state of play: 09/25/2020
STATE OF PLAY: Karnowski: Kaczyński Won't Accept a Camp That Must Negotiate Everything; Pereira: A New Duo, Szpala: Candidate List Situation Postponed, Czarnek for Education Minister, Skurzyński's Program Launches
-- KRZYSZTOF SKÓRZYŃSKI'S NEW PROGRAM STARTS ON TVN24 AT 8 PM – JAROSŁAW GOWIN WILL BE THE FIRST GUEST.
-- SOBOLEWSKI ON THE PLAN FOR A COALITION AGREEMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK, LICHOCKA ON DECONCENTRATION IN THE AGREED PACKAGE, NITRAS ALREADY ANNOUNCES A VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE IN KACZYŃSKI AND SPEAKS OF LESZEK MILLER'S POST-COMMUNIST BIOGRAPHY – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/09/25/
-- KACZYŃSKI, THE BOSS OF ZIOBRO – THE HEADLINE ON SE'S FRONT PAGE.
-- KACZYŃSKI'S PRESENCE MARKS A NEW STAGE – MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “The most significant change compared to the previous term will, of course, be Jarosław Kaczyński's announced entry into the government. This was a card held for an extraordinary situation, such as a serious international crisis. It has been deployed now, which proves that in Jarosław Kaczyński's opinion, there is no other way to resolve or mitigate conflicts, especially disputes between Prime Minister Morawiecki and Minister Ziobro. Regardless of the various interpretations of this move, it changes the position of all players. The presence of a political leader in the government, the fact that he will closely observe the actions of the entire Council of Ministers, is not a minor, trivial, or insignificant technical step. However, this will be a new stage.”
-- KACZYŃSKI WILL NOT ACCEPT A CAMP WHERE EVERYTHING MUST BE NEGOTIATED – KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “In turn, the entire camp emerges from this multi-month period of turmoil with the important conviction that there is no other majority in this Sejm. But also with the feeling that Jarosław Kaczyński will not accept a camp that is losing its elementary cohesion, a camp where essentially everything must be negotiated, and each time anew.”
-- THE MEDIA ENVIRONMENTS OF THE THIRD REPUBLIC MUST MAKE DO – KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Most importantly, a split or a multi-month horror in the form of a minority government has been avoided. The media environments of the Third Republic, especially the media ones, must once again make do. And they had considerable appetites. They – unlike part of the right – knew that removing one brick would likely collapse the entire structure.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/519049-obecnosc-kaczynskiego-w-rzadzie-wiele-zmieni-to-nowy-etap
-- THIS IS NOT A COMFORTABLE SITUATION FOR MORAWIECKI – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Generally, the situation is not very comfortable for Morawiecki. He receives support from Kaczyński in disputes with Ziobro, but the presence of the PiS leader weakens his position. Until now, the government was his domain, and coalition politics belonged to Kaczyński. Now this division of roles is blurring. If the PiS leader has to enter the government to mediate disputes between Morawiecki and Ziobro, it means that Morawiecki himself did not have sufficient tools to win these disputes. But it's not the prime minister's fault; it's Kaczyński who didn't want to give them to him. Instead of transferring them to the prime minister, he enters the government himself as an arbitrator. Moreover, as a member of PiS, Morawiecki will be subordinate to the party leader. But as the head of government, he will formally be his superior. This will weaken, not strengthen, the prime minister's authority. One must also remember that the idea of the PiS leader entering the government was always suggested by Morawiecki's enemies.”
-- NO CONFLICT HAS BEEN RESOLVED, IT IS STILL UNKNOWN WHICH WAY KACZYŃSKI WILL GO – SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “Here we come to the most important issue. Kaczyński could not decide on any fundamental move. The conflict between Morawiecki and Ziobro is not only a personal dispute but also a programmatic one. And the PiS leader has not resolved this dispute. The prime minister's and the minister of justice's plans for the next three years are completely different. And Kaczyński could not decide which direction to take – the ideological offensive announced by Ziobro, or the pragmatism proposed by the prime minister. Therefore, no conflict in the coalition has been resolved, merely temporarily eased. And sooner or later, it will erupt again. The armistice cannot last too long.”
