state of play: 08/02/2018

STATE OF PLAY: Petru and Bugaj Agree: Little Chance for Opposition Success, Stankiewicz Praises Morawiecki for Helping Insurgents, Olszewski: PiS Catastrophe Doesn't Mean Silence on Weak Opposition

Łukasz Mężyk

-- FIRST POLISH REPORT ON BIG DATA IN POLITICS: How do modern technologies win elections in the 21st century? 300POLITYKA is the first to publish the results of a report developed by Łukasz Dąbros, Mateusz Sabat, and Szymon Wcisło on big data in politics.
https://300polityka.pl/news/2018/08/02/jak-nowoczesne-technologie-wygrywaja-wybory-w-xxi-wieku-pierwszy-polski-raport-o-wplywie-big-data-na-polityke/

-- ECONOMY HELPS PUBLIC FINANCES - DGP.

-- INDUSTRIAL SLOWDOWN, BUT GDP GROWTH AT 5% - headline in GW.

-- MICHAŁ OLSZEWSKI FROM TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY ON WYBORCZA PL: DON'T BLACKMAIL ME WITH PiS: “Don't write critically about Rafał Trzaskowski, and God forbid, don't joke about his campaign gaffes, because it strengthens Patryk Jaki. Don't mention that Civic Platform is a calcified and burnt-out structure in many parts of the country, because as they are, worse will come after them.”

-- OLSZEWSKI DESCRIBES PSYCHOLOGICAL PRESSURE ON JOURNALISTS UNFAVORABLE TO PiS: “In recent months, the pressure on journalists from media critical of the government has reached an unprecedented level. Phones ring, inboxes swell: the opposition is resentful, the opposition is embittered, sometimes expressing it in more parliamentary language, sometimes less, resorting to blackmail ('I thought we were on the same side, Mr. Editor'). Loyal readers are also furious – some part of them expects a message other than criticism.”

-- THE CATASTROPHE OF PiS DOES NOT MEAN I SHOULD REMAIN SILENT WHEN I SEE THE PLATFORM'S INDIFFERENCE OR TRZASKOWSKI'S SLOW CAMPAIGN: “Yes, my country is in a catastrophic political situation. Yes, PiS has destroyed so much in the past three years that rebuilding will take a very long time. Yes, the fight for local governments, crucial for the country's fate, is beginning, and as a journalist, I am in a much worse position in this fight than Jacek Kurski or Michał Karnowski, because I am not allowed to engage in vulgar propaganda. However, none of this means I should remain silent when I see the Platform's indifference or Rafał Trzaskowski's sluggish campaign. Concern for Poland cannot lead to closing our eyes to the mistakes made by the opposition.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,23743998,nie-szantazujcie-mnie-pis-em-bilans-ofiar.html

-- PETRU ON WP: I FEAR THAT THE PO COALITION HAS LIMITED CHANCES OF WINNING THE ELECTION - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/08/02/

-- RYSZARD BUGAJ LIKE RYSZARD PETRU ON WP: THERE IS NO REASON TO CONSIDER PiS'S DEFEAT LIKELY - writes on RZ opinions: “The continuation of PiS rule must eventually lead to the erosion of stimulated hopes and social frustration. PiS replacing the promised reform with 'institutional violence' also brings political polarization. So far, the opposition has presented no alternative. Who can answer the questions: what taxes does it want; what does it intend to do with social security; what should the Constitutional Tribunal be like; should Poland join the Eurozone, etc. Voters are essentially receiving a signal: it will be as it was before. Some – relatively few – accept this signal with approval. The majority – judging by the poll results – probably not. There is no basis to consider PiS's electoral defeat likely.”

-- BUGAJ ON COURT PRACTICES AS FUEL FOR PiS: “The practices of some courts were scandalous – that happens. The problem is that it did not provoke opposition within the legal community. This must be remembered to understand why so many people today give PiS permission to break the law.”

-- BUGAJ ON THE PHENOMENON: “UNITED LIBERALS”: The contestation of the systemic order shaped after the democratic breakthrough by voters was already evident at the beginning of the 1990s. Its manifestation was primarily low turnout. The successes of anti-system groups – especially Samoobrona – brought disillusionment. Their influence on the executive branch proved destructive. At the same time, the actual consolidation of liberal circles of the former opposition with post-communists progressed. Although it did not take an organizational form, a group of leading SLD activists took prominent positions in PO. The "united liberals" dominated the political scene. As early as the 1990s, the saying appeared: no matter what we put in the ballot box, Balcerowicz will come out of it.”

