state of play: 01/21/2025
— "A WIND OF CHANGE IS BLOWING EVER FASTER TOWARDS POLAND" – MORAWIECKI PUBLISHES PHOTOS FROM TRUMP'S BALL AND WITH ARGENTINIAN PRESIDENT JAVIER MILEI – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/01/21
— TRZASKOWSKI MAINTAINS LEAD IN JANUARY TRUST RANKING BUT SEES A SIGNIFICANT DROP OF 4.5 PP. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MONTH – WRITES ONET ABOUT THE IBRIS SURVEY FROM JANUARY 17-18: "Rafał Trzaskowski maintains the lead in the January trust ranking with a result of 41.2% (19.6% trust him definitely, 21.6% rather trust him). However, this is a drop of as much as 4.5 pp. compared to the previous month. 50.7% of respondents have a negative opinion of the Mayor of Warsaw (+2 pp.), and 8.1% have a neutral opinion (+2.7 pp.). This is an alarm signal for the politician, as the number of negative responses towards him last exceeded 50% in June 2023.
— NAWROCKI ENTERS THE PODIUM. HE OVERTAKES DONALD TUSK – ONET FURTHER WRITES: "Karol Nawrocki is in third place in the trust ranking. The PiS presidential candidate enjoys the trust of 38.5% of respondents (21.7% trust him definitely, 16.8% rather trust him). This is an increase of 5.3 pp. compared to the previous poll. He is viewed negatively by 45.3% (-1.7 pp.), and 10.8% have a neutral opinion (+3 pp.). Only 5.4% of those asked responded 'don't know,' compared to 12% in December.
— 56.3% HAVE A BAD OPINION OF TUSK – ONET FURTHER WRITES: "Thus, Donald Tusk does not regain a podium position with a trust rating of 38.3%, although the Prime Minister has gained 1.8 pp. in a few weeks. 56.3% have a bad opinion of him (+2.2 pp.). 5.4% remain indifferent (+4 pp.)." https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/sondaz-zaufania-karol-nawrocki-wyprzedza-donalda-tuska-lamie-monopol/c6nbfj1?utm_source=dlvr&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=x_onet
— LATEST POLL: SUPPORT FOR NAWROCKI AND MENTZEN IS GROWING – TITLE IN RZ: "Rafał Trzaskowski, Mayor of Warsaw, Vice-Chairman of Civic Platform, candidate of Civic Coalition, received the most votes. The poll shows that his support has decreased by 0.7 percentage points since the last survey for 'Wydarzenia' and stands at 35%. Support for Karol Nawrocki, President of the Institute of National Remembrance, an independent candidate supported by Law and Justice, who is second in the poll, has increased (by 2.7 percentage points). Currently, 28.9% want to vote for Nawrocki. MP Sławomir Mentzen also made it to the podium in the latest poll, with 11.5% of respondents wanting to vote for him (an increase in support of 1.9 percentage points)." https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41702821-wybory-prezydenckie-najnowszy-sondaz-rosnie-poparcie-dla-nawrockiego-i-mentzena
— DECLINE IN THOSE FEELING SATISFIED AND RELIEVED BY THE SITUATION IN POLAND IN JANUARY CBOS SURVEY: Compared to the July measurement last year, there are fewer respondents feeling helplessness (a decrease of 3 percentage points), surprise (a decrease of 3 points), as well as satisfaction and relief (also decreases of 3 points each). Slightly more respondents felt embarrassment (an increase of 4 points).
— FEELING OF RELIEF – A YEAR AGO 16%, NOW 9%.
— SATISFACTION WITH THE SITUATION IN POLAND A YEAR AGO 18%, NOW 12%.
— INCREASE IN EMOTIONS: FEAR, APPREHENSION, ANXIETY 40% A YEAR AGO, 46% NOW. https://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/flashe_tekst.php?nr=3/2025
— TODAY'S POLLS SHOW THAT THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT IS LOSING POWER IN POLAND. QUICKLY, GIVEN THE HOPES IT RAISED – PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: "Today's polls show that the current government is losing power in Poland. Quickly, given the hopes it raised and the promises it made. This can be treated as an insignificant snapshot of the moment or as an alarm bell. Joe Biden and American Democrats were deaf to its sound, so after four years, they are leaving defeated."
