state of play: 09/26/2018

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: GW: 78% of Civic Coalition voters support legal abortion, Mr. Grzegorz, will you dare? RZ on the costs of hard Brexit for Poland and Tusk's risk

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PHOTO OF THE DAY. Photo: Jakub Szymczuk/ KPRP.

-- MEETING OF CANDIDATES ON DEBATES, TRZASKOWSKI WITH NOWACKA, JAKI PLANTS TREES - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/09/26

-- ONLY IRELAND WILL PAY MORE THAN US FOR HARD BREXIT - RZ FRONT PAGE: "Among the United Kingdom's EU partners, only Ireland would lose more from this than Poland," says Andrew Goodwin, author of the report, to "Rzeczpospolita". "By the end of 2020 alone, Poland's GDP would be reduced by about 0.8%," he adds. This would amount to approximately PLN 18 billion (over EUR 4 billion) – nearly half of the structural funds we receive annually from the Union." https://www.rp.pl/Biznes/309259912-Twardy-brexit-najbardziej-uderzy-w-Irlandie-i-Polske.html

-- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ ON TUSK'S RISKY BREXIT GAMBLE - HISTORY MAY JUDGE HIM AS THE ONE WHO LED THE UNION INTO CRISIS: "If Tusk's gambit leads to a compromise, then the former Polish prime minister will go down in history as the one who led the Union out of a major crisis. However, if it fails – and today much indicates that this might happen – history will judge him as the one who plunged the Union into another crisis." https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/309259922-Szuldrzynski-Koszty-brexitu-i-wina-Tuska.html

-- TIMMERMANS IS LOOKING FOR ANOTHER GRILL FOR POLAND BECAUSE HE WOULD LOSE THE VOTE - JACEK SARYUSZ-WOLSKI IN TYSOL: "The CJEU replied that in such a situation, the courts of EU member states must rely on their own assessment, because this matter concerns Article 2 of the Treaty, regarding the rule of law, where the Article 7 procedure is appropriate, not a ruling by the CJEU. In other words: the European Court of Justice itself has declared itself incompetent in this matter. However, fearing a vote in the Council, which would obviously and unavoidably go in Poland's favor, Commissioner Timmermans is looking for another grill to harass Poland with."

-- THE COURT WOULD HAVE TO RULE VIOLATING THE IDEA AND SPIRIT OF THE TREATY - SARYUSZ-WOLSKI CONTINUES: "In a similar case, when Hungary was accused, and the matter concerned the Supreme Court and the retirement age of judges, a workaround had to be used: namely, Hungary was accused of discriminating against judges based on age. This is similar to the case of the Polish law on common courts. Having nothing to latch onto, an argument about gender discrimination was used, i.e., the difference in retirement age for women and men. This is a gesture of despair; the European Court of Justice would have to rule, violating the idea and spirit of the treaty, to rule against Poland in this matter."

-- IN GERMANY, THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT WOULD OVERTURN THE CJEU RULING - SARYUSZ CONTINUES: "This would be a violation of the EU's fundamental principles. Then anything could happen. In Germany, in such a case, the Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe would probably overturn such a CJEU ruling as contrary to the German Constitution." http://www.tysol.pl/a24162--Tylko-u-nas-J-Saryusz-Wolski-Timmermans-obawia-sie-glosowania-w-Radzie-i-szuka-innego-grilla-na-Polske

-- WHOEVER SUPPORTS LEGAL ABORTION WILL WIN THE ELECTION - Krzysztof Pacewicz, Paulina Milewska in GW: "As many as 45% of Polish women and men support legal abortion on demand, and 43% are against – shows a "Wysokie Obcasy" poll. Supporters of the right to abortion are today the most important electorate not yet courted by parliamentary forces. Contrary to what Grzegorz Schetyna might think, almost all supporters of opposition parties (Civic Coalition, Left, PSL, Biedroń's Party, Razem) support the right to abortion on demand up to the 12th week of pregnancy (77% in favor, 16% against)."

