— CBOS: SITUATION IN THE COUNTRY IS HEADED:

IN A GOOD DIRECTION: 27% (-5 from December)
IN A BAD DIRECTION 54% (+4 from December)

— OCTOBER 2023, THE PIS ELECTION LOSS: good direction 33%, bad direction 51%.

— WILL THE ECONOMIC SITUATION IN POLAND OVER THE NEXT YEAR:

IMPROVE: 21% (-1)
WORSEN: 34% (+6)

— OCTOBER 2023: 25% will improve, 23% will worsen.
https://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/raporty_tekst.php?id=6952

— PIS +1.9, KO -0.8 — IN THE OPINIA24 POLL FOR GW – DESCRIBED BY AGNIESZKA KUBLIK: “KO and PiS are neck and neck. Civic Coalition garnered 31.3% support, Law and Justice – 31.1%. Previously, these two main parties had almost identical ratings in September of last year, then in October and November. But apart from those moments, Donald Tusk's Coalition had been ahead of Jarosław Kaczyński's United Right by a few percentage points.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31641483,nowy-sondaz-opinia24-ko-i-pis-znowu-blisko-siebie.html

— NAWROCKI IS RUNNING THE BEST CAMPAIGN – 29.9%, TRZASKOWSKI: 27.7%, MENTZEN 17.8% – UNITED SURVEYS FOR WP: “Participants of the latest United Surveys poll for Wirtualna Polska answered the question: Who, in your opinion, will run the best election campaign before the presidential elections? Surprisingly, the majority did not point to the leader of the election polls, which remains Rafał Trzaskowski, the Civic Coalition candidate. This time, the President of Warsaw was outranked by his main rival. According to Poles, Karol Nawrocki will best handle the presidential campaign. The candidate supported by PiS received 29.9% of respondents. Rafał Trzaskowski came in second, with his campaign capabilities appreciated by 27.7% of those surveyed. Sławomir Mentzen also maintained third place in this case. The Confederation candidate performs best in running an election campaign according to 17.8% of participants in the Wirtualna Polska survey.”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/sondaz-wp-kto-prowadzi-najlepsza-kampanie-zmiana-lidera-7117895075556160a

— TODAY WE ARE UPDATING THE FORECAST AND FOUR MONTHS BEFORE THE ELECTION, WE ARE SOUNDING THE ALARM FOR THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION – MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “Five months before the elections, we wrote that the assessments of the government and the situation in the country in analogous periods were worse only twice in the last 10 years, but the aversion to the rulers and general disenchantment had not yet reached alarm levels, although it had certainly crossed warning thresholds. Today, we are updating this forecast, and four months before the elections, we are sounding the alarm for the October 15 Coalition.”

— TO AVOID TURNING THE CANDIDATE INTO A MARKETING SHELL PRETENDING TO BE SOMEONE ELSE. WE OBSERVED THE RISKS OF THIS, FOR EXAMPLE, IN JACK KURON'S CAMPAIGN – FURTHER FROM DANIELEWSKI IN OKO: “However, for Trzaskowski, one of the significant problems remains the risk of overdosing on pragmatism. A coherent campaign strategy is one thing, and a politician's image, solidified over years, tasked with implementing that strategy is another. His change must be dosed reasonably, so as not to turn the candidate into a marketing shell pretending to be someone else. We observed the risks of this, for example, in Jacek Kuron's campaign in 1995, when the image of a populist tribune dressed in a denim shirt was replaced in the campaign by the image of a gentleman from Oxford dressed in stylish coats. With catastrophic results.”

— IT MAY TURN OUT THAT THE QUESTION "DO YOU WANT TO REMOVE THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION FROM POWER?" WILL BE MORE EFFECTIVE THAN "DO YOU WANT PIS TO RETURN TO POWER?" – FURTHER FROM DANIELEWSKI IN OKO: “Specifically, social sentiment in January has worsened for the third consecutive month, and for the third consecutive month, the number of government supporters has decreased. If this trend does not stop, it will become increasingly difficult for Trzaskowski's natural positioning of a second round as a plebiscite. It may turn out that the question 'Do you want to remove the October 15 Coalition from power?' will be more effective than 'Do you want PiS to return to power?'”

