state of play: 02/01/2025

STATE OF PLAY: Kublik Questions Ziobro's Arrest for Lateness; Siedlecka Notes Ziobro's Strategic Success; Matczak on the "Elite" vs. "Sovereign" Divide; Nawrocki Urges Bill Presentations

Łukasz Mężyk

— BRING YOUR ELECTRICITY AND GAS BILLS TO MEETINGS – APPEALS KAROL NAWROCKI: "Bring your electricity and gas bills to our meetings. The rulers must immediately adopt my laws reducing VAT on energy. Let them finally deal with the real problems of Poles, instead of building luxurious lives with their money!"
https://x.com/NawrockiKn/status/1885583814824542314

— RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI AT 4 PM IN WEJHEROWO.

— KAROL NAWROCKI HAS SIX MEETINGS IN THE ŁÓDŹ REGION: https://x.com/Nawrocki25/status/1885383216141353402

— REPUTABLE SURVEY FIRMS DID NOT PREDICT ELECTION RESULTS. TRUMP WAS SUPPOSED TO TIE WITH HARRIS IN ALL SEVEN SO-CALLED SWING STATES. BUT HE WON DECISIVELY – AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: "I remind you what happened in the United States. Reputable firms did not predict the election results. Trump was supposed to tie with Harris in all seven so-called swing states. But he won decisively. And he is the 47th president. (...) Sociologists already know that Republicans are more likely than Democrats to refuse to talk to pollsters. Because they don't trust the media, they don't trust institutions, they simply don't want to participate. And now researchers should estimate how this group will vote."

— IT IS KNOWN THAT REFUSALS ARE INCREASING – THERE USED TO BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT, NOW SOMETIMES EVEN 20 – KUBLIK FURTHER IN GW: "In Poland too, supporters of the right are more likely to refuse pollsters. And it is also known that refusals are increasing – there used to be less than 10 percent, now sometimes even 20. That's why I appeal once again: let's rely only on the results from firms certified by the Organization of Market and Opinion Research Companies."
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31654507,agnieszka-kublik-jak-to-mozliwe-ze-wyniki-sondazy-tak-sie.html

— THE STORY WITH SUMMONING ZIOBRO TO THE COMMISSION, AND EARLIER THE SERIAL WITH ROMANOWSKI'S ARREST, ONLY AMPLIFIES THE IMPRESSION OF CLUMSINESS AND INCOMPETENCE – MARCIN DUMA IN AN INTERVIEW WITH DANIEL DROB IN GAZETA.PL: "Today, moderate voters on both sides have the impression that they are being fed some kind of disgusting political pap because politicians have nothing else to offer them. The story with summoning Ziobro to the commission, and earlier the serial with Romanowski's arrest, only amplifies this impression of clumsiness and incompetence."

— LACK OF EFFECTIVENESS IS A BURDEN FOR THE RULERS TODAY – DUMA FURTHER AT DROB'S IN GAZETA.PL: "Recently, Magdalena Biejat appeared on one of the mainstream television channels. The conversation turned, among other things, to abortion; the Lewica candidate declared that fulfilling this electoral commitment from 2023 would be key for her as president. The discussion heated up with the question of why it hasn't been resolved yet, until finally the journalist couldn't stand it and asked what influence the presidency actually has on this matter, since no majority could be found for it in the Sejm. This lack of effectiveness is a burden for the rulers today."

— PEOPLE SAID: "WHAT DUDA?! THEY CAN'T EVEN PASS THIS LAW THEMSELVES, WHICH DUDA MIGHT VETO" – DUMA FURTHER AT DROB'S IN GAZETA.PL: "Then the coalition could say: everything is ready, we are just waiting for the president from our camp – we are doing this and that with neo-judges, we are acting like this and that on abortion. Meanwhile, all this is being born in terrible pain, projects are lying somewhere in officials' desks, or are being 'frozen' in parliamentary committees, and citizens do not have the feeling that something is really happening. This was evident during our informal interviews. People said: 'What Duda?! They can't even pass this law themselves, which Duda might veto'."
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,31660062,szef-ibris-o-nastrojach-ludzie-mowili-jaki-duda-przeciez.html

