state of play: 08/31/2024

The State of Play: Zaremba on Tusk's Faith in Polarization and Voters Forgiving Their Own; Stankiewicz Predicts Czarnek Will Be the New Face of PiS

Łukasz Mężyk

-- THE STATE AND LAW IN POLAND, AFTER EIGHT YEARS OF RIDICULE AND EXPLOITATION FOR PARTICULAR INTERESTS, NEEDS GRAVITY AND RESPECT – PROF. MARCIN MATCZAK IN GW: “The state and law in Poland, after eight years of ridicule and exploitation for particular interests, needs gravity and respect. This is not built by buffoonery, by the satisfaction of putting someone down, just as a coach's profanity does not build respect for Legia. Triumphalism is foolish and unproductive, which we could discuss, moving from a person, through an event, to an idea – for which I sincerely thank you.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31256869,dlaczego-klasa-srednia-woli-rozmawiac-o-thermomiksie-i-krawacie.html -- IN SHORT: A REAL SPECTER OF BANKRUPTCY – JACEK GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK: “So, even if the Commission does not take all the subsidies from PiS, the minister can do so by not sending transfers. And this can continue until the end of this Sejm term. This would be a major blow, as PiS would be left with leftover money for the 2025 presidential campaign. And until the 2027 parliamentary election, they would not receive a penny from the budget. In short: a real specter of bankruptcy.” – THE MORE THEY SHOOT AT US, THE STRONGER THE RIGHT-WING VOTER WILL SOLIDARIZE WITH US – SAYS A PiS MP – CONTINUES GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK: “A collection of donations for the party has also begun. Our interlocutors from PiS are convinced that the party will survive. – The more they shoot at us, the stronger the right-wing voter will solidarize with us – says a PiS MP. The lack of money will only hit PiS over time.” -- KACZYŃSKI MUST STRICTLY ADHERE TO THE RECOMMENDATIONS REGARDING TAKING MEDICATION, WHICH IS ALSO MONITORED BY HIS CLOSE PARTY CIRCLE – CONTINUES GĄDEK: “At one point, the risk was high; Kaczyński's health could have deteriorated rapidly, which would have been devastating for him and the party. A PiS politician: – The Chairman feared that something might happen to him. He is physically weaker and weaker. If something were to take him out for a long time, the party would be headless. Kaczyński must strictly adhere to the recommendations regarding taking medication, which is also monitored by his close party circle. – How can a single, adult man take care of himself? – laughs one of the interlocutors from PiS. – We have to look after him.” -- JAROSŁAW HAS TROUBLE KNEELING AT THESE FEW MOMENTS OF MASS – TELLS AN INTERLOCUTOR OF "NEWSWEEK" – CONTINUES GĄDEK: “Kaczyński likes to visit a small church located away from his home in Żoliborz. Only about a dozen people attend mass there. It's very intimate. – Jarosław has trouble kneeling at these few moments of mass – says a "Newsweek" interlocutor, who wishes him well.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/tajemnice-rezygnacji-kaczynskiego-bal-sie-ze-cos-moze-mu-sie-stac-kulisy/vbs14rj,452ad802 -- THE CONFUSION OF MONEY "FOR CAMPAIGN" AND "FOR THE STATE" IS UNDOUBTEDLY A SIN OF PiS. YET THE PKW (NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION) HAS SINNED WITH THE ONE-SIDEDNESS OF ITS FINDINGS. THIS IS NOT HOW PUBLIC LIFE IS REPAIRED – PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “The same applies to previous campaigns, including those that ended in victory for Civic Platform (now Civic Coalition). While they could only serve as comparative material, the eagerness with which the PKW accepted the reports of all the parties currently in power is striking to me. Presenting PiS, in Tusk's words, as a "party of scoundrels and thieves," as the sole perpetrator of pathologies in Poland takes on the dimension of propaganda rather than diagnosis.” -- WILL THE CONSTRUCTION OF A KIND OF SANITARY CORDON AROUND THE RIGHT NOT SCARE OFF SOME SUPPORTERS? – CONTINUES ZAREMBA: “PiS politicians can at best place their hope in mobilizing their supporters – public collections "for the party" may contribute to this. But will the construction of a kind of sanitary cordon around the right not scare off some of them?” -- NOT SO MUCH A REPAIR AS THE UNLEASHING OF A SPIRAL OF REVENGE – ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION IN INTERIA: “The effect may therefore be not so much a repair as the unleashing of a spiral of revenge. At the same time... even today, PiS and Confederation politicians claim that Tusk, by going for frontal clashes, assumes that he will not lose the next elections. He is supposed to win them by consistently weakening the opposition. This could mean that the current PKW decision will not permanently heal anything, will not set any precedent. The current authorities may punish PiS, only to spectacularly step into its shoes afterwards.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-sluszna-kara-czy-polowanie-po-werdykcie-pkw,nId,7769547 -- BUT HOW TO TALK TO MORAWIECKI IF HE IS SIMULTANEOUSLY BEING LIQUIDATED THROUGH ACCOUNTABILITY PROCEEDINGS? – CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “If the authorities were to start talking to the opposition (even, and especially, after its real weakening), it would be necessary to talk to Morawiecki rather than Czarnek, Szydło, not to mention Ziobro or Macierewicz. But how to talk to Morawiecki if he is simultaneously being liquidated through accountability proceedings?” -- A TEMPTING, BUT RISKY SOLUTION. RISKY FOR A STATE IN WHICH HALF THE CITIZENS, AND PERHAPS EVEN MORE THAN HALF, HOLD EXTREME OR MODERATELY RIGHT-WING VIEWS – CONTINUES MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “However, if Tusk does not choose any partner for talks on the right (even if conducted in the deepest submerged submarine), he will have to opt for the complete dismantling of all structures and environments of today's right. A tempting solution, but risky. Risky for a state in which half the citizens, and perhaps even more than half, hold extreme or moderately right-wing views. Which, incidentally, Tusk knows perfectly well. His stance on the border, immigrants, and the army demonstrates this. Of course, he himself can be left, right, and center. However, in a multi-party democracy, this is not the most convenient solution.