state of play: 01/16/2025

POLITICAL GAME: Zelensky's Strong Words on Nawrocki, Haszczyński: Calling Those Dissatisfied with Kyiv's Stance 'Fools' or 'Traitors' Won't Help

Łukasz Mężyk

— PERHAPS I AM OVERLY SENSITIVE, BUT I PERCEIVED IT AS A DELIBERATE ATTEMPT TO BURY THE ISSUE — Dr. Witold Sokała tells Onet, commenting on Volodymyr Zelensky's words about waiting for the results of the Volhynia exhumation agreements.

— I WOULD LIKE TO BE OPTIMISTIC, BUT IN LIGHT OF THIS CONVERSATION, I CANNOT BE — DR. SOKAŁA RESPONDS TO ONET. "Zelensky did not seize the opportunity to say something groundbreaking. This means he still believes he doesn't have to — assesses the expert."

— PERHAPS I AM OVERLY SENSITIVE, BUT I PERCEIVED IT AS A DELIBERATE ATTEMPT TO BURY THE ISSUE — DR. SOKAŁA CONTINUES ON ONET: "But these are generalities that we have been hearing for years. Plus calls to patiently await the effects of recent agreements on exhumations. Perhaps I am overly sensitive, but I perceived it as a deliberate attempt to bury the issue."
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/specjalny-wywiad-zelenskiego-ekspert-nie-potrafie-byc-optymista/vbwhm81,79cfc278

— CALLING THOSE DISSATISFIED WITH KYIV'S STANCE 'FOOLS' OR 'TRAITORS' WON'T HELP EITHER — JERZY HASZCZYŃSKI IN RZ: "Declarations of major breakthroughs are not enough for Polish-Ukrainian relations. Nor will it help to call those who feel dissatisfied with Kyiv's stance on the Volhynia genocide 'fools' or 'traitors.'"

— EVEN A GREAT WAR CAN BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR REFLECTION ON CRIMES IN PREVIOUS WARS — HASZCZYŃSKI CONTINUES: "Beyond the decision on the first exhumations, nothing has changed in Ukraine's approach to Bandera and the Volhynia criminals. Yet, even a great war can be an opportunity for reflection on crimes in previous wars, at least for the elites. And Ukrainian politicians proved this a few days ago."
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41684931-jerzy-haszczynski-naprawde-tylko-glupcy-i-zdrajcy-maja-watpliwosci-w-sprawie-ludobojstwa-na-wolyniu

— IN ESSENCE, IT IS AN EXPRESSION OF POLAND'S WEAKNESS AND ITS DIPLOMACY — WITOLD JURASZ IN ONET: "The above is a diplomatic defeat for Poland, and the arguments that 'now is not the best time' to resolve this issue could be grudgingly accepted, were it not for the fact that those who claim this have been saying the same thing for 35 years. The formula proposed by Poland, within which we separate the issue of exhumations and burials from the issue of commemorations, and which, according to proponents of this method of conducting policy on the Volhynia issue, has the merit of potentially leading to exhumations and burials, is only seemingly an expression of our foresight. In essence, it is an expression of Poland's weakness and its diplomacy. Poland, as the only country in the world, first in relations with Russia regarding Katyn, and now in relations with Ukraine regarding Volhynia, adopts a curious way of thinking where the crime committed against a given nation becomes its problem, not the perpetrator nation's. This completely flawed philosophy of action in this case unfortunately unites Civic Platform and PiS, and this happens because both parties, using the exact same cadres for years, ultimately commit the same mistakes and, what is worse, do not learn from them."

— EVERYTHING INDICATES THAT KYIV'S CONCESSIONS ARE, UNFORTUNATELY, EITHER PLAIN DECEPTION — JURASZ CONTINUES: "It is hard not to notice how evasive Volodymyr Zelensky was when the issue of the Volhynia massacre was raised. Everything indicates that Kyiv's concessions are, unfortunately, either plain deception, or the peak of our achievements will be the exhumation and burial of victims, but Ukraine will not face the truth about Volhynia."
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/wolodymyr-zelenski-w-polsce-6-wnioskow-z-wizyty-komentarz/whxkrlk,79cfc278

— IF UKRAINE IS NOT IN NATO, IF UKRAINE DOES NOT HAVE SECURITY GUARANTEES, THEN MR. (KAROL) NAWROCKI SHOULD START TRAINING, BECAUSE IT MAY TURN OUT THAT HE WILL HAVE TO TAKE UP ARMS TO DEFEND HIS COUNTRY TOGETHER WITH HIS COMPATRIOTS — SAYS UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY IN AN INTERVIEW WITH POLISH MEDIA.

