— “HARRIS ULTIMATELY WON IN THE USA”. JAKUBIAK ON LOW POLL NUMBERS – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/01/29

— TRZASKOWSKI 39%, NAWROCKI 27%, MENTZEN 9%, HOŁOWNIA 6.5%, BIEJAT 4%, STANOWSKI 2.5%, BRAUN 1.4%, JAKUBIAK 1.2%, ZANDBERG 1%, HARD TO SAY 8.5% – IBRIS POLL FOR TYGODNIK POLITYKA.

— EVERY THIRD VOTER FOR THIRD WAY FROM 2023 AND EVERY FIFTH VOTER FOR CONFEDERATION LOOK FAVORABLY UPON NAWROCKI, WHO PARTICULARLY COURTS THEM WITH A STRONG ANTI-UKRAINIAN STANCE – MARCIN DUMA AND RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Where should he seek votes beyond the PiS electorate, which has not yet been fully mobilized? Every third voter for Third Way from 2023 and every fifth voter for Confederation look favorably upon Nawrocki, whose campaign particularly courts them with a strong anti-Ukrainian stance. However, this is a meager hunting ground, only a few percent. It’s evident that the candidate's freshness effect hasn't been utilized, and hardly anyone believed in his 'civic' appeal. Nawrocki's negative electorate is as high as 55%. From this perspective, one can speculate whether it wouldn't have been more beneficial for PiS to field Czarnik, Błaszczak, or even Morawiecki, as at least there would be no problem mobilizing their own electorate. Unless Nawrocki can somehow be restarted, though it's difficult to imagine.”

— WE THEREFORE ESTIMATE TRZASKOWSKI’S TOTAL POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST ROUND AT 45%, AND WITH THE CURRENT DYNAMICS, IT’S UNLIKELY WE'LL BE ABLE TO EXTRACT MUCH MORE – DUMA AND KALUKIN FURTHER IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “For 37% of voters, he remains the main option, and for another 8%, a probable one. We therefore estimate his total potential in the first round at 45%, and with the current dynamics, it’s unlikely we'll be able to extract much more. He is supported almost entirely by KO voters from the last parliamentary elections and – not surprisingly – about 90% of Left supporters. However, the electorate of Third Way from that time proves to be ambivalent; in this group, only 40% are considering supporting Trzaskowski in the first round (let's assume these are mostly 'tactical' voters from October 15th), while half do not consider this possibility.”

— NAWROCKI’S UPPER POTENTIAL IS 35% – DUMA AND KALUKIN FURTHER: “In their field of interest, Sławomir Mentzen and Marek Jakubiak most frequently appear for now. Another 10% of voters consider Nawrocki as a potential option, currently considered 'softly.' We therefore estimate his potential at just under 35%, which doesn't give him much hope for a first-round victory.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2287027,1,sondaz-prezydencki-polityki-trzaskowski-sie-odbil-ale-musi-uwazac-gdzie-jest-sufit-nawrockiego.read

— WHY DID KATARZYNA KOTULA DEPART FROM THE TRUTH SO MANY TIMES? WITHOUT APOLOGIES, SHE WON'T REGAIN CREDIBILITY – AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “Minister for Equality Katarzyna Kotula fabricates too much. Although the matter is rather minor, it could impact her credibility. Katarzyna Kotula is a Left activist, the Minister for Equality in Prime Minister Donald Tusk's cabinet. Journalists have discovered three errors in her biography. In essence, they are minor, but because there are several of them and they were consistently repeated by the minister, they created the impression of a kind of systemic lie intended to build an untrue image of Kotula.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31648713,dlaczego-katarzyna-kotula-tyle-razy-mijala-sie-z-prawda-bez.html

— ALL POLLS – WHETHER FOR PARLIAMENTARY OR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS – SHOW A MUCH WEAKER MOBILIZATION THAN IN OCTOBER 2023 AMONG PROGRESSIVE RESIDENTS OF LARGE CITIES, VOTERS UNDER FORTY, AND WOMEN – ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI IN GW: “All polls – whether concerning parliamentary or presidential elections – show a much weaker mobilization than in October 2023 among voters belonging to those groups where democrats (KO, TD, and Left combined) achieved their highest support in the 2023 elections – these are mostly progressive residents of large cities, voters under forty, and women. This decline is a consequence of unfulfilled promises regarding abortion, civil partnerships, a secular state, and too slow accountability processes.”

