state of play: 10/18/2018

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Kublik: PGNiG to buy gas from the US cheaper than from Russia. A breakthrough contract; Szułdrzyński: Ziobro is fighting for the title of most anti-European politician on the right; PiS politician in Gazeta Wyborcza: This is a mine

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PRIME MINISTER FOR 300POLITYKA AND WP ON POLEXIT: These are some delusions of the Civic Platform and the opposition. After the campaign, some will sober up and we will start a normal dialogue.
https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/10/18/pmm-dla-300-i-wp-o-polexicie-to-sa-jakies-omamy-platformy-i-opozycji-po-kampanii-niektorzy-otrzezwieja-i-rozpoczniemy-normalny-dialog/

-- MOBILIZING SPOT BY PIS AND NEGATIVE SPOT BY PO COMPARED - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/10/18

-- WE HAVE GAS FROM THE USA CHEAPER THAN FROM RUSSIA - Andrzej Kublik in Gazeta Wyborcza: “PGNiG indicated that the agreements with Venture Global LNG companies are the first long-term contracts in Central Europe for the purchase of American liquefied natural gas (LNG). During a ceremony at the PGNiG headquarters, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki recalled that last year Poland was the first in Central Europe to also bring a ship with American LNG to the gas terminal in Świnoujście.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,155287,24053703,pgnig-kupuje-gaz-z-usa-taniej-niz-z-rosji-przelomowy-kontrakt.html

-- ADAM SZOSTKIEWICZ, AUTHOR FOR POLITYKA, WHO POSTS COVERS WITH APPEALS TO PO POLITICIANS, SUGGESTS THAT KACZYŃSKI'S APPEARANCE MAKES POLSAT "PIS-LIKE": “In this situation, the PiS propaganda chiefs advised a rescue interview on a private television channel, rather than on an overt party mouthpiece, which the formerly public media have become. Incidentally, Polsat scored points with the electorate of the 'United Right' and reinforced the impression outside of it that it is joining the 'good change'. Apart from this electorate, it does not bring much glory to the station.”
https://szostkiewicz.blog.polityka.pl/2018/10/17/kaczynski-murem-za-morawieckim/

-- FAKT ON NERVOUSNESS AND MOBILIZATION IN PIS: “Internal polls commissioned at the end of the local government campaign are probably the most closely guarded secrets of the campaign headquarters. From the reactions to them, one can infer that there is a state of particular nervousness in PiS. From conversations with PiS politicians, it is difficult to draw a clear conclusion whether this is due to fears of weak polls, or perhaps not much is missing for an even greater success.”
https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/wybory-samorzadowe-nerwowa-sytuacja-w-pis-panika-czy-mobilizacja/24h39e3

-- WOJCIECH MUCHA STRONGLY CRITICIZES THE PIS SPOT: “I have lost respect for Orban, I don't want to lose it for you. People, let's not go this way, because it's a dead end, and I'm not going there. Serious matters are not discussed like this. This is how you burn a topic and come across as idiots, unworthy of a shrug. As freaks. And you don't cultivate such emotions, because they end badly.”
https://www.facebook.com/1034630798/posts/10215708302913969/

-- PIOTR PACEWICZ ON THE XENOPHOBIC SPOT WHERE NOTHING ADDS UP: “In the xenophobic election clip by PiS, nothing adds up. Even the Muslim refugee kicking a woman turns out to be a drunk Bulgarian employed in Berlin. The declaration by PO local government officials about bringing hordes of illegal immigrants is a balanced document by the Union of Metropolises, signed by, among others, Mayor Krupa, supported by PiS. You also need to know how to scare people.”

-- THE SPOT SOWS FEAR AND IS POOR-QUALITY PROPAGANDA - PACEWICZ CONTINUES: “Apart from sowing fear and hatred towards foreigners, the spot is based on falsehoods, and the quality of this propaganda is poor. Even on PiS websites, there are comments that the clip expresses desperation in the face of weak poll results in presidential elections and is an 'attempt to shift the tribal war to the local level'. Perhaps PiS is also protecting itself against pre-election criticism from nationalist circles.”
https://oko.press/zalosny-klip-wyborczy-pis-nie-islamski-uchodzca-lecz-bulgar-nie-po-lecz-unia-metropolii-i-nie-te-wybory/

-- "I AM AN ABSOLUTE SUPPORTER OF 500+" - says Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz in an interview with wPolsce.pl: “I am an absolute supporter of the 500+ program. I believe it brings good results and has changed Polish politics. It has placed the issue of redistribution at the center of Polish politics.”

