state of play: 04/09/2024

GAME STATE: Przyborska: Enthusiasm Has Waned. There Are No Waves. It's Calm. Majmurek: The Left is the Biggest Loser. Szułdrzyński: Instead of a Photo Op, Kurski Should Hide in a Mouse Hole.

Łukasz Mężyk

-- “I AM NOT CONSIDERING RUNNING WITH THE CIVIC COALITION”. HOŁOWNIA ANNOUNCES POLSKA 2050’S DECISION FOR THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS, MORAWIECKI: THE RESULT WE ACHIEVED WITHOUT TVP NOT ONLY PLEASES US BUT ALSO MAKES US THINK HOW THAT AGGRESSIVE CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTED TO OUR PREVIOUS RESULT. - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/04/09/ -- UNTIL THE VERY END, REGARDLESS OF THE PARTY AUTHORITIES' DECISIONS, I WILL DEFEND THE POLISH PEOPLE'S PARTY (PSL) AGAINST A JOINT LIST WITH THE CIVIC COALITION IN THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS – DECLARED MP MAREK SAWICKI IN AN INTERVIEW WITH PAP: “Until the very end, regardless of the party authorities' decisions, I will defend the Polish People's Party (PSL) against a joint list with the Civic Coalition in the European elections – declared MP Marek Sawicki (PSL) in an interview with PAP. According to him, Trzecia Droga (Third Way), the coalition of PSL and Poland 2050, should contest these elections independently. (...) In Sawicki's opinion, if the PSL had run independently in the previous European elections, it would have secured at least four seats, 'if not more'. However, by running with the Civic Coalition, we lost one seat – he emphasized. If we run independently now, I believe we can achieve 6-7 seats, not 3 again, as was the case previously”. https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/687940-marek-sawicki-bede-bronil-psl-przed-wspolna-lista-z-ko -- ON ELECTION NIGHT, THE LEFT HEARD: EITHER GIVE UP ONE MINISTRY, OR WLODZIMIERZ CZARZASTY WILL NOT BECOME MARSHAL – IWONA SZPALA IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “Within the ruling camp, they say that after the elections, rebuilding relations between the coalition partners is the most important thing. Because on election night, the Left heard: either give up one ministry, or Włodzimierz Czarzasty will not become Marshal of the Sejm. This is the result of the dispute over abortion, which divided Trzecia Droga and the Left”. -- ARE THE ACCOUNTABILITIES THAT THE CIVIC COALITION FOCUSED ON AFTER THE ELECTIONS ACTUALLY SUFFICIENT FOR THE ELECTORATE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTIES – SZPALA CONTINUES IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “Our interlocutors insist that Tusk, as the leader of the main party in the ruling camp, should ask himself the question – are the accountabilities that the Civic Coalition focused on after the elections actually sufficient for the electorate of the democratic parties. – It seems that people expect something more – comments a Civic Coalition politician”. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30869235,koalicja-ocenia-wyniki-wyborow-trzecia-droga-wystawia-rachunek.html -- OPTIMISM IN THE LAW AND JUSTICE PARTY (PIS) AFTER THE ELECTIONS. "THE DIAGNOSES WERE CORRECT, IT'S TIME TO WORK ON THE NARRATIVE" - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “There is no euphoria in PiS, but politicians of Jarosław Kaczyński's party breathed a sigh of relief. – The mood is positive, the symbolic victory confirmed the correctness of our theses. Now we just need to think about how to tell them again – we hear from a politician from Nowogrodzka [PiS headquarters].”. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30868921,optymizm-w-pis-po-wyborach-diagnozy-byly-trafne-czas-na-prace.html -- PO MP MARTA WCISŁO POINTS TO THE GUILTY AND DEMANDS ACCOUNTABILITY – SEBASTIAN BIAŁACH IN Onet.pl: “It was supposed to be a successful attempt to regain the Marshal's Office from PiS, but it ended in a spectacular defeat. Jarosław Kaczyński's party not only retained power in the Lublin Voivodeship but also increased its presence in the regional assembly. The Civic Coalition lost in Lublin, and Trzecia Droga in the region. PO MP Marta Wcisło points to the guilty and demands accountability”. https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetlublin/wybory-samorzadowe-2024-spektakularna-porazka-ko-i-trzeciej-drogi-marta-wcislo-chce/25exyy6,79cfc278 -- PIS ACHIEVED A BETTER RESULT IN THE COUNTY COUNCIL ELECTIONS THAN THE CIVIC COALITION, TRZECIA DROGA, AND THE LEFT COMBINED: “The combined result of the Civic Coalition, Trzecia Droga, and the Left is 29.47 percent, compared to PiS's 29.94 percent”. https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/687923-co-za-wynik-dominacja-pis-w-wyborach-do-rad-powiatow -- PERHAPS INSTEAD OF PUSHING FOR A PHOTO WITH JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI, KURSKI SHOULD HIDE IN A MOUSE HOLE? - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “Now, PiS members have been thrown out of TVP, and Kaczyński's party has significantly fewer opportunities to buy favors through State Treasury companies, etc. And yet, the percentage support in the most political elections – to the regional assemblies – shows that PiS remains strong. So perhaps Kurski's television propaganda harmed PiS much more than it helped? Perhaps instead of pushing for a photo with Jarosław Kaczyński, Kurski should hide in a mouse hole?” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40128621-michal-szuldrzynski-donald-tusk-i-jaroslaw-kaczynski-oglaszaja-sukces-obaj-maja-troche-racji -- IF WE RECALL THAT THE COALITION PARTIES OBTAINED A TOTAL OF 51.1% OF THE VOTES, THEN NOTHING IS CERTAIN YET IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS – AND GREAT DETERMINATION WILL BE NEEDED IN THE CAMPAIGN - TOMASZ SAWCZUK ON POLITYKA.PL: “As of now, we do not have clear signals to determine that increased turnout would change the result in favor of the democratic parties – because supporters of all political camps might again go to the polls in equal numbers. Since there is a very large gap between 'standard' and 'extraordinary' turnout, the puzzle will likely look the same as in October – how to mobilize one's voters and demobilize the opponent's voters. If we recall that the coalition parties obtained a total of 51.1% of the votes in these elections, then nothing is certain yet in the presidential elections – and great determination will be needed in the campaign”. https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2252085,1,wybory-liczby-i-emocje-czy-to-jest-dzwonek-alarmowy-dla-obozu-tuska.read -- IT IS CLEARLY VISIBLE THAT PIS IS NOT FALLING INTO ABYSS AT ALL AND REMAINS THE STRONGEST GROUPING - PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “It is clearly visible that the Law and Justice party is not falling into the abyss at all and remains the strongest political grouping in Poland, with a loyal electorate, especially in rural areas. At the same time, the main problem has not changed – PiS has no allies today. This electorate is so loyal to Kaczyński's party that being cut off from free access to public media, which previously served as an instrument of blunt propaganda for years, did not particularly harm it”. -- DONALD TUSK'S EXPRESSION DURING ELECTION NIGHT SUGGESTED DISAPPOINTMENT; HIS GROUPING HAS LOST MOMENTUM, WHICH IS A CONSEQUENCE OF HIGH EXPECTATIONS - ŚMIŁOWICZ CONTINUES IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “In fact, Donald Tusk's expression during election night suggested disappointment; his grouping has lost momentum, which is a consequence of the high expectations raised by the '100 Concrete Actions for 100 Days' program. For most voters, it was clear from the beginning that fulfilling the promises was impossible in three months, yet signs of the first disappointment with the slow pace of reforms have already appeared, which the government is trying to cover up with accountabilities for scandals from the PiS era”. https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/po-wyborach-samorzadowych-nikt-sie-nie-cieszy-186742 -- CIVIC COALITION POLITICIANS HAVE LONG MISTAKEN TWITTER FOR REALITY, AND CONSIDER COMMON WISDOMS REPEATED BY SEVERAL HUNDRED FAKE AND REAL ACCOUNTS AS THE "VOICE OF CITIZENS." IN DOING SO, THEY BRING MISFORTUNE UPON THEMSELVES - GRZEGORZ SROCZYŃSKI IN GAZETA.PL: “The curse of Polish politics – much more so than in other countries – is Twitter. Being in this space without strict hygiene rules truly makes even sensible people stupid and turns them into troglodytes. For a long time, Civic Coalition politicians have mistaken Twitter for reality, and consider common wisdoms repeated by several hundred fake and real accounts as the 'voice of citizens.' In doing so, they bring misfortune upon themselves, which has manifested strongly in these elections. Unrealistic expectations were built, that we will 'crush evil,' as if PiS was suddenly going to disappear, lose these elections, and overtaking PiS in the overall result for the regional assemblies would be some kind of 'ultimate victory.' Why, pray tell?” -- THIS ADDICTION TO THE TWITTER WORLD CONSTITUTES A SERIOUS THREAT TO THE CURRENT RULERS - SROCZYŃSKI CONTINUES IN GAZETA.PL: “This addiction to the Twitter world constitutes a serious threat to the current rulers. They have too readily settled into echo chambers where they hear more exaggerated versions of their own views. Dear Platform! There is no such thing as the 'October 15th generation.' Why do you believe your own propaganda slogans? Instead, there is a mosaic society, worn down by COVID, tired of war fears, terrified by the prospect of conflict in Europe, and preoccupied with their own affairs. Focusing on the defeated PiS is not our national sport at the moment; do not confuse your own political fantasies with reality. Citizens are troubled by war fears, and yet in the last week of the local government campaign, they were once again subjected to the same old tune being played.