-- ALMOST ALL OPPOSITION VOTERS SUPPORT ABORTION ACCESSIBILITY: "Civic Coalition voters are 78% in favor of legal abortion, and even those voting for the PSL are 59% in favor! Yes, we are talking about the same parties whose leaders officially advocate for maintaining the current, extremely restrictive anti-abortion law, which can only be called a "compromise" by women's enemies. What's more: Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz voted in 2016 – against his electorate – for the Ordo Iuris project banning abortion entirely (the "Stop Abortion" project was ultimately rejected in committee as a result of huge protests)."

-- MR. GRZEGORZ, WILL YOU DARE? - ask the authors of GW: "The organizers want the procedure to be not only legal but also safe, free, and available on demand for women at all times. Given the results of our poll, all leading politicians from opposition parties should appear at the March. Mr. Grzegorz, will you dare?" http://www.wysokieobcasy.pl/wysokie-obcasy/7,163229,23967156,za-aborcja-na-zadanie-45-proc-przeciw-43-proc-elektorat.html

-- IN THE GW SURVEY, A SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER PART OF RESPONDENTS WANT RELIGION TO REMAIN IN SCHOOLS, BUT THE YOUNGEST DO NOT WANT IT: "39% of Poles would like to cease religious education in schools. More people (49%) want religious education to remain as it is now. (...) As many as 61% of students aged 15-19 are against religion in schools! They probably need to talk to their parents, who have a different opinion on this matter: 52% of people aged 35 to 54 are in favor of keeping it within school walls." http://wyborcza.pl/7,162657,23966579,wiekszosc-polakow-chce-religii-w-szkolach-jest-jednak-ale.html

-- MARCIN FIJOŁEK WRITES ABOUT SUPPORT FOR RURAL WOMEN'S GROUPS AGAINST THE FEMINIST DEMANDS OF THE ELITES: "The Women's Congress did not come up with such an initiative because, simply put – on the level of instincts, reflexes, and reactions developed over years – feminist, extremely left-wing circles disdain such a Poland. I recently listened carefully to a press conference prepared in front of the Sejm by Katarzyna Lubnauer and Barbara Nowacka. There were many words about how "women will overthrow the government," even more demands concerning "reproductive rights" and funding for in vitro fertilization. And all this is happening during the local election campaign. Neither Magdalena Środa, nor Agnieszka Holland, nor any of the political leaders would think of making a big gesture towards Polish women involved in Rural Women's Circles, local folk ensembles, or simply in family life. Even if Paweł Pawlikowski presented such an idea on a silver platter." https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/413797-o-procesie-czyszczenia-feministycznego-przedpola-dla-pis

-- JOANNA LICHOCKA IN NIEZALEŻNA ON ACTA2: "This will also apply to YouTubers – in addition to paying a license for linking, they will also have to purchase a license that allows them to create content for the internet. Paranoia? Indeed – in the interest of copyright and the protection of creators' rights, the European Parliament has opted for a drastic restriction of freedom of speech and creation online. This makes sense in terms of protecting the status quo – the directive protects the big players and significantly limits new, small ones. After ACTA 2 comes into effect, the internet as we know it today will disappear. This is what the PO politicians, who fear freedom of speech, independent debate, and the resulting great change in Polish political attitudes that will finally sweep the POst-communist era from the political stage, have opted for. They are seriously afraid of this – and rightly so." http://niezalezna.pl/237719-postkomuna-walczy-z-internetem

-- DR JAROSŁAW FLIS ON THE PROBABILITY THAT PO WILL RETAIN ITS URBAN STRONGHOLDS: "It can be expected that they will be below 40%. This does not allow for a win in the first round, and in the second round, it was usually the case that everyone else was against PiS, even in towns like Nowy Sącz. Previously, the fight there was decided by fractions of a percent of votes. It is difficult to expect it to be different now." https://fakty.interia.pl/raporty/raport-wybory-samorzadowe-2018/interia-o-wyborach/news-flis-urzedujacy-prezydenci-sa-zawsze-faworytami,nId,2636015

-- HEAD OF THE NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION ON ANNOUNCING RESULTS 2 DAYS AFTER THE ELECTION - tells Interia: "Before the changes to the electoral law, we planned to announce the consolidated results the next day. Now we believe that this will not be possible on Monday. Most likely, we will do it on the second day after the vote – i.e., on Tuesday. But it is difficult to say definitively, perhaps another day will be needed."

