-- BIELAN ON THE PIS LISTS FOR THE EP: THE OFFICIAL PRESENTATION OF OUR CANDIDATES WILL TAKE PLACE ON MAY 2ND - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/04/29 -- THE GOVERNMENT'S THREAT IS THE EMERGING ANXIETY AMONG VOTERS. HALF A YEAR INTO OFFICE, WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE FUTURE OF PROJECTS STARTED DURING THE PIS ERA WILL BE - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA ON TWITTER: “The government's threat is the emerging anxiety among voters. Half a year into office, we don't know what the future of projects started during the PiS era will be. There is a lack of clear communication regarding CPK, nuclear energy, and many other investments. Any decision is better than uncertainty.” https://x.com/DWielowieyska/status/1784521254516502687 -- HOWEVER, IT IS NOT SERIOUS THAT AFTER JUST FOUR MONTHS IN OFFICE, THREE MINISTERS ARE LEAVING - IN THE ONET PODCAST, DESCRIBED BY KAMIL DZIUBKA AND DOMINIKA DŁUGOSZ: “However, it is not serious that after just four months in office, three ministers responsible for the key areas of PiS accountability – state media, uniformed services, and state-owned companies – are leaving. Sienkiewicz had an arrangement with Tusk from the beginning: he would kick PiS out of TVP, and then he'd head off to Brussels for a short stint. Indeed, bending the law, he did kick PiS out of TVP – and that's all he achieved. Today, TVP is barely surviving. Its viewership is dramatic, and the President and the PiS head of the National Broadcasting Council have cut off TVP's funding. But this is no longer Sienkiewicz's problem, as it turns out. Furthermore, the left-wing Deputy Minister of Culture, Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus, who has a chance of winning a European mandate from Greater Poland, is also running for the European Parliament – which means the leadership of this ministry will practically cease to exist before it has done anything.” -- WE HEAR VARIOUS REASONS FOR THIS DEPARTURE, WHICH KIERNSIŃSKI PROBABLY DID NOT DESIRE - INCLUDING HIS PEOPLE'S APPETITES FOR POSITIONS IN COMPANIES - CONTINUES IN THE ONET PODCAST: “However, the biggest sensation is the departure of 'Kierwa,' who hasn't even had time to settle into his powerful ministry. We hear various reasons for this departure, which Kierwiński probably did not desire – including his people's appetites for positions in companies. Much indicates that Tusk wants a more trusted man in this ministry, such as the former Minister of National Defence, and now coordinator of the special services, Tomasz Siemoniak.” -- WHAT IS HAPPENING IN MAZOVIA AND IN WARMIA/MAZURY/PODLASIE IS A DISGRACE. BUT WHAT TRULY OFFENDS US – AND WE ARE QUITE RESILIENT – IS THE INTERNAL-PIS WAR FOR MANDATES IN THE ŁÓDŹ REGION - CONTINUES IN THE ONET PODCAST: “What is happening in Mazovia and in Warmia/Mazury/Podlasie is a disgrace. But what truly offends us – and we are quite resilient – is the internal PiS war for mandates in the Łódź region. The leader here, or in the capital, was supposed to be the current PiS MEP Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, once a member of Civic Platform. JSW took offense, as he is wont to do, and it appears he will not be running – like many other current PiS MEPs who have fallen out with Nowogrodzka. These are often people who have been close to Kaczyński for years, such as former PiS spokesperson Beata Mazurek, former member of the National Media Council Elżbieta Kruk, former head of the PiS delegation in the European Parliament Prof. Ryszard Legutko, or former Vice-President of the European Parliament Prof. Zdzisław Krasnodębski.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/stan-wyjatkowy-rzeznia-w-pis-tusk-wyrzuca-ministrow-do-brukseli/8qnz971,79cfc278 -- ON THE BACKGROUND OF KIERNSIŃSKI'S CANDIDACY - ŁUKASZ ROGOJSZ IN INTERIA: “Surprise and lack of clear communication about what's next have caused a wave of speculation within Civic Platform about the possible reasons for Marcin Kierwiński's departure to Brussels. There was no shortage of historical references and conspiracy theories among them. Especially in Warsaw's Civic Platform, where Kierwiński has had extensive influence and impact on the careers of many activists for years. 'This is the same trick as with Piskorski back then. Donald doesn't trust him,' one politician told us, indicating that Kierwiński has been able to align himself with successive Civic Platform leaders for years, which is why none of them consider him 'their man.' 