state of play: 01/19/2024

POLITICAL GAME: Wielowieyska: Kaczyński Dragged Duda into This Circus, Żakowski: Polish Democracy Couldn't Have Dreamed of a Better Minister of Justice Than Bodnar

Łukasz Mężyk

-- CZARZASTY: THE MANAGEMENT OF NOWA LEWICA HAS AUTHORIZED ME AND BIEDROŃ TO HOLD TALKS WITH CIVIC PLATFORM ON THE POSSIBILITY OF CREATING A JOINT BLOCK IN THE LOCAL ELECTIONS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/01/19/ -- THE PIS APPARATUS IS IN A PANIC. THE ACTIONS OF KACZYŃSKI SHOW NO COHERENT PLAN - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Kaczyński, the leader of United Right, is suffering one defeat after another. PiS, using laws often inconsistent with the constitution, has mined the state to maintain influence in key institutions – but it's not succeeding. The party apparatus is terrified because activists are losing their positions, money, and sense of security. Seeing Mariusz Kamiński and Maciej Wąsik behind bars, they ask: what went wrong and who will be next? This panic threatens the disintegration of Kaczyński's camp, as there is no indication that the PiS leader has a plan for the future. What's worse, his conflict with Andrzej Duda hinders the building of a united front.” -- KACZYŃSKI ASSUMED THAT THE COALITION'S BACKBONE WOULD NOT AGREE TO RADICAL STEPS THAT BYPASS DUDU AND RAISE LEGAL DOUBTS. HE REASONED AS FOLLOWS: I CAN GO ALL OUT BECAUSE MY PEOPLE WON'T EVEN GRIPE, BUT TUSK HAS COALITION PARTNERS WHO WILL WRONG-HEADEDLY PROTEST. HE WAS WRONG - CONTINUES WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Kaczyński assumed that the coalition's backbone would not agree to radical steps that bypass Duda and raise legal doubts. He reasoned as follows: I can go all out because my people won't even gripe, but Tusk has coalition partners who will wrong-headedly protest. He was wrong. He didn't understand that the disgust and outrage over what PiS did for eight years had reached its peak. Society, faced with a choice between rottenness and systemic lawlessness, or risky decisions that would cut PiS off from key institutions, chose the latter. Tusk's coalition partners know that such sentiments are dominant.” -- THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT IT WAS KACZYŃSKI WHO DRAGGED DUDA INTO THIS CIRCUS - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES IN GW: “There is no doubt that it was Kaczyński who dragged Duda into this circus. The President could have maintained autonomy and a critical distance from the government, yet he joined the procession of losers who shout and shake their fingers, but can do nothing. Kaczyński wanted Duda to appear at last week's demonstration in defense of Wąsik and Kamiński. But the president had enough of endorsing PiS's failures and did not show up.” -- TUSK BELIEVES THERE IS NO WAY OUT, AS ANY OTHER STRATEGY WOULD MEAN YIELDING GROUND TO KACZYŃSKI AND FURTHER DESTRUCTION OF THE STATE - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES IN GW: “The ministers' decisions – especially regarding TVP and the national prosecutor – raise legal doubts not only from PiS but also from some experts and commentators. In the face of the threat of a presidential veto, the coalition is avoiding the traps set by PiS, and of course, it would be better to restore order through laws rather than administrative decisions, which are being criticized. However, Tusk believes there is no way out, as any other strategy would mean yielding ground to Kaczyński and further destruction of the state.” -- IT APPEARS THAT THE COALITION HAS PRIORITIZED CERTAIN OBJECTIVES BUT WISHES TO LIMIT THE NUMBER OF SCUFFLES. THE PRZYŁĘBSKA TRIBUNAL IS THEREFORE MORE IGNORED THAN FOUGHT. THE SAME APPLIES TO THE NATIONAL JUDICIAL COUNCIL OR THE NBP - STILL WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Whatever we think of Tusk's actions, one thing is certain: everything he is doing today was announced during the campaign. He said he would make administrative decisions to restore order. That he would implement court rulings only by properly appointed bodies. He also promised radical steps to reform the NBP and Julia Przyłębska's Tribunal. However, he has recently softened his tone on these matters. It appears that the coalition has prioritized certain objectives but wishes to limit the number of scuffles. The Przyłębska Tribunal is therefore more ignored than fought. The same applies to the National Judicial Council or the NBP.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30606737,wielowieyska-aparat-pis-wpadl-w-panike-w-dzialaniach-kaczynskiego.html -- JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI'S PARTY IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING, NOT ONLY IN POLLS BUT ALSO IN THE MORALE OF ITS RANKS - WITOLD GŁOWACKI IN OKO.PRESS: “Jarosław Kaczyński's party is rapidly weakening, not only in polls but also in the morale of its ranks. Dominant emotions are fear, unease, and dread. Shared fear can act in two ways. Indeed, it can lead a group gripped by it to huddle together as a frightened flock – that is, to political consolidation. But it can also awaken the instinct for immediate individual escape in the first available direction – and thus cause centrifugal political processes. Kaczyński's party stands at such a crossroads today.” https://oko.press/strach-przed-kara-pis -- WE DON'T NEED RECONCILIATION, ONLY CIVILIZATION OF CONFLICT - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Toxic polarization is of course not a good thing; it can be a force that disintegrates not only liberal democracy but also the political community. However, the answer to today's Polish polarization – which is indeed dysfunctional and destructive to the state in many areas – is not 'reconciliation.' It's really not about political leaders suddenly starting to reconcile publicly, singing 'that we may be one/let's shake hands,' or forming a national unity government where Ziobro sits next to Bodnar, Macierewicz next to Sienkiewicz, Zandberg next to Mentzen, Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk next to Elżbieta Witek. The problem is not that sharp conflicts divide Poland. The problem is that political conflict in the country has radically degenerated. And the primary task facing the entire society and its political elite today is to re-frame it within civilized boundaries.” -- THERE IS NO NEED FOR ANY PARTICULAR UNITY, OR EVEN SYMPATHY BETWEEN GROUPS HERE, ONLY THE RECOGNITION OF CERTAIN COMMON RULES AND THE FACT THAT ULTIMATELY WE FORM ONE POLITICAL COMMUNITY - MAJMUREK CONTINUES: “Liberal democracy is a set of institutions that allows society to express its differences – divergent and often antagonistic interests, values, concepts of the good life, and all sorts of preferences – so that in doing so, it not only avoids killing each other but also does not tear apart the political community. There is no need for any particular unity, or even sympathy between groups here, only the recognition of certain common rules and the fact that ultimately we form one political community.” -- IT IS IMPORTANT THAT A SIMILARLY PRAGMATIC APPROACH BE TAKEN TOWARDS OTHER KEY POLICIES AND PROJECTS LEFT BY PIS, E.G., ARMY REFORMS, BORDER PROTECTION, OR CPK - MAJMUREK CONTINUES: “On the other hand, among some voters of the October 15 coalition, there is a conviction that every PiS policy was populist, ill-conceived, senseless, thieving, and the state should apply a zero-option approach to everyone. It would be destructive for the state if every new team in power adopted such logic. Fortunately, contrary to some of its voters, the liberal camp has accepted the necessity of the social correction introduced by PiS. It is important that a similarly pragmatic approach be taken towards other key policies and projects left by PiS, e.g., army reforms, border protection, or CPK.” -- WHILE WAR IS RAGING BEYOND OUR BORDERS, WE NEED AT LEAST FOR THE POLISH-POLISH WAR TO TRANSFORM FROM A TOTAL CONFLICT USING POLITICAL WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION INTO AN ELEGANT, REGULAR WAR, FOUGHT ACCORDING TO CERTAIN MINIMAL RULES - WRITES MAJMUREK: “While war is raging beyond our borders, we need at least for the Polish-Polish war to transform from a total conflict using political weapons of mass destruction into an elegant, regular war, fought according to certain minimal rules. Unfortunately, the hope that PiS will become a normal right-wing party, or that it will permanently marginalize itself in its radicalism, currently seems rather vain.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/nie-potrzebujemy-pojednania-tylko-ucywilizowania-konfliktu/ -- IN THE SITUATION WE ARE IN, POLISH DEMOCRACY COULD NOT HAVE DREAMED OF A BETTER MINISTER OF JUSTICE - JACEK ŻAKOWSKI IN GW: “No one in the world has yet restored democratic rule of law after years of power held by authoritarian populists of this wave. Similar to 1989, Poland is paving the way for transforming a murky fish soup of a semi-authoritarian state into a colorful and transparent aquarium of democracy. Every step is therefore a step into the unknown.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30608455,murem-za-bodnarem.html -- LET'S NOT WRECK THE CHOCZEWO POWER PLANT - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: “Questioning this process is nothing other than planting a bomb under the foundations of Polish energy strategy, overturning accepted plans and the established calendar. For what? Easy money? A few election votes? The interests of an not-so-friendly neighbor from the East? We will probably never know the details. What matters is something else. Determination and economic consistency. Continuation of the adopted strategy. Decision-making continuity. Its opposite is anarchy. It has often plagued us throughout history. Let's hope it doesn't resurface again.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-ekonomiczne/art39716781-boguslaw-chrabota-nie-wywracajmy-elektrowni-w-choczewie -- LET'S DETACH CBOS FROM POWER - PROF. ANDRZEJ RYCHARD IN GW: “The fundamental question: would the government be willing to release CBOS from its tutelage? That would be a test of whether it prioritizes the public interest or its own. However, I remain cautiously optimistic here, because in the long run, the public interest also lies in the government's interest. But who in politics thinks in the long term? We shall see.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30608554,sondaze-i-politycy-oderwijmy-cbos-od-wladzy.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Leszek Balcerowicz (77), Magdalena Gawin, Łukasz Konarski, Andrzej Szlachta, Waldemar Skrzypczak.

Łukasz Mężyk