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-przestepstwo-kara-i-ciag-dalszy-po-decyzji-pkw,nId,7769859 -- DONALD TUSK SEEMS TO BELIEVE THAT HATRED FOR PiS AND HOLDING PREDECESSORS ACCOUNTABLE IS ENOUGH TO RETAIN ELECTORAL SUPPORT. IS HE RIGHT? WE WILL FIND OUT IN THE NEW POLITICAL SEASON – PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ: “PiS adds signals of self-destruction to strong external pressure. If anything offers it a chance, it is the poor governance of the current coalition. Apart from internal disputes within its ranks, its list of ideas is meager, and the chaos in finances is real. Even "Gazeta Wyborcza" is complaining about it. However, Tusk is convinced of the power of polarization. Voters are expected to forgive their own what they would not forgive outsiders. Is the Prime Minister right about this? We will find out in the new political season.” -- PEOPLE WHO TAKE THE TROUBLE TO DELVE INTO POLITICS UNDERSTAND THAT VARIOUS SHIELDS, THOSE MYTHICAL SHIELDS, HAVE BEEN LIQUIDATED – CONTINUES ZAREMBA IN RZ: “People who take the trouble to delve into politics understand that various shields, those mythical shields, have been liquidated. They were scrapped because the budget could not sustain them. This gives PiS the opportunity to formulate a general thesis: 'When we govern, there is money. When they govern, it immediately starts to run out.' The first signs of the new government tinkering with the 800+ program are appearing.” -- ONE GETS THE IMPRESSION THAT THE PARTIES OF THE NEW COALITION HAVE REACHED THE STATE OF GERMAN PARTIES FORMING OLAF SCHOLZ'S GOVERNMENT – STATES ZAREMBA IN RZ: “For now, however, one gets the impression that the parties of the new coalition have reached the state of German parties forming Olaf Scholz's government. The drop in polls has pushed each of them: the Social Democrats, the Greens, and the Liberals to escalate their own programs and identities. However, in Germany, this happened after several years in power. In our case – much faster.” https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art41042661-piotr-zaremba-czy-wyborca-ci-wszystko-wybaczy -- THE NUMBERS DO NOT ALLOW FOR THE ASSERTION THAT A "WOMEN'S HELL" HAS PREVAILED IN POLAND AFTER 2020 – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI: “According to data provided to me by the Ministry of Health, in 2022 (the latest available data), 6 women died in Poland during pregnancy, childbirth, and the postpartum period. From the numbers presented by Onet a year ago, it was clear that there were 7 such deaths in 2021. In 2020 (i.e., still during the time when the old abortion regulations were in force), there were 9 such deaths. In previous years (going back from 2019), there were 4, 5, 9, 9, 6, 8, and 7 deaths (in 2013). Even assuming that these numbers are underestimated and there were actually more such tragedies – because every such death is a terrible tragedy – there is no correlation between the number of deaths and the 2020 Constitutional Tribunal decision (which came into effect in 2021) repealing the third ground for legal abortion.” -- PERHAPS TUSK DOES NOT FEEL THE NEED TO RUSH BECAUSE THERE IS NO "WOMEN'S HELL" TO FIGHT – SZUŁDRZYŃSKI'S CONCLUSION IN RZ: “Perhaps Tusk knows this, and – although the legalization of abortion is important for part of the electorate – he himself does not feel the need to rush, because there is no hell to fight.” https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art41042461-michal-szuldrzynski-pieklo-kobiet-kontra-statystyka -- IT IS PRECISELY CZARNEK WHO WILL BECOME THE NEW FACE OF PiS – ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ IN NEWSWEEK: “He knows how to charm the chairman like few others, while simultaneously controlling him. However, he did not formally hold important positions in the party. He was waiting for his moment to play for a serious position – and this is that moment. With Błaszczak's not overly pushy charisma and the low recognition of the younger party members, it is precisely Czarnek who will become the new face of PiS. No, this is not a coincidence. He worked hard for it. And nothing like this could have happened without the chairman's will.” -- CZARNEK IS BEGINNING HIS OWN GAME FOR A NEW DISTRIBUTION OF POWER ON THE RIGHT – CONTINUES STANKIEWICZ: “By entering the "board," Czarnek is beginning his own game for a new distribution of power on the right. Kaczyński's decisions, which marginalize others dreaming of leadership – Mateusz Morawiecki and Beata Szydło – serve him well. Even if the chairman has not yet made the final choice of his successor, he has certainly cast Czarnek in the role of a favorite.” https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/uwodzi-prezesa-jednoczesnie-nim-sterujac-oto-nowa-twarz-pis/41k107p -- 44TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE AUGUST AGREEMENTS. -- BIRTHDAYS: Stefan Frankiewicz, Henryk Woźniakowski. SUNDAY: Mirosław Chojecki, Urszula Augustyn.

Łukasz Mężyk