— EVERYTHING CALLS FOR A RECONSTRUCTION NOT ONLY OF THE GOVERNMENT BUT ALSO OF THE COMMUNICATION METHOD AND SELECTION OF PRIORITIES – SZUBARTOWICZ FURTHER IN INTERIA: "For now, the government – not always fairly, but it's not about fairness, but about impressions – is beginning to be associated by people with ineffective settlements, unpassed laws that must wait for another president, neglect of innovation, healthcare with lengthening queues for specialists, rising energy prices, non-decreasing gasoline prices, disregard for IT education and a lack of competence in key ministries, which calls for a reconstruction not only of the government, but also of the communication method and selection of priorities." https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-amerykanskie-memento,nId,7895567
— JOE BIDEN'S FAREWELL FROM THE WHITE HOUSE DEALT A BLOW TO LIBERAL DEMOCRACY – ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: "But in a state governed by law, as a rule, ultimately – if the need arises and doubts emerge – a court should decide. Because if the law is to govern, except for situations where the ruler deems that the law does not govern, then it will turn out that in defending democracy, we are on the same side of the barricade as those who attack it." https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41702791-artur-bartkiewicz-joe-biden-na-pozegnanie-z-bialym-domem-zadal-cios-liberalnej-demokracji
— FROM CULTURAL COUNTER-REVOLUTION TRUMP MOVES TO A CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: "But it is precisely all these circles that Trump has decided to shock and horrify. From cultural counter-revolution, Trump is therefore moving to a clash of civilizations, deepening the axis of division that divides the Western world – between the progressive, cosmopolitan left, sensitive to the demands of LGBT communities and gender theory, and the alt-right appealing to simple but understandable American patriotism, reluctant towards critical theory, wokeness, and ideological novelties. And this is just the first day of his presidency." https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41705851-michal-szuldrzynski-donald-trump-i-zderzenie-cywilizacji-rewolucja-zdrowego-rozsadku-czy-wojna-kulturowa
— VARIOUS SCENARIOS COME TO MIND. FOR EXAMPLE, THAT THE "FOR THE DIRECTOR" RESERVATIONS WERE USED BY PEOPLE WHO FOR SOME REASON DID NOT WANT THEIR NAMES TO APPEAR IN THE RESIDENT REGISTRATION BOOK. INTERESTING PSEUDONYMS "WIELKI BU", "ŚLEDZIU", "OLO" – WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI IN GW: "Various scenarios come to mind. For example, that the 'for the director' reservations were used by people who for some reason did not want their names to appear in the resident registration book. Here, in turn, one recalls the famous report that was created within PiS before the decision to support Karol Nawrocki's candidacy. The document lists Nawrocki's acquaintances from hooligan-criminal circles. Interesting pseudonyms ('Wielki Bu', 'Śledziu', 'Olo') and not entirely correct organizations (Blood & Honour, Bad Company) are not good company, and these are not proper acquaintances. Especially when it turns out that Karol Nawrocki allowed his colleagues from the 'white power' circles to organize parties at Westerplatte." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31627947,co-ukrywa-karol-nawrocki.html#S.TD-K.C-B.2-L.1.duzy
— DID THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS DO ITS HOMEWORK, DID IT CONSIDER ALL POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF THE SITUATION'S DEVELOPMENT, SUCH AS THE AMBASSADOR IN WASHINGTON – PROF. RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK IN CONVERSATION WITH JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: "After the presidential elections, there should be a serious soul-searching, because one can have serious doubts whether the Ministry of Foreign Affairs did its homework, whether it considered all possible scenarios of the situation's development, such as the issue of the ambassador in Washington, or public statements that did not necessarily have to be made. The same can be said in completely different language, to signal one's own system of values, rather than making an unambiguous political manifestation. Small Hungary is grilling Poland on the international stage. War-torn Ukraine does it permanently. Volodymyr Zelenskyy's recent visit was just another confirmation of this."
— UKRAINE'S HISTORICAL POLICY IS PRACTICALLY A PROVOCATION, MORE SO TOWARDS POLAND THAN TOWARDS MOSCOW. THERE IS NO BREAKTHROUGH – PROF. CHWEDORUK FURTHER WITH NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: "There is no breakthrough in the matter of exhumations. Ukraine's historical policy is practically a provocation, more towards Poland than towards Moscow. There is no breakthrough regarding the transport market and the agricultural production market, which hits Polish business, even concerning the incident in Przewodów and the deaths of two citizens – not a single gesture of goodwill."