https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/200929679-Szuldrzynski-Krotkie-zawieszenie-broni.html
-- A NEW DUO – KACZYŃSKI WILL ALLOW THE PRIME MINISTER TO MORE EFFECTIVELY MANAGE THE ECONOMY AND FOREIGN POLICY – SAMUEL PEREIRA ON TVP INFO: “Jarosław Kaczyński is fully aware of the ideological and cultural challenges and can be decisive in this sphere, but he also knows that without consistently and effectively leading the country in the economic sphere – it is much harder to defend against other threats. His trust in Mateusz Morawiecki concerns not only the economy but also foreign policy, which is why the PiS leader, taking on the role of Deputy Prime Minister overseeing the Ministry of Interior, Ministry of National Defence, and Ministry of Interior and Administration, will allow the prime minister to more effectively manage these two important political spheres. Simultaneously, he is preparing for the PiS congress in November, where Morawiecki is to be announced as Vice-Chairman, so this duo will be reflected both in the government and party camp.”
-- KACZYŃSKI'S VIEWS ARE MORE CENTRIST THAN HIS ADVERSARIES CLAIM – PEREIRA CONTINUES: “This can be an opportunity for the United Right, above all, to improve governance. It is no secret that the prime minister and the minister of justice do not have affection for each other. This causes real problems for the government. Mateusz Morawiecki's people draw attention to Ziobro's statements and actions that were not consulted with the prime minister and the fact that the minister is boycotting government meetings. In response, Solidarna Polska politicians accuse the Prime Minister's Chancellery of boycotting their projects and Morawiecki himself of insufficient ideological engagement. However, it is difficult to suspect that the way the prime minister governs and the direction he has chosen in both ideology and the economy are not being observed by Jarosław Kaczyński and are fully acceptable. This is likely due to the simple fact that the PiS leader wants his party to be a grouping with support closer to 50 than 20 percent. Jarosław Kaczyński is also a conservative from Żoliborz, whose views are more centrist than his political adversaries and their media arm from the vicinity of TVN and Gazeta Wyborcza claim.”
https://www.tvp.info/50021929/kaczynski-zlapal-stery-co-bedzie-oznaczalo-wejscie-lidera-pis-do-rzadu
-- PiS TO GAIN A SECRETARY OF STATE IN THE MINISTRY OF JUSTICE, WHILE ENVIRONMENTS ADVOCATING FOR A SOFTER COURSE ARE ON THE DEFENSIVE – IWONA SZPALA IN GW: “Kaczyński will be Deputy Prime Minister and head of the Security Committee, which will oversee the ministries of defense, interior and administration, and justice. From what our sources say, the priority will be to complete the PiS revolution in the judiciary. The PiS leader, a proponent of a hard line, will 'motivate Ziobro'. – Kaczyński's ambition is to have engraved on his tombstone: 'he reformed the courts.' Environments that encouraged Nowogrodzka to pursue milder reforms in the judiciary will find themselves on the defensive – assesses a United Right politician. PiS is also to gain a Secretary of State in the Ministry of Justice.”
-- CZARNEK AS MINISTER OF EDUCATION? BUT HE HAS A RIVAL, MUELLER – SZPALA CONTINUES: “Przemysław Czarnek, a PiS MP and former Lublin voivode, whose name surfaced during the recent search for Zbigniew Ziobro's successor, is rumored to be circulating around the reconstructed cabinet. There is a proposal to merge the ministries of education and science, and Czarnek is reportedly interested in this position. However, he has a competitor – Piotr Mueller, the government spokesperson.”
-- IN THE CORRIDORS, SOLIDARNA POLSKA IS MORE CAUTIOUS ABOUT ASSESSING KACZYŃSKI'S DEPUTY PRIME MINISTERSHIP – SZPALA CONTINUES: “When Kaczyński decided to become Deputy Prime Minister and chose to oversee, among others, the Ministry of Justice, people from Solidarna Polska became somewhat distant. Officially, they are very pleased, for example, MP Jan Kanthak ('It's good that Jarosław Kaczyński will oversee the security ministries, given the situation on the border with Belarus and the war in Ukraine'), but in the corridors, they say: 'We'll see how it turns out.'”
