-- MORAWIECKI ON SHOOTING MINERS WHEN TRZASKOWSKI WAS IN THE KOPACZ GOVERNMENT, BOSAK ON POLITICAL CLASS REPLACEMENT, BIELAN ON BEING SURE OF VICTORY, BOTH CANDIDATES ARE HAVING RALLIES DAY AFTER DAY - REPORT ON 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/07/10/ -- LEWICA CONFIRMED ITS NON-EXISTENCE, THE PATH FOR BOSAK TO THE 2ND ROUND IN THE NEXT ELECTION HAS BEEN OPENED, IT'S WORTH REMEMBERING THIS WHEN SURFACINGS OF "WE WERE STUPID" APPEAR LATER - EDWIN BENDYK, NEW CHAIRMAN OF THE BATORY FOUNDATION IN OKO.PRESS: “Lewica confirmed its non-existence, Krzysztof Bosak's extreme right emerged. Fortunately moderate, but still a decent result, has brought Krzysztof Bosak into the mainstream. His support and the votes of the Confederation candidate's electorate have become so attractive that the impossible has become possible: elements of the Confederation's program are being complimented by politicians from both Andrzej Duda's and Rafał Trzaskowski's camps. As Jacek Jaśkowiak put it, one must grit their teeth and talk to Bosak. The path for Krzysztof Bosak to be a rival in the second round of the next presidential election has been outlined; he himself emphasizes that he has time and gives himself and his formation 30 years for a long march through the institutions. It is worth not only noting but also remembering when, after some time, pronouncements of 'we were stupid' reappear. -- KACZYŃSKI, LIKE LENIN, CONVINCES THAT THE MINORITY IS THE MAJORITY, IN THE NEXT ELECTION, FURTHER PILLARS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE REMOVED - BENDYK CONTINUES IN OKO.PRESS: “Jarosław Kaczyński faced a similar necessity as Vladimir Lenin in Russia, who in 1917 had to convince that the minority supporting him was in fact the majority, and even the entirety – the Sovereign granting the right to extraordinary actions and to change the system without changing the constitution. This process has been described in detail many times, but it continues and that is precisely why this year's presidential election has such high stakes. The election of Andrzej Duda and ensuring a monopoly of power for the right opens the way to consolidating the PiS revolution and closing systemic changes. There are three years until the parliamentary elections, just enough time to remove the last pillars of the Third Polish Republic's system, although perhaps not enough time to build a solid new institutional order. It is known, however, that the current constitutional order, which includes principles such as subsidiarity, self-governance, and decentralization within a unitary state, is irksome to Jarosław Kaczyński.” -- DEFENDING A SYSTEM BASED ON SELF-GOVERNANCE IS NOT JUST DEFENDING THE THIRD REPUBLIC - BENDYK CONTINUES: “Defending a system based on the principle of self-governance is therefore not solely a defense of the Third Polish Republic in Poland. It is a choice for a future where the ability to effectively mobilize local resources and communities will be a prerequisite for successfully dealing with the challenges and crises awaiting Poland and its inhabitants. The central government can and should help in such mobilization, but it certainly cannot replace local agency. It is worth remembering all of this when going to vote on July 12.” https://oko.press/samorzadowcy-graja-wysoko-bo-kaczynski-ostrzegal-by-nie-warczeli-na-wladze-graja-jednak-o-ustroj/ -- THIS OFFICE IS NOT A NOTARY - NACZELNY RZ BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA ON THE FRONT PAGE: “This office is not a notary. We need a president who understands the direction in which the world is heading and draws conclusions from it, safeguarding the interests of Poland and its citizens. In Rzeczpospolita, we believe in the intelligence and discernment of our readers. They know perfectly well what choice to make and which model of governance to support.” -- HE CANNOT BLINDLY SIGN LAWS - CHRABOTA ON THE NEW PRESIDENT: “He cannot blindly sign laws sent by the parliamentary majority, but he also cannot contest every government idea. Poland needs a president who is guided by the raison d'état, not by party interest, even if he considers the party he comes from to be the best in the world. (...) We need a president who