state of play: 12/21/2024

POLITICAL GAME: Ipsos Poll Shows Coalition Would Secure 218 Seats in Sejm, Prof. Flis: Elections a Referendum on the Government, Prof. Nowak: Nawrocki Needs a Million-Vote Lead, Not 100,000

Łukasz Mężyk

-- POLITICO EUROPE ON HOW THE GAINING GROUND RIGHT-WING REACTED TO THE MAGDEBURG ATTACK: “Leading right-wing figures, from Geert Wilders in the Netherlands to Nigel Farage in the UK and Marine Le Pen in France, have seized on the shocking attack to promote anti-immigration and anti-Islam slogans, as far-right parties gain popularity across the continent. Outside Europe, tech billionaire and key advisor to US President-elect Donald Trump, Elon Musk, delivered a scathing criticism of German authorities, calling on Chancellor Olaf Scholz to resign.” https://www.politico.eu/article/magdeburg-christmas-market-attack-europe-far-right-elon-musk/ -- ONLY A GRAND VICTORY WILL STOP FALSITY - PAWEŁ SZEFERNAKER ON ELECTION PROTECTION - SPOKE ON RMF FM WITH KRZYSZTOF ZIEMIEC: We want this to be a citizen's movement; Przemysław Czarnek will lead such a team on our behalf. We will have people in every commission. -- THIS WAS A RESPONSE ADEQUATE TO THE CANDIDATE'S POSITION - If not for that statement, the mainstream media wouldn't have shown Nawrocki's activity again – Szefernaker also told Ziemiec on RMF. -- IPSOS: COALITION WOULD HAVE 218 SEATS IN THE SEJM TODAY - ACCORDING TO IPSOD POLL FOR TVP: “The combined result of Law and Justice and Confederation gives 242 mandates. In such a configuration, the opposition could take power and form a government. Maciej Onasz from the University of Łódź, who presented a simulation on social media, emphasized that a majority for the Civic Coalition and Confederation (234 MPs) would also be possible. The October 15 Coalition would have 218 seats in the Sejm.” -- CONFEDERATION IN IPSOS POLL HAS 15%, PIS AND KO 29%: https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-dwoch-liderow-i-zaskakujacy-wynik-konfederacji-jest-nowy-son,nId,7880113 -- IN MAY, THE ELECTIONS WILL BOIL DOWN TO A PLEBISCITE: 'DO WE PREFER THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT OR THE PREVIOUS ONE?' - PROF. JAROSŁAW FLIS IN DGP: https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/magazyn-na-weekend/artykuly/9696679,w-maju-wybory-sprowadza-sie-do-plebiscytu-wolimy-obecny-rzad-czy-pop.html -- IF THE GOVERNMENT COALITION DOES NOT REVERSE THE TRENDS CONCERNING SOCIAL ATTITUDES IN THE NEAR FUTURE, WE WILL FACE A REPEAT OF THE UNITED STATES. IT MAY TURN OUT THAT, JUST LIKE ACROSS THE OCEAN, WE WILL ONLY HAVE A PAUSE IN POPULIST GOVERNMENTS – says Prof. Przemysław Sadura in an interview with Super Express. -- THE MAJORITY BELIEVES THAT WHEN IT COMES TO THE STANDARD OF LIVING, WE ARE DEALING WITH STAGNATION, OR EVEN A DETERIORATION OF THIS STANDARD OF LIVING - SADURA CONTINUES WITH TOMASZ WALCZAK IN SE: “Clearly, when asked about Poland's relations with the European Union, they see improvement. And of course, there is a group of fanatical voters for Donald Tusk, enthusiasts of holding the previous government accountable, who are pleased that the government is not backing down here. However, all other voters from Lewica or Trzecia Droga, and less fanatical voters of the Civic Coalition, believe that while accountability is important, first, no effects are visible, and second, nothing has been done, for example, with public services, to make Poles' lives easier. The majority believes that when it comes to the standard of living, we are dealing with stagnation, or even a deterioration of this standard of living.” https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/wladza-tuska-tylko-przerwa-w-rzadach-pis-tak-moze-sie-okazac-aa-viwd-WjTP-RZM8.html -- IN HALF A YEAR, THIS IMPRESSION WILL DEEPEN EVEN FURTHER, AS NOTHING INDICATES THAT THE SITUATION IN THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE - PROF. ANDRZEJ NOWAK IN AN INTERVIEW WITH ELIZA OLCZYK IN RZ: “A sense of a lack of