Righteous Slogans with Demagoguery

Łukasz Mężyk

— "YEAR OF BREAKTHROUGH" WITHOUT A BREAKTHROUGH. TUSK'S ECONOMIC PLAN MIXES RIGHTEOUS SLOGANS WITH DEMAGOGUERY – JAKUB SZYMCZAK IN OKO.PRESS: “If investments in Poland reach PLN 650 billion in 2025, it will be no breakthrough. According to GUS data, in 2023, it was PLN 604 billion. Data for 2024 is not yet available, although it will certainly be more than in 2023. With inflation at 3.7% in 2024 and around 4-5% in 2025, PLN 650 billion should not impress anyone. If inflation this year were 4%, then PLN 604 billion in investments from 2023, increased by the inflation level in 2024 and 2025, would amount to… PLN 651 billion. The Prime Minister says it will be closer to PLN 700 billion. However, it is still difficult to call this a breakthrough. According to the 2025 budget assumptions, GDP is to be PLN 3.98 trillion. At a conference at the WSE headquarters, the Minister of Finance said that the prospects are good and growth may be higher than initially assumed. Let's raise this value to 4 trillion. Then PLN 650 billion would be 16.25% of our GDP next year, and PLN 700 billion – 17.5%.”

— IT LOOKS LIKE RAFAŁ BRZOSKA MAY HAVE BEEN DRAGGED INTO AN INTRA-COALITION GAME BETWEEN KO AND PSL – SZYMCZAK CONTINUES IN OKO: “So it looks like Rafał Brzoska may have been dragged into an intra-coalition game between KO and PSL. If deregulation were a priority for the entire government, the deregulation package could contain precisely the solutions Donald Tusk wants to pursue. For now, the package is considered too conservative, and the Ministry of Finance is unwilling to agree to it anyway.”
https://oko.press/rok-przelomu-bez-przelomu-plan-gospodarczy-tuska

— "YEAR OF BREAKTHROUGH" IS BETTER THAN NOTHING. ECONOMISTS ARE SKEPTICAL ABOUT DONALD TUSK'S GOVERNMENT'S PLANS – PIOTR SKWIROWSKI IN RZ: “Economists can barely hide their dissatisfaction, not to say disappointment, with the Prime Minister's announcements. – These PLN 650-700 billion are actually at the level of investment volume consistent with most economists' forecasts for this year. We expected investment outlays at this level. This would provide a small increase in the investment rate relative to GDP, with a year-on-year dynamic in the double digits, but resulting mainly from the low base of last year. So there are no revelations here – assessed Janusz Jankowiak, chief economist of the Polish Business Council, in an interview with 'Rzeczpospolita'.”
https://www.rp.pl/gospodarka/art41793971-rok-przelomu-lepszy-niz-nic-ekonomisci-sceptycznie-o-planach-rzadu-donalda-tuska

— ENTREPRENEURS AND OTHER SELF-EMPLOYED, DON'T POP THE CHAMPAGNE. YOUR LIVES WON'T CHANGE SO QUICKLY – LESZEK KOSTRZEWSKI IN GW: “Prime Minister Donald Tusk, with the support of entrepreneur Rafał Brzoska, wants to make life easier for entrepreneurs and the self-employed. However, I can bet that despite the Prime Minister's sincerest intentions and Brzoska's efforts, deeper changes are impossible in the current political landscape.”

— HOW IT WAS WITH HEALTH CONTRIBUTIONS – KOSTRZEWSKI CONTINUES IN GW: “The example of changes in health contributions perfectly illustrates how contradictory the positions of the coalition groups are regarding regulations for entrepreneurs.”
https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,147880,316833,przedsiebiorcy-i-inni-samozatrudnieni-nie-otwierajcie-szampanow.html

— WITHOUT A REAL CHANGE IN THE STATE'S OPERATING PHILOSOPHY, DEREGULATION MAY BECOME ANOTHER QUIXOTIC BATTLE OR A TEMPORARY THAW THAT EASILY TURNS INTO A FROZEN WINTER – TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ: “Business has received this challenge with great enthusiasm, the only question is whether it realizes that it is facing not isolated changes, but a deep system that is like mown grass – it grows back quickly. One can look at these announcements with hope, but there's no point in being naive. Without a real change in the state's operating philosophy, deregulation may become another quixotic battle or a temporary thaw that easily turns into a frozen winter.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art41793551-tomasz-pietryga-deregulacja-czyli-w-poszukiwaniu-swietego-graala

— A NEW GIFT FOR DEVELOPERS FROM KRZYSZTOF PASZYK'S MINISTRY? – JAKUB CHEŁMIŃSKI IN GW: “Will developers be able to build on arable fields in cities? The Ministry of Development, headed by Krzysztof Paszyk from PSL, has presented a draft law that will shake up the real estate market in Poland. – Politically, it's a win for developers – assesses an expert.”
https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,31683643,nowy-prezent-dla-deweloperow-od-ministerstwa-krzysztofa-paszyka.html

