state of play: 12/14/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Onet: Young People Turning Away from Coalition: "They Want to Live Dignified Lives"; Also Onet: Government at Worst Poll Numbers Since Elections; CBOS: President's Approval Ratings Best This Year

Łukasz Mężyk

-- A YEAR AGO WE LEARNED THAT EWA WANAT HAD PASSED AWAY. *** -- YOUNG PEOPLE ARE TURNING AWAY FROM THE RULING COALITION. "THEY ARE THINKING ABOUT LIVING DIGNIFIED LIVES TODAY" - ONET HEADLINE - BARTOSZ SĄDER: "This is the law of propagating populist theses that fall on fertile ground. Let's remember that on the other side, we have a party that is not fulfilling its promises related to, for example, the anti-abortion law, partnership unions, and issues concerning young people's employment…" explains Katarzyna Krzywicka-Zdunek from socjolożki.pl." https://www.onet.pl/styl-zycia/onetkobieta/mlodzi-odwracaja-sie-od-rzadzacej-koalicji-mysla-dzisiaj-o-godnym-zyciu/pm81vnp,2b83378a -- THE COALITION IS ENDING THE YEAR WITH EVIDENT BREATHLESSNESS. WHAT DO THE POLLS SAY - MICHAŁ ROGALSKI IN ONET: "Donald Tusk's government is currently at its worst poll standing since the parliamentary elections. (...) The ruling coalition is ending this year with evident breathlessness. We can only expect any reshuffles in 2025, along with the start of the presidential campaign. Their result could be crucial for the coalition's future." -- THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION ON A DOWNWARD SLOPE - ROGALSKI FURTHER IN ONET: "On one hand, it was a very successful year for Civic Coalition; achieving first place in the polls and winning their first elections in 10 years were undoubtedly significant successes for this formation. However, all of this came at the cost of considerable losses for the coalition partners. The final reckoning, however, is that support for the government is at its weakest since taking power, and the wave that brought them to power subsided shortly after the elections." https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/rok-w-sondazach-ko-rosnie-kosztem-koalicjantow/z01kshc -- THE HEAD OF STATE'S APPROVAL RATINGS HAVE IMPROVED, BEST THIS YEAR - CBOS: "The head of state's approval ratings have improved. They are currently the best recorded this year. Nearly half of Poles (48%, an increase of 5 percentage points) express satisfaction with Andrzej Duda's presidency, while 45% express dissatisfaction." https://x.com/CBOS_Info/status/1867576908864467083 -- ASSESSMENTS OF POLAND'S DEMOCRACY FUNCTIONING ARE WORSE THAN A YEAR AGO - ALSO CBOS: "Assessments of democracy functioning in Poland are worse than a year ago. Those satisfied with its operation in our country (46%) have a slight advantage over those who critically assess it (44%)." https://x.com/CBOS_Info/status/1867585242145730595 -- MORE AND MORE POLES ARE TAKING A PESSIMISTIC VIEW OF THE COUNTRY'S IMMEDIATE FUTURE - OPINIA24: "More and more Poles are taking a pessimistic view of the country's immediate future. According to #PulsOpinii, as many as 56% of respondents assess the situation in Poland negatively, and 36% positively. 38% of respondents believe that the situation will worsen within 3 months (+5 pp compared to November). 44% think nothing will change." https://x.com/opinia24/status/1867156427091128534 -- PIS +2.4, KO +0.7, THE DIFFERENCE HAS REDUCED TO 0.9 PP - UNITED SURVEYS POLL FOR WP: "Civic Coalition won the poll. 33.2% of respondents want to vote for the formation led by Donald Tusk. The party recorded a 0.7 percentage point increase in support compared to the previous survey. Law and Justice came in second. Jarosław Kaczyński's party recorded a 2.4 percentage point increase in support and can count on 32.3% of votes. Confederation also made it to the podium, with 10.3% of respondents wanting to vote for them (a decrease of 0.2 percentage points)." https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/pis-odrabia-strate-najnowszy-sondaz-7102810400656032a -- THIS IS AN AVERAGE GOVERNMENT, NOT FULLY PREPARED TO GOVERN, AND TIMES REQUIRE MORE THAN MEDIOCRITY - WOJCIECH SZACKI ON X: "The first problem, in my opinion, is the fact that this is an average government, not fully prepared to govern, and the times require more than mediocrity. The second problem is governing without a