-- WHY DONALD TUSK SHOULD NOT ATTACK BELARUSIAN IT SPECIALISTS - RUSLAN SZOSZYN IN RZ: "Are Belarusian IT specialists working in Poland and holding the Pole's Card still 'them' or already 'us'? Prime Minister Tusk should know that it's not worth cramming distinct and often contradictory thought shortcuts into one tweet. Nothing good has ever come from inciting hatred against national minorities." https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40644361-ruslan-szoszyn-dlaczego-donald-tusk-nie-powinien-atakowac-bialoruskich-informatykow -- WE HAVE MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH VAT. IS A "DOMAŃSKI'S HOLE" IN THE STATE BUDGET BEING PREPARED? - PIOTR MIĄCZYŃSKI IN GW: "Citibank economists, in their opinion from the second half of May, wrote that they see a risk that VAT revenues this year could be PLN 25-28 billion lower than planned. The most famous hole in the history of the Polish budget was the so-called Bauc hole from 2001, named after the then Minister of Finance, Jarosław Bauc. It turned out then that the budget deficit could exceed PLN 88 billion – all budget revenues at that time amounted to PLN 152 billion. There won't be such a drama here, but Domański's hole could reach tens of billions of zlotys, exceeding the planned budget deficit (PLN 184 billion). State budget revenues are projected at PLN 682.38 billion." https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,147743,31068011,mamy-wielkie-problemy-z-podatkiem-vat-szykuje-sie-dziura-domanskiego.html -- THE EFFECT OF "EVIL PiS" IS FADING, AND PEOPLE ARE STARTING TO MISS EFFECTIVE GOVERNANCE. HOW TO OPERATE IN A DIVIDED COALITION? - PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: "Somewhere in the shadows lurks another problem that could harm the entire ruling coalition. Third Way and New Left, which achieved disastrous results in the European elections, are thinking about seeking differences rather than common ground to rebuild support, because the fact that they share power is enough, so everything else can be fodder for conflict. In a situation where the effect of 'evil PiS' is naturally fading, as voters remember the past eight years less than the last six months, effective governance will have to be addressed. The question of how to govern in a coalition that differs in almost everything – on issues of abortion, Sunday trading, registered partnerships, the economy, housing, etc. – will increasingly affect Tusk from now on, who is just embarking on a serious struggle for European positions. Meanwhile, the presidential elections are only a year away, but this year in Polish politics will pass faster than anyone imagines." https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-karty-prawicy,nId,7579653 -- RMF ON MANFRED WEBER'S CONFLICT WITH PO MEPs - as Katarzyna Szymańska-Borginon writes: "The Polish delegation, consisting of 21 PO MEPs and two from PSL, decided that the Polish candidate for vice-chairman would be Andrzej Halicki, who until now was the head of the Polish PO-PSL delegation. However, it turns out that Manfred Weber, in the name of gender balance, put forward MEP Ewa Kopacz for this position. The former Polish prime minister is surprised and informed Weber about this in a letter, emphasizing that she "does not intend to run for this position." She reminded him that the Poles' candidate is Halicki and called on him "to respect this decision." It is unofficially said within the Polish delegation that "Weber has declared war on the Polish delegation." -- RMF'S ARTICLE CONTAINS THE STATEMENT "GERMAN ARROGANCE": "The Polish delegation, consisting of 21 PO MEPs and two from PSL, decided that the Polish candidate for vice-chairman would be Andrzej Halicki, who until now was the head of the Polish PO-PSL delegation. However, it turns out that Manfred Weber, in the name of gender balance, put forward MEP Ewa Kopacz for this position. The former Polish prime minister is surprised and informed Weber about this in a letter, emphasizing that she "does not intend to run for this position." She reminded him that the Poles' candidate is Halicki and called on him "to respect this decision." It is unofficially said within the Polish delegation that "Weber has declared war on the Polish delegation." Where does this German arrogance come from? The Polish delegation in the EPP began demanding positions for itself commensurate with its numbers." https://www.rmf24.pl/fakty/swiat/news-weber-wypowiedzial-wojne-polakom-w-europejskiej-partii-ludow,nId,7581745 -- PUSHBACK WITHIN THE EU, GERMAN POLICE BREAK THE LAW - DGP'S FRONT PAGE. -- "BREAKING ALL RULES." TOMCZYK ANNOUNCES A CONVERSATION BETWEEN SIEMONIAK AND HIS GERMAN COUNTERPART - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/06/18 -- THE MIGRATION BALANCE OF ELECTORATES MUST CAUSE THE HIGHEST ALARM: DEMOCRATS LOST AS MANY AS 238,000 OF THEIR PREVIOUS VOTERS FROM OCTOBER 15TH TO THE RIGHT WING - ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI IN GW: "However, the most important are the migrations that have occurred between the Coalition of October 15th (KO, TD, and Left) and the right wing (PiS and Confederation). More than half a million voters have fundamentally changed their political sympathies: 140,000 PiS or