state of play: 11/13/2018
-- CLOSER TO US ARMY BASES IN POLAND - JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI IN RZ 'JEDYNKA': “This is not yet a decision to permanently station US troops on the Vistula, but a joint letter from ambassadors is a significant step in this direction.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/311129962-Coraz-blizej-do-baz-US-Army-w-Polsce.html
-- TUSK DEMONSTRATES SOLIDARITY WITH CIVIC PLATFORM LEADER - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “There can be only one conclusion: Tusk is demonstrating solidarity with the leader of Civic Platform and offering assistance in uniting the opposition. The words about a rider on a white horse suggest that Tusk does not want to take leadership away from Schetyna, nor does he believe a Polish Macron will emerge to capture the crowds, and he doesn't see Robert Biedroń, who is currently building his own formation, in that role.”
-- WIELOWIEYSKA ON THE ANOINTMENT OF KOSINIAK BEING A REPEAT OF PiS'S STRATEGY, AS SCHETYNA IS UNPOPULAR: “Unofficial information has appeared in the media that the President of the European Council held talks with Polish opposition politicians and tempted the Polish People's Party (PSL) with the vision of a common coalition, offering the leader of the PSL, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, the role of coalition candidate for prime minister. Tusk has denied this. Nevertheless, the concept with Kosiniak-Kamysz – if someone came up with it – is an evident repeat of Jarosław Kaczyński's strategy. The PiS leader – just like the Civic Platform leader Grzegorz Schetyna – ranks at the bottom of popular politicians. That's why Kaczyński put popular politicians like Andrzej Duda and Beata Szydło at the forefront. Among opposition politicians, Kosiniak-Kamysz could play such a role.”
-- WIELOWIEYSKA ON THE TEMPTATION TO COMBINE PARLIAMENTARY AND EUROPEAN ELECTIONS: “Bielan points this out and suggests that the ruling camp is brainstorming how to tackle this challenge. I believe that one of the solutions could be to bring forward the parliamentary elections and hold them together with the European elections in the spring. Then PiS voters, including those in rural areas, will turn out in large numbers, and Kaczyński's party will secure a good position in the European Parliament as well. The PiS leader can count on the opposition not yet being united by spring, and Robert Biedroń not having enough time to build anything lasting.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24160589,kaczynski-nie-bedzie-sie-bezczynnie-przygladal-ofensywie-tuska.html
-- BIELAN ON KNF: If the facts are as presented by the newspaper, they will mean the necessity of drawing consequences - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/11/13
-- GW LEAD STORY: 40 MILLION AND NO TROUBLE - Wojciech Czucnowski and Agnieszka Kublik: “Out of the blue, he asks the banker, 'Don't you see any need to increase your resources when it comes to lawyers?': 'You know, I can recommend someone. I think it would be beneficial for both the office and the entire institution.' Chrzanowski suggests how much this lawyer should be paid: 'Well, I don't know what your remuneration system is in the bank, but I think if you linked it to the bank's results, right? Then it would also somehow guarantee that the lawyer would be more engaged. Within the horizon of the next few years, it would be as you think, right? Perhaps a solution that the bank could, so to speak, rely on, this person would support the state in the restructuring process.'”
-- THREAD OF CONVERSATION WITH GLAPIŃSKI: “The conversation is coming to an end. The gentlemen agree to cross the street after the break, where the National Bank of Poland is located. They have a meeting there with Adam Glapiński, the president of NBP. Chrzanowski makes fun of the official who runs Glapiński's office: 'Somewhere in Wrocław, she was advertising stockings, and now she's the deputy director of the office.'”
-- THREAD ABOUT HOW THE KNF HEAD SPEAKS ABOUT HIS DIFFICULT RELATIONSHIP WITH THE PRIME MINISTER: “Chrzanowski says he 'doesn't value Sokala for his intelligence.' And adds: 'I see this is an attempt to do something with my hands.' He presents his difficult situation: 'You know, I am the object of attacks, and you know that my relationship with the Prime Minister recently, shall we say, is not the best.' In a long, rather murky explanation, he clarifies that in the part of the government managing finances, 'there are two camps.' He, Chrzanowski, is in the 'camp focused around the NBP.' The 'second camp' is the finance ministry, which wants to limit the KNF's powers.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24161195,spokoj-za-40-milionow-bankier-leszek-czarnecki-oskarza-komisje.html
-- RZ EDITOR-IN-CHIEF COMPLEMENTS TUSK: “Tusk did not compromise himself in Brussels. He gained strength, confidence, and political significance. He is recognizable, influential, and by the mere fact that he can call any politician in the world at any time of day or night, he has no competitors on the opposition side today. Moreover, he is an undisputed authority in anti-PiS circles and in great form, as confirmed in his subsequent appearances. So, there is someone to fear. But will he decide to return to active politics in the country?” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/181119894-Tusk-wraca-do-polskiej-polityki.html
-- A SEA OF FLAGS FLOODED POLAND - title in Fakt.
