-- POLITICAL PLAN FOR FRIDAY: VOTES ON ABORTION IN THE SEJM, TUSK WITH THE GREEK PRIME MINISTER, A SERIES OF MEETINGS FOR TRZASKOWSKI IN MAŁOPOLSKA AND PODKARPACIE, NOWACKA, LESZCZYNA, AND NITRAS ON HEALTH EDUCATION: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/04/12/polityczny-plan-piatku-w-sejmie-glosowania-ws-aborcji-tusk-z-premierem-grecji-seria-spotkan-trzaskowskiego-w-malopolsce-i-na-podkarpaciu-nowacka-leszczyna-i-nitras-o-edukacji-zdrowotnej/ -- DOMAŃSKI: INFLATION AT THE END OF THIS YEAR WILL BE AROUND PROBABLY 4-5%, I HAVE BEEN OBLIGATED TO PRESENT A PLAN FOR INTRODUCING A TAX-FREE AMOUNT OF PLN 60,000 DURING THE TERM AND WE ARE WORKING ON SUCH A PLAN IN THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/04/12 -- IN THREE MONTHS THE SEJM WORKED FOR 15 DAYS. THE SENATE HAS NOTHING TO DO - IZABELA KACPRZAK IN RZ: “The X term of the Sejm has passed only 19 laws in five months, which were minor amendments – according to an analysis of parliamentary statistics by Rzeczpospolita. This is not much, considering that the government changed on December 13th. - There is clearly no legislative initiative, it is work at 'idle speed'. There is growing impatience in local governments that have presented ready-made solutions. I don't understand why such simple changes, like those concerning school networks or regional environmental protection funds (WFOŚ), cannot be quickly adopted – Senator Frankiewicz tells us. – It's true, we have nothing to work on. Senate sessions, for example, last 1.5 hours, which is an unprecedented situation – admits Senator Frankiewicz.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art40150771-statystyki-pracy-parlamentu-mizerne-wyniki-sejmu-a-senat-nie-ma-co-robic -- ABORTION IN THE SEJM: EVERYTHING DEPENDS ON THE PSL - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO.PRESS: “According to our information, one or two PSL MPs will vote against. The rest are to abstain from voting. 'This issue is difficult for some people, we asked such people to abstain.' Our sources say that the PSL leadership encouraged its MPs to do just that: if you don't want to support the proposals of Lewica and KO, abstain, but don't vote against. (...) If the predictions of our interlocutors in the PSL come true, two votes against from this club mean a certain 212 votes against rejecting the liberalizing proposals in the first reading. Even if the rest of the PSL MPs abstain or do not show up for the vote, and the rest of the October 15th Coalition appears in the Sejm in full, there will be 215 votes in favor (KO, Lewica, Poland 2050, and unaffiliated MPs Adam Gomoła and Monika Pawłowska). We can also add at least four votes from the PSL (Kłopotek, Pasławska, Paszyk, and Sroka). That is: 219. This is a safe majority, provided that the entire Third Way club actually votes in favor of further proceedings on the proposals liberalizing abortion law, as announced by the leaders.” https://oko.press/aborcja-w-sejmie-wszystko-zalezy-od-psl-u -- POLL: PROMISES A PROBLEM FOR THE OCTOBER 15TH COALITION. THE MAJORITY OF POLES DO NOT SEE THEIR FULFILLMENT - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “Just a few weeks ago, KO representatives were envisioning winning as many as seven regional assemblies and a fierce battle even for PiS's strongest stronghold, the Podkarpackie Voivodeship. That didn't happen. Why? In an Ipsos poll for OKO.press and TOK conducted just before the local elections, as many as 51% of respondents believe that the ruling coalition is not fulfilling its election promises. 40% of respondents disagree, of whom only 9% firmly state that the coalition is fulfilling its promises. And these proportions are thought-provoking.” -- SOMETHING ELSE SHOULD WORRY THE STRATEGISTS OF THE OCTOBER 15TH COALITION: THE DONALD TUSK GOVERNMENT, IN THE PERCEPTION OF VOTERS, IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING A CIVIC COALITION GOVERNMENT - CONTINUED BY DANIELEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “In the short term, this may be beneficial for KO and make it easier to undermine the standing of its allies. But in the long term, it could prove to be a fatal consequence of events for the ruling coalition: the greater the proportion of Third Way and Lewica voters who do not feel that Tusk's cabinet is also fulfilling their parties' promises, the more alienated they will feel from the political process and the less likely they will be to vote in subsequent elections. And the votes of those who remain politically active may not be enough to defeat the combined forces of PiS and Confederation.” -- THE MAIN CONCLUSION FROM OUR STUDY? IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT THE ACCOUNTABILITY MOBILIZATION MOTIVATION WILL ALSO NOT WORK WELL BEFORE THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS - DANIELEWSKI'S CONCLUSION: “The main conclusion from our study? It seems very likely that the accountability mobilization motivation will also (and perhaps especially) not work