-- SIENKIEWICZ, IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MARCIN FIJOŁEK, CLAIMS THAT SINCE 2015, THE RIGHT HAS GAINED A SOLID PLACE ON THE POLITICAL MAP OF POLAND THROUGH SOCIAL ROOTING: “Settling scores about who did what to whom earlier is a misunderstanding. However we look at it, since 2015, the right has gained a solid place on the political map of Poland not through its own rule (...) but through social rooting. There is a certain social emotion behind them, which cannot be ignored. I may not like Kaczyński, but I cannot dislike the people who vote for him. They are citizens, Poles, just like me.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/417097-sienkiewicz-dla-wpolscepl-jestem-zwolennikiem-500

-- NEW JUSTICES DO NOT RULE IN THE SUPREME COURT - lead story in Dziennik Gazeta Prawna: “The newly appointed judges are not issuing rulings because they could be challenged. Dariusz Zawistowski, acting First President of the Supreme Court and President of the Civil Chamber of this court, is currently not assigning new Supreme Court judges to ruling panels. He himself does not question the president's authority to nominate them, but has concerns about whether they should rule. (...) – It cannot be ruled out that there will be some requests from parties challenging the hearing of these cases. Moreover, if rulings are issued, and later the CJEU makes a statement on the procedure for appointing these individuals as Supreme Court judges and determines that it was flawed, the consequences will be very difficult to predict – emphasizes Zawistowski in an interview with Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.”
http://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/583395,reforma-sadownictwa-sad-najwyzszy-dariusz-zawistowski-rozmowa.html

-- ZIOBRO HAS UNDERMINED THE GOOD CHANGE - lead story in Gazeta Wyborcza.

-- "THIS IS PLAYING FOR OUR WORST ELECTION RESULT" - write Agata Kondzińska and Łukasz Woźnicki in Gazeta Wyborcza: “The issue of Polexit is returning because Zbigniew Ziobro wants the Constitutional Tribunal to challenge one of the provisions of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU. – This is playing for our worst election result – believes one of the advisors to the PiS leader. – Ziobro has stood against the Prime Minister and personally dealt him a blow at the end of the campaign, whose face is Mateusz Morawiecki. These are always the most important days, when there is no room for uncontrolled messaging. Emotions are already so stirred up that it is impossible to control them. And we don't need a discussion about Polexit – says an advisor to Jarosław Kaczyński.”

-- GAZETA WYBORCZA ON PMM POTENTIALLY USING ZIOBRO'S ACTION FOR A FINAL SHOWDOWN: “In PiS, there are speculations that the Prime Minister may use the motion to the Constitutional Tribunal for a final showdown with Ziobro after the local government elections, if the party achieves a poor result in them. One idea is to send Ziobro to the European Parliament in the spring of 2019.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24057182,w-pis-wsciekli-na-ziobre-za-wniosek-do-tk-to-gra-na-jak-najgorszy.html

-- ZIOBRO HAS GROWN TIRED OF THE EU - PAWEŁ WROŃSKIKI IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “Zbigniew Ziobro is making his political gesture in a specific political situation. The democratic opposition believes that all actions of the PiS government are leading directly to Poland's withdrawal from the European Union. The government claims this is untrue. Minister Ziobro – whether out of overzealousness in fighting the imagined 'caste,' or out of simple political stupidity – fully confirms these fears.”

-- WROŃSKI ON ZIOBRO LEADING THE GOVERNMENT INTO A MINEFIELD: “I return to the self-preservation instinct of leader Jarosław Kaczyński and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. Once again, Ziobro is leading the PiS government into a minefield, while simultaneously reducing PiS's election chances because it fuels the opposition. I wouldn't worry about the latter, but incidentally, there is a serious danger that Ziobro, with another incompetent action, which the Prime Minister does not control, will not only harm PiS, but also actually lead us out of the European Union.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24053951,ziobro-strzela-kaczynskiemu-w-kolano-glupota-czy-sabotaz.html

-- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON THE UNAMBIGUOUS MEANING OF ZIOBRO'S GESTURE - he writes in Rzeczpospolita: “Therefore, indirectly, it is a loophole leading to Polexit. Such an experienced politician as Zbigniew Ziobro should be aware that – despite hiding behind legal formulas – the meaning of his gesture is quite unambiguous. And it will certainly be received as such by our partners in the EU.”

-- SZUŁDRZYŃSKI WRITES THAT ZIOBRO IS FIGHTING FOR THE TITLE OF THE MOST ANTI-EUROPEAN POLITICIAN ON THE RIGHT: “He is sending an important signal to the electorate, to other parts of the right-wing camp, but also to our European partners. Shortly before the local government elections (the letter is dated October 4, but the public learned of it on the 16th), Ziobro is fighting for the title of the most anti-European politician on the right.”
https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/310179925-Szuldrzynski-Prawna-furtka-do-polexitu.html

