state of play: 12/10/2018

Political Landscape: Zaremba on Rydzyk's Bargains as Secondary to Internal Agenda Issues and Scandal Allegations; Kukiz in Rzeczpospolita: Courts and Constitutional Tribunal Hijacked, Opposition Stifled, Media Muzzled

Łukasz Mężyk

-- ROSTOWSKI Praises Horała's Committee Leadership - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/12/10/

-- GAZETA.PL LAUNCHES A SERIES - SROCZYŃSKI'S WEEK: "Sroczyński's Week – every Sunday at 8 PM, Grzegorz Sroczyński of Gazeta.pl will summarize the week by describing perhaps the most important event of late. One that could influence the world, the power to change it. One worth exploring more deeply to understand what is happening right now."

-- MACRON Did the Climate a Disfavor - GRZEGORZ SROCZYŃSKI: “Macron quite unintentionally did the climate a disfavor – hundreds of thousands of French people were convinced that this whole global warming thing is about milking them of their last penny. It is truly puzzling that politicians – even those with a good social intuition like Macron – do not recognize the fears lurking within their societies. After all, it could have been predicted that the French provinces would react this way to fuel price hikes, as they lack public transport; a plumber, nurse, or teacher must have a car to get to work (we have the same problem in Poland). With the current earnings of most French people, an electric car is unaffordable. You don't need to be a fortune teller to connect these dots and predict the social reaction.”

-- SROCZYŃSKI on How to Convince Citizens to Fight for the Climate: “Liberals and the left are right to place the fight for climate at the center of public debate (unfortunately, this does not apply to Polish liberals, who are afraid of upsetting miners). But that's not enough. To convince the majority of citizens to fight for the climate, one must alleviate fears and increase the sense of security. Our climate package must also include care for greater cohesion within our societies.” http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114881,24257612,tylko-idioci-nie-wierza-w-globalne-ocieplenie-gdy-tak-mowisz.html

-- THE MYTHICAL FATHER RYDZYK PARTY IS A GAME PLAYED BY A FEW INDIVIDUALS ACCUSTOMED TO ACHIEVING SMALL GOALS THROUGH BLACKMAIL: “The mythical and noisily commented-upon 'Father Rydzyk party' is a game played by a few individuals accustomed to achieving small goals through blackmail. Although, of course, for PiS, it is another problem added to others, less than a year before the elections. There is always a risk that someone will push the envelope too far during the bidding.”

-- KACZYŃSKI'S FEAR OF A RIGHT-WING FRONDE MAY BE GREATLY EXAGGERATED - ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION THAT EARLIER ELECTIONS COULD BE BENEFICIAL: “Kaczyński's fear of a right-wing fronde may therefore be greatly exaggerated. Nevertheless, early parliamentary elections, even before the European ones, would definitively bury this threat. Other arguments also support this move. The PiS leader's speech in Jachranka offered no new messages nor mobilized voters. With internal agenda problems and scandal allegations hanging over them, dealings with Father Rydzyk can be a secondary issue.” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/opinie/artykuly/586940,partia-o-rydzyka-tadeusz-rydzyk-pis-eurowybory-kaczynski.html

-- PIS APPEARS TO BE AN EXHAUSTED PARTY WITH NO NEW IDEAS - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI - IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “After three years in power, PiS looks like an exhausted party with no new ideas. On the one hand, it knows it must lower the temperature of disputes to avoid excessively mobilizing its opponents, but at the same time, it will be difficult for it to prepare promises for future election campaigns that are even remotely comparable to those that won it the elections three years ago. The truth is that it has fulfilled most of the promises made then, which is why it is now a victim of its own success. Hence the common conviction among commentators and PiS politicians themselves that the leader's speech on Friday indicates that the party has not emerged from the defensive stance it has held for many weeks. But Jarosław Kaczyński can sleep soundly for now. The opposition today is simply not in a position to threaten PiS and behaves as if it wants to do everything to ensure PiS governs independently for another term.”