cooperates with the government in foreign and defense policy, sets their directions, presents initiatives, and holds the prime minister and his ministers accountable. We need a president who understands that the presidential veto in the constitution exists precisely to be used in the interest of the state.” https://www.rp.pl/Wybory-prezydenckie-2020/307099904-Boguslaw-Chrabota-O-dobrego-prezydenta.html -- ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ WRITES ABOUT HIDING SZUMOWSKI, MACIEREWICZ, AND SASIN, ALTHOUGH ONE HAD A PRESS CONFERENCE TODAY, ANOTHER A MAJOR EVENT IN CHEŁM ABOUT THE VOLHYNIA CRIME MUSEUM, AND MACIEREWICZ ISSUED A CALL TO VOTERS YESTERDAY: “Fearing a loss of votes, the ruling party decided to hide several other of its prominent politicians in the final weeks. Health Minister Łukasz Szumowski, Deputy Prime Minister Jacek Sasin, and the former Minister of National Defense Antoni Macierewicz, who traditionally sparks the most controversy even among PiS voters, have disappeared. - The appearance of any of them today would be shooting ourselves in the foot – one of President Duda's campaign staffers tells us. - Andrzej Duda's defeat is, of course, possible, and we all know this very well today. However, no one is thinking much about its potential consequences yet.” -- SASIN WILL ANNOUNCE THE VOLHYNIA CRIME MUSEUM IN CHEŁM TODAY - DZIENNIK WSCHODNI: “On Friday, July 10, Deputy Prime Minister Jacek Sasin and MEP Beata Mazurek will announce the concept for the establishment of two new institutions: the Institute of Truth and Reconciliation and the Museum of Volhynia Victims. This will be one of the highlights of the celebrations of the 77th anniversary of the Volhynia Massacre.” https://www.dziennikwschodni.pl/chelm/w-chelmie-powstanie-instytut-prawdy-i-pojednania-oraz-muzeum-ofiar-wolynia,n,1000269895.html -- STANKIEWICZ ON THE NERVOUSNESS IN TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMPAIGN TEAM: “Conversations with Trzaskowski's campaign staffers indicate, however, that there has also been nervousness in his team in recent days. It was met with resentment that none of the other anti-PiS opposition candidates – Szymon Hołownia, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, or Robert Biedroń – actively engaged in Trzaskowski's campaign. - I know, we were naive, because this is politics and none of them have an interest in helping a rival candidate. But still, we hoped they would seriously consider the slogan of war with PiS. It didn't work out. This will cost us a few points – recounts our interlocutor from Platforma.” -- TRZASKOWSKI CAMPAIGN STAFFER SAYS IN STANKIEWICZ'S ARTICLE THAT DUDA'S POTENTIAL VICTORY WILL BE PiS'S LAST SUCH VICTORY: “When Onet was preparing the profiles of Trzaskowski's campaign staffers, there were those who downplayed their involvement in the campaign, openly stating that they did not want to become its faces in case of defeat. - I already know what mistakes we made, but I can only say that on post-election Monday. Could a better campaign have been run? Certainly, yes – one of Trzaskowski's people told us. - But I disagree with those who claim that if Rafał had been more aggressive and had gone to the TVP debate in Końskie, he would have gained. Kurski was just waiting for his slip-ups or a clash with a hostile crowd. We would have had five days of a festival on TVP. All we could do was move forward step by step, hoping to scrape together over 50% without spectacular actions. Yes, it might not work out. Duda might win by reminding people that he gave them 500+. But I think this will already be PiS's last such victory.” -- IF TRZASKOWSKI DOES NOT WIN, IT MEANS THE PROBLEM WITH THE PERCEPTION OF PLATFORMA IS DEEPER AND THE CHANCES OF SOLVING IT ARE SMALL: “If Trzaskowski is unable to win, it means that the problem with the perception of Platforma is deeper, and the chances of solving it are small. This could be the beginning of the end of the opposition in the current formula, such as Platforma or the Civic Coalition it forms. A fundamental restructuring of the opposition will likely be necessary.