— IBRIS POLL FOR RZ:
KO 33.5% (+3 pp)
PiS 29.3% (-3.9 pp)
Konfederacja 11.6% (-0.8 pp)
Trzecia Droga 10.1% (+1.1 pp)
Lewica 8.3% (+2 pp)
Razem 1.5% (+0.3 pp)
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41792571-sondaz-ko-wraca-na-pozycje-lidera-konfederacja-utrzymuje-trzecie-miejsce-w-tle-kampania-prezydencka

— KAROL NAWROCKI'S FOREIGN TRIPS COST TAXPAYERS A TOTAL OF PLN 800,000. – DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “He was in New York, New Orleans, and Chicago. He spent the May holidays in South Africa, during which he visited Johannesburg and Pretoria. He also visited Mexico City, Buenos Aires, and Rosario, where he opened the exhibition 'Samaritans from Markowa' dedicated to the Ulma family.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31683839,nawrocki-na-hawajach-kandydat-pis-jako-szef-muzeum-ii-wojny.html

— "HE ADMITTED THAT IN WARSAW HE SOMETIMES SPENDS ONE, SOMETIMES TWO DAYS A WEEK." PIS CRITICIZES TRZASKOWSKI FOR DELEGATIONS
https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/02/12/przyznal-ze-w-warszawie-to-bywa-jeden-czasami-dwa-dni-w-tygodniu-pis-wytyka-trzaskowskiemu-delegacje/

— PAWLAK: PSL HAS MANY OPPORTUNITIES, BUT I DON'T KNOW IF IT'S UTILIZING THEM. MORE COULD BE ACHIEVED – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/02/12/

— ACCORDING TO INTERNAL PIS RESEARCH, 10% OF THE PARTY'S VOTERS ARE UNAWARE OF THE EXISTENCE OF PIS'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE – JACEK GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK: “According to internal PiS research, 10% of the party's voters are unaware of the existence of PiS's presidential candidate, Karol Nawrocki. These alarming figures were presented by Jarosław Kaczyński at a meeting with PiS MPs. He also berated MPs for supporting candidates other than Nawrocki and ordered a party-wide mobilization. – We must be everywhere – says a PiS MP.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/alarmistyczne-badania-pis-oto-przyczyna-dla-ktorej-nawrocki-jest-w-tyle/bpeb493,452ad802

— AGNIESZKA DZIEMIANOWICZ-BĄK SAID THAT NO WORK IS BEING DONE IN HER MINISTRY TO INTRODUCE CHANGES TO THE RULES FOR PAYING 800 PLUS – INTERIA: “Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk, during her visit to Trójka radio on Wednesday (February 12), indicated that the data does not favor Rafał Trzaskowski. The head of the Ministry of Family, Labor, and Social Policy emphasized that no work is being done in her ministry to introduce changes to the rules for paying 800 plus. The reasons are clear. The minister added that she does not know whether Rafał Trzaskowski was mistaken when formulating the thesis about unemployed Ukrainians receiving 800 plus, invented the problem, or 'is doing it for any other purpose', however, the data available to the labor ministry clearly shows that the majority of this nation consists of people who work, pay contributions, and pay taxes in Poland.”
https://biznes.interia.pl/praca/news-niepracujacy-ukraincy-pobieraja-800-plus-dziemianowicz-bak-t,nId,7910523

— IT IS EASIER TO SOLVE FICTITIOUS PROBLEMS, SO IN THE CAMPAIGN WE TALK ABOUT "UNGRAATEFUL UKRAINIANS" – JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Studies on the social reception of war refugees from Ukraine in Poland, conducted regularly every six months since the beginning of the war by Dr. Robert Staniszewski from the University of Warsaw, showed that even in the spring of 2022, when the level of sympathy for Ukrainians attacked by Putin was highest, Poles did not accept refugees from Ukraine being covered by programs like 500 plus. PiS – unusually for this party, made a good decision then, against poll numbers. By withdrawing from it, both major parties are currently following public sentiment. The problem is that the proposal 'let's take away 800 plus from unemployed Ukrainians' is a terrible state policy, mobilizing populist emotions around a non-existent problem.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/majmurek-fikcyjne-problemy-latwiej-rozwiazac-wiec-w-kampanii-rozmawiamy-o-niewdziecznych-ukraincach/

— BIRTHDAYS: Marek Magierowski (53) Bix Aliu, Jan Kidawa-Błoński, Rafał Baniak, Szymon Gutkowski, Krzysztof Strzałkowski.


Łukasz Mężyk