— CHWEDORUK CLAIMS NAWROCKI IS UNELECTABLE: "It seems that if there is any sense to his candidacy, it is primarily about economy. He is a candidate whose defeat would not be as painful for PiS as the defeat of some well-known figure from the party. And the second sense, competition with Konfederacja. Nawrocki is someone consciously unelectable. Before the second round, he will be able to cause hesitation among many Konfederacja voters and a simple analysis that he is, after all, a politician who, compared to those we voted for, for example, in the Sejm elections, is not as distant from them as someone else supported by PiS might be, which is still in the process of solidifying its existence, status as one of the two largest parties, and preventing internal splits." https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41703861-prof-chwedoruk-karol-nawrocki-jest-niewybieralny-ma-wzmocnic-pis-w-walce-z-konfederacja
— STANOWSKI COULD BE A DECIDEDLY MORE INTERESTING CANDIDATE THAN SŁAWOMIR MENTZEN. NOT ONLY DOES HE HAVE CHARISMA, WHICH MENTZEN STRONGLY LACKS, BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY – HE WOULD NOT LET HIMSELF BE DEMOLISHED BY RYSZARD PETRU – MICHAŁ PŁOCIŃSKI IN RZ: "But the fact that this is a joke doesn't mean anything yet. Because where will this happening end? Perhaps it will drag him to the presidential elections themselves, and he will actually run. I cannot, however, find a good answer to the question of why he would do it, because fun and promotion can be good without a costly run in the elections, but perhaps I underestimate his imagination. However, I can imagine that for 'normal people' Krzysztof Stanowski could be a decidedly more interesting candidate than Sławomir Mentzen. Not only does he have charisma, which Mentzen strongly lacks, but most importantly – he would not let himself be demolished by Ryszard Petru." https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41697131-michal-plocinski-kto-kogo-zaorze-grzegorz-braun-slawomira-mentzena-czy-krzysztof-stanowski-obu
— THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND HAS CONCLUDED ITS CYCLICAL REVIEW OF THE POLISH ECONOMY. AND IT CONVINCES: GDP GROWTH WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE GOVERNMENT ASSUMES, PUBLIC FINANCES ARE TRAPPED BY A DANGEROUS DEFICIT, BANKS SHOULD NO LONGER BE MADE TO LIVE DIFFICULT – PATRYCJA MACIEJEWICZ IN GW: https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,177151,31627879,jak-odebrac-paliwo-inflacji-i-wesprzec-inwestycje-w-polsce.html
— WITHOUT REGARD TO THE POLITICAL GOALS BEHIND SUCH RHETORIC (QUOTES ARE FROM A RECENT STATEMENT BY RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI, CIVIC COALITION CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT), IT MUST BE SAID CLEARLY: IT SIMPLY DEVIATES FROM THE TRUTH – MARIA KORCZ IN GW: "Ukrainians who came to Poland before spring 2022 are employed in 93% of cases. Refugees from after the outbreak of the war (i.e., mainly women) in 78% of cases. For comparison, the employment rate among Poles at the time the survey was conducted was 56%." https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,159911,31626586,800-tylko-dla-pracujacych-ukraincow-ta-retoryka-wypacza-sytuacje.html
— THE DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE WILL UNDERSTAND A LOT AND VERY MUCH DOES NOT WANT THE RETURN OF PIS TO POWER, BUT IF YOU CONTINUE TO PROVE FOR MONTHS THAT THERE ARE NO BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CIVIC COALITION AND PIS, WE WILL FINALLY BELIEVE IT – KATARZYNA PRZYBORSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: "A dinner with Zenek Martyniuk might be surprising, but it's not a problem. Much more harmful are Trzaskowski's statements praising the border, as if he didn't know about the soldiers' drunkenness, people drowning in marshes and human trafficking, or the proposal to take away the 800+ from Ukrainian children. Is it worth it, Mr. President? I doubt it. The democratic electorate will understand a lot and very much does not want the return of PiS to power, but if you continue to prove for months that there are no greater differences between KO and PiS, we will finally believe it."
— CIVIC COALITION PERSISTENTLY SHOWS IT IS UNSATISFIED WITH VOTERS. THAT IT IS NOT SHE FOR THE VOTERS, BUT THE VOTERS FOR HER, AND SHE CONTINUES TO TURN UP HER NOSE – PRZYBORSKA FURTHER IN KRYTYKA: "Civic Coalition does not want to aim for either. In addition, the party stubbornly shows that it is dissatisfied with voters. That it is not for the voters, but the voters for it, and it continues to turn up its nose. When the young and women decided to support Civic Coalition, Civic Coalition turns away from them. When supporters of the Green Deal supported it, it turns out that farmers, hunters, and the church-hunting lobby are more important than them." https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/obiad-z-zenkiem-martyniukiem-to-zaden-problem/
— 7TH ANNIVERSARY OF LIDIA OSTALOWSKA'S DEATH.
— BIRTHDAYS: Paweł Arndt, Stanisław Handzlik.
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