— THE SITUATION OF THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION CANDIDATES HAS ENTERED A PHASE OF RADICAL TURBULENCE – DANIELEWSKI STATES IN OKO: “In other words, the situation of the October 15 Coalition candidates has entered a phase of radical turbulence. For at least the next few weeks of the campaign (and perhaps even until its end), they will have to conduct it under the pressure of the alarm message 'Terrain Ahead'. This is especially true for Rafał Trzaskowski, who is playing for higher stakes than Szymon Hołownia and Magdalena Biejat, and who will simultaneously find it harder to credibly distance himself from the government.”
https://oko.press/koalicji-wlacza-sie-sygnal-terrain-ahead

— THE ICE AGE – OR WHY TRZASKOWSKI IS TURNING RIGHT, AND THE GOVERNMENT IS FREEZING LAWS – AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK AND NATALIA SAWKA IN OKO.PRESS: “Among the political strategists from Donald Tusk and Rafał Trzaskowski's circles, with whom OKO.press spoke, the prevailing belief is that the spirit of the times and politics today has the face of a right-wing populist. This will profoundly change both Trzaskowski's campaign and the next six months of the coalition's governance.”

— SOMEONE FROM TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMPAIGN TEAM CITES RESEARCH SHOWING THAT ABORTION IS NOT A PRIMARY CONCERN EVEN AMONG THE PROGRESSIVE ELECTORATE OF KO AND THE LEFT TODAY – FURTHER FROM SZCZĘŚNIAK AND SAWKA IN OKO: “Someone from Trzaskowski's campaign team cites research showing that abortion is not a primary concern even among the progressive electorate of KO and the Left today. 'Women want peace and more money in their wallets,' we hear. According to our interlocutor, despite the lack of legislation after 2023, the situation has changed, and women feel safer today. Previously, the media reported every few weeks about women being denied abortions, and even about women dying in maternity wards. Today – at least in media reports – this is absent.

— IN THE COMING WEEKS, THE KO CANDIDATE WILL MAKE GESTURES TOWARDS THE PROGRESSIVE ELECTORATE. 'THE DIRECTION WILL CHANGE' – STILL SZCZĘŚNIAK AND SAWKA IN OKO: 'There is no law, they haven't agreed, but we have residual hope that some law will pass,' a Trzaskowski campaign aide refers to women's sentiments. He also announces that in the coming weeks, the KO candidate will make gestures towards the progressive electorate. 'The direction will change.' After all, he needs to win over ten million votes.”
https://oko.press/trzaskowski-na-prawo-a-rzad-zamraza-ustawy

— IT'S BAD! DONALD TUSK'S GOVERNMENT COULD SINK RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI – JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “No matter how much the Mayor of Warsaw distances himself from the decisions of Tusk's cabinet, he cannot detach himself from his natural environment. Trzaskowski is the vice-chairman of Civic Platform, the largest ruling party, and by necessity endorses its political decisions. This means that the KO candidate, while maintaining a distance from the government, cannot negate it; he must remain natural. Now it is up to the ruling coalition to ensure it is not a millstone around Rafał Trzaskowski's neck.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art41723511-jacek-nizinkiewicz-jest-zle-rzad-donalda-tuska-moze-zatopic-rafala-trzaskowskiego

— I KNOW MORE AND MORE PEOPLE ARE ASKING THEMSELVES WHAT TRZASKOWSKI'S VIEWS REALLY ARE AND WHETHER HE HAS ANY UNWAVERING CONVICTIONS AT ALL – KRZYSZTOF VARGA IN NEWSWEEK: “Rafał Trzaskowski's campaign deeply saddens me, and his famous dinner with Zenek Martyniuk plunged me into an epochal gloom. I know there are more important campaign issues for Trzaskowski than dinner with Zenek. I know that his liberal electorate is increasingly dissatisfied with Trzaskowski for cozying up to the right-wing electorate. I know that more and more people are asking themselves what Trzaskowski's views really are and whether he possesses any unwavering convictions at all. And I also know that many are disappointed that Radosław Sikorski was not chosen.”

