— 123 DAYS, OR 4 MONTHS AND 3 DAYS UNTIL THE 1ST ROUND.

— PIS LEADS BY ALMOST THREE POINTS OVER KO, WHICH LOSES 4 PP, CONFEDERATION GROWS BY 5 PP – IBRIS POLL FOR RZ: PiS could count on 33.2 percent support, KO – on 30.5 percent, Konfederacja – 12.4 percent, Trzecia Droga (PSL and Szymon Hołownia's Poland 2050) – 9 percent, Lewica – 6.3 percent, Razem – 1.3 percent support. 7 percent of respondents answered “hard to say”.

— THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION CAN CURRENTLY COUNT ON 220 SEATS.
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41678691-najnowszy-sondaz-partyjny-koalicja-rzadzaca-ma-problem

— PRESIDENTIAL POLL: NAWROCKI CATCHES UP TO TRZASKOWSKI. HE HAS NEVER BEEN SO CLOSE – RZ: “In a CBOS poll regarding the first round of presidential elections, the President of the Institute of National Remembrance, Karol Nawrocki, is close to the leading Mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski. The difference between the KO and PiS candidates is 4 percentage points.”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41678251-sondaz-prezydencki-nawrocki-dogania-trzaskowskiego-tak-blisko-jeszcze-nie-byl

— SZEFERNAKER: THE LOSSES OF PO AND TRZASKOWSKI IN THE POLLS RESULT FROM US HAVING THE WORST GOVERNMENT IN 30 YEARS, ANNOUNCES NAWROCKI’S “IMPORTANT STATEMENT” ON TRANSATLANTIC POLICY DURING A MEETING WITH THE DIPLOMATIC CORPS

NITRAS ANNOUNCES A MEETING BETWEEN ZELENSKY AND TRZASKOWSKI AND THANKS TO WARSAW – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/01/15/

— MORAWIECKI, LEADER OF THE EUROPEAN RIGHT – ONE OF THE HEADLINES ON THE COVER OF SE.

— FOR NOW – I REPEAT – IT IS NOT ALARMING, BUT IT IS WORRYING – PROF. ANDRZEJ RYCHARD IN AN INTERVIEW WITH AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “If such a trend were to continue, it could indicate an evolution – Rafał Trzaskowski is becoming a non-obvious candidate from an obvious one. From a candidate who must win, he is becoming a candidate who can win.”

— COMPLETION IS A BIT TOO LITTLE. IT IS NECESSARY TO OPEN UP TO SOMETHING NEW, SOMETHING MORE POSITIVE – RYCHARD CONTINUES WITH KUBLIK IN GW: “There are several reasons why it is difficult for him. The assumed election slogan is to be the completion of change. Firstly, in my opinion, completion is a bit too little. It is necessary to open up to something new, something more positive. (…) if Trzaskowski is to complete this, it is not necessarily clear whether completing something that is not unequivocally enthusiastically assessed will become a sufficient slogan to mobilize the electorate.”

— AMONG SOME POTENTIAL SUPPORTERS, THE CONVICTION MAY GROW – THAT NAWROCKI IS A STRONG MAN – RYCHARD ON DUDek’s WORDS: “Among some PiS supporters, such words may reinforce the conviction – and among some potential supporters, it may grow – that Nawrocki is a strong man, and this will add to his power. And this does not necessarily disqualify a candidate.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31613274,prof-andrzej-rychard-o-wynikach-trzaskowskiego-powod-do-niepokoju.html

— KACZYŃSKI WILL HAVE TO TESTIFY. THE NATIONAL PROSECUTOR’S REPORT IS THE PRELUDE TO JUSTICE – WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI IN GW: “And when, in response to journalists’ questions, prosecutor Katarzyna Kwiatkowska, head of the team, says that Kaczyński, like any citizen, will have to testify before an independent prosecutor, things are becoming somewhat more normal. So little, yet so much.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31613374,kaczynski-bedzie-musial-zeznawac-raport-prokuratora-krajowego.html

— SUBORDINATES ARE GETTING IN TROUBLE, BUT NOT THEIR EMPLOYERS – MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “This is also evident in the context of settling accounts with PiS. Investigations, charges, and arrests primarily concern people from the lower ranks: two civil servants from the Ministry of Justice of not very high rank, a priest who was a beneficiary of the Justice Fund, heads of companies linked to state strategic reserves. But Ziobro and Morawiecki, the highest officials responsible for managing these funds, are currently beyond the reach of justice; National Prosecutor Dariusz Korneluk himself has implied that there is essentially nothing against Ziobro. They face no charges; on the contrary, they are the ones pressing charges against the current government. The same applies to Macierewicz, Sasin, Obajtek, and many other PiS dignitaries and their associates. Subordinates are in trouble, but not their employers.”

— THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION DOES NOT PROVIDE SPECIAL CERTAINTY HERE. MANY OFFICIALS, SERVICE OFFICERS, PROSECUTORS ARE CLEARLY WAITING IT OUT – CONTINUES THE FIRST DEPUTY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “This is a matter of the general political atmosphere, the perception of the strength and prospects of the current government. And it is evident that the October 15 coalition does not provide special certainty here. Many officials, service officers, and prosecutors are clearly waiting it out. Opinions have emerged that, for example, the rather meager achievements of parliamentary investigation committees are also due to the fact that materials from the services were not flowing as smoothly as they could have, and that some obstruction also concerns the prosecution.”

— THEY HAVE RETREATED TO WAITING POSITIONS, AND ARE EVEN GATHERING MATERIALS FOR PIS, WAITING FOR THEIR RETURN – JANICKI CONTINUES IN POLITYKA: “These assumptions, but also observations, go further: officials in ministries and government institutions who previously cooperated with the new government in uncovering scandals related to PiS rule are now adopting a different strategy – they have retreated to waiting positions, and are even, as it were, gathering materials for PiS, in anticipation of the party’s return, which will allow them to remain in their positions.”

— KACZYŃSKI’S GROUP IS, TO SOME EXTENT, SUCCEEDING IN CREATING THE IMPRESSION THAT TUSK’S GOVERNMENT IS INCIDENTAL, LIKE BIDEN’S IN THE US, THAT IT IS AN INTERRUPTER IN RIGHT-WING GOVERNANCE, NOT A LASTING CHANGE – STATES MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Kaczyński’s group is, to some extent, succeeding in creating the impression that Tusk’s government is incidental, like Biden’s in the US, that it is an interrupter in right-wing governance, not a lasting change. And the return of PiS is to be presented as terrifying. We wrote many years ago in POLITYKA that the administration and the entire political environment, including business, fears PiS more than Platforma. It is worse to offend Kaczyński than Tusk, because Platforma does not want revenge as much, it does not have such determination. The opinion that emerged in 2015, which is still alive – because it is supported by many journalists – that PiS is the natural winner, who sometimes fails, but everything soon returns to normal.”

— TUSK HAS NOT SO FAR SUCCEEDED IN CREATING A TRIUMPHANT ATMOSPHERE, AN IMAGE OF “NATURAL POWER” FOR YEARS TO COME – JANICKI CONTINUES: “Donald Tusk has not yet succeeded in creating a triumphant atmosphere, an image of 'natural power' for years to come. And this is of decisive importance for the success of his mission. Of course, the result of the presidential elections will be important. If Rafał Trzaskowski wins, he will become a sort of safeguard protecting the people of the current camp from PiS retaliation, even if this party wins the elections in 2027. However, the intimidation from Kaczyński’s people is going so far that even this guarantee may not be enough. After all, threats of using extraordinary methods, including a temporary para-constitution, are being made, so it is unknown whether a presidential veto or pardons would be respected.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2285161,1,granie-w-zastraszanie-pis-grozi-zemsta.read

— THE REPORT IS CRITICIZED, AMONG OTHER THINGS, FOR ITS GENERALITY, LACK OF SPECIFIC PROSECUTORS’ NAMES, AND THE THREAT OF STATUTE OF LIMITATIONS FOR SOME CASES – JOLANTA OJCZYK IN BUSINESS INSIDER: “The report is criticized, among other things, for its generality, lack of names of specific prosecutors, and the threat of statute of limitations for some cases. A detailed analysis of the files of 200 cases revealed numerous irregularities that were known and signaled. The report lacks proposals aimed at eliminating reprehensible practices.”
https://businessinsider.com.pl/prawo/raport-prokuratury-o-sledztwach-z-czasow-pis-oto-czego-w-nim-brakuje/kbeyh0d

— IT IS GOOD THAT THE REPORT WAS CREATED. IT IS CERTAINLY A STRONG ARGUMENT FOR FINALLY DEPOLITICIZING THE PROSECUTOR’S OFFICE – TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ: “Bodnar’s report shows that politics must be removed from the prosecutor’s office. The question is whether politicians are able to release this institution from their hands and give up control. I doubt it. However, there is a chance to surround it with a wall of civic guarantees, so that abuses are minimized. A stronger right to a defender, broader access to files, limiting the pathology of pre-trial detention – all this can be done. It is good that this report was created. It is important that it is not just a weapon for political accountability, but an impulse for systemic changes.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art41680201-tomasz-pietryga-raport-bodnara-to-akt-oskarzenia-przeciw-prokuraturze-ziobry-co-dalej

— IN ORDER TO DEFEAT PIS, TUSK RESORTED TO TWO POWERFUL TOOLS: DEVOURING COALITION PARTNERS AND POLARIZATION – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Tusk therefore decided to bet everything on winning the European Parliament elections, which took place two months later. And so it happened. But today he is paying the price for that move. Why? Because in his effort to defeat PiS, Tusk resorted to two powerful tools: devouring coalition partners and polarization.”