— NOW THE COUNTRYSIDE WOULD BE MORE WILLING TO GO TO THE POLLS. REVERSING THESE UNFAVORABLE PROPORTIONS IS TRZASKOWSKI’S MAIN TASK – MACHOWSKI FURTHER IN GW: “In cities with over 100,000 inhabitants, 80% of residents voted in 2023; in rural areas – 71%. Now, the countryside would be more willing to go to the polls – declared turnout there is 6 percentage points higher than in large cities. Reversing these unfavorable proportions is Rafał Trzaskowski’s main task in the election campaign. He needs to choose his words and gestures wisely. Participating in the Thanksgiving Service at the Temple of Divine Providence or the enthronement of the new metropolitan (as urged by Father Kazimierz Sowa) would likely harm rather than help here. Because this is not the kind of gestures the majority of his already declared or potential supporters expect from Trzaskowski.”

— THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TRZASKOWSKI IS NOT TO WIN OVER VOTERS IDENTIFYING WITH THE CHURCH, BUT TO MAXIMALLY MOBILIZE THOSE WHO DO NOT FEEL SUCH AN IDENTIFICATION – CONCLUSION OF MACHOWSKI’S POLEMIC WITH FATHER KAZIMIERZ SOWA:
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31649538,gdzie-trzaskowski-powinien-szukac-swoich-wyborcow-polemika.html

— HE CAN “BITE THE GRASS,” BUT HE IS NOT A POLITICAL PREDATOR, HE PREFERS TO LISTEN TO JAZZ AND READ BOOKS. WILL HE MANAGE TO WIN THE ELECTION BY MUFFLING HIS OWN VIEWS? – PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “One must admit that Trzaskowski, not possessing the nature of a political predator, is certainly a candidate made for the presidency characteristic of present-day Poland, where the head of state does not aspire to the role of a political leader within their own milieu. He is simultaneously aware that he must win, as the stakes are enormous. The May elections mean an existential moment not only for him but also for the entire ruling camp. His defeat would not conclude the fight to reverse the changes imposed during the PiS era. Therefore, he will certainly – as he has proven many times in crisis moments – ‘bite the grass’ until the very end.”
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/rafal-trzaskowski-zrepozycjonowany-jakie-ma-szanse-wygrac-wybory-prezydenckie-189593

— WHO IS MORE ANTI-UKRAINIAN? THE CANDIDATES’ BIDDING WAR CONTINUES – KAMILA BARANOWSKA IN INTERIA: “Today, Rafał Trzaskowski’s campaign staff seem to be paying closer attention to anti-Ukrainian sentiments and are trying to ride this wave. Even at the cost of slight dissatisfaction from his current supporters, especially those from large cities, who have accused him of shifting too far to the right. – What emerges from surveys on Ukrainian issues is horrifying. The sentiment is completely different than two years ago. This is a different Poland and different Poles. Rafał cannot argue with reality, because he won’t win against it himself – an experienced PO politician recently told Łukasz Rogojsz. He added that from a campaign perspective, accusations of inconsistency are less important than hitting the sentiments and expectations of voters, not just those from the core of Civic Platform.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/wybory/prezydenckie/news-kto-jest-bardziej-antyukrainski-licytacja-kandydatow-trwa,nId,7901539

— THE SPRING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ARE THE LAST CHANCE FOR LIBERAL DEMOCRACY TO RECOGNIZE ITS OWN MISTAKES, DRAW CONCLUSIONS, AND PROPOSE SOMETHING MORE ATTRACTIVE – PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: “Polish politics is subject to the exact same phenomena. The list of savior fathers is growing. Perhaps the spring presidential elections are the last chance for liberal democracy to recognize its own mistakes, draw conclusions, and propose something more attractive than what all the Jokers of the West currently offer.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-falszywi-ojcowie,nId,7900102

— THESE ELECTIONS WILL BE ABOUT OUR POCKETS. WILL TUSK HELP TRZASKOWSKI? – DOMINIKA DŁUGOSZ IN NEWSWEEK: “The research conducted for Onet shows something indescribable. Poles want to hear that candidates have a plan for rising prices of everything. Starting from grocery shopping to housing. Other topics are decidedly taking a back seat. – This campaign will not be about security, but about prices and the economy – said Rafał Trzaskowski’s people when the Warsaw mayor was clashing with Radosław Sikorski. The only thing is that they seem to have forgotten about it, because apart from limiting the 800+ benefit for foreigners – also very high in the respondents’ expectations – none of the other topics have particularly broken through yet. The question is whether the government – or rather the prime minister – has any idea to help the candidate somehow with their policies.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/te-wybory-beda-o-naszych-kieszeniach-czy-tusk-pomoze-trzaskowskiemu-analiza/tnmcdne

— BIRTHDAYS: Olga Tokarczuk turns 63, Jan Pospieszalski, Robert Bogdański, Sylwia Spurek, Jarosław Kuźniar.