good governance results from the party that nominated its member, the Mayor of Warsaw, for the daily lives of Poles, is growing. And in half a year, this impression will deepen further, as nothing indicates that the situation in the country will improve.” -- TO WIN, HE NEEDS A LEAD OF NOT 100,000, BUT A MILLION VOTES - PROF. NOWAK CONTINUES WITH OLCZYK IN RZ: “On the wave of what happened in the USA, i.e., the victory of a candidate who was written off by the elites and obtained an extremely strong mandate, one can hope that Nawrocki will also achieve such a result. He needs to win with a lead of not 100,000, but a million votes.” -- IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PAINT KAROL NAWROCKI AS A RUSSIAN AGENT, AS HE IS THE ONLY PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IN POLAND WANTED BY VLADIMIR PUTIN ON AN INTERNATIONAL WARRANT - PROF. NOWAK CONTINUES IN RZ: “Politicians of the ruling coalition are already hinting that they are ready not to recognize the elections if Nawrocki wins. The Romanian example is already being cited. It is true that it will be difficult to paint Karol Nawrocki as a Russian agent, as he is the only presidential candidate in Poland wanted by Vladimir Putin on an international warrant. I also wonder how the ruling party will manage this, especially since the Supreme Court, the only body legally empowered to do so, cannot. Perhaps Prime Minister Tusk will announce that the elections are invalid. However, that would confirm that there is no trace of democracy left in Poland, only a one-man dictatorship. And to prevent this, Nawrocki's victory is needed.” -- PERHAPS THIS SHOCK WAS NECESSARY FOR PiS. BECAUSE THE PHENOMENON OF 'FAT CATS' WAS REAL, NOT INVENTED - PROF. NOWAK'S CONCLUSION WITH ELIZA OLCZYK IN RZ: “It was possible to win. Mistakes were made, with the error of pride at the forefront. They assured each other that everything would be fine, and the court system made it difficult to reach the 'king' with the true picture of the situation. A major victory for PiS was not to be expected anyway, partly due to the PO's propaganda apparatus, due to those disgusting posters by Jerzy Owsiak saying 'let's fight this evil together' hung all over Poland. But two or three percentage points more could have been gained with a better campaign. Of course, on one hand, I am a wiseacre here, diagnosing after the fact, which is easy. On the other hand – perhaps this shock was necessary for PiS. Because the phenomenon of 'fat cats' was real, not invented.” https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art41602331-prof-andrzej-nowak-brutalna-pobudka-do-dzialania-moze-byc-dla-pis-u-ozdrowiencza -- MARCIN ROMANOWSKI'S ESCAPE DOES NOT LOOK GOOD, AND TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE, IT PUSHES PIS INTO THE ARMS OF PRO-RUSSIAN VICTOR ORBAN. HOWEVER, IT IS DIFFICULT TO NOT UNDERSTAND THIS ESCAPE ON A HUMAN LEVEL. TUSK AND BODNAR'S PROSECUTORIAL ACTIONS ARE A PARODY OF THE RULE OF LAW - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA. -- CAN SUCH AN ATMOSPHERE BE DESCRIBED AS LAWFUL? - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “In this case, the chorus of politicians from the ruling camp demanding the arrest of the former Deputy Minister of Justice in front of cameras indicates the political nature of this proceeding. Prime Minister Donald Tusk took the lead here, adjudicating guilt and formulating legal qualifications on the X platform. Can such an atmosphere be described as lawful?” -- CYNICALLY SPEAKING, ROMANOWSKI WOULD BE MORE USEFUL TO KACZYŃSKI AS A MARTYR SITTTING IN ARREST - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “cynically speaking, Romanowski would be more useful to Kaczyński as a martyr sitting in arrest. The escape abroad does not look good. Ordinary people sat in custody for the Fundusz Sprawiedliwości affair: Father Michał Olszewski and two ministry officials, while a politician can organize a soft landing for himself – that's