state of play: 11/08/2018

POLISH POLITICS STATE OF PLAY: Gronkiewicz-Waltz's March Ban Seen as a Gift by PiS, Gdula Questions Her Anti-Fascist Stance During Civic Platform Rule, Stolica Newspaper on Barbarity Towards Lech Kaczyński's Monument

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PiS WOULD STILL HOLD A MAJORITY IN THE SENATE, PSL UP TO 4 SENATORS - ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULTS - 300RESEARCH: https://300polityka.pl/news/2018/11/08/300research-analiza-dr-pauli-kukulowicz-wynik-sejmikowy-dalby-pis-owi-nadal-wiekszosc-w-senacie-ale-nawet-4-senatorow-dla-psl/

-- HEAD OF YOUTUBE WITH POLISH CITIZENSHIP AT THE INVITATION OF PRIME MINISTER MORAWIECKI FOR THE 100TH ANNIVERSARY OF INDEPENDENCE CELEBRATIONS - NEWS 300: https://300polityka.pl/news/2018/11/08/news-300-susan-wojcicki-prezes-youtube-z-polskim-obywatelstwem-w-warszawie-z-okazji-100-lecia-odzyskania-niepodleglosci-spotka-sie-z-pmm/

-- DWORCZYK PRESENTS THE STRUCTURE OF THE MARCH - 300LIVE: Military vehicles will lead, followed by a ceremonial company, uniformed services, then veterans, scouts, and all Poles wishing to participate. https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/11/08/

-- PAWEŁ GAWLIK IN GAZETA STOŁECZNA ON THE BARBARITY TOWARDS LECH KACZYŃSKI'S MONUMENT: “If Civic Platform comes to power, the monument to Lech Kaczyński will be moved. Until now, only monuments to dictators in countries liberated from their yoke have met such a fate. This is barbarity. I regret that neither the still-serving mayor Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz nor her successor Rafał Trzaskowski have distanced themselves from this statement. Szostakowski has done the president-elect a disservice by negating his campaign statements. When asked about the potential relocation of Lech Kaczyński's monument, he replied that a discussion on this topic would only be possible 'when emotions subside' and after consultations with Warsaw residents. This means the topic is currently off the table and certainly will be for the foreseeable future.”

-- CIVIC PLATFORM MUST UNDERSTAND THIS IS A DEAD END - GAWLIK'S CONCLUSION: “I cannot accept building political capital by deepening divisions among Warsaw residents. Eight years have passed since the Smolensk catastrophe. We are tired of the conflict fueled by politicians from both sides playing with symbols. The ruling Civic Platform in Warsaw must understand that this is a dead end.” http://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,24140144,szostakowski-wyrzadzil-trzaskowskiemu-niedzwiedzia-przysluge.html

-- HGW'S DECISION RECEIVED AS A GIFT BY THE GOVERNMENT - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: “According to information from 'Wyborcza,' the organization of the presidential march was considered several days ago. Taking the initiative and giving the March the status of state ceremony was being considered. Suggestions that Andrzej Duda might opt for such a solution were conveyed to the organizers of the Independence March. A solution was being sought, and Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz's Wednesday decision to ban the march was received as a gift.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24140502,zakaz-marszu-niepodleglosci-w-rzadzie-odebrano-jako-prezent.html

-- ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON HGW'S UNCONVINCING EXPLANATION - in TP: “The problem is that this explanation is unconvincing. The most brutal and controversial events at the marches occurred during the Civic Platform's rule – for example, clashes with the police. Neither then nor later did Gronkiewicz consider preemptively blocking the annual march of nationalists.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/marsz-marsz-gronkiewicz-156258

-- PROF. MACIEJ GDULA - WHY DID GW NOT OUT ITSELF AS ANTI-FASCIST EARLIER, WHEN PO WAS IN POWER? - writes in Krytyka: “I don't want to fall into a score-settling mood, like 'where was HGW on 11.11.11 when we blocked the so-called Independence March,' but one cannot completely abstract from the timing, can one? The mayor had a long seven years to wake up and understand what kind of procession was taking place on the streets of the capital in November. Moreover, for four of those seven years, her colleagues from Civic Platform were in power, who had full control over the apparatus of coercion and considerable influence in the judiciary. Why didn't she then out herself as an anti-fascist and do everything to block the march? The answer to this question is very simple. Because then Civic Platform would have had to deal with managing the situation. And today? Today, of course, Law and Justice has to do it. Banning the March is a cynical ploy to put the government in a difficult position. HGW and the rest of PO are not so foolish as to not understand how the ban will work. http://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/gdula-cyniczna-zagrywka-hgw/

-- PROF. DUDEK IN INTERIA ON HGW BEING RESPONSIBLE FOR RIOTS: “This decision will cause social conflict. Even if the court upholds the ban on organizing the march, participants will still come to Warsaw – as they do every year. This is easy to predict. If riots occur in the city center, Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz will be responsible. At several previous marches, scandalous slogans were chanted, but they proceeded relatively calmly. And now... this decision could lead to disturbances that will completely overshadow the significance of the centenary of regaining independence.” https://fakty.interia.pl/autor/krystyna-opozda/news-prof-dudek-decyzja-gronkiewicz-waltz-wywola-konflikt-spolecz,nId,2655130