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30867898,szanowna-platformo-nie-ma-zadnego-pokolenia-15-pazdziernika.html -- THE LEFT IS THE BIGGEST LOSER OF THESE ELECTIONS – JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “On the other hand, the Left had to form a government with the Platform. They promised this to their voters in the campaign. Their electorate is even more anti-PiS than that of the Civic Coalition, and the decision not to form a government that could finally oust PiS from power would be completely incomprehensible to them. However, when one is in such a coalition, one must have a plan on how to differentiate oneself from a stronger partner and how to demonstrate effectiveness to voters. The Left has so far struggled with both of these aspects”. https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/lewica-jest-najwiekszym-przegranym-tych-wyborow/ -- POLITICIANS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR TURNOUT. AND THEIR TASK IS NOT TO COMPLAIN ABOUT THE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT CONDITIONS IN WHICH THEY HAD TO OPERATE, BUT TO REACH VOTERS WHO, FOR THE MOST PART, THINK RATIONALLY, OBSERVE, AND DRAW CONCLUSIONS FROM WHAT THEY SEE - KATARZYNA PRZYBORSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Politicians are responsible for turnout. And their task is not to complain about the extremely difficult conditions in which they had to operate, but to reach voters who, for the most part, think rationally, observe, and draw conclusions from what they see”. -- THEY THEMSELVES DID NOT BELIEVE IN THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION THEY TOLD VOTERS ABOUT. THE POLITICIANS WERE THE FIRST TO RETURN TO ORDINARY SQUABBLES, THE ENTHUSIASM HAS WANED. THERE ARE NO WAVES. IT'S CALM - PRZYBORSKA CONTINUES: “Why did the democrats step off the post-election wave of enthusiasm that could have carried them through the local elections to the European ones? Because they themselves did not believe in the October 15 coalition they told voters about. The politicians were the first to return to ordinary squabbles, forgetting that the fight against populism is a long march. They lacked patience. And the voters caught onto this deception, their enthusiasm waned. There are no waves. It's calm”. -- PIS HAS BEEN STRENGTHENED BY ANOTHER VICTORY. IT HAS SHOWN CONSISTENCY, FIGHTING FOR EVERY FOOTHOLD - PRZYBORSKA CONTINUES: “We will have to row harder, because PiS has been strengthened by another victory. It has shown consistency, fighting for every foothold. For every zloty, the spending of which it will now influence through the regional assemblies, where it has been steadily increasing its support in recent years”. https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/pis-wygral-juz-zaczely-sie-rytualne-narzekania-na-wyborcow/ -- THE CURRENT STRATEGY MAY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS, AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTIES CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE - ADAM SZOSTKIEWICZ ON POLITYKA.PL: “When we know the full results, it will become clear whether he was right not to accept the proposal for the Left to run together with the Civic Coalition and opted for 'wild west' tactics: let the voters vote as they wish, and the partners will see their support within the electorate. This strategy may not be enough for the European elections, and the democratic parties cannot afford to lose. The election results are not so much a warning for the October 15 coalition as a stimulus for an assessment of the forces and means needed for further governance”. https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2251891,1,te-wybory-wymusza-na-tusku-remanent-w-rzadzie-i-w-koalicji-obecna-strategia-moze-juz-nie-wystarczyc.read -- IF THE UKRAINIANS RESPOND IN KIND, I.E., WITH AN EMBARGO ON POLISH PRODUCTS, WE WILL LOSE EVEN MORE - EDWIN BENDYK IN CONVERSATION WITH KATARZYNA PRZYBORSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “If the Ukrainians respond in kind, i.e., with an embargo on Polish products, we will lose even more. Mainly our dairy industry, but not only, because we are generally the largest exporter of food to Ukraine and the largest exporter overall after China. So, in absolute numbers, the Polish economy and Polish companies will suffer the greatest losses. However, for Ukraine, the losses are much more severe precisely because of the role of the economy in the effectiveness of resistance against Russia”. -- 8 BILLION HRYVNIA THAT DID NOT ARRIVE FROM CUSTOMS IN FEBRUARY IS EQUIVALENT TO SEVERAL DOZEN THOUSAND FEWER ARTILLERY SHELLS ON THE FRONT LINE - BENDYK CONTINUES WITH PRZYBORSKA: “The Ukrainian economy is not for show, it is not an addition to what the soldiers are doing on the front, but an integral part of the war effort. 8 billion hryvnia, which did not arrive from customs in February, means several dozen thousand fewer artillery shells on the front line. The National Bank of Ukraine also estimates that due to the blockade, imports to Ukraine in February were lower by $350–400 million. This, in turn, affects inflation, as the blockade makes imports more difficult and more expensive, thus contributing to price increases”. -- I DO NOT UNDERSTAND WHY DONALD TUSK'S INTENTION REGARDING PAWEL KOWAL HAS NOT YET BEEN REALIZED - BENDYK STATES IN KP: “There is a need for someone who would have a broader perspective and a good knowledge of Ukrainian affairs, with authority in Kyiv and… within his own government. I understand that this was Donald Tusk's intention with Paweł Kowal. I do not understand why it has not yet been realized”. https://krytykapolityczna.pl/swiat/bendyk-blokada-granicy-uderza-w-zdolnosci-obronne-ukrainy-rozmowa/ -- ADAM GLAPIŃSKI TURNS 73 TODAY. STANISŁAW ŻELICHOWSKI IS 80! -- BIRTHDAYS: Stanisław Żelichowski, Adam Glapiński, Marcin Dzierżanowski.

Łukasz Mężyk