'Now he's a Tusk supporter again, but he'll never be a trusted man of Tusk's. Donald prefers his own people; he secures himself; his favor is fickle,' added our interlocutor.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/raport-wybory-do-parlamentu-europejskiego-2024/news-donald-tusk-zaskoczyl-wszystkich-chodzi-o-czlowieka-numer-dw,nId -- NEITHER KACZYŃSKI NOR TUSK VALUES THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “In these European elections, the composition of Law and Justice's lists is not a surprise. Kaczyński has long considered European – and more broadly, foreign – policy as secondary to domestic party politics. Therefore, at the 'electable' spots in the European Parliament are only people he needs for various party arrangements in the country. Some (Obajtek, Kamiński, and Wąsik) are to be shielded from 'Tusk's torture,' while others (Szydło) Kaczyński still wants to get rid of from the country. However, all personnel on these lists and every percentage point of votes gained or lost in these elections are significant for Kaczyński only in the context of domestic and intra-party politics. A much bigger surprise is the composition of the Civic Coalition's lists. So 'un-European,' so overwhelmingly subordinate to the dynamics of domestic politics. Prime Minister Donald Tusk has used the European elections solely to carry out a government reconstruction that was surprising (in terms of timing and scale). For now, he has not provided any convincing justification for this crucial political maneuver.” -- EVEN IF ONE PERSON SURPASSES THEIR COMPETITORS BY A HEAD, WE CEASE TO BE SURE WHETHER WE ARE OBSERVING A DEEPLY CONSIDERED POLITICAL TURNAROUND OR A WHIM - CONTINUES MICHALSKI: “Of course, Donald Tusk is at the peak of his political abilities today, but the entirely unilateral leadership of the party, government, and country carries enormous risks. Even if this one person surpasses their competitors by a head, given these obvious communication gaps, we cease to be sure whether we are observing a deeply considered political turnaround or a whim.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-ani-kaczynski-ani-tusk-nie-cenia-europarlamentu,nId,7475723 -- CIVIC PLATFORM HAS ADOPTED THE WARLIKE RHETORIC THAT PIS HAS BEEN BRANDISHING FOR A YEAR AND A HALF, AND IT IS AROUND THIS THAT IT IS TRYING TO MOBILIZE ITS VOTERS - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “In the election campaign for the European Parliament, an interesting role reversal can be observed. Civic Platform has adopted the warlike rhetoric that PiS has been brandishing for a year and a half, and it is around this that it is trying to mobilize its voters.” -- FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF DOMESTIC POLITICS, TUSK ALSO NEEDS A VICTORY TO CLEARLY SHOW THAT HE HAS A STRONG AND ADDITIONALLY REFRESHED MANDATE - CONTINUES SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “From the perspective of domestic politics, Tusk also needs a victory to clearly show that he has a strong and additionally refreshed mandate to govern the country. Ousting PiS, even by a hair's breadth, would demonstrate that this was a double referendum, concerning not only the future of the Union but also the future of Poland. And that the vision represented by the strongest player in the October 15th coalition still enjoys the greatest support among Poles.” -- TUSK WANTS TO HAVE MORE MEPs THAN THE CDU - CLAIMS SZUŁDRZYŃSKI: “Although at first glance the statement that Civic Platform wants to beat Germany might sound irrational, anyone who understands European politics will quickly grasp what it's about. If the delegation of Polish MEPs were larger than the German one, they would be calling the shots, appointing heads of important committees, etc. With Tusk's personal popularity in Europe and the relative weakness of other European leaders – such as social democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz or President Emmanuel Macron, who is slowly leaving office – the Polish prime minister could secure a significant stake in the negotiations for the top EU positions that will begin shortly after the elections.