— TRZASKOWSKI IS LIKE A TRAM TO WILANÓW – A MODERN, SHINY, LOW-FLOOR VEHICLE SPEEDING TOWARDS A MODEL SETTLEMENT FOR THE LIBERAL MIDDLE CLASS. BUT SPEEDING THROUGH CONSTRUCTION SITES WHERE THERE ARE NO SIDEWALKS, NO CROSSWALKS – FURTHER FROM VARGA IN NEWSWEEK: “Trzaskowski is like a tram to Wilanów – a modern, shiny, low-floor vehicle speeding towards a model settlement for the liberal middle class. But speeding through construction sites where there are no sidewalks, no crosswalks, and passengers trying to get to the stop wade through mud and puddles. Anyone who has ever taken the tram to Miasteczko Wilanów or struggled through Sobieskiego Street by car knows that this is a Potemkin tram. But Potemkin investments only work in the short term because at some point everyone will realize that it is merely a facade.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/krol-podlasia-i-ksiaze-warszawski-ten-obiad-przejdzie-do-historii/h6gwxhj

— DAMN IT, NO! ATTENTION, MR. PRIME MINISTER: PEOPLE BECOME VILE FROM WORDS! WEAKNESS IS NOT PITIFUL AND DESPICABLE. PITIFUL AND DESPICABLE IS VIOLENCE – JAROSŁAW MIKOŁAJEWSKI IN GW: “Damn it, no! Attention, Mr. Prime Minister: people become vile from words! Weakness is not pitiful and despicable. Pitiful and despicable is violence. And it is a great cultural failure that the government cannot imagine, nor apply, the lesson of how monstrous and tragic it is to be sent back to the place one had to flee from.”

— NO! I DON'T AGREE! I DON'T WANT TO! MR. PRIME MINISTER, PLEASE LISTEN: YOU ARE DOING BADLY – FURTHER FROM JAROSŁAW MIKOŁAJEWSKI IN GW: “Mr. Prime Minister, please do not adopt their language. You don't have to fight for their votes. You have support elsewhere, not from them. No! I don't agree! I don't want to! Mr. Prime Minister, please allow yourself to be told that you are doing badly. This is said by someone who admires you with great gratitude. Let's not drown timeless humanism in fleeting history.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31639353,jaroslaw-mikolajewski-panie-premierze-slabosc-nie-jest-zalosna.html

— IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO HIDE THE FACT THAT TRUMP'S VICTORY PATTERN ITSELF CAN GIVE HOPE TO THE CURRENT OPPOSITION – PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ: “What impact does Trump's triumph have on the mood of ordinary Poles? It's too complex to get an easy answer. However, it's undeniable that the pattern of his victory itself can give hope to the current opposition. Polls showed a tie or a slight lead for Kamala Harris. The outcome, however, was starkly different – Trump took everything he could, though not New York or California. Those who looked for answers less in opinion polls and more in the palpable shift in climate in the American air were right. To what extent can such a shift be sought in Poland?”

— RIGHT-WING MEDIA AND POLITICIANS ARE TRYING TO DISCREDIT TRZASKOWSKI WITH A TONE OF DISMISSIVENESS. PERHAPS HASTILY. AND YET THE PROBLEM EXISTS – FURTHER FROM ZAREMBA IN RZ: “Right-wing media and politicians are trying to discredit him with a tone of dismissiveness today. Perhaps hastily. And yet the problem exists. Trzaskowski tried to get through the pre-campaign by primarily promoting his image: a cosmopolitan person, but also friendly and down-to-earth. He reportedly owes this exceptionally strong support among women. At the same time, it made him a target for memes. He functions there as 'Bążur,' a show-off with his French phrases. Or as an incompetent who, accompanied by courtiers, lights lamps on a pole named after Paweł Adamowicz as a street patron.”

— WHAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMERICAN EXAMPLE, HOWEVER, IS THE RISK OF A SURPRISE THAT SHOCKS THE LIBERAL-LEFT ESTABLISHMENT. HENCE THE NERVOUSNESS IN TUSK'S CAMP – FURTHER FROM ZAREMBA IN RZ: “It's difficult to compare Nawrocki to Trump – the stakes are different, as is the president's power, and the models for selecting candidates are different there and here. What is associated with the American example, however, is the risk of a surprise that shocks the liberal-left establishment. Hence the nervousness in Tusk's camp. On the pages of the concerned 'Gazeta Wyborcza,' political scientist Prof. Andrzej Rychard announces: 'Trzaskowski is becoming a non-obvious candidate.' It is striking, incidentally, how a scholar I highly value takes on the role of an advisor to one side. And from these positions, he considers Trzaskowski a person who 'can lose.' He complains about this candidate's insufficiently strong preparation for his role.”
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art41719131-piotr-zaremba-kampania-po-amerykansku