the impression one gets.” -- THE MYTH OF A PRO-RUSSIAN PiS CAN SERVE TUSK AS A PRETEXT TO CHALLENGE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IF THEY DON'T GO HIS WAY - ZAREMBA FURTHER: “Polish right-wingers will truly speak of Orban with sympathy. How will this translate into the attitude of this camp towards, for example, the war on our border? Poles' sentiments, and therefore those of the Polish right-wing, towards an embattled Ukraine have already cooled. But let us remember that Tusk is trying to build a narrative about a pro-Russian PiS not only to gain some voters. This myth can serve him as a pretext to undermine the presidential elections if they do not go his way.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-azyl-na-wegrzech-romanowski-nie-chce-byc-meczennikiem,nId,7879481 -- POLES ARE ALREADY SO USED TO MUTUALLY DENYING EACH OTHER LEGALITY THAT THEY DO NOT SEE THE DANGER THAT CROSSING FURTHER BOUNDARIES POSES TO THEIR STATE - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “Poles are already so accustomed to mutually denying each other legality that they do not see the danger that crossing further boundaries poses to their state. (...) It was not a zero-sum leap, but a long process of change for the worse. Pressure on public media has existed in the Third Republic since always and has been more or less effective. However, in this and many other areas, further boundaries have been crossed (term limits, appointment rules, or sheer chaos). After PiS lost power, all institutions previously occupied by the right-wing were used according to Donald Trump's 'logic' (which allowed him to regain power without the risk of effective accountability). State media (before PiS lost them, as effectively as it was on the border of legality) undermined the legitimacy of the new authorities, attacking the 'German state of Tusk and the December 13 coalition.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-ucieczka-z-nielegalnego-panstwa,nId,7879556 -- INTERVENTIONIST BUTTER SALES WILL NOT ADDRESS THESE PROBLEMS. HOWEVER, THEY MAY PROVOKE QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER THIS GOVERNMENT IS SERIOUS - KATARZYNA SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Interventionist butter sales will not address these problems. However, they may provoke questions about whether this government is serious. Because in a society that experiences fear and struggles with inflation, seriousness is particularly needed.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2024/12/19/skrzydlowska-kalukin-maslo-i-wina-tuska/ -- BY PROTECTING THE CATALAN SEPARATIST CARLES PUIGDEMONT, BELGIUM AND GERMANY PAVED THE WAY THAT HUNGARY IS NOW FOLLOWING BY GRANTING ASYLUM TO MARCIN ROMANOWSKI - JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI IN RZ. -- WARSAW SHOULD BRING THE PROCEDURE TO A LOGICAL CONCLUSION: PUSHING HUNGARY TO THE MARGINS OF THE UNION - BIELECKI CONTINUES IN RZ: “The matter is also being dealt with in a country bordering Ukraine, not in a distant Iberian Peninsula. Therefore, unlike Madrid, Warsaw should bring the procedure to a logical conclusion: pushing Hungary to the margins of the Union. If the authorities in Budapest do not recognize the rule of law in another member state, why should Hungary's partners see Budapest as an EU partner?” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41608211-romanowski-polski-puigdemont-jak-polityka-podwaza-zaufanie-w-ue -- 29 YEARS AGO, then-Prime Minister Józef Oleksy was accused by the Minister of the Interior Andrzej Milczanowski – during a speech in the Sejm – of ties with Russian intelligence. -- 24 YEARS AGO, MPs Halina Nowina Konopka and Witold Tomczak removed a fragment symbolizing a meteorite crushing the figure of Pope John Paul II from an installation by Italian sculptor Maurizio Cattelan at the Zachęta National Gallery of Art. -- BIRTHDAYS: Jakub Szulc. SUNDAY: Malwina Gadawa, Agnieszka Ścigaj, Tomasz Nowak, Piotr Witwicki.

Łukasz Mężyk