— BOTH SIDES: THE COMMISSION AND ZIOBRO ACHIEVED WHAT THEY WANTED. ONLY ZIOBRO MORE SO – EWA SIEDLECKA ON TYGODNIK POLITYKA'S PORTAL: "Both sides: the former Minister of Justice/Prosecutor General in the PiS governments, and the extraordinary parliamentary committee for the Pegasus affair, achieved what they wanted. Only Ziobro did so more so. It looked as if the commission did not want Zbigniew Ziobro to appear before it. Because he would have refused to testify anyway, and as part of a free statement, he could have delivered – likely prepared – a fiery self-praise, as well as an indictment against Donald Tusk's government. Ziobro, on the other hand, did not want to be led like a lamb to the slaughter, acting as a 'softie' or a 'pushover'.
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2287657,1,spektakl-z-ziobra-i-komisja-jaki-to-mialo-sens-i-co-jeszcze-mozna-z-tym-zrobic

— IT CANNOT BE JUSTIFIED. DO YOU WANT TO PUT ZIOBRO IN ARREST FOR LACK OF PUNCTUALITY, NOT FOR BREAKING THE LAW? – AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: "The parliamentary investigation committee into the Pegasus affair – one of the biggest in the Third Polish Republic – did not question Zbigniew Ziobro. This cannot be justified. Do you want to put Ziobro in prison for lateness, not for breaking the law?"

— SERIOUSLY? DO YOU REALLY WANT TO FUEL THE PIX FAITHFUL LIKE THIS? AND TV REPUBLIKA VIEWERS? – KUBLIK FURTHER: "The committee even claims that it is considering whether to question Ziobro in the Białołęka detention center. Seriously? Do you really want to fuel the PiS faithful like this? And TV Republika viewers?"
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31658878,komisja-sledcza-ds-pegasusa-zagrala-wedlug-scenariusza-napisanego.html

— TV REPUBLIKA WON, ZIOBRO WON. THE PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE AND THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION LOST – AGNIESZKA KUBLIK FURTHER: "There were no questions, but Ziobro, without any counter-argument, attacked the investigation committee live, standing before dozens of cameras and microphones. In short, Ziobro played a comedy according to his script, and the investigation committee a drama according to Ziobro's script. Why did the committee allow him to do that? TV Republika won, Ziobro won. The parliamentary committee and the October 15 Coalition lost."
​​https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31659361,ziobro-odegral-komedie-komisja-sledcza-dramat.html

— JANUARY ENDS WITH THE COMPROMISE OF THE POLISH STATE AND THE ENTIRE POLITICAL CLASS – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: "Ziobro arrived at the Sejm effectively twenty minutes later than indicated in the summons. Thus, the commission showed that it is not interested in hearing the former Minister of Justice, but in a political brawl. Now the show will continue, the court must consider the motion, the Sejm will deliberate on consent for arrest, and Ziobro will continue to play the martyr. All that's left is to buy popcorn and watch. It's hard to resist the impression that both the questioned and the questioners are equally bad. It's just a pity for Poland."
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41754031-michal-szuldrzynski-bajka-o-zbyszku-policjantach-i-dobrej-wrozce

— IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING THE SAME BREAK FOR DEMOCRACY AS BIDEN'S TERM BETWEEN TRUMP'S TERMS – ERNEST SKALSKI IN GW: "It is possible that we are experiencing the same break for democracy as Biden's term between Trump's terms. Trzaskowski's defeat in May would be a game-changer. The bright future, announced at Tusk's marches in June and October 2023, is already a hellishly difficult present day. This is a regularity: no power has ever been able to do everything it promised anywhere."