— CAN TRZASKOWSKI LOSE? OF COURSE HE CAN – IF HE BECOMES THE "POLISH KAMALA." I SAW HOW KAMALA HARRIS LOST THE ELECTION – AND THAT DEFEAT IS COMPLETELY LOGICAL – ARLETA ZALEWSKA ON THE TVN24 PORTAL: “Can he lose? Of course he can – if he becomes the 'Polish Kamala.' PiS campaign staff were in the USA and met with the creators of Donald Trump's campaign. They know how he defeated Kamala Harris. And they will play on this. I was in the USA in the final weeks of the campaign, visited five key states, and traveled over two and a half thousand kilometers. I saw how Kamala Harris lost the election – and that defeat is completely logical. There are five elements that had a decisive impact on her loss. It so happens that these are elements common to both Polish and American campaigns.”

— WHITE AMERICAN WOMEN HELPED DONALD TRUMP WIN – AS MANY AS 53% OF THEM VOTED FOR HIM. KAMALA HARRIS CENTERED HER ENTIRE CAMPAIGN ON WOMEN AND THE ISSUE OF ABORTION, SOMETHING THAT WORKED TWO YEARS EARLIER AND GAVE THEM VICTORY IN THE CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS, NOW IT HAS LOST ITS POWER – FURTHER FROM ZALEWSKA ON TVN24: “After midnight, it became clear that America had not only shown that it didn't want a woman in the White House. It became clear that white American women helped Donald Trump win – as many as 53% of them voted for him. Kamala Harris centered her entire campaign on women and the issue of abortion. Her team spent hundreds of millions of dollars on election commercials intended to convince them that nothing was more important to them than changing the abortion law, which had been tightened under the Trump administration. Today, Democrats know that this was a mistake, that they were wrong. Something that worked two years earlier and gave them victory in the congressional elections has now lost its power.”

— WHEN I ASKED RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI SHORTLY AFTER HE WON THE PRIMARY ELECTIONS IF HE WAS AFRAID THE GOVERNMENT WOULD BE A BURDEN TO HIM IN THIS CAMPAIGN, HE REPLIED THAT HE WAS NOT. HE INSISTED THAT DONALD TUSK'S GOVERNMENT WAS FULFILLING ITS PROMISES – FURTHER FROM ARLETA ZALEWSKA: “When I asked Rafał Trzaskowski shortly after he won the primary elections if he was afraid the government would be a burden to him in this campaign, he replied that he was not. He insisted that Donald Tusk's government was fulfilling its promises. A few weeks later, he was already positioning himself more as a critic of the government. Someone who points out where to accelerate and where to slow down. However, there is no doubt that the assessment of the government and how Poles live under its rule will determine whether voters will go to the polls at all.”

— WILL 17 MONTHS BE ENOUGH FOR THE MAJORITY OF VOTERS TO GET TIRED OF THE "ANTI-PIS" TEAM'S RULE AND WILL THE "ANTI-PIS" SLOGAN CEASE TO WORK – ARLETA ZALEWSKA'S CONCLUSION: “The record mobilization of over 74 percent gave Donald Tusk and the ruling coalition victory. If their 11 million 600 thousand voters from October 15, 2023, were to vote for Rafał Trzaskowski, he would have a second-round victory in his pocket on June 1st. Here, however, we return to the assessment of the government and the question of whether 17 months will be enough for the majority of voters to get tired of the 'anti-PiS' team's rule and whether the 'anti-PiS' slogan will cease to work.”
https://tvn24.pl/premium/rafal-trzaskowski-moze-przegrac-jesli-popelni-bledy-kamali-harris-st8264554

— NAWROCKI THREW THE COVER OF A COMIC ABOUT GENDER FROM MSN INTO THE SHREDDER, ASKED HIS COMPETITOR: HOW MANY GENDERS ARE THERE IN POLAND:
https://x.com/zaklinaskowron/status/1883118037131554923

— UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT ZELENSKY TURNS 47 TODAY.

— 20 YEARS OF CONTACT LENSES, 12 YEARS "DO RZECZY" (TO THE POINT).

— 9 YEARS AGO Grzegorz Schetyna was elected chairman of Civic Platform (ON SUNDAY)

— BIRTHDAYS: Stanisław Tyczyński, Ryszard Czarnecki, Justyna Pochanke, Kazimierz Barczyk, Jacek Włosowicz, Janusz Czapiński, Katarzyna Zdanowicz. SUNDAY: Miłada Jędrysik, Michał Jaros, Agnieszka Pasternak.