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/wybory-prezydenckie-platforma-i-pis-boja-sie-porazki-w-wyborach-analiza/0x9tjtq -- ON A MACRO SCALE, THE DECISION WILL BE MADE BY AN OLDER VOTER FROM A SMALL OR MEDIUM-SIZED TOWN, DISTRUSTFUL OF PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS: “On a micro scale, there will be many such nuances. This means that if one of the candidates gains a small advantage, we will be able to wonder which segment decided it. However, if the advantage is greater, mobilization issues among traditional voters and their immediate surroundings will become most important. On a macro scale, the decision will be made by an older voter from a village or a small or medium-sized town, who votes less often and is distrustful of public institutions.” -- ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN, BUT I DON'T SEE HOW DUDA CAN LOSE - CHWEDORUK CONTINUES: “That's true, with the caveat that high turnout is an unpredictable element. Anything can happen. Although, of course, Andrzej Duda is the favorite. Without strategic errors by his campaign team, which I haven't noticed so far, I don't see how he can lose. While serious mistakes have appeared, for example, words about vaccinations, they were not of a strategic nature. Nevertheless, since Lech Kaczyński defeated Donald Tusk, this is the most uncertain campaign. https://fakty.interia.pl/autor/jolanta-kaminska/news-wybory-prezydenckie-2020-kto-rozstrzygnie-o-wyniku,nId,4599897 -- WHOEVER WINS, SHOULD ADDRESS PRIMARILY THE VOTERS OF THE LOSER - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “With such a small difference, even minor shifts in social moods can translate into who becomes president. About 10% of respondents are still unsure (or do not want to admit it) who they will vote for. Record turnout is anticipated. Supporters of both candidates are convinced that this is an election for everything, for the future of the country. Some experts are delighted by the record turnout. However, let's remember that it is the result of stirring up political emotions. The campaign will end, but the emotions will remain with us. On Monday, 10 million Poles will wake up in the Poland of their dreams, and another 10 million will wake up with a sense of defeat. Whoever wins should primarily address the voters of the loser.” https://www.rp.pl/Wybory-prezydenckie-2020/307099908-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Koszty-wysokiej-frekwencji.html -- TRZASKOWSKI IS A DAM AGAINST A VISION OF PUBLIC LIFE WHERE ONLY HALF THE SOCIETY MATTERS - JAKUB BODZIONY IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “The temperature of the political dispute means that the winner will have to govern a country divided in half. Regardless of who wins, the government has an obligation to act in such a way as to remember that the other half exists. Meanwhile, during Thursday's "interview" on TVP, Danuta Holecka asked the president what he should do to win, and Duda appealed to voters to "stand up for Poland." It is hard to find more divisive words that insult almost half of the citizens who declared their vote against Duda. Rafał Trzaskowski may be far from ideal for many people. However, it is certain that his victory would be a dam against the vision of public life proposed in this campaign by the ruling camp, in which only half of society matters.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/07/10/agresywna-kampania-pis-u-moze-miec-tragiczne-skutki-bodziony/ -- THE RICH, WELL-FED WARSAW ELITE WILL WANT TO RECLAIM THE MONEY THAT WENT TO RURAL POLAND - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “Every election campaign involves flirtations, courting voters, and artificial smiles. But in this one, the boundaries of reason have been significantly crossed. In my opinion, we are dealing with an attempt to sell Poles a radically left-wing, turbo-liberal, Balcerowicz-style economic policy under the banner of alleged concern for the poor. Whoever believes this will be greatly surprised. And probably will also feel it in their pocket. After all, the rich, well-fed Warsaw elite – yes, I assure you such a thing exists – will want to quickly reclaim the money that went to rural Poland.