— EVEN THE MOST REASONABLE EXPLANATIONS WHY IT HASN'T HAPPENED YET AND WHY SOMETHING CANNOT HAPPEN MAKE A BAD IMPRESSION; IN POLAND, MANY PEOPLE TREAT ELECTIONS AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO DEMONSTRATE THEIR FEELINGS, INCLUDING THROUGH ABSENCE – SKALSKI FURTHER IN GW: "However, even the most reasonable explanations why it hasn't happened yet and why something cannot happen, make a bad impression. Then, disappointed voters stop voting for it. Especially in Poland, where many people treat elections as an opportunity to demonstrate their feelings, including through absence, rather than as a tool to shape reality. This is how Trump returned to power, and this is how Kaczyński can return, and this – I repeat – soon."
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31655257,pauza-na-demokracje-czyli-pis-moze-wrocic.html

— FOR MANY YEARS HE DID NOT HIDE HIS VIEWS, BUT ONLY NOW HAS HE DIRECTLY INVOLVED WOŚP IN POLITICS – PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ: "For many years he did not hide his views, but only now has he directly involved WOŚP (Great Orchestra of Christmas Charity) in politics. And charity should not be a tool for political agitation. Such charity definitely stops uniting the community."

— A PROCESS OF SPECIFIC FUSION OF WOŚP WITH THE STATE HAS BEGUN – ZAREMBA FURTHER IN RZ: "Would he have done this if the right had been more lenient towards him earlier? It's hard to say. But now a process of specific fusion of WOŚP with the state has begun. Donald Tusk, as prime minister, considered Owsiak's foundation appropriate for organizing aid for flood victims. In turn, the state-owned company Orlen committed to donating one zloty from each coffee purchased at its gas stations. This means that a private aid institution has suddenly become a beneficiary of a kind of para-tax imposed on the consumption of Poles."

— TODAY EVERYTHING IS BECOMING POLITICS, AND MORE SO THE MORE BASE, CALCULATED KIND. THERE IS LESS AND LESS OF ONE THING IN IT: THE COMMON GOOD – ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION IN RZ: "Jerzy Owsiak, through his actions, confirms old conspiracy theories. Charity has truly become less important in these spectacles than – in various aspects – his career. I can at most insist that his good intentions were at the root of all this. So what does that change? Today, everything is becoming politics, and more so the more base, calculated kind. There is less and less of one thing in it: the common good."
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art41747731-piotr-zaremba-polityczna-puszka-wielkiej-orkiestry

— I AM NOT MOVED BY THE NEW OWSIAK WAR; I HAVE LONG CONSIDERED HIM A POLITICIAN AND APPLY THAT CRITERION TO HIM, AND HE CERTAINLY WOULDN'T MIND, ESPECIALLY SINCE HE HAS COMPLETELY REVEALED HIS HANDS WITH THE PRE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN "WE WILL DEFEAT EVIL" – KATARYNA IN RZ: "Therefore, Owsiak's new war does not move me; I have long considered him a politician and apply that criterion to him, and he certainly would not mind, especially since he has completely revealed his hand with the pre-election campaign 'We will defeat evil,' where 'evil' was sepsis, but it was written in such small letters that some considered the campaign to be typical electioneering, although conducted with the money of a charitable organization with a rather specific concept of 'uniting Poles.'
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art41747791-kataryna-zakrzyczec-trudne-pytania

— THERE ARE THOSE ON THE RIGHT WHO CRITICIZE OWSIAK FROM REASONABLE POSITIONS – MARCIN MATCZAK IN GW: "Today, Trump, posing as a strict family man, is winning against Kamala Harris, who presents herself as a schoolmate. On Polish TikTok, which shapes the views of future voters, the mustachioed uncle running with a fire extinguisher is more popular than the rock musician in red glasses running with a microphone. Moreover, this uncle deliberately wears a mustache and beard to look old, although he is 14 years younger than the rock musician."

