state of play: 12/06/2018

Political Chessboard: Opposition Voters Confused, PO May Swallow Nowoczesna Whole, and Right-Wing Divisions Emerge

Łukasz Mężyk

-- THE FRONT PAGE OF "DZIENNIK BAŁTYCKI" ON PROBLEMS WITH THE DOUBLE AGE COHORT IN SCHOOLS.

-- SCHETYNA ON THREE MAJOR CONVENTIONS, BIEDROŃ ON VOTERS NOT ASKING IF HE'LL DO IT WITH BASIA OR WŁODEK - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/12/06

-- PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN "GAZETA WYBORCZA" ON THE CONFUSION OF OPPOSITION VOTERS: “The Civic Coalition achieved a decent result in the local elections because voters positively assessed the "unity effect." I don't think they will view what is currently happening in the Sejm in a similar way. The maneuver with a joint parliamentary club resembles less a joyful declaration of consistent cooperation in the name of saving democracy in Poland, and more a feast where the stronger PO devours the weaker Nowoczesna. Voters will be confused and surprised by what has happened. They may surmise whether opposition politicians have temporarily decided that internal reshuffles and personal ambitions are more important than the fight against PiS for democracy.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24246855,platforma-tak-mocno-objela-nowoczesna-ze-az-partnerowi-pekly.html

-- THIS SHOW OF STRENGTH WILL NOT PAY OFF FOR SCHETYNA IN THE LONG RUN - ŁUKASZ LIPIŃSKI IN "POLITYKA": “This show of strength will not pay off for the PO leader in the long run. It will discourage other potential coalition partners, weaken the ideological and personal offering of the Civic Coalition, and alienate some voters.”

-- THE CIVIC COALITION'S ATTRACTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE - LIPIŃSKI CONTINUES: “The Civic Coalition's attractive potential will also decrease. Nowoczesna differed from PO in several areas; it was more socially liberal, more firmly advocated for the separation of church and state, and placed greater emphasis on entrepreneurship. And greater programmatic diversity means a broader offering for voters. Now there is a significant risk that everything will be homogenized. Especially within Platforma, which is considered a pragmatic, idea-drained party of power – without power. Schetyna decided that a show of strength and keeping a disciplinary army in the background were more important than all of this. In less than a year, we will see if he is right.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1774306,1,w-sejmie-powstal-klub-platforma-obywatelska---koalicja-obywatelska.read?src=mt

-- GASIUK, CONTRARY TO WHAT SHE SAID IN PO, DID NOT HAVE A MAJORITY - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ on Onet: “When Gasiuk-Pihowicz presented the resolution on creating a joint club to Nowoczesna MPs yesterday morning, the leaders of Platforma were aware of it. The snag is that Gasiuk-Pihowicz made a schoolboy political error – contrary to what she told her interlocutors from PO, she miscalculated her influence within the N. club and lost the vote. - It was a huge surprise for us - admits one of the most important politicians from Platforma. - We were convinced that the Nowoczesna club would vote for the merger and Lubnauer would be cornered.”

-- NEITHER LUBNAUER NOR GASIUK WILL HAVE ANYTHING TO SAY ANYMORE - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “From Platforma's perspective, the liquidation of Nowoczesna has – as we hear from our interlocutors – several advantages. Firstly, the problems arising from the regular internal conflicts in .N, which caused trouble for the Civic Coalition, will disappear. Secondly, KO will from now on have one decision-making center – Grzegorz Schetyna, who will no longer have to consult with Lubnauer, and sometimes additionally with Gasiuk-Pihowicz, as was the case until now. This, thirdly, will facilitate Schetyna's negotiations on expanding the Civic Coalition to include new parties, especially PSL and SLD. To put it bluntly, neither Lubnauer nor Gasiuk-Pihowicz will have anything to say on this matter anymore. In this way, Schetyna is a step closer to realizing his dream – building an electoral list for the parliamentary elections such that the opponents of PiS have no other alternative.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/tak-schetyna-zatopil-nowoczesna-analiza/8jcty9z

-- WHOEVER WALKS WITH PLATFORMA, DISAPPEARS QUICKLY - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Everyone dreaming of a grand anti-PiS front should remember this lesson: anyone who gets close enough to be embraced, anyone who signals they believe in Platforma, trusts it, who weakens their subjectivity through talks and cooperation, will be gladly welcomed, but only to be immediately politically suffocated. Ruthlessly, brutally, in a humiliating way. Because the plan does not envision any grand common front, only one big Civic Platform led by Grzegorz Schetyna. Therefore, on the opposition side, the motto for the winter is simple: Whoever walks with Platforma, disappears quickly.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/424280-kto-z-platforma-pomyka-ten-szybko-znika

-- GRZEGORZ SCHETYNA MAY CHOKE ON NOWOCZESNA - RENATA GROCHAL: “Grzegorz Schetyna has decided to swallow the appetizer in the form of Nowoczesna. But this is a risky operation, as some of that party's voters may drift to Robert Biedroń or Ryszard Petru. (...) It is not out of the question that Lubnauer – cornered – will eventually yield and agree to the merger. However, this terrible style of swallowing Nowoczesna does not bode well for the future cooperation of politicians from both parties, nor for building a broader opposition agreement for the next elections. Leaders of other groupings may have reservations about talks with PO, seeing how it treats smaller partners. And these reservations will be justified.” https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/grzegorz-schetyna-moze-sie-zadlawic-nowoczesna/0ltyhec

-- ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA ON A SEAT FOR GASIUK-PIHOWICZ IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT - writes in RZ: “Behind the agreement on merging concluded by Kamila Gasiuk-Pihowicz and Grzegorz Schetyna are, of course, the elections and the fight for spots on the lists. Those who have better chances in PO are pushing for the merger. Kamila Gasiuk-Pihowicz has reportedly been promised a winning spot in the European Parliament. Those who have previously offended PO prefer to maintain organizational independence, hoping that Katarzyna Lubnauer will negotiate better positions as part of the coalition and, at the same time, a competitor to PO.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/181209711-Dabrowska-PO-i-Nowoczesna-Na-razie-wesela-nie-bedzie.html

-- SHE BEHAVED LIKE KAŁUŻA IN SILESIA - LUBNAUER ON GASIUK in a conversation with Jacek Nizinkiewicz in RZ: “We talked, but I have the impression she made her decision a long time ago. A wrong decision, devoid of realism, to weaken Nowoczesna. She was the head of Nowoczesna's Parliamentary Club, the head of the region, and should have been loyal to the party members and all MPs. She is responsible for the strength of the Nowoczesna Parliamentary Club, not just for her own comfortable position. However, if one wants to behave like Wojciech Kałuża in Silesia, then they take responsibility for it.” https://www.rp.pl/Nowoczesna/312059940-Lubnauer-Z-konfliktow-opozycji-cieszy-sie-tylko-PiS.html&template=restricted

-- GAZETA WYBORCZA ON DOUBTS ABOUT RENTING THE KNF HEADQUARTERS - ON THE FRONT PAGE: “Marek Chrzanowski, as head of the KNF, rented an office building for PLN 131.6 million – despite the legal department's objections. Counsel Grzegorz Kowalczyk wrote an appropriate opinion. The KNF legal department did not agree to the lease agreement. Its director, Zdzisław Osada, considered the price too high – PLN 1.07 million per month for 13.9 thousand sq m for 123 months – and it more than doubled the previous rental costs incurred by the Commission. He pointed out that the parent company of the owner of Piękna 20 is located in Cyprus and is owned by entities with Russian capital. As a result, no money from the rent would flow to the state treasury. The General Procuratory had similar reservations, as it must issue an opinion on the agreement due to its high value.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24247421,piekna-i-wielka-kasa-knf-wyborcza-ujawnia-jak-komisja-wynajmowala.html#nowaZajawkaGlownaMT

-- JAKUB MAJMUREK ON THE RISK OF A NEW PARTY ON THE RIGHT: “Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the Movement for Real Europe never runs in any elections on its own. If it turns out that from the beginning it wasn't an idea for a new political force. At best, it was calculated to add a new wing to the United Right coalition, and at worst, to give more seats to people close to Toruń and pressure PiS on the issue of abortion. The question is how much more PiS can yield to Toruń. The party truly needs votes from the center to win. If voters believe that Father Rydzyk actually calls the shots at Nowogrodzka Street, it will be difficult to even replicate the vote from 2015. PiS cannot become the "Rydzyk party," especially in the context of the European elections. This will mobilize the urban electorate and give the Civic Coalition victory. PiS might not be particularly concerned about seats in the European Parliament, but a defeat will have a significant psychological impact on the campaign for the parliamentary elections in the autumn.” https://opinie.wp.pl/czarny-sen-kaczynskiego-na-prawicy-rodzi-sie-nowy-ruch-partia-rydzyka-6324219818059905a

-- KACZYŃSKI DOESN'T LIKE BEING BLACKMAILED - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA:“Jarosław Kaczyński doesn't like being blackmailed, so the game could be interesting. Rydzyk will probably be willing to give up running independently if he negotiates appropriate terms with the PiS leader, such as more places on the electoral lists and more money for his projects. He might be counting on his formation being a separate entity within the PiS camp, like the parties of Jarosław Gowin and Zbigniew Ziobro. Rydzyk could ally himself with the latter.”

-- WIELOWIEYSKA ON ZBIGNIEW ZIOBRO NOT CLAPPING FOR ABP. DZIĘDZIO:“Questions are being asked whether Ziobro will join Rydzyk's party. The Minister of Justice certainly uses his friendship with Toruń as a bargaining chip, but it is characteristic that when Archbishop Andrzej Dzięga said that "a state that allows the killing of its own children is a state without a future," Ziobro – unlike other PiS politicians – did not clap. Some may find it amusing to dwell on such details, but in PiS, they know that Kaczyński pays attention to this. It seems Ziobro has decided not to provoke the tiger for now.”

-- IF PIS DOESN'T REACH AN AGREEMENT WITH FATHER RYDZYK, THE OPPOSITION CAN BUY POPCORN - WIELOWIEYSKA'S CONCLUSION: “The PiS leader must at least neutralize Father Rydzyk in this regard, since he has no chance of silencing parts of the Episcopate. However, this will cost Kaczyński – or rather us taxpayers, because the money will flow to Father Rydzyk from the budget – a lot. And if the Redemptorist does not reach an agreement with the PiS leader, then the opposition can buy popcorn and sit back satisfied in the audience to watch this exciting match.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24247418,jaroslaw-z-warszawy-juz-nie-dzwoni-do-torunia-czyli-co-trzeba.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Konrad Szymański, Janusz Wojciechowski, Marcin Walter.


Łukasz Mężyk