Thank you, Mr. President @AndrzejDuda, for the nomination as Ambassador - the special representative of the President of the Republic of Poland for the Three Seas Initiative. It is a great honor and distinction. I accept it with pride and responsibility.#Trójmorze #3SIIF #BGK pic.twitter.com/GqDiBsExtb

— Beata Daszyńska-Muzyczka (@BDaszynska) July 4, 2023

PARTNER CONTENT Abroad The post-COVID shadow continues to be visible in the global economic outlook. A common denominator is strong sentiment in services and weak sentiment in industry. This reflects a shift in consumption from durable goods towards services. Disinflationary processes are also advancing. In the major economies, CPI dynamics have moved away from the peaks recorded in recent quarters. This is aided by commodity markets, which have returned to their pre-Russian aggression on Ukraine state, and a decline in real household savings. In conditions of uncertainty regarding global economic growth, there is a move away from a uniform direction of monetary policy changes towards an increasingly diverse one. Major central banks, including the Fed, ECB, and BoE, may still raise interest rates in the coming months. At the same time, however, some, including the People's Bank of China, may decide to cut rates. Domestically In the first quarter, annual GDP growth fell below zero. The state of negative economic growth will likely extend throughout the first half of the year. This is primarily burdened by weak domestic demand associated with the reduction of household disposable income. At the same time, however, the labor market remains in good condition. This means that the experienced slowdown should not be assessed as temporary. Crucial is the visible intensification of disinflationary processes. We predict a further significant drop in CPI in the coming quarters. The reduction in price dynamics will contribute to an improvement in consumer sentiment and will shift domestic demand back onto a growth path. Simultaneously, although in Q1 net exports made a strong contribution, the weakness of the economic situation in industry, not only domestically but also in key export markets, indicates that such good results were only temporary. They will weaken in subsequent quarters. Consequently, the economy's results this year will remain weak. We maintain our previous quarter forecasts that GDP will grow by 0.7% in the full year 2023 and by 2.8% in 2024. Our expectations regarding the Monetary Policy Council's (RPP) policy also remain unchanged. Declining CPI opens the way for interest rate reductions. We assume a first cut of 50 basis points in November of this year and further cuts (a total of 150 basis points) next year.