— SUPPORT FOR LEWICA CANDIDATES IS NEGLIGIBLE, WHICH SHOWS THE DIVIDE BETWEEN POLISH "ELITES" AND THE POLISH "SOVEREIGN." IN THE MEDIA AND UNIVERSITIES, PROGRESSIVE AS ALWAYS; AT THE BALLOT BOX, INCREASINGLY CONSERVATIVE – PROF. MATCZAK FURTHER IN GW: "Look at the presidential candidates – on the wave of fear of PiS, which will eventually weaken, Trzaskowski is still the leader, meaning, in simplification, a vision of freedom close to Owsiak. But he is followed by almost exclusively right-wing candidates, or at least much more conservative than him. Support for Lewica candidates is negligible, which shows the divide between Polish 'elites' and the Polish 'sovereign.' In the media and universities, progressive as always; at the ballot box, increasingly conservative. After all, we have America here too!"
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31648359,marcin-matczak-sa-na-prawicy-tacy-ktorzy-krytykuja-owsiaka.html

— THE SCANDAL MAY LEAD TO THE AFD CATCHING UP TO THE CDU BEFORE THE ELECTIONS, WHICH MODERATE VOTERS ARE ABANDONING – MARTA KOZŁOWSKA IN OKO.PRESS: "The losses of the CDU/CSU were small, and no party could threaten its leading position. All this changed in the second half of January. After the events of the past week, which shook the entire country and led to a huge scandal, the first polls began to show a decline in support for the CDU/CSU to 29% and a jump to 23% for the AfD. We will see the full effect in the polls in about two weeks, but if the trend continues, they could equalize. We will certainly see volatility in support and a sudden opening of electoral decisions."

— HOWEVER, THE STATEMENT BY MICHEL FRIEDMAN, A WELL-KNOWN JEWISH PUBLICIST AND LONG-TIME VICE-CHAIRMAN OF THE CENTRAL COUNCIL OF JEWS IN GERMANY, ABOUT THE DECISION TO LEAVE THE CDU CIRCULATED IN THE MEDIA – KOZŁOWSKA FURTHER IN OKO: "Reports of enormous dissatisfaction within the party itself also appeared in the media – which, apart from the aforementioned statements, the Christian Democrats have managed to keep out of the media for now. However, the statement by Michel Friedman, a well-known Jewish publicist and long-time vice-chairman of the Central Council of Jews in Germany, about the decision to leave the CDU circulated in the media. Two cases of returning the Order of Merit of the Federal Republic of Germany (the highest civilian decoration in Germany) in protest also resonated widely: by Luigi Toscano, a photographer known for his project of portraits of Holocaust survivors, and by Albrecht Weinberg, one of the survivors, who has been involved for years as a witness to history in Holocaust education."

— MERZ LIKE VON PAPEN – KOZŁOWSKA FURTHER IN OKO: "If there is indeed further strengthening of right-wing extremists in Germany in the future, or even their seizure of power, history may judge the Christian Democrats and Merz very harshly."
https://oko.press/armagedon-w-bundestagu-czy-to-punkt-zwrotny-niemieckich-wyborow

— POLITICALLY MARGINALIZING GRZEGORZ BRAUN IS MORE LIKELY TO HELP THAN HARM KONFEDERACJA. CONSERVATIVES IN PARTICULAR SHOULD FIGHT HIS BARBARISM. THEY SEEM TO HAVE JUST STARTED TO DO SO – PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA.

— NORMAL PEOPLE WITHOUT A SENSE OF EMBARRASSMENT – ZAREMBA FURTHER: "Of course, subsequent polls will reveal the extent of this lasting consistency. For now, one can get the impression that 'normal people,' especially younger ones, lured by slogans of economic freedom and criticism of EU bureaucracy, may choose this formation without a sense of embarrassment. It's a shame it happened so late."
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-grzegorz-braun-czyli-dzieje-szalenstwa,nId,7903490

— 19 YEARS AGO (on Sunday), the leaders of PiS, Samoobrona RP, and LPR signed the so-called stabilization pact. The ceremony was broadcast live exclusively by Telewizja Trwam, in response to which the other media refused to participate in the re-signing of the pact, which was later staged for them.

— BIRTHDAYS: Arkadiusz Myrcha, Joanna Senyszyn, Bogdan Rzońca. SUNDAY: Marcin Libicki, Piotr Naimski, Małgorzata Wypych, Roman Imielski.


Łukasz Mężyk