program." -- FROM TIME TO TIME, THE PRIME MINISTER ANNOUNCES SOME NEW STAGE, BUT NOTHING COMES OF IT AT ALL. THERE IS REACTIVENESS, NOT LONG-TERM THINKING. UNTIL TUESDAY, THEY ARE FIGHTING CPK, FROM THURSDAY THEY ARE BUILDING IT - Szacki continues. -- IF DONALD TUSK DOESN'T GRIP THE GOVERNMENT WHERE IT HURTS, RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI WILL HAVE AN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT CAMPAIGN - SZACKI AGAIN: "And in my opinion, this means that if Donald Tusk doesn't grip the government where it hurts, Rafał Trzaskowski will have an extremely difficult campaign. A government reshuffle is needed, a direction must be chosen, and acceleration is required (which would likely displease the coalition partners). For now, we have unintentionally amusing boasts about achievements like '800+', 'CPK implementation,' or 'nuclear power plant construction.'" https://x.com/szacki/status/1867591426424680552 -- UNFORTUNATELY, I CANNOT INDICATE ANYTHING ELSE - PROF. ANTONI DUDEK IN ONET ABOUT THE GOVERNMENT'S SUCCESSES - IN AN INTERVIEW WITH SZYMON PIEGZA: "So far, it can be said that Tusk's government's biggest success is bringing EU funds to Poland. This is, of course, a significant success. However, it is not enough. We see that the idea of the Olympics in 2040 did not particularly captivate Poles. Well, unfortunately, I cannot indicate anything else." -- GOVERNMENT CHANGES NOW WOULD MEAN ADMITTING TO SOME FAILURE, AND TUSK CANNOT DO THAT - PROF. DUDEK FURTHER IN ONET: "If there is a reconstruction, it will certainly not happen before the presidential elections. The reason is simple: government changes now would mean admitting to some failure, and Tusk cannot do that. Right now, all politicians in the government will be focused on supporting Trzaskowski. For them, Trzaskowski's victory is their only chance to stay in power for the next three years." -- KNOWING THE LOGIC OF THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, WE MUST REMEMBER THAT NO ASSUMPTIONS ARE CORRECT SO FAR IN ADVANCE - DUDEK FURTHER IN ONET WITH PIEGZA: "However, let's remember that talking about election results in December is very theoretical. Knowing the logic of the presidential campaign, we must remember that no assumptions are correct so far in advance." https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/wybory-prezydenckie-beda-kluczowe-politolog-o-to-naprawde-toczy-sie-stawka/35s7cr0,79cfc278 -- RZ POLL: WHAT VIEWS DOES RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI HOLD?: "6% of respondents answered that in their opinion, Trzaskowski holds right-wing views. According to 6.3% of respondents, the mayor of Warsaw holds center-right views. 26.1% of respondents considered Trzaskowski to have liberal views. 14.4% of respondents believe that the Civic Coalition's presidential candidate holds center-left views. In the opinion of 22.8% of respondents, Trzaskowski holds left-wing views. 24.4% of survey participants could not determine Rafał Trzaskowski's views." https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41581271-sondaz-jakie-poglady-ma-rafal-trzaskowski-znamy-opinie-polakow -- RAFAŁ, PARDON MON CHER FRÈRE! - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: "Rafał Trzaskowski delighted his supporters with a conversation in French with Emmanuel Macron. However, in the context of a campaign that was supposed to de-mystify his elite image, the question arises whether this doesn't alienate him from the average voter." -- HOWEVER, IT IS DIFFICULT TO UNDERSTAND WHY THE VIDEOS WERE SHARED BY THE CAPITAL'S PRESIDENT'S COLLABORATORS, INCLUDING POLITICIANS FROM HIS CIRCLE. IT'S MISSING THAT CELEBRITIES SHOULD START POSTING VIDEOS ON INSTAGRAM - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI FURTHER: "We cannot blame supporters or ordinary internet users who were delighted that the Civic Coalition candidate spoke to a European leader in French. However, it is difficult to understand why the videos were shared by the capital's president's collaborators, including politicians from his circle. Moreover, Trzaskowski himself attached a video showing a fragment of the conversation with Macron, writing, 'This French comes in handy for something.' I don't understand why the Civic Coalition candidate wants to harm himself