well before the European elections. The October 15th Coalition must look towards the future and show electorates other than KO voters that it is fulfilling, or at least beginning to fulfill, election promises that are important to them. Otherwise, frustration may grow, and with it, mobilization will decrease, and consequently, the results of the ruling parties.” https://oko.press/sondaz-obietnice-klopotem-koalicji-15-pazdziernika -- ONE COULD ACTUALLY EXPECT A CERTAIN BONUS FOR THE WINNERS IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS - PROF. RAFAŁ MATYJA IN CONVERSATION WITH DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “One could indeed expect a certain bonus for the winners immediately after the parliamentary elections. However, this bonus was weakened by two things. Firstly: small towns and rural municipalities went to the polls much more willingly than large urban centers. And secondly: the main parties of the October 15th Coalition did not focus on the regional assembly elections. They considered the municipal elections more prestigious and important, especially in areas where they quarreled among themselves and fielded separate candidates. In other words, the reason for this result is the turnout in cities and the reduced emphasis by the ruling parties on regional assembly elections, especially in those voivodeships where the balance could have been tipped in their favor, as in Małopolska.” -- ABOVE ALL, PIS RECOVERED. THEY HAD A SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER MOTIVATION TO ACT, ESPECIALLY WHERE THEY RULED - CONTINUED PROF. MATYJA WITH WIELOWIEYSKA: “But above all, PiS has pulled itself together. They had a significantly greater motivation to act, especially where they ruled. Activists realized that there would be no more interesting job offers from the central government in Warsaw, so anything that gave them some political life was tied to winning in the regions. And the determination on the part of Platform, Third Way, and New Left among local activists was simply much lower.” -- NOW KACZYŃSKI WAS AFTER LOSING THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, AND THESE FIVE VOIVODESHIPS ARE A VERY, VERY BIG SUCCESS FOR HIM - CONTINUED MATYJA WITH WIELOWIEYSKA: “I assumed that for the ruling team, 12 voivodeships would be the minimum to win, and please remember what the leaders of the ruling parties said: that they would win even 15-16 regional assemblies. So this is not their success. It's different for Jarosław Kaczyński – he didn't expect to retain power in even four or five regional assemblies. Of course, compared to 2018, he suffered a defeat, but then he had everything – media, state apparatus, money – at his disposal. Now he was after losing the parliamentary elections, and these five voivodeships are a very, very big success for him.” -- TUSK'S STRATEGY WAS LIKELY THAT REGIONAL ASSEMBLIES ARE NO LONGER AS IMPORTANT, WHEREAS THE NUMBER OF CITY MAYORS, INCLUDING THOSE IN SMALLER CITIES, WILL BE STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT, AS HIS PARTY STILL HAS HUGE RESERVES TO UTILIZE THERE - SAYS PROF. MATYJA TO WIELOWIEYSKA: “Tusk's strategy was likely that regional assemblies are no longer as important, whereas the number of city mayors, including those in smaller cities, will be strategically important, as his party still has huge reserves to utilize there. These smaller towns somewhat escape our attention; in the first days after the elections, our attention naturally focuses on the ten metropolises. But very interesting things are happening in this second group; the local scene is being reshuffled. And it will turn out that local government bodies managed by local committees, not associated with any party, will weaken.” -- I ONLY HOPE THAT THE MEDIA WILL EXAMINE THE SOURCES OF THIS, UP TO A CERTAIN POINT ANONYMOUS, AND VERY UNFAIR NEGATIVE CAMPAIGN AGAINST GIBAŁA - SAYS PROF. MATYJA: “I only hope that the media will examine the sources of this, up to a certain point anonymous, and very unfair negative campaign against Gibała. It reached unprecedented proportions in other cities and must have played a very significant role, because Gibała was a clear favorite in the polls, yet Miszalski achieved a better result. It is important for the media to address this, because if someone attacks a candidate from anonymous positions, defense is very difficult. If the attack came from a competitor, one can always sue them in election proceedings, seek their rights. But in the case of an anonymous campaign, there is no such possibility.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30875697,tusk-przegral-malopolske-bo-pojechal-do-krakowa-a-nie-pojechal.html -- THIS IS NOT A COUNTRY FOR THE LEFT - ESTERA FLIEGER: “The Left undoubtedly makes big and small mistakes. But I have no idea what it should do. What I do know is this: I stopped getting upset about the weather a long time ago, as I have no influence over it and cannot change it. So perhaps there is nothing left to do but stop 'beating your fists against the table' and getting frustrated by the Left's results, and thus accept that it will neither achieve better results nor ever rule here, at least not for the next few decades.