-- JAKUB MAJMUREK: WHY DID THEY NOT MAKE SUCH DECISIONS EARLIER AND ALLOW THE FAR-RIGHT TO GROW IN STRENGTH? “One can only ask why they didn't make them earlier? Why did they allow the far-right to grow so strong? It was already known in 2011, 12, 13 what the Independence March was about. That's when the TVN broadcast van was set on fire and a guard booth near the Russian embassy was burned. That's when the rainbow was set on fire and paving stones were thrown at the police. If the city hall had banned the march a year later, after the big disturbance of 2011, we would be in a completely different place today. Over these seven years, the so-called Independence March has become embedded in the Polish political landscape, poisoned it with its ideas, and legitimized itself.” https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/marsz-niepodleglosci-odwolany-majmurek-uzasadniona-decyzja-dwuglos/gwfhz6k

-- EWA SIEDLECKA: RESOLVE, DON'T BAN - writes in Polityka: “The law should be equal for everyone, and the freedom of assembly cannot be restricted by invoking the potential threat of lawbreaking. If we cannot presume lawbreaking by Wolny Kaukaz or the Equality Parade and on that basis deny the freedom of assembly – then the same standard should be applied to the Independence March. Regardless of how much disgust or outrage the organizers' views evoke in us. If we consider someone's views outrageous or dangerous – we can express it through a counter-demonstration. And if, as in the case of cyclical gatherings, such as the Warsaw Independence March, PiS has forbidden us to do so by law – we can protest anyway as part of civil disobedience. In a pluralistic society, we should debate, not ban.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1770728,1,rozwiazywac-nie-zakazywac.read

-- WOJCIECH MAZIARSKI IN GW, SIMILARLY TO SIEDLECKA: “However, a ban on organizing demonstrations, which formally proceed under patriotic slogans rather than racist ones, even if we have justified conviction that they will provide an opportunity for further crimes, cannot be a remedy. Specific criminals must be punished, not all people wanting to participate in demonstrations. A demonstration can also be dispersed, but only after its participants have committed a crime, not preemptively.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24139418,prewencyjny-zakaz-marszu-niepodleglosci-niczego-nie-rozwiazuje.html

-- HGW THOUGHT SHE WAS MAKING A CLEVER CHESS MOVE, BUT SHE WAS THE ONE CHECKMATED - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “One could say that this is the most important conclusion of the opposition from the local government elections: more of the same. Even harsher. Even stronger. In such a way as to tire Poles, to create the dominant impression that terrible things are happening that can no longer be endured. And as a result, one must vote for those who guarantee boring, actually monopolistic peace. But such gambits are risky, because they can be met with an even more intelligent, deadly counter-move. This is the nature of the president's and government's decision to take the Independence March under their patronage, and even into a kind of 'captivity.' Because this is both a check and a mate. The authorities of Warsaw can no longer ban this march, under any pretext, with a different status. This march will certainly take place, regardless of the moods of this or that court. This march will be much easier to control.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/420154-hgw-myslala-ze-bystrze-szachuje-ale-to-ona-dostala-mata

-- THE PRESIDENT IS JOINING THE MARCH - GW's front page.

-- THE PRESIDENT IS TAKING OVER THE MARCH - RZ's front page.

-- ANDRZEJ DUDA NATIONALIZES THE MARCH - Paweł Wroński in GW: “No clear declaration was made, but I understand that President Duda and Prime Minister Morawiecki will march on November 11th. I admit, I am not interested in the nationalists' dilemmas. They may feel frustrated that after the ban imposed by the Mayor of Warsaw, President Duda 'nationalized' their celebration. Whether they will behave properly will depend solely on the police, for whom the Prime Minister takes responsibility on November 11th.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24140575,andrzej-duda-nacjonalizuje-marsz.html

-- A CHANCE TO WREST THE MARCH FROM CONTROVERSIAL ORGANIZERS - Tomasz Pietryga in RZ: “Today's commotion could have a positive effect. The president's initiative – taking the march under his patronage – offers a chance to wrest it from the hands of controversial organizers.” https://www.rp.pl/Opinie/311079914-Igranie-z-emocjami-Polakow---komentuje-Tomasz-Pietryga.html

-- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON PiS'S MISTAKES IN ORGANIZING THE CELEBRATION - writes in RZ: “The problem is that no one from the PiS camp previously thought that there must be a culminating event in the celebrations of the 100th anniversary of regaining independence. And such an event could not be organized. The problem is that neither the presidential office nor the government had previously prepared something that would be a solemn conclusion to the celebrations, something that would strengthen Poles' pride. The concert at the National Stadium with Maryla Rodowicz is a great addition, but it is not suitable as a culminating event.” https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/311079911-Szuldrzynski-Mialo-byc-wielkie-swieto-skonczylo-sie-jak-zwykle.html&template=restricted