with such actions. It's missing that celebrities should start posting videos on Instagram where they praise his impeccable French pronunciation…" https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41578741-michal-szuldrzynski-rafal-pardon-maj-frencz -- ON THURSDAY IN WARSAW, EMMANUEL MACRON WAS RECEIVED AS THE UNDISPUTED LEADER OF THE SECOND MOST IMPORTANT COUNTRY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION. THE NEXT DAY IN PARIS, THE IMPRESSION IS DIFFERENT - JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI IN RZ: "On Thursday in Warsaw, Emmanuel Macron was received as the undisputed leader of the second most important country in the European Union. The next day in Paris, the impression is different. The president hosted François Bayrou at the Élysée Palace for nearly two hours. It was a very brutal conversation. The liberal leader, a loyal ally of Macron for eight years and who has long dreamed of taking over the government, threatened to withdraw his deputies' support for the head of state. This would mean a catastrophe for the president, who already lacks a majority in the National Assembly." https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41578911-jedrzej-bielecki-emmanuel-macron-wskazuje-nowego-premiera-francji-i-zarazem-traci-inicjatywe -- ROMANOWSKI IS BEING TRACKED BY ELITE POLICE UNITS - GRAŻYNA ZAWADKA IN RZ: "The search for Marcin Romanowski is being conducted on a massive scale. The former deputy minister is being sought by police officers who primarily deal with tracking down murderers, members of armed gangs, and the most dangerous criminals." -- THIS SHOWS THE CALIBER OF CASES THAT "SEARCHERS" ARE INVOLVED IN - ZAWADKA FURTHER IN RZ: "The search for the former deputy minister has been prioritized. It has been assigned to police officers from an elite department who, for example, tracked down Dawid M. in Turkey, in cooperation with the local police – a suspect in the high-profile murder of a young man on Nowy Świat street in Warsaw (he has since been deported to Poland). This shows the caliber of cases that "searchers" are involved in." https://www.rp.pl/przestepczosc/art41580381-wielki-poscig-za-bylym-wiceministrem-marcinem-romanowskim -- ONCE TUSK COMPLETES THE SYSTEM WITH TRZASKOWSKI AS PRESIDENT, BODNAR WILL LIKELY BECOME UNNECESSARY ANYWAY, AND HE WILL LEAVE THE MINISTRY AS A FAILED EXPERIMENT - KATARYNA IN RZ: "Politically engaged Wrzosek better reflects the vision of the prosecutor's office that Tusk would like, and he is increasingly dissatisfied that Bodnar either does not want or cannot provide it. If the minister does not set his boundaries now and does not undertake this fight, he will remain at the mercy of those who are the antithesis of the values he entered the ministry with until the end of his ministerial career, which is likely already short. But once Tusk completes the system with Trzaskowski as president, Bodnar will likely become unnecessary anyway, and he will leave the ministry as a failed experiment." https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art41573741-kataryna-minister-panuje-ale-nie-rzadzi -- WE AGREED ON THE ENTIRE ELECTION SEASON. ITS FINALE WILL BE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. THIS WILL BE A TEST OF THIS BLOC'S FUTURE - WKK IN CONVERSATION WITH PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ: "It is easier to form a coalition for elections. It proved itself in the parliamentary and local elections. Thanks to the Third Way's participation, we have the current government coalition. As for the local election results, PSL is the second party in regional assemblies. Only the European elections did not go well for us. But we agreed on the entire election season. Its finale will be the presidential elections. This will be a test of this bloc's future." -- KOSINIAK PRAISES IPN: "He has a good Vice-President, Mateusz Szpytma. He created the Ulma family museum in Markowa, is always present at Witos commemorations, and published his memoirs. I am grateful for that. This is an argument that Poland needs the IPN. And that a multi-threaded historical policy can be pursued, where there is a place for Piłsudski, Dmowski, Witos, Daszyński. The IPN was established thanks to PSL votes; we overturned President Aleksander Kwaśniewski's veto