-- POLITICIANS, YOU STILL HAVEN'T GROWN UP TO UNITY - title in Fakt.
-- ABW OUTPACED EXTREMISTS - title in RZ.
-- THE CENTENNIAL EXAM WAS PASSED - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The overwhelming majority of the quarter of a million people who marched through the capital on Independence Day were people who wanted to joyfully manifest their attachment to their homeland, to the white and red flag. And thanks and congratulations are due to all those who demonstrated peacefully, as well as to those who ensured their safety, at the dawn of the new century of Polish independence.”
-- THE DANGER OF DISRUPTION WAS REAL, THE SERVICES DESERVE RECOGNITION FOR NOT ALLOWING THE HOLIDAY TO TURN INTO NEONAZI MOURNING - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “No banners proclaiming legally prohibited ideology were carried. The services detained about 100 neo-Nazis who could have disrupted the November 11th celebrations, and the Border Guard prevented individuals from a list of 400 people identified by the services as posing a threat to state security on November 11th from entering the country. The danger of the celebrations being disrupted by neo-Nazi circles was therefore quite real, and the state services deserve recognition for not allowing the common holiday to turn into neo-Nazi mourning.”
-- CELEBRATING WITH A FOOTBALL FAN ENTOURAGE IS A SERIOUS PROBLEM FOR MANY COMPATRIOTS - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI'S CONCLUSION IN RZ: “Just in case, I remind the rulers that Independence Day falls on November 11th next year, so there are exactly 12 months to propose to Poles a joint celebration devoid of football entourage and ONR company, which is a serious problem for many compatriots.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/311129968-Szuldrzynski-Egzamin--ze-stulecia-zdany.html&template=restricted
-- ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI FROM KULTURA LIBERALNA ASKS ABOUT ONR: “PiS politicians repeat that fascists and ONR members constituted only a few percent of the march on November 11th. Why, then, was this small group a co-organizer of the culminating point of the celebrations of the most important anniversary in years?” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2018/11/13/pawlowski-marsz-niepodleglosci-pis-narodowcy/
-- TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA WRITES THAT PIS OUTWITTED THE NATIONALISTS: “The police report that 250,000 people participated in the march. Jarosław Kaczyński's party thus not only took the lead of the largest event held in Poland on November 11th, but the lead of an event so large that it would not have been able to organize on its own under different circumstances. Of course, it happened in an atmosphere of organizational chaos, political bickering with nationalists, and a lack of any communication with the opposition. But this is nothing new, and few will pay attention to it. By taking over the march, PiS gained an opportunity to meet with some of its voters.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2018/11/12/sawczuk-marsz-niepodleglosci-pis-komentarz/
-- ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI ON PiS'S PROBLEM: IT WILL LOSE RADICAL VOTERS AND WON'T CONVINCE CENTRIST ONES - writes in Kultura Liberalna: “The longer Law and Justice governs, the more it must adapt to changing social moods, fears, and hopes. Donald Tusk was able to go from a supporter of a 15% flat tax to – as he said in 'Polityka' – 'a bit of a social democrat.' PiS has also changed over the years – for example, in economic policy – but this party's adaptive capabilities are much smaller than Tusk's, who promised 'warm water in the tap.' Moving in a short period from a party fighting the European Union, conservative, hunting down 'post-communist' networks, and fueling conspiracy theories around the Smolensk catastrophe – to a centrist party of smiling patriots open to the EU may end in a double defeat. PiS will lose its radical voters and won't convince the centrists. Or, as President Kaczyński once cleverly put it: it will lose its virtue and earn no penny.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2018/11/13/pawlowski-pis-strategia-wybory-morawiecki-kaczynski/
-- TOMASZ SAWCZUK WRITES THAT THERE IS NO TALK OF PiS'S END, EVEN THOUGH IT MAY SEEM WEAKER THAN BEFORE: “There is no question of the 'end of PiS' at the moment. Only the triumphalist and undisturbed march of the party towards power and glory has ended, which had to end because it was based on unrealistic expectations from the start. PiS is drifting and currently has no clear idea how to adapt to the new circumstances, which is why it may seem weaker than before. However, Jarosław Kaczyński's grouping remains the strongest player on the political scene, has many tools of action, and remains the main candidate for victory in next year's parliamentary elections.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2018/11/13/tomasz-sawczuk-pis-3-lata-kryzys/
-- MARCIN FIJOŁEK ON A QUITE SUCCESSFUL 11.11 AND THE NATIONALISTS' DISORIENTATION: “If the mentioned mirrors and the incident with the burned EU flag were essentially the only unpleasantries in such a large gathering that passed through the streets of Warsaw on November 11th, then we must say clearly: this maneuver by the current rulers, which seemed very makeshift just a few days ago, succeeded. It boosted the already large turnout of the march, civilized its course, and channeled the social emotions and attitudes of those who wanted to count themselves, see, and experience such a large march on November 11th. It is therefore not surprising that there is some disorientation on the nationalist side and announcements that they will have to 'fight the government over the Independence March.'” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/420709-calkiem-udany-1111-kilka-egzaminow-zostalo-zdanych