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/508587-oboz-iii-rp-rzucil-do-walki-wszystkie-zasoby -- ESTIMATED TURNOUT IS FALLING - PIOTR PACEWICZ ON IPSOS SURVEY FOR OKO.PRESS: “Our estimated turnout based on the poll is 62%. It has slightly decreased over the week; in a survey completed on July 1, it was 65%,” says Predko. Keeping in mind that the numbers are generally inflated, let's note that the mobilization of the first-round electorates is not equal. Voters of the losers go to the polls less often and also differ among themselves. Thus, participation in the vote on July 12 is declared by: 98% of Trzaskowski's first-round voters; 91% of Duda's voters; 82% of Hołownia's voters; 75% of Biedroń's voters; 74% of Kosiniak-Kamysz's voters, and 66% of Bosak's voters.” -- PACEWICZ ON RESERVES FOR BOTH CANDIDATES: “The mobilization of Hołownia's electorate may be of particular significance for the outcome. The 18% who are not going to vote seems like a small percentage, but it represents as much as 2.5% of all voters, which could mean up to half a million people. One-third of Bosak's voters who no longer wish to vote is almost as much (2.3% of all voters). The election result may depend on the final decisions of Bosak's and Hołownia's voters. The votes of those who did not participate in the first round will also be significant for the election outcome. As we have seen, those who now want to vote support both candidates equally, but 64% of them declare that they will stay home on July 12. And here lie some small reserves for both candidates.” -- DUDA'S ELECTORATE IS MOBILIZED TO THE POINT OF IMPOSSIBILITY - PACEWICZ CONTINUES: “We are also comparing decisive declarations of participation in the election across socioeconomic groups. There are some puzzling data here. Older voters, and especially the oldest, declare their participation in the election surprisingly high. In the 60+ age group, only 55.9% voted in the first round (according to the late poll by Ipsos on June 24), now as many as 90% announce their "decisive participation." This sounds not very credible, and it has a decisive impact on Duda's result, because in this large group of voters (almost one-third of all!), as many as 66% want to vote for the current president.” -- BUT THE BASIS OF DUDA'S LEAD IS FRAGILE, BECAUSE IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE IN SUCH MOBILIZATION - PACEWICZ CONTINUES: “All of this shows that the basis of Duda's lead (3 percentage points) in our poll is fragile and results from the declared mobilization of PiS/Duda's core electorate. It is hard to believe in such great mobilization. The chart below shows what election outcome respondents who declare they will vote for Duda expect (remember that on July 1, they constituted 48%, and on July 8, 50%). The view is striking: both 12 and 4 days before the election, almost all (92% and 91%) are confident in their candidate's chances. Compared to the previous poll four days before the election, the hope of voters declaring support for Trzaskowski in the second round has slightly increased from 64% to 68%, and the pessimistic forecast has decreased from 28% to 24%.” https://oko.press/duda-50-trzaskowski-47-proc-elektorat-dudy-wzmozony-opozycja-nie-dosc-wierzy-w-sukces/ -- WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GAZETA WYBORCZA ON HIS COUSIN WHO VOTED FOR BOSAK - IN THE USA, HE WOULD BE A TYPICAL TRUMP VOTER: “The nationalistic ideology of Konfederacja does not bother him, nor does it particularly concern him. Does he have conservative views? It's hard to say. Religion and the Church are not important to him, he is not afraid of foreigners, but he doesn't particularly like them either. The LGBT issue doesn't concern him. He is not interested in philosophy, he doesn't read books, because when would he? His knowledge of the world, like almost all young people, comes almost exclusively from the internet. If he adheres to any philosophy, it boils down to a simple thought – I have to manage on my own in life. In the USA, he would be a typical Trump voter.” -- GADOMSKI ON TRZASKOWSKI'S MISTAKE REGARDING DISTRIBUTION PROGRAMS: “Rafał Trzaskowski, if he wants to gain greater support from those who voted for Bosak in the final days, should, instead of further ideas for transfers, present a few simple but sensible and credible proposals for small entrepreneurs. Not promising further benefits (when they hear this, they reach for their wallets), subsidies from the EU, and cheap loans from money printed by the NBP, but respect and serious treatment.