state of play: 04/05/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Danielewski: Ipsos Poll a Wake-Up Call for the October 15th Coalition, Kublik: Third Way's Most Disappointed Electorate

Łukasz Mężyk

-- 35 YEARS AGO, THE ROUND TABLE AGREEMENTS WERE SIGNED. -- KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ ON HEALTH CONTRIBUTIONS: I CANNOT IMAGINE THIS PROJECT NOT PASSING. IT DOES NOT FULLY MEET OUR EXPECTATIONS ANYWAY; IT SHOULD BE MORE FAR-REACHING. PETRU: WE CANNOT INDEFINITELY SUBSIDIZE ELECTRICITY PRICES - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/04/05 -- THE MOST DISAPPOINTED AMONG THE COALITION PARTIES' VOTERS IS THE THIRD WAY ELECTORATE - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW QUOTES THE BATORY FOUNDATION REPORT: "Research conducted in the 'swing' voivodeships (Lower Silesian, Lublin, Łódź, Lesser Poland, Podlasie, and Świętokrzyskie) confirms that this last group is the most skeptical of the new government and, at the same time, the most demobilized before the local elections among all voters of the current ruling coalition. Supporters of the Third Way have reservations about how the change of power in public media was carried out, and some are simply tired of the protracted settlements and the ongoing conflict between Civic Coalition and Law and Justice" - the analysis indicates. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30857750,zawiedzione-nadzieje-i-demobilizacja-jakie-nastroje-dominuja.html -- IPSOS POLL: PIS CLEARLY LEADING, A WAKE-UP CALL FOR THE OCTOBER 15th COALITION - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: "Three days before the local elections, Law and Justice leads with a four-point advantage over Civic Coalition – according to an Ipsos poll for OKO.press and TOK FM. The demobilization of young people, especially young women, could have dire consequences for the ruling camp." -- RESULTS OF THE IPSOS POLL FOR REGIONAL ASSEMBLIES: PiS – 29 percent KO – 25 percent Third Way – 11 percent Confederation and Non-Partisan Samorządowcy – 10 percent Lewica – 7 percent Non-Partisan Samorządowcy – 7 percent Other committee – 2 percent Hard to Say – 9 percent -- IT SEEMS THE MOST REALISTIC ELECTION RESULT IN THE VOTE FOR REGIONAL ASSEMBLIES IS A VIRTUAL DRAW BETWEEN THE TWO LARGEST PARTIES, WITH A SLIGHT, MINIMAL ADVANTAGE FOR EITHER LAW AND JUSTICE OR CIVIC COALITION - FURTHER FROM DANIELEWSKI IN OKO: "Firstly, it seems that the most realistic election result in the vote for regional assemblies is a virtual draw between the two largest parties, with a slight, minimal advantage for either Law and Justice or Civic Coalition. Secondly, the interpretation of this result will depend on the assessor's intentions. Some will announce PiS's success, arguing that Kaczyński's party, despite its troubles and several months of defense, remains competitive in the political market. Others will state that this is the first election in 9 years in which Law and Justice has not achieved a significant percentage lead over its main rival from PO. Thirdly, a very likely scenario is also that all the major players will emerge from the regional assembly elections as losers in some sense… Law and Justice, even if it scrapes together a 1-2 percentage point lead over KO, will lose power in at least half of the eight voivodeships where it currently governs, which will deepen the frustration of the party apparatus." -- IF DONALD TUSK'S FORMATION DOES NOT FINISH IN FIRST PLACE, IT WILL DISAPPOINT ITS ELECTORAL BASE, WHICH, IT SEEMS, EXPECTS THE CRUSHING OF KACZYŃSKI'S FORMATION IN THESE ELECTIONS - FURTHER FROM DANIELEWSKI IN OKO: "If Donald Tusk's formation does not finish in first place, it will disappoint its electoral base, which, it seems, expects the crushing of Kaczyński's formation in these elections. The Third Way will probably not achieve a better result than in the parliamentary elections, which will be a great disappointment, especially for the PSL. The Confederation will likely, once again contrary to optimistic polls, fail to achieve a double-digit result, which will strengthen the narrative of a glass ceiling for Mentzen and Bosak's grouping. Lewica should consider any result above 7 percent a great success, but this does not change the fact that such an achievement would deepen this formation's sense of stagnation and its image as the weakest element of the ruling coalition." https://oko.press/sondaz-ipsos-pis-wyraznie-prowadzi -- ALMOST HALF OF POLES DO NOT INTEND TO PARTICIPATE IN THIS YEAR'S LOCAL ELECTIONS - SE: "Almost half of Poles do not intend to participate in this year's local elections – according to the latest poll by the Pollster Research Institute conducted for 'Super Express'. According to the survey, voter turnout will be 56 percent." https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/wybory-samorzadowe-bez-emocji-mamy-badania-pollstera-aa-VJQU-fNHw-WDpE.html -- HOWEVER, WILL INERTIA PREVAIL AMONG THE COALITION'S VOTERS? - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK: "Duda's veto on the law liberalizing access to emergency contraception, supported by most Poles, also reminded everyone how very conservative and, in its conservatism, detached from society is the United Right camp. However, will inertia prevail among the coalition's voters despite this? Especially since the local election campaign, particularly at the regional assembly level, is widely assessed as rather sluggish and unengaging, and Tusk, with his pro-turnout message, only became active in the final stretch. We will find out on Sunday." https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/tusk-siega-po-bron-kaczynskiego-ma-dwa-kluczowe-cele/19tk5yb,452ad802 -- THE ABORTION ISSUE DECIDED THE ELECTIONS. THE RULING COALITION CANNOT SWEEP IT UNDER THE RUG - BEN STANLEY IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: "Abortion was an important factor in deciding who Poles voted for in the parliamentary elections on October 15th. Therefore, the dispute over abortion within the ruling coalition will not be easily swept under the rug. Given that the ruling coalition includes both conservatives and social democrats, it was predictable that several issues would sooner or later cause controversy. One of the most important of these is abortion." https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2024/04/05/stanley-temat-aborcji-przesadzil-o-wyborach-koalicja-rzadzaca-nie-moze-zamiesc-go-pod-dywan/ -- THE ISRAELI AMBASSADOR EVEN OUTSHONE GRZEGORZ BRAUN - MICHAŁ PŁOCIŃSKI IN RZ: "Probably no single person has done so much harm to Israel's image in Poland and Polish-Israeli relations. Shockingly, this person is a diplomat sent to Poland precisely to take care of these relations. He even outshone Grzegorz Braun with his fire extinguisher. Of course, the ambassador will certainly deny this and claim that even the strongly pro-Israeli 'Rzeczpospolita' is evidently antisemitic. Because he himself last looked in the mirror probably when he wanted to check how the Red Army cap he once wore for a parade celebrating the anniversary of the Red Army's victory over the Third Reich in Red Square in Moscow, looked on him." https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40111181-michal-plocinski-ambasador-izraela-w-kanale-zero-przebil-nawet-grzegorza-brauna-z-gasnica -- THIS ALSO SHOWS THE EMPTINESS OF MEANING THAT EMANATES FROM THE VERY CENTER OF SMILING POLAND - RAFAŁ WOŚ IN INTERIA: "Recently, Donald Tusk has been trying to react to this. He shows that he is 'delivering' 800+ or continuing armament in case of war. It is also significant that the head of an anti-PiS government boasts about… PiS projects. And this also shows the emptiness of meaning that emanates from the very center of smiling Poland." https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-antypis-ma-wladze-oraz-nienawisc-poza-tym-nie-maja-niczego,nId,7431094 -- THE MINISTRY OF HEALTH'S PROJECT REGARDING THE 'DAY AFTER' PILL IS A MISHAP. THEY WILL PROFIT FROM IT - JUDYTA WATOŁA IN GW: "- The minister can say what she wants, and I know what I know. There is no way I will issue a prescription without parental or guardian consent, because in this way I would violate the patient's rights and only ridicule myself. And the disciplinary spokesman could also accuse me of violating the pharmacist's code of ethics. - says Piotr Brukiewicz, former president of the Silesian Chamber of Pharmacists. Online prescription services will profit from all this commotion, because buying a prescription for the 'day after' pill for a few dozen zlotys will still be easier for many a teenager than having a conversation with a pharmacist that borders on intimate information, even if it were to take place without the presence of a parent or another adult." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30858814,projekt-ministerstwa-zdrowia-w-sprawie-pigulki-dzien-po-to.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Teresa Bogucka, Marcin Krupa, Tomasz Lejman, Edyta Mydłowska-Krawcewicz, Magda Dobrzańska-Frasyniuk.

Łukasz Mężyk