-- PIS MAY LOSE DUE TO ITS OWN EXHAUSTION AND ARROGANCE - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI'S CONCLUSION: “If this party can lose today, it will only be due to its own exhaustion, arrogance (as exemplified by Zbigniew Ziobro, suggesting that the KNF official beaten on the orders of the Wołomin mafia bosses himself emboldened the criminals), or by repeating that, yes, we make mistakes, but our predecessors made even more.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/312099963-Szuldrzynski-Wypalony-PiS--i-slaba-opozycja.html

-- TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA on Schetyna's Gamble with Fate, Arguing the Collapse of Nowoczesna is Irrelevant: “Let's note another circumstance. For many months, Grzegorz Schetyna has been repeating that he wants to create the largest opposition force competitive to PiS. He is not flaunting new proposals, not making drastic moves, not promising any novelties – he criticizes the ruling party and waits. Schetyna's long-term strategy is based on a certain gamble with fate. The Civic Platform leader expects that people will eventually tire of or become bored with PiS, and then the ruling party's greatest competitor will naturally win the elections. If that is the plan, Schetyna must do two things in the meantime. Firstly, he must consolidate the opposition camp so that he truly leads the largest opposition bloc. Secondly, he must suppress the competition and maintain decisive influence over this bloc.”

-- SAWCZUK SUGGESTS Schetyna's Strategy May Be Based on Conclusions from the Warsaw Campaign, Where All Opposition Votes Nonetheless Went to the Civic Platform Candidate: “The practical choice will then be simple: one can become part of a coalition that will remove PiS from power, or not be part of it. Similar to the Warsaw mayoral election – there may be many candidates, but ultimately all opposition votes will go to the Civic Platform candidate. If Schetyna's strategy is correct, then the absorption of Nowoczesna by the Civic Platform is irrelevant. What matters is the balance of power. Fewer seats for Nowoczesna on election lists means more cake to divide.”

-- IT IS UNKNOWN IF SCHETYNA WILL WIN HIS GAMBLE WITH FATE - SAWCZUK'S CONCLUSION: “The beauty of Schetyna's strategy lies in the fact that all its measurable effects are deferred, and temporary turbulences do not need to be worried about so much. If Schetyna is right, then the feverishness on the opposition side will pass after some time. And it will turn out that the situation has unfolded in his favor. The weakest point of this method of operation is, of course, the following: it is unknown whether Schetyna will win his gamble with fate. He may have suffocated Nowoczesna, but will the hard-line consolidation of the anti-PiS bloc be enough to defeat Kaczyński?”

-- ADAM SZOSTKIEWICZ WRITES THAT ONLY A JOINT LIST: “Whoever does not want Kaczyński, Ziobro, Gowin, and Duda in power has two political goals to pursue. A smaller one, which is to deprive the PiS right-wing of a parliamentary majority, and a maximal one, which is to deprive this right-wing of power. Both goals are served by a joint list of the democratic bloc. Its absence or poor quality serves PiS.” https://szostkiewicz.blog.polityka.pl/2018/12/08/tylko-wspolna-lista/?nocheck=1

-- NO ONE WILL BE ABLE TO GOVERN WITHOUT KUKIZ’15 - PAWEŁ KUKIZ IN CONVERSATION WITH JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “After the next parliamentary elections, no one in Poland will be able to govern without Kukiz’15. If I were to enter into a coalition with PO or PiS, I would resign from the position of Deputy Prime Minister after a month. Why? I would want to be Prime Minister only for a short while, so that my grandchildren could read in an encyclopedia what was achieved. I would then step aside for an expert with the highest qualifications. I am not meant for governing because I don't know how. I am not a civil servant. I am here to change the system to be pro-citizen.”

-- TODAY THERE IS NO DEMOCRACY - KUKIZ TELLS NIZINKIEWICZ: “We know how it ended. The People's Republic of Poland collapsed. PiS's rule will also end. Back then, they also spoke of freedom. Today, there is not even democracy. The state has been deprived of organs that control power. The courts have been taken over, the Constitutional Tribunal has been taken over, the opposition is being stifled, the media are being muzzled. People are increasingly noticing this.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/312099953-Kukiz-Sluzby-zawiodly-w-sprawie-KNF.html