-- BUGAJ SURPRISINGLY ON PARTNERSHIP ASSOCIATIONS: “It is also a fact that the subordination of national decisions to EU regulations has often been detrimental to Poland. It is highly controversial to consider the right to enter into same-sex marriages a 'human right.' And finally: the desire to preserve the state as a culturally cohesive community cannot be considered an uncivilized aspiration.”
http://archiwum.rp.pl/artykul/1382487-Nadzieje-upadna.html

-- MARTA LEMPART WILL RUN IN WROCŁAW: Marta Lempart will run for mayor of Wrocław. She announced this on TOK FM radio.
http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,23744315,wybory-samorzadowe-2018-liderka-strajku-kobiet-marta-lempart.html

-- IT'S GOOD THAT POLITICIANS SHUT THEIR MOUTHS - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ on Onet: “In previous years, the anniversaries of the Uprising were one of the hottest political periods. Lech Kaczyński and Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, among others, made sharp attacks on their competitors during this time. This year, Mateusz Morawiecki debuted as Prime Minister at the commemorations. As usual, he promised his listeners money. But in the case of the insurgents, he was entirely right. This year, PiS and Platform politicians did the minimum they should have for the Uprising – they didn't interfere with each other and didn't sling mud at each other from a distance.”
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/74-rocznica-powstania44-andrzej-stankiewicz-dobrze-ze-politycy-zamkneli-usta/es2sdmq

-- POLITICIANS INSTEAD OF INSURGENTS - writes Tomasz Urzykowski in Stołeczna: “During the commemorations of the anniversary of the outbreak of the Warsaw Uprising, one could get the impression that politicians were now the most important at the ceremony.”
http://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,23744185,politycy-zamiast-powstancow-na-cmentarzu-wojskowym.html

-- CZARZASTY SEES HIS ALLIANCE AS HUGE - Iwona Szpala in GW: “One of the SLD politicians envisions an election convention where Czarzasty's team takes the stage, and they are all stars. – MPs, distinguished and well-known people. It will be a fantastic image that all television stations will show. A strong entry into the campaign – he thinks.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,23743998,czarzasty-swoj-sojusz-widzi-ogromny-w-wyborach-samorzadowych.html

-- KUKIZ SEEKS VETO FOR THE ELECTORAL ORDINANCE - Paweł Wroński in GW: “– I wouldn't be surprised if President Andrzej Duda vetoes the ordinance for the European Parliament prepared by PiS – a politician close to the president tells us. Paweł Kukiz is strongly lobbying for this, as the new regulations practically take away his party's chance of winning a mandate.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,23743931,duda-gra-w-euroordynacje-czy-prezydent-zawetuje-zmienione-przez.html

-- BISHOPS NO LONGER LIKE PiS - TOMASZ KRZYŻAK in RZ: “Bishops no longer like Law and Justice. And they find it increasingly easy to criticize the actions of the ruling party. This thesis could be put forward by analyzing several statements or gestures (because they also say a lot) from hierarchs over the past year, which, to a greater or lesser extent, referred to Jarosław Kaczyński's party. And this is not about the statements of Bishop Tadeusz Pieronek, who, as a retiree not holding any position in the Polish Episcopate, sharply criticizes PiS. Increasingly, active hierarchs are finding words of strong, albeit subtle, disapproval.”

-- KRZYŻAK QUOTES CRITICISM FROM THE METROPOLITAN OF GLIWICE: “Finally, an interview with Bishop Jan Kopiec, ordinary of Gliwice, from a few days ago for KAI, in which the hierarch admitted that the Church's neglect is 'too much indulgence towards the process of 'party-fication' of the state by one option.' – This is a sin we are committing – he stated, adding that although the Church does not take sides with one party, 'some people from the Church do, who give the impression that they are speaking on its behalf.' – This should not be the case – he said.”
https://www.rp.pl/Rzad-PiS/308019931-Czy-biskupi-nie-lubia-juz-Prawa-i-Sprawiedliwosci.html

-- PATRYK JAKI - UNKNOWN HERO OF THE WARSAW UPRISING - Paweł Wroński in GW: “The misfortune for the PiS authorities and politicians like the candidate for the mayor of Warsaw is that there are still a few insurgents walking the earth, bearing witness to what is decent and what is a farce. Otherwise, the most important hero of the Warsaw Uprising would be Patryk Jaki, or perhaps Mike Tyson.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,23744035,patryk-jaki-nieznany-bohater-powstania-warszawskiego.html

-- MUSZYŃSKI WILL DISCIPLINE JUDGES - lead article in GW: “'Wyborcza' has obtained dozens of names of lawyers who have broken away from the resistance of the legal community and are running for the Supreme Court. Among the candidates for positions in the Supreme Court are prosecutors of the 'good change,' Waldemar Puławski and Jarosław Duś, and legal advisor Małgorzata Ułaszonek-Kubacka. Also included is Mariusz Muszyński, a substitute judge and vice-president of the Constitutional Tribunal.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,23743945,nie-tylko-muszynski-znamy-nazwiska-kilkudziesieciu-kandydatow.html