— ZELENSKY spoke with representatives of TVN24, Onet, "Krytyka Polityczna," and "Rzeczpospolita."

— MR. NAWROCKI SHOULD START TRAINING, BECAUSE IT MAY TURN OUT THAT HE WILL HAVE TO TAKE UP ARMS TO DEFEND HIS COUNTRY TOGETHER WITH HIS COMPATRIOTS — ZELENSKY CONTINUES IN AN INTERVIEW WITH TVN, AXEL SPRINGER, AND KRYTYKA: "If Ukraine is not in the European Union and not in NATO, if Ukraine does not have security guarantees, then Mr. Nawrocki should start training, because it may turn out that he will have to take up arms to defend his country together with his compatriots. Because if Ukraine is nowhere, the risk (of war in Poland) will be very high. Russia will then be on the border with Poland, and then (Mr. Nawrocki) will have not political competition, but will be fighting for his life."

— WHEN WE SPOKE WITH DONALD TODAY — ZELENSKY CONTINUES, ACCORDING TO RZ'S REPORT: "(Tusk) and with the (Polish) government, I said: Let's assume we started diplomacy, and we have almost a million-strong army in Ukraine. Partners are now supporting it. And where will we later find so many resources, so much weaponry to maintain this army, if we don't have NATO, if we don't have support, if we don't have air defense, if we don't have a navy? We have to rely only on ourselves. And we know what it means to rely only on ourselves. What army in Europe is currently larger than the Ukrainian one? None. And this is our advantage, but a very expensive advantage."

— AND WE WILL BUILD OUR RELATIONS WITH PRIME MINISTER TUSK LIKE THIS — ZELENSKY FURTHER STATES: "I think that before we announce anything publicly — and we will build our relations with Prime Minister (Tusk) like this — before we say anything out loud, we will first call and discuss it. We have very good relations, so why should we risk them? We should try to look at things pragmatically. That's what I think."

— OUR MINISTRY OF CULTURE HAS BEGUN WORK TODAY ON THE ISSUE OF HISTORY AND RESPECT FOR HISTORY; THEY ARE DEVELOPING PLANS, HAVE DEADLINES, AND HAVE APPROPRIATE STEPS PLANNED — ZELENSKY ON THE QUESTION OF EXHUMATIONS: "Look how strongly people perceive everything in social media. I'm not talking about whether it's fair or not. I'm simply saying that people are more sensitive. They react violently, and this can have very dangerous consequences later. Of course, Ukrainians defend Ukrainian interests, Poles defend Polish interests, but please remember that we also have Ukrainian-Polish and Polish-Ukrainian interests, and these are very important interests. Our Ministry of Culture has begun work today on the issue of history and respect for history; they are developing plans, have deadlines, and have appropriate steps planned. They see all the details and are aware of them. We had a meeting with the prime minister and the president, and it is very important that both sides state that they see progress."
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41683011-wolodymyr-zelenski-zachod-nie-rozumie-ze-rosja-pojdzie-dalej

— I WILL RUN IN THESE ELECTIONS, WITH GOD'S AND HUMAN HELP. THIS IS A GOOD PROJECT, AND THANKS TO IT, WE WILL BE ABLE TO INCREASE THE CHANCES [...] OF HAVING REPRESENTATION OF POLISH CATHOLICS IN THE NEXT PARLIAMENT — DECLARED GRZEGORZ BRAUN IN AN INTERVIEW WITH DAWID MYSIOR FROM SERWIS SPRAWKI.
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/grzegorz-braun-oglosil-swoj-start-w-wyborach-prezydenckich/f2jqvjy,79cfc278

— "I MUST PROTECT THE SCHOOL FROM POLITICAL BICKERING." NOWACKA EXPLAINS WHAT'S NEXT FOR HEALTH EDUCATION — 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/01/16/