-- DON'T TRUST RYSZARD, MEANING NAJTISY TERAZ! - MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI in Krytyka Polityczna: “Ryszard Petru appears like Jan Szyszko of political economy: with unwavering self-confidence, he proclaims as revealed truths ideas that the civilized world considered harmful intellectual fossils about a decade ago. I greatly admire Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus – for defending the rights and dignity of people with disabilities and their caregivers, for her heroic resistance to both fascism and common vulgarity in the Polish Sejm, for her principled stance on women's rights and the secularity of the state. Therefore, it is even more regrettable to me that perhaps the most distinguished MP of this term has become the face of such a nightmarish spectacle as the announcement of the Teraz! party's program. http://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/nie-ufaj-ryszardowi-czyli-najntisy-teraz/

-- AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK DEFINES PIS PROBLEMS AND STRATEGY BASED ON AN INTERVIEW WITH PROF. PARUCH: “From the conversation with Prof. Paruch, it appears that the government will no longer be as offensive as it has been. If it heeds its advisor. Therefore, the opposition should not count on actions that will fuel massive demonstrations. Whom will Law and Justice fight for in the next elections? Paruch presents a surprising concept: it intends to fight for wavering voters, but not for the center: ‘The thinking in terms of left, right, center, and reasoning that if PiS wins over this mythical center, it will surely win, is over. The key to victory lies with wavering, undecided voters who do not reason politically but are guided by context, situation, image, emotions. They are the ones who determine the election winner.’ ‘The results of the 2019 elections will be decided by voters who are not politically or ideologically determined. Today, we have polarization according to a clear pattern: about 20% go to the polls to ensure Jarosław Kaczyński wins, and 20% go to the polls to ensure Jarosław Kaczyński loses. The winner, however, is determined by the remaining voters who vote for various reasons: contextual, situational, image-related, self-serving.’ https://oko.press/czego-boi-sie-pis-i-jak-moze-przegrac-wybory-w-2019/

-- THE ANTI-PIS ELECTORATE NEEDS TO BE PUT TO SLEEP AND SENSITIVE ISSUES LIKE ABORTION SHOULD NOT BE RAISED - Dominika Wielowieyska on the PiS parliamentary club: “During the weekend meeting of the PiS club, Jarosław Kaczyński argued that the anti-PiS electorate needs to be put to sleep before the elections. But Zbigniew Ziobro has just woken him up.”

-- WIELOWIEYSKA ON THE PRESIDENT ASKING MPs TO READ MAX WEBER ON THE ETHICS OF RESPONSIBILITY: “He asked the MPs to read the German sociologist Max Weber and his reflections on the ethics of responsibility that should govern politics. Because a politician cannot be guided by morality, but by responsibility, and must foresee the consequences of their decisions. And these – according to Kaczyński – are obvious. Banning abortion will mobilize voters to vote against PiS, which will lose the election. Then the left, as well as the political center, will liberalize the law, and thus an action consistent with conscience will bring the opposite effect to the intended one.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24259106,instrukcje-pana-prezesa-dla-swoich-ludzi-za-zamknietymi-drzwiami.html

-- PIS TRIES TO SUBSTITUTE KNF SCANDALS - title in Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.**

-- BARTOSZ GODUSŁAWSKI AND GRZEGORZ OSIECKI QUOTE AN INDIVIDUAL FROM THE PRIME MINISTER'S CIRCLE IN DGP: “It is difficult to believe such accusations against Wojciech Kwaśniak, who was severely beaten on the orders of individuals from SKOK Wołomin. The manner and timing of the arrest are devastating to the reputation of the supervision. Today, every official will think twice, and perhaps even refuse to sign any document or issue a decision. It will also be difficult to attract or retain valuable employees in the office – says a person close to the head of government, adding that this does not determine guilt, but the way the case is handled significantly damages the reputation of the KNF, which was already tarnished by the Chrzanowski affair.

-- PROF. DUDEK ON THE NEED TO COUNT ON ONE'S OWN IMPRISONMENT: “– PiS has truly embarked on a warpath. If they are imprisoning opposition members, one must count on ending up in prison themselves in the future – emphasizes Antoni Dudek.” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/586941,afera-knf-pis-chrzanowski-jakubiak-kwasniak.html