-- FAKT INTERPRETS THE DISMISSAL OF THE ENERGIA CEO AS MACIEREWICZ GETTING CLOSER TO KACZYŃSKI: “As PiS politicians tell us, he sometimes spends long hours at Nowogrodzka Street talking with the party leader. And Siwko's dismissal was supposed to be a confirmation of the leader's goodwill. – Macierewicz, with Kaczyński's blessing, settled this easily with the Minister of Energy Krzysztof Tchórzewski (68) – says our informant. He claims that Tchórzewski owed his colleague a 'favor.' What does the PiS leader gain from courting Macierewicz? According to our interlocutors, he is persuading him to run for the European Parliament in the spring. – The idea is not to have to hide anyone during the parliamentary campaign and to show that Macierewicz and many other 'used' activists are not running for the Sejm or Senate – says our interlocutor in PiS.”
https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/macierewicz-znow-zbliza-sie-do-prezesa-pis/d0zh555

-- ANNA DĄBROWSKA ON THE CONTROLLED DELAY IN REDUCING PARLIAMENTARIANS' REMUNERATION: “When PiS wants something, it can pass a bill through the Sejm in 48 hours (like recently). This is probably the ultimate proof that this 'modesty' was a 'for the public' move intended to save poll numbers that were falling due to ministerial bonuses. Secondly, it is up to PiS, specifically the Prime Minister, when a law is published in the Journal of Laws (which he should do immediately after the President's signature) and from when it is effective. Ultimately, the law was published on July 9, so the Chancellors of the Sejm and Senate would have had enough time to calculate how much to reduce each parliamentarian's payment by. If it weren't for this seemingly minor amendment, the 'modesty' would have been in effect since August, and 1.064 million PLN would have remained in the budget.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1757488,1,co-z-obnizka-uposazen-parlamentarzystow-dopiero-od-wrzesnia.read

-- LESZEK KOSTRZEWSKI ON 500+ - writes in GW: “I don't really understand what there is to brag about here. If the government gives money, people take it. Simple. Unless the deputy minister thinks that if they didn't take the money, it would mean they don't support the government. And since they take it, they support it. However, I warn that if the next GUS data show that the birth rate is falling, then the applications for 'Good Start' may also decrease in the end. So, just in case, the deputy minister should already be looking for other data in the statistics to brag about.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,155290,23743573,wiceminister-pracy-przez-rok-chwalil-sie-danymi-o-liczbie-urodzen.html

-- IN A SIMILAR VEIN, RYSZARD PETRU WROTE ABOUT 500+ A FEW DAYS AGO IN A TEXT FOR 300POLITYKI: There were supposed to be more births – and there are fewer. This is the truth about the demographic effects of the 500+ program.
https://300polityka.pl/stan-gry/2018/07/27/ryszard-petru-dla-300polityki-mialo-byc-wiecej-urodzen-a-jest-mniej-taka-jest-prawda-o-efektach-programu-500-w-zakresie-demografii/

-- THE PLAN FOR RURAL AREAS IS WEAK, BUT BETTER THAN NOTHING - Krystyna Naszkowska in GW: “In fact, it's not a plan at all. Rather, a few empty declarations that will not affect the development of agriculture and will not make it, as Morawiecki assured, the 'locomotive of the country's economic development.' However, Morawiecki's plan will give farmers false hope before the elections that this government is doing something for them, and the prime minister did not hide at all that it was about the elections, as he concluded his speech with an appeal to farmers to vote accordingly in the local elections if they like his plan.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,23744258,propozycja-pis-dla-wsi-slaba-ale-lepsza-niz-nic-naszkowska.html

-- A PIZ PARTY MP FROM GOWIN WANTS TO INTRODUCE A MANDATORY LOCAL SUPPLY FOR SUPERMARKETS - says Michał Cieślak in Echo Dnia: “In my opinion, this is the only chance to rebuild local processing and sell agricultural products directly by farmers. This is a chance for dozens of jobs in every district and a renewed development of agriculture. I spoke about this during the election campaign, and since I took office as an MP, I have been determinedly working to implement these solutions.”
http://www.echodnia.eu/strefa-biznesu/wiadomosci/a/swietokrzyski-posel-z-partii-porozumienie-michal-cieslak-o-obowiazku-zaopatrzenia-lokalnego-przez-duze-markety,13382324/

-- MAZUREK, TERLECKI, AND GLIŃSKI WITH A BIG PACKAGE - PHOTO REPORT FROM KURSKI'S WEDDING IN FAKT: https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/tak-joanna-i-jacek-kurscy-bawili-sie-na-weselu/ge2eynm

-- Franciszka Cegielska, the legendary mayor of Gdynia and Minister of Health in the AWS-UW government, would have turned 72 today. Birthdays would also be celebrated by: Maria Stolzman, creator of the non-governmental movement in rural areas and Deputy Minister of Agriculture, and the recently deceased Jerzy Ciemniewski, a law professor, TK judge, and friend of Tadeusz Mazowiecki.

-- BIRTHDAYS: Gołda Tencer, Michał Sufin, Terka Teleżyńska.


Łukasz Mężyk