— THE THREE LATEST POLLS ARE A WARNING FOR TRZASKOWSKI. COINCIDENCE OR CAMPAIGN MISTAKES? — PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: "It appears that Rafał Trzaskowski is losing his attractiveness in this sense. While in the December four polls his lead over Nawrocki was over 10 percentage points, in the January three it was only slightly over 5 percentage points. In December, almost 37% chose Trzaskowski, but in January, it was less – 33%. During the same time, Nawrocki gained minimally – from 26% to 27.5%. Each of these polls may be mistaken, in one direction or the other, but all together they likely provide a true picture."

— TRZASKOWSKI REMAINS THE FAVORITE IN BOTH ROUNDS OF THE ELECTION, BUT THE CAMPAIGN IS NOT CARRYING HIM; RATHER, IT IS DRAGGING HIM DOWN WITH ITS WEIGHT — WRITES PACEWICZ.

— IS IT STRANGE THAT YOUNG PEOPLE FEEL DISAPPOINTED BY SUCH AN OLD-FASHIONED MENU? — PACEWICZ CONTINUES: "Instead of 'forward,' Trzaskowski tends to reach 'backward,' even on... culinary matters. He waxes lyrical about traditional Polish cuisine: 'Sensational goose, Polish cheeses, tomatoes that have flavor, white wine that can compete with French. We love pierogi, roulade, Silesian dumplings. Polish soups are a powerhouse. Zalewajka...' Is it strange that young people feel disappointed by such an old-fashioned menu?"

— NOW WE HAVE A LEADER WHO DECLARES THAT WE NEED TO GO "FORWARD," BUT THERE IS A LACK OF ENERGY, VISION, AND COURAGE IN THIS — PACEWICZ CONTINUES IN OKO.PRESS: "The mood, the climate has also changed. The 'Spot 2020' event was the voice of a politician in contact with a vibrant crowd. It was based on the brilliant idea that subsequent verses of that credo were spoken in dialogue, with Trzaskowski joined by, among others, a woman in a wheelchair, as well as a Silesian and a Kashub, and children. The message was social, solidarity-based, and egalitarian. We saw a politician who, with people and for people, was meant to take Poland back from PiS. Now we have a leader who declares that we need to go 'forward,' but there is a lack of energy, vision, and courage in this."

— WE MAY THEREFORE HAVE AN ELECTION CAMPAIGN BASED ON TWO FALSE ASSUMPTIONS, A RIVALRY OF TWO MISTAKES — PACEWICZ ON NAWROCKI'S IDENTITY-BASED MISTAKE: "As such, 'Nawrocki is a convenient rival, because he will help define the main question of these elections: will the bad PiS return to power?' Meanwhile, the chance for an 'civic candidate' would be to raise the issue of changing the government, 'so that people live better.' Just as Trump did, repeating over and over that he would immediately stop inflation and end high prices. We may therefore have an election campaign based on two false assumptions, a rivalry of two mistakes."

— THE COALITION'S LEAD OVER THE OPPOSITION IS CURRENTLY ONLY ABOUT 4-5 PERCENTAGE POINTS. IN THE 2023 ELECTIONS, IT WAS MORE THAN TWICE AS MUCH (11.2 PERCENTAGE POINTS), WHICH IN ITSELF IS A WARNING SIGNAL FOR TRZASKOWSKI — Pacewicz further in Oko.
https://oko.press/trzy-najnowsze-sondaze-to-ostrzezenie-dla-trzaskowskiego

— TRZASKOWSKI'S DOUBLE MISTAKE — JACEK GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK: "Thus, Rafał Trzaskowski, by issuing an order regarding crosses, first struck at conservative voters, and therefore paid a political price. And then, by not implementing his own decision, he may only enrage left-wing voters – and pay for it a second time."
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/rafal-trzaskowski-wywolal-burze-ws-krzyzy-a-potem-nie-wypelnil-wlasnej-decyzji/pyefz89,452ad802

— BIRTHDAYS: Georgette Mosbacher (78), Radomir Szumełda, Lech Jaworski, Dariusz Lasocki.


Łukasz Mężyk