-- EWA SIEDLECKA ON POLEXIT: “For now, referring the motion to the Constitutional Tribunal is just flexing muscles, intended to deter judges from asking questions and the CJEU from ruling on their cases. It is foolish and ineffective, because the CJEU is not bound by the rulings of the Polish Tribunal. But when PiS 'activates' this matter, i.e., issues an order for the Tribunal to rule – it will mean the Polish government's renunciation of obedience to EU law. PiS is trying to accuse Donald Tusk of 'diplomatic treason' for agreeing that the Smoleńsk disaster should be investigated according to the annex to the Chicago Convention, which was supposed to hinder its explanation, and thus was an action detrimental to Poland's interests. What, then, should be called the government's actual withdrawal of Poland from the European Union by PiS?”
https://siedlecka.blog.polityka.pl/2018/10/17/polexit/

-- "PLASTIC CAMPAIGN FAR FROM THE PEOPLE" - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “In short – a plastic candidate, full direction. It was supposed to be Trzaskowski on a mobile bench, but only an empty bench remained. There is a strong impression that the candidate, whose real activity was marked by gaffes, who turned a simple visit to a voter's home (and that voter turned out to be a KOD activist) into a nationwide story of trying to fix a window with adhesive tape, has been as if surrounded by a glass pane, cut off by a plastic PR cordon from… voters. It must be admitted that this is an achievement unknown in the democratic world, possible only in countries where one side has full control over the media and the ability to arbitrarily apply political technology. Or perhaps it is like that here, in Warsaw at least, right now?”

-- KARNOWSKI ON TRZASKOWSKI FLEEING FROM PEOPLE: “However, the matter has a very serious dimension. If a candidate today must base his campaign plan on fleeing from real, free meetings with real residents, if he lacks the courage to truly get to know the city he is to lead, if he does not find himself in this city, despite favorable polls, what kind of president will he be? Will he be able to manage, oversee, supervise, and impose a vision? Or will we find out in a few years that, unfortunately, Platforma apologizes, but this mafia that robbed the city of billions was acting without their knowledge? That maybe more metros are built in Sofia, but they can't be built here? That these rats must run in packs around Miasteczko Wilanów?”
https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/417095-gdzie-jest-trzaskowski-dziwna-kampania-z-dala-od-ludzi

-- "I AM READY TO COOPERATE WITH THE PIS GOVERNMENT FOR THE GOOD OF WARSAW" - says Rafał Trzaskowski in an interview with Interia: “I am ready to cooperate with the PiS government for the good of Warsaw. I hope only for a year.”

-- "I AM A 100% INDEPENDENT POLITICIAN, I FEAR NO ONE" - Trzaskowski continues: “I am a one hundred percent independent politician. Although politics is also a team game. Believe me, I fear no one and bow to no one. Schetyna treats all important politicians as partners, and that's why I respect him. We communicate completely openly. That's why we are sometimes not as effective as PiS, because there they have an army that doesn't ask questions and marches until Jarosław Kaczyński is weak, and then they all fall on each other's throats. If someone asks me if I will cooperate with Marcin Kierwiński - of course, he is the head of the Warsaw structures of my party. However, I will make all the most important decisions in the city hall independently. I am going to the city hall to change Warsaw, not to hold a prestigious office. I want to change my city. I am task-oriented. I went into politics to do concrete work, not to bicker with PiS.”

-- "IF THE CIVIC COALITION LOSES THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT ELECTIONS, IT WILL BE MUCH HARDER TO WIN SUBSEQUENT ELECTIONS" - Trzaskowski further: “If the Civic Coalition loses the local government elections, it will be much harder to win subsequent elections. Warsaw is a symbolic battleground. If we win in most regions and lose Warsaw, it will be difficult to present it as a success. If we win in Warsaw and other large cities and win in at least half of the regions, it will undoubtedly be a success. There is certainly a burden on my shoulders, but it only motivates me to work even harder in the final stretch.” https://fakty.interia.pl/autor/jolanta-kaminska-aleksandra-gieracka/news-trzaskowski-nikogo-sie-nie-boje-i-przed-nikim-sie-nie-klania,nId,2645449

-- ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA ON THE TEST OF ZDANOWSKA - she writes in Rzeczpospolita: “And will there be such resistance? This is precisely what PiS is testing, threatening to revoke Zdanowska's mandate. Will ordinary citizens take to the streets in defense of the mayor? And if so, how many will there be? How much further can the string be stretched, which is already very taut? Łódź was well-chosen as a proving ground. In Warsaw, demonstrations are organized instantly and immediately have a national dimension. What would the case of a commissioner in one of the cities mean for the country? Would anyone 'want to die for Łódź'? This is precisely what the ruling party wants to find out.”
https://www.rp.pl/Wybory-samorzadowe/310179901-Dabrowska-Sprawa-Zdanowskiej-czyli-lodzki-poligon.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Andżelika Borys, Zdzisław Podkański, Maciej Jankiewicz, Lech Dymarski, Łukasz Abgarowicz.


Łukasz Mężyk