on this matter, together with the right and the Freedom Union. We were never for the liquidation of the IPN. And we won't be." https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art41573621-wladyslaw-kosiniak-kamysz-czterodniowy-tydzien-pracy-to-byloby-uderzenie-w-rozwoj-polski -- ONE YEAR AFTER TAKING OFFICE: CYNICISM AND THE PRIME MINISTER'S EMPTY HANDS - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: "One year after taking power, Tusk's government is assessed negatively by over half of Poles. Its supporters blame PiS, the president, and even the coalition nature of this team. In reality, the cause is the cynicism and programmatic emptiness of the rulers, especially those from Civic Coalition. If there are exceptions to this rule, they are few." -- IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND A SINGLE ECONOMIC INDICATOR WHERE TUSK'S GOVERNMENT SURPASSES ITS PREDECESSORS. IT'S EITHER JUST AS BAD, OR EVEN WORSE - ZAREMBA FURTHER IN INTERIA: "It is difficult to find a single economic indicator where Tusk's government surpasses its predecessors. It's either just as bad, or even worse. The current team can, of course, point to international conditions that favor, for example, persistent inflation. Or which force Poland into intensive rearmament, increasing the budget deficit." -- THERE ARE AREAS WHERE THE CURRENT AUTHORITIES ARE FOLLOWING THE PATH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. PIS WAS ACCUSED OF APPROPRIATING POLAND THROUGH THE PARTY-IZATION OF ADMINISTRATION, ECONOMY, AND VARIOUS INSTITUTIONS. AFTER DECEMBER 13, 2023, THERE HAS BEEN AN INVASION OF NOMINEES OF THE CURRENT AUTHORITIES INTO THE SAME POSITIONS - ZAREMBA FURTHER IN INTERIA: "Marshal Szymon Hołownia announces depoliticization of contests in state-owned companies, but he cannot push his own bill through the Sejm. This, incidentally, contributes to the failure of even minor promises. In this new parliament, there was supposed to be no 'freezer,' i.e., a procedure for blocking bills. Not only does it exist, but it also halts inconvenient initiatives coming even from the center of the coalition itself." -- THEY ARGUE TOO INFREQUENTLY, BECAUSE IF THEY ARGUED, IT WOULD MEAN THEY WERE DOING SOMETHING - CLAIMS ZAREMBA: "It is also not true that the difficulty in coordinating joint projects by the four main coalition parties is particularly responsible for the stalemate. The opposition sometimes announces this: instead of acting, they argue. And I will write that they argue too infrequently, because if they argued, it would mean they were doing something." -- THERE IS INCREASING TALK OF SOME CONTROL OVER THE INTERNET - WRITES ZAREMBA: "Of course, in theory, it could cost him defeat in the 2027 parliamentary elections. But I was concerned by the comments full of interest from Civic Coalition politicians, led by the Minister of Interior and Administration, Siemoniak, about annulling the elections in Romania. There is increasingly open talk of some control over the internet. The question of how we govern may be definitively replaced by another: how we talk about it, making life increasingly difficult for the competition." https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-po-roku-rzadzenia-cynizm-i-puste-rece-premiera,nId,7875100 -- MINISTRY OF CLIMATE AFTER A YEAR. GOOD INTENTIONS ARE NOT ENOUGH AGAINST THE ANTI-NATURE POLICY OF TUSK - KATARZYNA KOJZAR IN OKO.PRESS: "Hopes were much higher – for the entire ruling coalition, which went into the elections with environmental slogans on its lips. Today, almost nothing remains of them. The government found decisions that would calm protesting farmers and gain the favor of drivers from Warsaw's Wisłostrada, annoyed by traffic jams caused by protests of the Last Generation, to be more important. Prime Minister Tusk has already announced that the police will react 'decisively' to protests and civil climate disobedience. It is easier, after all, to send services after activists terrified by the climate catastrophe than to accelerate transformation, protect animals, or realize that we are threatened more by the thoughtless devastation of nature than by people from whom we shield ourselves with barriers." https://oko.press/ministerstwo-klimatu-i-srodowiska-po-roku -- I HAVE LIBERATED MYSELF INTELLECTUALLY