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,26114037,kampania-pelna-idiotyzmow-i-nieprawd-przekroczono-wszelkie.html -- SHOULD THE GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SUMMON THE POLISH AMBASSADOR FOR GMYZA'S TWEETS? - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “The campaign is full of idiocies that no longer surprise us. The president shouts that Germany will not choose our president for us. Because "Fakt" on its cover dealt with the pardon of a pedophile. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs summons (a term used by government TVP) representatives of the German embassy to explain that a German journalist from a private medium wrote or expressed himself in a way that PiS dislikes. We live in a land of absurdity. No one imagines a situation where the German foreign minister would summon the Polish embassy to account for the nonsense written by, for example, Cezary Gmyz, TVP's correspondent in Germany. Although in this case, it would be more justified, because TVP employees are PiS activists delegated to the media front. And Jacek Kurski's television is in reality a ministry of propaganda.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,26114037,kampania-pelna-idiotyzmow-i-nieprawd-przekroczono-wszelkie.html -- STANKIEWICZ ON THE PEOPLE BEHIND TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMPAIGN: “Aldona Machnowska-Góra and Karol Kretkowski. Both have a significant, informal influence on the presidential campaign. Officially, they are not in the campaign team, but they enjoy Trzaskowski's special trust because they work with him at the Warsaw City Hall. Machnowska-Góra wanted to work in theater since her studies. She unsuccessfully applied to theater school. But she still acted – on the stage of Teatr Konsekwentny. Later, she managed the capital's theaters. 'When a serious conflict erupted at Teatr Studio between artistic director Agnieszka Glińska and theater director Roman Osadnik, Aldona Machnowska-Góra was called in to extinguish the fire. Glińska resigned, Osadnik went on sick leave, and Machnowska-Góra, acting as his replacement, took radical action and fired the most vociferous actors,' wrote 'Gazeta Wyborcza' about her. She met Trzaskowski during the work on the 'Hear the Theater' project, which is theater for the deaf. When Trzaskowski ran for president of Warsaw in 2018, she joined his campaign team. After winning the election, she became director and coordinator for culture and social communication at the Warsaw City Hall. Kretkowski, on the other hand, comes from urban movements. He joined Trzaskowski before the 2018 elections. Today, he is his chief of staff. He is considered a grey eminence at City Hall.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/wybory-prezydenckie-2020-to-oni-stoja-za-trzaskowskim/cv720s2,79cfc278 -- 28 YEARS AGO Hanna Suchocka became the first woman prime minister of the Republic of Poland. -- 14 YEARS AGO Jarosław Kaczyński became prime minister. -- 19 YEARS AGO during the commemorations of the 60th anniversary of the Jedwabne pogrom, the President of the Republic of Poland, Aleksander Kwaśniewski, apologized "on my own behalf and on behalf of those Poles whose conscience is stirred by that crime.” -- THE BATTLE OF LEPANTO, a painting attributed to Jacopo Tintoretto. Battle of Lepanto (present-day Nafpaktos) – a naval battle fought on October 7, 1571, southwest of Lepanto between the Ottoman Empire and the Holy League, ending in a Christian victory. The Battle of Lepanto was one of the bloodiest naval battles in world history. The victory of the Christian forces boosted morale in Europe, but it was not militarily exploited. Grand Vizier Sokollu Mehmed Pasha explained to the Venetian ambassador the difference between your defeat and ours: "At Lepanto, the Christians shaved me. In Cyprus, I cut off their arm. My beard will grow back..." -- THE BATTLE OF LEPANTO IN PAOLO VERONESE'S VERSION: -- BIRTHDAYS: Killion Munyama, Michał Wilgocki, Ludwik Kotecki, Lucjan Karasiewicz.