-- PIOTR IKONOWICZ PRAISES THE HOLIDAY OF NOVEMBER 12TH - in RZ: “The only undeniable success of the authorities related to the 100th anniversary of regaining independence is the introduction of an additional day off work.” https://www.rp.pl/Publicystyka/311079921-Piotr-Ikonowicz-Maszeruja-glupcy-maszeruja.html&template=restricted

-- DR JAROSŁAW FLIS: IN LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, PiS WILL HAVE LESS REAL POWER THAN CIVIC PLATFORM IN 2010 - tells Agnieszka Kublik in GW: “The party leader emphasizes that this is the party's best result in regional assemblies since the AWS era. But I recall that Civic Platform in 2010 received 31% of the vote, slightly less than Kaczyński's party now, but these 31% of the vote translated into 12 regional marshals and 50 positions on executive boards. And PiS's 34% is currently expected to translate into six marshals and just over thirty executive board members. So, although PiS received 3 percentage points more than Civic Platform, in the end, real power is what matters. PiS has less of it now than Civic Platform did in 2010 or 2014.”

-- THE CONFLICT IN LOCAL GOVERNMENTS IS NOW BALANCED - FLIS continues: “PiS speaks of success, and I somewhat understand it, because if someone had nothing and gained a little, they have more and have something to be happy about. However, it is not a controlling stake. Undoubtedly, PiS was extremely weak in the regional assemblies, and now there is a balanced duel between two camps. The distribution of seats, weighted by the size of the voivodeship, looks like this: PiS has 47% of them, and Civic Coalition and PSL have 48%. The remaining 5% are in the hands of the Democratic Left Alliance, the German minority, and non-partisan local government officials.”

-- FLIS TELLS AN ANECDOTE: “I respond to this with an anecdote I heard from a dentist acquaintance. She has a whole wall in her office with children's drawings. When a woman from the tax office visited, she asked: 'Do you specialize in children?' 'No, adults don't leave drawings!' And it's the same with these unengaged voters. They don't 'leave drawings' online, unlike those from PiS and anti-PiS. They only leave a drawing in elections. And in these elections, they voted against PiS for local leaders.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24140555,pis-slabszy-niz-mysli-dr-jaroslaw-flis-analizuje-dla-wyborczej.html

-- HARDLINE PiS IS A RECIPE FOR DEFEAT, NO ONE WILL BELIEVE IN A SOFT PiS ANYMORE - MACIEJ GDULA in Polityka: “Being a hardline PiS is a recipe for defeat. And no one will believe in a soft PiS anymore. Today, PiS is simply PiS. A ruling party eager to seize as much power as possible. Centrist voters know that PiS does not tolerate pluralism in the state, subordinates institutions one by one, and arranges them according to its own design. Previously, PiS's extreme language might have been seen as the tone of the entire discourse, today it is simply their ordinary language, which dominates public media. The maneuver from 2015, where for the center there was Duda and Szydło, and for the hard electorate, Macierewicz, will not work. Proof of this is Jaki's defeat. When he was soft and made overtures to the center, no one trusted him. When he played hard, people moved away from him.”

-- GDULA REPEATS THE THESIS OF PiS'S NARROW CORRIDOR: “Kaczyński is entering a narrower and narrower corridor, where he has less and less room to maneuver. Being a hardline PiS is a recipe for defeat. And no one will believe in a soft PiS anymore.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1770724,1,dlaczego-kolejnych-wyborow-pis-tak-latwo-nie-wygra.read?src=mt

-- ADAMCZYK AS MARSHAL OF MAŁOPOLSKA? - as Bartłomiej Kuraś writes in the Krakow GW: “Kaczyński has no interest in strongly supporting Beata Szydło's people, whom he removed from the prime minister's post. And Bochenek is currently among the former prime minister's closest associates. We are recently hearing from the party headquarters that an idea has emerged for the current infrastructure minister, Andrzej Adamczyk, to take this position. There have been speculations for a long time about his departure from the government. If that were to actually happen, he could become marshal. But for now, no final decision has been made in this matter. I think something more concrete will be known after the long November weekend – adds our informant.” http://krakow.wyborcza.pl/krakow/7,44425,24140462,rafal-bochenek-czy-moze-andrzej-adamczyk-kto-zostanie-marszalkiem.html

-- MAJCHROWSKI NAMES DEPUTIES - Dziennik Polski front page: “There will be more personnel changes in the mayor's entourage. In addition to Tadeusz Trzmiel, Katarzyna Król, vice-president for education and sport, will likely also leave her position. Vice-president Andrzej Kulig is reportedly now to focus on urban infrastructure, and his responsibilities in social policy would be taken over by Bogusław Kośmider from Civic Platform. Jerzy Muzyk, deputy mayor for city development, will most likely remain in his position.” https://dziennikpolski24.pl/krakow-powyborcze-roszady-prof-jacek-majchrowski-wymienia-zastepcow/ar/13649301

-- BIRTHDAYS: Leonard Krasulski, Andrzej Czerwiński.


Łukasz Mężyk