FROM MISTAKES THAT HAVE THEIR SOURCE IN MOSCOW, RUSSIAN THINKING. I HAVE LIBERATED MYSELF FROM ANTI-SEMITISM, NATIONALISM, FANATICISM, AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, FROM THE MISTAKE OF SEEING THE CHURCH'S ROLE AS PART OF THE POLISH STATE - ROMAN GIERTYCH IN CONVERSATION WITH EWA KALETA IN GW: "If you look at my life, yes, that's how it looks. I have intellectually liberated myself from mistakes that have their source in Moscow, Russian thinking. I have liberated myself from anti-Semitism, nationalism, fanaticism, and most importantly, from the mistake of seeing the Church's role as part of the Polish state. I have liberated myself from the old order, whose roots go back to the Battle of the Milvian Bridge, where Constantine and his troops won the civil war. His successors made Christianity a state religion. This mistake is still present in the Polish Church." -- THE CONCEPT OF STATE LIFE ROOTED IN SANACJA CREATED THIS MONSTER WE ARE FACING TODAY, WHICH IS PIS - GIERTYCH FURTHER WITH KALETA: "Every day we see the effects of this presence. Religious fanaticism is an expression of this mistake. The concept of state life rooted in Sanacja, the May Coup, created this monster we are facing today, which is PiS. It is an emanation of evil in our history, an emanation of mistakes that have been made." -- MY FATHER CHANGED, JUST LIKE ME. WHO WOULD HAVE THOUGHT THAT PROFESSOR GIERTYCH WOULD CALL TO VOTE FOR RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI IN THE LAST ELECTIONS, RIGHT? - SAYS GIERTYCH TO KALETA: "My father has changed, just like me. Who would have thought that Professor Giertych would call to vote for Rafał Trzaskowski in the last elections, right? My father graduated from Oxford as one of the best students in his year, he trained himself intellectually throughout his life, he had many scientific publications on tree genetics in the world's most important scientific periodicals. He had the conditions to change." -- PLEASE CONSIDER HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE STOPPED BELIEVING IN POLAND BECAUSE OF THAT CLOWN, FATHER RYDZYK. HE IS A CARICATURE OF PRIESTHOOD - GIERTYCH FURTHER IN GW: "You haven't asked this question, but for me, God is above all love. The clergy in Poland sometimes even repels people from this love. This is my biggest pain. Please consider how many people have stopped believing in Poland because of that clown, Father Rydzyk. He is a caricature of priesthood." -- I HATE LOSING. I HATE IT. WHEN SOMEONE HATES LOSING, THEY HAVE GREAT DETERMINATION TO WIN - GIERTYCH STILL IN GW: "And I hate losing. I hate it. When someone hates losing, they have great determination to win. I always sense this, including in others. I never spout platitudes; I am always convinced. Every day I look for something that will convince me. Money is somewhere on the side; I can take a case for free, just to win." -- WE CAN AVOID WAR. BUT THE CONDITION IS THE DELEGALIZATION, ANNIHILATION OF PIS - SAYS GIERTYCH IN GW: "We can avoid this. But the condition is the delegalization, the annihilation of PiS. We must delegalize collaboration with Putin. PiS are traitors. In my opinion, they were preparing for an alliance with Orbán, Le Pen, and Russia after their victory in Ukraine. PiS members collaborated with Putin through Orbán. It's not just about economic crimes, about stealing state money, but about the treason that was being prepared." -- I HAVE THREE DAUGHTERS AND I STRIVE FOR THE BEST POSSIBLE LAW FOR WOMEN - ROMAN GIERTYCH FURTHER IN CONVERSATION WITH EWA KALETA IN GW: "I have three daughters and I strive for the best possible law for women. I proposed that abortion up to the 12th week be prosecuted solely at the request of the woman who underwent it. In legal terms, this is changing a public prosecution offense to a request-based one. In such a procedure, rapes were once prosecuted." https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31530397,roman-giertych-mam-troje-corek-i-staram-sie-o-prawo-jak-najlepsze.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Joanna Kluzik-Rostkowska, Beata Lubecka, Michał Szczerba, Adam Kądziela, Natalia Czartoryska. SUNDAY: Krzysztof Dołowy, Adam Pieczyński, Agnieszka Odorowicz, Jagna Marczułajtis-Walczak, Łukasz Bajbak, Jerzy Dziewulski.

Łukasz Mężyk