-- IT WAS A KNOCKOUT, THE BAD GUYS LOST ZERO - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “It was prepared classically for this bunch: Tusk incites (Bolshevism), Gronkiewicz-Waltz provokes riots (attempt to block the Independence March), and Schetyna prepares his own celebrations. None of it worked. Tusk's 'Bolshevism' showed that he's losing touch with the public; it really wasn't a trump card that built his position. Blocking the march, thanks to the efficient counteraction of President Duda and Prime Minister Morawiecki, failed. The Civic Platform's celebrations were so lackluster compared to the original ones that the organizers probably regret attempting that path.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/spoleczenstwo/420687-kochani-trzeba-to-powiedziec-glosno-to-byl-nokaut
-- SUTOWSKI: NATIONALISTS BIT THE HAND THAT DARED TO PET THEM - DUDA PETTED THEM ON THE HEAD: “On November 11th, the nationalists were Sprite, and the government was thirst. The nationalists won. They held their march on November 11th as they do every year, only bigger. The court confirmed that they have the right to march. The sea of Polish flags, szczerbców and falang was a bit less, the scale of excesses was within norms, curses and hatred were about as much as could be expected. But most importantly – for the first time, the nationalists reduced the government to the role of a petitioner to the organizers of the event, Mayor Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz to an ineffective spoiler, and the left on that day – regrettably, damn it – to an insignificant margin.” http://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/sutowski-marsz-niepodleglosci-komentarz/
-- EVEN IF PIS DIDN'T LOOK BACK, THEY CAN'T PRETEND THEY SAW NOTHING - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ: “The fact that at one point the security services created a buffer several hundred meters long between the PiS march and the nationalists' procession will change nothing. Even if the president, prime minister, and president did not look back, they cannot pretend that they saw nothing.”
-- NATIONALISTS TRAPPED PIS - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “All this shows that the marginal, albeit loud, nationalistic environment has trapped PiS. The tribulations with the ban on the Independence March led the PiS leaders to decide to sit down for negotiations with the nationalists regarding a joint procession. Under pressure of time, they made – as it turns out – far-reaching concessions. Otherwise, the march might not have happened at all, which threatened nationalist unrest, which would have been a reputational disaster for PiS.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/marsz-zielonych-ludzikow-komentarz/ds71k16
-- THE STATE AGAINST THE WALL - AND EVERYTHING WE SAW IS AT THE STATE'S ACCOUNT - JAKUB MAJMUREK: “The fact that representatives of the government and the president separated themselves from the far-right part of the so-called Independence March with a kilometer-long cordon changes nothing. No one will be fooled by the trick with two marches. The president and the government reached an agreement with the nationalists and made them co-hosts of the state ceremonies – so all that we saw at the march is now at the account of the state and its ruling PiS elite.” https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/marsz-w-warszawie-panstwo-pod-prawa-sciana/c88pnt6
-- IDEOLOGICAL EMPTINESS BEHIND A VEIL OF BANNERS - KATARZYNA KOLENDA-ZALESKA in GW: “However, Independence Day showed something more. This should be an opportunity for the authorities to outline a plan for the future. The past and present are important, but the future is most important. In this sense, these celebrations were completely wasted because they showed that the authorities focused on empty gestures – unveiling monuments, marches, breaking records in singing the anthem. What are the implications for the future? Absolutely nothing. (...) Because it is this holiday that should be an occasion to present a political vision by those governing our country. And the Independence Day was a picture of emptiness, which a large number of white and red flags were supposed to cover.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24160589,obchody-rocznicowe-pokazaly-ideowa-pustke-za-zaslona-sztandarow.html
-- PIS HAS LOST THE CENTER, SO IT WILL FIGHT FOR THE EXTREME ELECTORATE - KRZYSZTOF PACEWICZ in GW: “Scorned by the center and the middle class, PiS will strive for maximum political polarization, hoping to increase its holdings by a few percent of the radical right electorate. It needs these additional few percent to at least repeat its result from the last parliamentary elections in a year. And if the votes of left-wing voters are once again divided among several committees and wasted, it will be enough for Kaczyński to stay in power.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24159107,pis-stracil-centrum-powalczy-wiec-o-elektorat-nacjonalistow.html
-- BIRTHDAYS: Adam Szejnfeld (turning 60), Daniel Adamski, Rafał Brzoska, Stanisław Wziątek, Andrzej Bratkowski.
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