Confederation voters from 2023 now supported KO (78,000), TD (51,000), or the Left (11,000), and as many as 377,000 KO, TD, or Left voters from 2023 voted on June 9th for the Confederation (220,000) or PiS (157,000). The balance of this migration must cause the highest alarm: the democrats lost as many as 238,000 of their previous voters to the right wing – 170,000 of them were taken by the Confederation, and 68,000 by PiS. All parties of the Coalition of October 15th contributed to this defeat; each of them recorded a negative migration balance with both the Confederation and PiS." -- CIVIC COALITION WITH 37.06% SUPPORT. IT IS TRUE THAT IT OUTPACED PIS (36.16% SUPPORT), BUT THE SUCCESS IS SOLELY DUE TO TAKING OVER 236,000 FORMER TD VOTERS - states Machowski. -- PIS IS THE MOST DISAPPOINTED BY ITS VOTERS FROM 8 MONTHS AGO – ONLY 8% OF THEM SUPPORTED OTHER PARTIES IN THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS - writes Machowski in GW: "Over 18% of voters from the Sejm elections, when voting in the European Parliament elections, supported a different party than on October 15th. In total, there were nearly 2 million such voters. PiS was the least disappointed by its voters from 8 months ago – only 8% of them supported other parties in the European elections. For KO, it was 13%, for the Confederation – 16%, for the Left – 43%, and for TD – more than half, i.e., 58%. The scale of migration between parties and their balance is illustrated by the chart below." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31068665,wybory-do-pe-zwyciestwo-demokratow-czy-udana-kontrofensywa.html -- THE EXAMPLE OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC, WHERE PETR PAVEL BECAME PRESIDENT, SHOWS THAT SOME FORMER MILITARY MAN MAY ALSO APPEAR IN THE GAME - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: "Precisely this military aspect may turn out to be the most important factor. The example of the Czech Republic, where Petr Pavel, former Chief of Staff and Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, became president, shows that some former military man may also appear in the game. In Poland, in this context, Gen. Romuald Andrzejczak or Major Jacek Siewiera, head of the National Security Bureau, and at the same time an experienced doctor, are mentioned. And the names of military personnel – until the final list of candidates is decided – will keep appearing." -- WILL TRZASKOWSKI'S PROGRESSIVENESS (WHICH RECENTLY MANIFESTED ITSELF IN THE DECISION TO REMOVE CROSSES FROM WARSAW OFFICES) NOT BE A BURDEN FOR HIM IN THE SECOND ROUND - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI FURTHER IN RZ: "Donald Tusk must finally decide whether Rafał Trzaskowski will be the candidate and whether his progressiveness (which recently manifested itself in the decision to remove crosses from Warsaw offices) will not be a burden for him in the second round, where, to win, he must also attract the moderately conservative center. In a situation of war, when Poles are looking for a strong leader, perhaps Prime Minister Donald Tusk himself will decide to run?" https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40645601-michal-szuldrzynski-jaki-jest-polityczny-stan-gry-po-oswiadczeniu-polsatu-w-sprawie-startu-doroty-gawryluk-w-wyborach-prezydenckich -- THE PROBLEMS OF THE THIRD WAY AND THE LEFT ARE CLEARLY VISIBLE – AND THEY DID NOT APPEAR NOW, BUT HAVE BEEN MATURING FOR A LONGER TIME - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: "The problems of the Third Way and the Left are clearly visible – and they did not appear now, but have been maturing for a longer time. The coalition of Poland 2050 and PSL has lost over half of its support percentage-wise compared to the October elections. Szymon Hołownia's and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz's parties lacked a strong and coherent message for the European elections. Part of the problem was that while Poland 2050 had previously positioned itself as a force for the future and green, in coalition with PSL, it took on a more conservative hue. The Third Way was pointed to, for example, as the reason for not passing laws liberalizing abortion and introducing registered partnerships, which was supported by the majority of PL2050 voters who had similar views on this matter as KO and Left voters." -- THE LEFT BEHAVES AS IF IT WANTED TO BECOME PART OF THE CIVIC COALITION - SAWCZUK FURTHER IN KL: "In recent months, the New Left has been behaving as if it wanted to become part of the Civic Coalition. However, if an official alliance does not occur, there are fewer and fewer clear reasons to vote specifically for the Left, and consequently, it neither develops its structures nor gains support." https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2024/06/18/wyborcze-podsumowanie-5-uwag-o-polskiej-polityce-po-wyborach-do-pe/ -- 75TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE BIRTH OF THE LATE PRESIDENT LECH KACZYŃSKI, 75TH BIRTHDAY OF JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI. Jan Rokita turns 64. The day after tomorrow, Mateusz Morawiecki will turn 56. -- BIRTHDAYS: Jarosław Kaczyński, Jan Rokita, Cezary Przybylski, Piotr Niemczyk, Paweł Szramka, Marcin Leśkiewicz, Sylwia Pusz, Katarzyna Jachowicz.