-- ZIOBRO IS LOSING HIS TEMPER - Gazeta Wyborcza's lead story: “Even within government circles, Minister of Justice and Prosecutor General Zbigniew Ziobro is being criticized for his actions against former heads of the Financial Supervision Authority – according to Gazeta Wyborcza's information. (...) Not even anyone from the government defended Ziobro's statements. Especially since at the weekend convention of the PiS Parliamentary Club in Jachranka, party leader Jarosław Kaczyński appealed to calm emotions, as they are affecting the ruling camp's ratings.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24260326,ziobro-traci-nerwy-w-sprawie-afery-knf-a-pis-traci-nerwy-w.html

-- WHAT ARE THOUSANDS OF HONEST OFFICIALS SUPPOSED TO THINK AFTER ZIOBRO'S WORDS? - Paweł Wroński in Gazeta Wyborcza: “It’s interesting what thousands of honest public servants are thinking now after Ziobro's words. Perhaps they now understand that they too can be visited by CBA agents in balaclavas at 6 AM and transported across half of Poland only to face extremely idiotic charges of cooperating with gangsters. (...) Now he is trying to destroy people who served the Republic, attempting to destroy their good names and drag them through PiS mud. He is pushing our country into an area of moral gangrene, where the only valued principle is the ruling party's retention of power. It is unclear whom to fear more in Poland: bandits or the Prosecutor General?” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24260063,kogo-w-polsce-bac-sie-bardziej-bandytow-czy-prokuratora-generalnego.html

-- I STILL FEEL THREATENED - WOJCIECH KWAŚNIAK in conversation with Ewa Ivanova and Wojciech Czuchnowski in Gazeta Wyborcza: “I appear as a witness in many cases. Not only those related to Wołomin, but also others based on KNF reports. Precisely for personal safety reasons, due to the lack of any protection for myself and my family, I always request to give testimony in Warsaw. A few months ago, prosecutors came from a distant location and questioned me at work, understanding the problem.”

-- MY CASE IS UNFORTUNATE FOR BOTH THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT AUTHORITIES - KWAŚNIAK CONTINUES: “My case is unfortunate for public authorities. Both the previous and current ones. I do not recall anyone from the government issuing a statement after the attack that this is unacceptable and that the state will severely punish the perpetrators. Then, after the change of government, I was left alone with this entire matter. Only now, with this arrest, has the prosecution acted at the highest level; there were – as I learn – orders from headquarters, a press conference was organized… The disproportion is obvious.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24260220,wojciech-kwasniak-byly-wiceszef-knf-to-ci-ktorzy-postawili.html

-- THE HIGH PRICE OF A BASE PROVOCATION - Witold Gadomski in Gazeta Wyborcza: “The sanctimonious Gowin, who claims to be a statesman in every other sentence, is silent. Those PiS activists who showed courage during martial law are silent. Today, they lack courage. Prime Minister Morawiecki, who knows the background of the SKOK Wołomin case well, is silent. The action by PiS prosecutors is so clumsily executed that it will become a major problem for PiS. The media recall how PiS activists and the late brother of the party leader defended SKOKs for years against external control. This matter has been known for a long time; it is now returning with renewed force.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24257809,kleska-prymitywnej-prowokacji-pis-moze-drogo-zaplacic-za-zatrzymanie.html

-- THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF RZECZPOSPOLITA STRONGLY COMMENTS ON THE CASE OF FORMER KNF HEADS - as written by Bogusław Chrabota: “I appeal for transparency in the proceedings against the former heads of the Commission. This is required by the national interest. (...) This investigation is an important test of its credibility, which will determine whether the prosecutors are acting in the interest of citizens or on political orders. Reveal your cards, Prosecution!” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/312099961-Chrabota-Prokuraturo-odkryj-karty-w-sprawie-KNF.html

-- CBA PROTECTS DEPUTY HEALTH MINISTER AND DRUG PRICE HIKES - Judyta Watoła in Gazeta Wyborcza: “We are discussing this with MPs. They all want to remain anonymous. – This letter looks like it was written by a Czech, not the CBA – believes one of them. – The CBA is concerned about the profits of corporations, not the expenses of the sick – points out another. We asked the Bureau a week ago on what basis Sakowicz bases his claims. We have not received an answer to this day.” http://wyborcza.pl/TylkoZdrowie/7,137421,24259969,cba-chroni-wiceministra-zdrowia-i-podwyzki-lekow-przyznaje.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Aleksander Smolar, Adam Rapacki, Klaudiusz Michalec.


Łukasz Mężyk