-- HERMELIŃSKI HOPES FOR A SINGLE-DIGIT PERCENTAGE OF INVALID VOTES: "I hope that the percentage of invalid votes will be single-digit. Unfortunately, I still hear that voters don't know how to vote, and yet it seems simple." https://fakty.interia.pl/autor/jolanta-kaminska-aleksandra-gieracka/news-hermelinski-mam-nadzieje-ze-wyborcy-nie-beda-okupowac-pkw,nId,2634814

-- PIS WILL CLOSE MINK FARMS, BUT ONLY AFTER THE ELECTION - Wiktor Ferfecki in RZ: "We are postponing this amendment to avoid controversial topics during the election marathon," a source unofficially tells "Rzeczpospolita". According to him, the party will return to the issue after winning the Sejm elections. He adds that the amendment "should include a ban on fur farming, as well as a ban on ritual slaughter, except for the needs of members of religious communities themselves." https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/309259924-PiS-zamknie-fermy-norek-ale-dopiero-po-wyborach.html

-- GW ON THE PRIME MINISTER'S SISTER RUNNING FOR MAYOR OF OBORNIKI: "The Prime Minister's sister, Anna Morawiecka, wants to become the mayor of Oborniki Śląskie, which she promises to govern independently and "without cliques." The Ministry of Infrastructure has announced that it will allocate funds to the commune for a new bridge. A pro-PiS starost gave her foundation money for a picnic, without a tender." http://wroclaw.wyborcza.pl/wroclaw/7,35771,23967769,morawiecka-idzie-po-wladze-siostra-premiera-chce-zostac-burmistrzem.html

-- SCHOOLS ARE BURSTING AT THE SEAMS AFTER THE REFORM - Justyna Suchecka in GW: "My school is bursting at the seams, some lessons are held in the building of a liquidated junior high school. The situation will stabilize in five years because we started admitting fewer children to the first grades," says the principal of a primary school in Krakow. He had a heated summer: "In July, I hired four new teachers, but when I returned from a short vacation, it turned out that none of them wanted to work in the school anymore. They all left education because they don't want to work in such chaos and for this money. I was looking for a math teacher until the last minute, I hired a pensioner because there were no other volunteers." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,23967850,szkoly-pekaja-w-szwach-brakuje-mlodych-nauczycieli-krajobraz.html

-- ALL GOVERNMENTS AFTER COMMUNISM ENDED IN SCANDALS - JAKI'S NEW SPOT: https://www.instagram.com/p/BoKazh8gjgj/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=y61qfbgqdcyh

-- PSL CANDIDATE IN WARSAW ATTACKS... TRZASKOWSKI IN A SPOT: https://300polityka.pl/news/2018/09/25/rafal-tasma-warszawy-nie-skleisz-wiem-jak-naprawic-warszawe-w-spocie-jakub-stefaniaka/

-- ELECTION SONG OF MIROSŁAWA STACHOWIAK-RÓŻECKA IN WROCŁAW: "The PiS candidate for mayor of Wrocław wrote the lyrics and composed the music for the song "Our City" herself. It is known that Wrocław artists helped her with the recording. (...) "And this hum, and this hum, and this hum, this is my city, this is my city" – sings Mirosława Stachowiak-Różecka, who rides a bicycle around Wrocław in the song's video, drinks coffee on the Oder boulevards, and meets with residents." https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/wybory-samorzadowe/kandydatka-pis-nagrala-piosenke-o-wroclawiu/ml0j45v

-- 27 YEARS AGO, the so-called Rokita Report, prepared by the Extraordinary Sejm Commission for Investigating the Activities of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, was presented to the Sejm.

-- 12 YEARS AGO, recordings of conversations between MP Renata Beger and MPs Adam Lipiński and Wojciech Mojzesowicz were revealed on the TVN program Teraz my!.

-- BIRTHDAYS: Petro Poroshenko, Barbara Toruńczyk, Adam Ozga, Krzysztof Michałkiewicz, Ewa Wieleżyńska.


Łukasz Mężyk