— AT SOME POINT, THE ENTHUSIASM OF VOTERS AFTER THE ELECTION VICTORY SUBSIDED. THE PROSAIC REALITY RETURNED, AND POLES AGAIN BEGAN TO LOOK FEARFULLY AT THEIR BILLS – SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “At some point, the enthusiasm of voters after the election victory subsided. The prosaic reality returned, and Poles again began to look fearfully at their electricity and gas bills, butter prices soared, and the holidays passed to the rhythm of complaints about the high cost of living. This, in turn, began to negatively impact Rafał Trzaskowski’s presidential election campaign and the poll results of Civic Coalition (in the latest IBRiS poll for ‘Rzeczpospolita,’ PiS is ahead of KO by over 2 percentage points).”

— AND THE SUPPORT PREVIOUSLY WITHDRAWN BY KO HAS NOT RETURNED TO THE COALITION PARTNERS – SZUŁDRZYŃSKI STILL WRITES IN RZ: “So far, it is going to Konfederacja, which seems to be the main beneficiary of the strategy adopted by Donald Tusk. Konfederacja is strengthening its position as the third party.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41679131-michal-szuldrzynski-slona-cena-sondazowych-sukcesow-koalicji-obywatelskiej

— IN PLATFORMA, THERE IS ANGER TOWARDS LEWICA AND HOŁOWNIA. “THERE WILL BE NOTHING TO DRAW FROM” – DOMINIKA DŁUGOSZ IN NEWSWEEK: “The Prime Minister’s entourage is concerned not only about the polls of their own candidate. The voices cast for candidates representing Lewica and Trzecia Droga are also a problem for those involved in Rafał Trzaskowski’s campaign. The reasoning of the Mayor of Warsaw’s entourage is quite logical. Trzaskowski will get his share in the first round, and the votes of Lewica candidates will go to him in the second. – They should all work on their support. The more they collect, the more will go to Rafał in the second round. And they seem to have no motivation, as if they have decided that participation itself is what matters, and they don’t have to do anything else. There will be nothing to draw from if this continues – complain our sources.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/w-platformie-zlosc-na-lewice-i-holownie-jakby-uznali-ze-liczy-sie-sam-udzial/hch3zp9,452ad802

— SUCH SITUATIONS REPEATEDLY PREVENT US FROM SHOWING PROJECTS THAT DUDA WOULD VETO BECAUSE THEY DON’T EVEN LEAVE THE SEJM. THEY SIT THERE AND ROT, AND PEOPLE GET DISAPPOINTED – COMPLAINS A CIVIC COALITION MP – IN DANIEL DROB’S ARTICLE IN GAZETA.PL: “I don’t understand why such things are put on the agenda at this moment, even if they are entirely justified. It was known that PSL would not support it. Repeated situations like this mean we cannot show projects that Duda would veto because they don’t even leave the Sejm. They sit there and rot, and people get disappointed – complains a Civic Coalition MP. When asked if Trzaskowski followed Kosiniak-Kamysz’s lead on health education, our interlocutor replies: – The role of a vice-chairman of the party representing the left wing and the president of the most progressive city in Poland is one thing, and the role of the head of state is another. Here, one must go in the middle.”
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,31613040,w-rzadzie-iskrzy-a-przewaga-trzaskowskiego-topnieje-polityk.html

— THERE ARE NO RATIONAL REASONS WHY THE SUPREME COURT’S CHAMBER OF INVESTIGATION AND EXTRAORDINARY CONTROL SHOULD NOT RULE ON THE VALIDITY OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, AS IT HAS DONE SEVERAL TIMES BEFORE – MAREK DOMAGALSKI IN RZ: “So if one is looking for pre-election hysteria, it is more likely to be found in the actions of representatives of this judicial-political camp, who have been announcing the introduction of their ideas for the rule of law from election to election, which they would like to smuggle in now, while blocking subsidies. As if important systemic changes could be introduced through legal maneuvers.”
https://www.rp.pl/rzecz-o-prawie/art41679951-marek-domagalski-kto-histeryzuje-przed-wyborami

— BIRTHDAYS: Danuta Walewska, Agnieszka Romaszewska, Jacek Protas, Paweł Stremski, Ewa Lieder.