From January 1, 2023, there will be a departure from WIBOR as the benchmark for calculating loan interest rates. The primary option, assumed by the government and the KNF, is for GPW Benchmark and the banking sector to jointly develop a new benchmark. If this is not achieved in time, the Polonia rate will be adopted.
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Replacing WIBOR with the Polonia rate is not the baseline scenario. It is a contingency plan in case the banking sector does not develop a method for transitioning to the benchmark developed by GPW Benchmark sufficiently early. The transition to this specific benchmark is the baseline scenario – said
Jacek Jastrzębski, Chairman of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF), in an interview with Marek Chądzyński at the Impact’22 conference in Poznań.
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If we fail to do this quickly enough to move away from WIBOR by January 1, 2023, we will switch to the Polonia rate – states the KNF head.
According to the original schedule, WIBOR was to be withdrawn from the market in 2025 anyway. However, drastic interest rate hikes, which translate into a significant increase in WIBOR, are accelerating work on creating a new benchmark.
Jastrzębski also pointed out in Poznań:
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The trend of replacing benchmarks like WIBOR with rates based on overnight rates is not solely a Polish trend. A move away from WIBOR to such a rate would happen anyway, and now it will be accelerated.
The Successor to WIBOR: What's It All About
WIBOR is the rate used to calculate loan interest. Due to its significant volatility and dependence on interest rates, we have recently observed a sharp increase in mortgage loan installments.
Consequently, as we reported
in this article, government plans within the framework of assistance for borrowers repaying mortgages anticipate a quicker departure from WIBOR than previously planned.
If the banking community, together with the benchmark administrator, does not establish how to replace WIBOR sufficiently early – so as to manage to move away from it in new agreements from January 1, 2023 – then the Polonia rate would be the basis for the new benchmark. Polonia is the average overnight deposit interest rate that banks place with each other.
In turn, according to 300Gospodarka's information, when it comes to the direct successor to WIBOR, to be developed by GPW Benchmark, the likely candidate is
WIRD – the Warsaw Deposit Market Index. This is the average interest rate for overnight deposits placed by banks, financial institutions, and large enterprises.
According to the administrator, GPW Benchmark, this benchmark is not only lower than the three-month and six-month WIBOR rates, on which banks currently base interest calculations, but also lower than the Polonia rate published by the NBP.
On Tuesday, May 10, the government adopted a draft law specifying the detailed principles of borrower assistance, including the departure from WIBOR from 2023 – we reported on this
in this article.
WIRD: Why Can't It Be Adopted Immediately?
The main reason why the Polonia rate is being considered as an alternative, contingency benchmark is that WIRD, as such, could not be directly applied in loan agreements because it is a short-term rate.
However, an index can be created based on it that will serve as the basis for loan interest rates, similar to the SARON rate, which replaced LIBOR at the beginning of this year for setting interest rates for, for example,
Swiss franc loans.
From an overnight rate, a three-month rate index can be calculated, for example, using the compound interest method.
This, however, requires appropriate calculations, the development of a methodology, and the implementation of the new benchmark by the banking sector.
Importantly, simulations prepared by GPW Benchmark indicate that an index based on WIRD would be lower not only than current WIBOR rates but also than a similar index created based on Polonia. The administrator conducted calculations based on data from the last five years, and throughout this entire period, WIRD (and WIRF) were significantly lower than the rate provided by the NBP.
According to our information, GPW Benchmark will begin publishing the new benchmarks on May 17 or 18. The company is currently commencing consultations with the financial sector on the methodology for developing these rates.