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40267231-michal-szuldrzynski-czy-tusk-i-kaczynski-zmienia-wybory-do-pe-w-referendum-o-przyszlosci-unii -- PIS, PLAYING ON ANTI-EU SENTIMENT AND FRIENDSHIP WITH PUTIN'S FRIEND, PRESENTS ITSELF AS A TROJAN HORSE FOR THE EU'S OPPONENTS, AND AT BEST, A BRAKE ON THE UNION - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “PiS, by playing on anti-EU sentiment and befriending Putin's friend, presents itself as a Trojan horse for the EU's opponents, and at best, a brake on the Union. Morawiecki has given Tusk a gift. The European elections will be about security. And only a strong Poland is safe in the Union. PiS has not strengthened Poland in the EU, nor has it achieved personal successes, such as the President of the European Parliament, which Jerzy Buzek was. However, PiS still has something that Civic Coalition may not have on June 9th – mobilization capacity. Tusk faces a great challenge to convince Poles to go to the European elections. The future of the Union will depend on the EP elections, but so will the balance of power before the presidential and parliamentary elections in Poland. Jarosław Kaczyński is counting on a tenth consecutive prestigious victory and a swift return to power. This is not an impossible scenario.” https://www.rp.pl/analizy/art40266981-jacek-nizinkiewicz-pis-przyjazniac-sie-z-przyjacielem-putina-moze-przegrac-wybory-europejskie -- DONALD TUSK DOES NOT WANT TO REPEAT THE MISTAKE FROM THE LOCAL ELECTIONS. HE HAS BEEN FIGHTING FOR TURNOUT FROM THE VERY BEGINNING - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK: “For the political significance of this post, the last sentence is crucial – about the votes that were missing. Clearly, the leader of the Civic Coalition, mindful of his experiences from the regional elections, has this time begun the game for maximum mobilization and boosting turnout right at the beginning of the campaign.” -- APART FROM FRIGHTENING PEOPLE WITH PIS – ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOMETHING TO BE FRIGHTENED OF – IT WOULD BE GOOD FOR THE GOVERNMENT COALITION PARTIES TO ALSO ADDRESS THESE PROBLEMS IN THEIR CAMPAIGN AND RESPOND TO JUSTIFIED SOCIAL CONCERNS - CONTINUES MAJMUREK: “Frightening people with PiS, which, together with Le Pen and the European far-right, wants to dismantle the Union from within, will surely mobilize a portion of the voters of the parties forming the government. The question is, how much? The fear of PiS as a party advocating Polexit has its limits as a mobilization fuel. Especially since some of the issues raised by populists refer to real social concerns – especially those related to the costs of the green transition. Apart from frightening people with PiS – although there is something to be frightened of – it would be good for the government coalition parties to also address these problems in their campaign and respond to justified social concerns.” https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/tusk-nie-chce-powtarzac-bledu-tym-razem-od-poczatku-walczy-o-frekwencje/4z9phd6 -- I AM NOT AN OPTIMIST. I HAVE NO HOPE THAT THE QUALITY OF ENACTED LAW WILL BE MUCH BETTER THIS TERM THAN UNDER PIS RULE - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “Politicians know that the quality of enacted law has an impact on the economy, but they are thinking about the next elections – with a horizon of at most 4 years. Therefore, they create laws that will ensure them the support of various voter groups (or at least they hope they will) and that are convenient for them, as well as for the officials with whom they live in symbiosis. When they need to quickly pass a law, they introduce a parliamentary bill for debate and stipulate that the law comes into effect on the day it is signed by the president. They do not conduct a thorough impact assessment, because they have already boasted about the bill being processed and do not want to hear that its effects will be worse than promised. Therefore, I have little hope that under the rule of the democratic coalition, laws will be enacted with greater consideration, supported by reliable analyses, serving the general public rather than politicians, supporting officials, and selected voter groups and lobbyists.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30926667,politykom-nie-zalezy-na-dobrym-prawie.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Jarosław Duda, Piotr Gontarczyk, Vadim Makarenko, Piotr Barełkowski, Jacek Bendykowski.