-- THE SITUATION WITH THE CANDIDATE LISTS IS POSTPONED FOR NOW – SZPALA IN GW: “Now, as we hear, Solidarna Polska and Porozumienie can count on guarantees, but they will not get prime spots on the PiS lists. – The situation with the lists is postponed for now – says a politician close to Gowin. He adds that much can change by 2023: – There is no point in fighting over such a distant future.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,26336226,rzad-po-nowemu-15-ministerstw-kaczynski-nadzorca-ziobry-kaminski.html
-- WP POLITYCE COUNTERS GW REPORTS OF KAMIŃSKI'S RESIGNATION FROM THE MINISTRY OF INTERIOR: “This whole story was made up by someone. One must lack elementary knowledge of what is happening in Law and Justice to convey such information – says our source from government circles. However, that's not all. At no stage of the coalition partners' talks was there a demand for the resignation of one of the most popular ministers in the government and a man of extreme trust for Jarosław Kaczyński. Similarly, stories about Mateusz Morawiecki's attempt to influence this 'decision' are also untrue.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/519134-ujawniamy-nie-ma-mowy-o-dymisji-ministra-kaminskiego
-- KACZYŃSKI PLACES EVERYONE IN A STATE OF UNCERTAINTY – ANATOL KOZIŃSKI IN WP: “Jarosław Kaczyński has clearly decided that he must shorten the distance between himself and his closest associates. By entering the government, he is placing everyone in a state of uncertainty.”
-- IT WILL BE EASIER FOR KACZYŃSKI TO CONTROL TENSIONS – KOZIŃSKI CONTINUES: “It will be easier for him to control tensions within the government. Not only the one between Morawiecki and Ziobro – although the conflict between them is of course the strongest. But there are also minor disputes (e.g., between Sasin and Błaszczak). Kaczyński certainly will not want to resolve them. After all, he has not perfected the art of crisis management only to resolve all crises now. But by being closer, it will be easier for him to control them and ensure they do not escalate too much, so they do not lead to the implosion of the entire political camp.”
-- KACZYŃSKI WILL FIGHT FAT CATS – KOZIŃSKI CONTINUES: “It will be easier for him to keep everyone in uncertainty for the next three years. Because it is also a fact that PiS is becoming a party of fat cats. The successive reports on how individual activists are placing their people in various attractive sinecures confirm this best. However, fat cats do not catch mice (read: do not win elections). And Kaczyński wants to win in 2023.”
https://opinie.wp.pl/kozinski-wchodzac-do-rzadu-kaczynski-zachwial-systemem-wladzy-ktory-sam-stworzyl-opinia-6557726963755904a
-- PiS IS PREPARING ITS AUTUMN PROGRAM OFFENSIVE – MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: “PiS, together with its coalition partners, is also preparing for JOP (Autumn Program Offensive). This is how the ruling party internally refers to a package of laws that will soon be presented by the United Right. These include further changes in the judiciary and new rules for organizing elections. PiS is also preparing programmatic surprises that have not yet been reported by journalists. Changes in the government and its transformation are intended to facilitate the better implementation of this plan. The same applies to further improving the decision-making process and Kaczyński's entry into the government.”
https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/200929645-Nowy-gabinet-bedzie-rozbijal-silosy-O-co-chodzi.html
-- WHAT USE IS A POLITICAL HOUND THAT CANNOT HUNT? – WOJCIECH WYBRANOWSKI IN WP ON THE OPPOSITION: “However, they are doing it – like Borys Budka – in a grotesque manner. The government camp will be able to dismiss the motions of no confidence that were announced against each minister of the Morawiecki government without debate – the dismissal and appointment of a given minister will render the motion moot; and the whole affair will only strengthen the United Right. Or perhaps Szymon Hołownia or Rafał Trzaskowski? Silence again. Although, no, the latter, with his traditional sense of 'timing,' is shooting himself in the foot by announcing numerous fee increases in Warsaw. Today's opposition resembles a bloodhound that has lost its scent and is starting to bite the ankles of its owner and his neighbors. And the voters of the Left and Civic Platform, or Szymon Hołownia's movement, will probably soon be asking themselves again: what use is a political hound that cannot hunt?”
https://www.wp.pl/?s=https://opinie.wp.pl/wybranowski-opozycja-nie-potrafi-polowac-opinia-6557432322071424a&src01=f1e45&c=336
-- BIRTHDAYS: Mariusz Kamiński, Maria Przełomiec, Kataryna, Dominika Cosic, Paweł Zalewski.
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