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40150501-estera-flieger-to-nie-jest-kraj-dla-lewicy -- ARKADIUSZ GRUSZCZYŃSKI IN GW ABOUT THE LEFT NOMINATING DEPUTY MINISTERS FOR THE EP: “Let's look at the Left. The lead candidate from Warsaw will be Robert Biedroń, who intends to spend the next four years in the European Parliament. Interestingly, his partner, Deputy Minister of Justice Krzysztof Śmiszek, also wants to run for the EP. - Other deputy ministers also plan to run. I mean Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus from the Ministry of Culture and National Heritage and Andrzej Szejna from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs – a person from the leadership of New Left tells me. There was talk of a potential EP run by MP Anna Maria Żukowska. - These are rumors, there is no such plan at this time – says one of the politicians.” https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,30878969,partie-szykuja-sie-na-eurowybory-tusk-dal-jasny-sygnal-kaczynski.html -- THE ORLEN CONTEST WAS UNEXPECTEDLY WON BY THE THIRD WAY, WHICH WAS SUPPOSED TO PUSH FOR FĄFARA'S CANDIDACY - BARTŁOMIEJ SAWICKI, TOMASZ FURMAN IN RZ: “Although the competition for the CEO of Orlen was formally announced, the party games naturally had the decisive say. Unexpectedly, the Third Way won, which was supposed to push for Fąfara's candidacy. (...) Witold Literacki, the current acting CEO of the concern, won the competition for vice-president and board member for corporate affairs at Orlen. Interestingly, he was designated as the first deputy CEO. He enjoys great trust from the Minister of State Assets, Borys Budka.” https://energia.rp.pl/paliwa/art40153961-kulisy-gry-o-orlen-nowy-prezes-to-nie-wszystko -- THE TUSK GOVERNMENT WILL HAVE A VERY HARD TIME FULFILLING ITS PROMISES. THE BLOW WILL COME FROM BRUSSELS - MIKOŁAJ FIDZIŃSKI IN GAZETA.PL: “The deficit is not only historically high, but also – and this is most important – higher than EU rules allow. One of the Maastricht criteria assumes that it should not exceed 3 percent. During the pandemic and after Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2022 – which caused a series of economic disturbances and the need for increased budget spending – Brussels suspended these rules. Unfortunately for Poland, it is now necessary to return to them. The matter is simple: whoever has a deficit higher than the permissible 3 percent should bring it below that limit. The EU 'motivates' this by imposing a so-called excessive deficit procedure on the country.” -- THESE THREE WORDS CAN GIVE MANY POLITICIANS GOOSEBUMPS, PERHAPS EVEN FRIGHT. POLAND WAS ALREADY IN THE EXCESSIVE DEFICIT PROCEDURE IN THE YEARS 2009-2015. IT IS BLAMED FOR THE MOST UNPOPULAR DECISIONS - CONTINUED FIDZIŃSKI IN GAZETA.PL: “These three words can give many politicians goosebumps, perhaps even fright. Poland was indeed in the excessive deficit procedure in the years 2009-2015. It is blamed for the most unpopular decisions made by Donald Tusk's government in those years, such as: raising the retirement age, reforming the OFE (Open Pension Funds), and increasing VAT rates. According to some observers, if it weren't for the necessity of tightening belts, PiS would have had a harder time coming to power in 2015 or staying in power. The European Commission lifted the excessive deficit procedure from Poland in mid-2015, literally a few months before the parliamentary elections. Thanks to this, the PiS government gained greater freedom in public finances and easily fulfilled its promises, e.g., 500+ and lowering the retirement age, building a sense of agency. This is, of course, just speculation, political fiction.” https://jedennewsdziennie.pl/article/224 -- CITIZENS AND POLITICIANS HAVE TWO OPTIONS: ACCEPT THE CONTINUOUS SHRINKAGE OF AN INCREASINGLY AGING POPULATION, OR AGREE TO SIGNIFICANT IMMIGRATION - JANUSZ MAJCHEREK IN GW: “Poland faces a great, not yet fully realized demographic challenge. Given the inevitability and irreversibility of the trends, its citizens and politicians have two options: to accept the continuous shrinkage of an increasingly aging population with all its negative consequences, or to agree to significant (specialists speak of at least 200,000 annually) immigration, meaning a return to the multi-ethnicity and multiculturalism of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, known from centuries of history. There is no third option, and society should not be misled.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30876911,demografia-bez-pochopnych-obietnic-od-hojnego-socjalu-dzieci.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Jarosław Kalinowski, Joanna Mucha, Iwona Sulik, Tomasz Bielecki, Jerzy Slezak, Stanisław Szwed, Wojciech Tochman, Agata Dąmbska.