state of play: 07/06/2026

Political Landscape: Prof. Marciniak on the 'Kacprzyk Effect' and Szacki on Trzaskowski and Tusk's Moves

Łukasz Mężyk

-- THE UNITED STATES IS SENDING MORE AMERICAN SOLDIERS TO POLAND WITHIN THREE MONTHS - JOANNA MIZIOŁEK IN DZIENNIK GAZETA PRAWNA: “As 'Dziennik Gazeta Prawna' has learned, additional American soldiers will arrive in Poland within three months. There are to be 5,000 of them on a rotational basis. Additional American soldiers are to arrive in Poland within three months. – Our ally declares the political will and determination to implement both ventures – assures an informant.”
https://edgp.gazetaprawna.pl/kraj/bezpieczenstwo/artykuly/11271715,zolnierze-amerykanscy-w-ciagu-trzech-miesiecy-w-polsce-co-ze-stala-ba.html

-- 56 PERCENT OF SURVEY PARTICIPANTS BELIEVE THE CRISIS IN POLISH-UKRAINIAN RELATIONS WAS CAUSED BY VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY. PRESIDENT KAROL NAWROCKI WAS INDICATED BY 19.7 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS - POLSAT NEWS SURVEY:https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2026-07-06/kryzys-w-relacjach-z-ukraina-polacy-wskazali-winnego-w-sondazu/

-- BEFORE THE HOLIDAYS, THE MIDDLE CLASS IS WATCHING ITS WALLET. "THE FEES ARE SO HIGH MY HEAD IS SPINNING" - NEWSWEEK FEATURE:

-- THE ENTIRE CIVIC PLATFORM IS LIKE TRZASKOWSKI IN WARSAW. I CAN BE AN UNLIKABLE AND NOT OVERLY HARDWORKING GUY BECAUSE YOU WON'T ELECT A PIS MEMBER ANYWAY. I AM CONVINCED THEY ALL THINK LIKE THIS - DAWID KARPIUK IN NEWSWEEK: “Paweł admits that he can afford for the state to not care about him. But it still annoys him. — How is it that the party that exists thanks to the fact that a large part of the middle class in Poland is liberal, pro-European, and allergic to PiS, Confederation supporters, and Braun, is exploiting this very middle class the most? The entire Civic Platform is like Trzaskowski in Warsaw. I can be an unlikable and not overly hardworking guy because you won't elect a PiS member anyway. I am convinced they all think like this. They will give to everyone, but they won't even offer symbolic, ideological gestures to the middle class. That annoys me the most. I'm lucky enough that I don't need social benefits, and I haven't been to the hospital – knock on wood. My son, whom I am raising with my ex-wife, goes to a public school, but if PiS returns to power, we will move him to a private one. I have medical care from work. The one thing I would want is for the state to notice me once in a while and say: you're a good fellow, Pawełek. Keep it up. We won't hit you with more contributions for a while. Well, but they know that a farmer will block Warsaw, a miner will burn tires in front of the Sejm, but what will a suit do? Nothing.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/wakacje-klasy-sredniej-kiedys-byly-maroko-i-tajlandia-teraz-jest-strach/81ck434,452ad802

-- 26 THOUSAND PER HOUR. NEUROSURGEONS EARNED, THE HOSPITAL FACES A FINE AND BAILIFF - MICHAŁ JANCZURA IN WP: “Up to PLN 26,000 per hour and over PLN 300,000 per day – this is how much a neurosurgery company operating in several provinces could charge hospitals. In small district facilities, doctors performed several-minute procedures in rapid succession, but according to the National Health Fund (NFZ), they reported significantly more expensive procedures. Hundreds of patients were given identical medical documentation. The hospital in Mogilno has reported the case to the prosecutor's office. The NFZ is seeking over PLN 2.6 million in fines from this single facility alone. The management does not have money for salaries in July.”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/26-tysiecy-na-godzine-neurochirurdzy-zarabiali-szpital-ma-kare-i-komornika-7303584383252896a

-- A CRISIS UNPRECEDENTED IN POLISH HEALTHCARE - SONIA SOBCZYK-GRYGIEL IN BUSINESS INSIDER: “- I don't remember such a multidimensional crisis in this sector. The question is, what does this mean in the long run? This avalanche could claim many victims – says one of our sources. The question remains, however, whether for the Polish political class, short-term political interests will once again be more important than the public good? For now, however, the coalition will pay for the escalating crisis, which – as far as healthcare is concerned – has wasted the first nearly three years of its rule.”
https://businessinsider.com.pl/gospodarka/kryzys-w-ochronie-zdrowia-narasta-donald-tusk-stawia-ultimatum/xc54p4x

-- ZERO.PL: IN WARSAW, A WHISTLEBLOWER WAS FIRED, AND RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI LIED - AS WRITTEN BY PATRYK SŁOWIK AND JAKUB STYCZYŃSKI: “The Mayor of Warsaw and his subordinates lied about the whistleblower from the Municipal Roads Authority (ZDM). The man was fired despite the protection granted to him by Rafał Trzaskowski. We have an internal ZDM note contradicting the office's official narrative. The National Labour Inspectorate also conducted an inspection – it found that the whistleblower's rights had been violated. Zero.pl has evidence of the lies of Trzaskowski and his officials. The ZDM was aware of the whistleblower's status. This is clear from an internal ZDM note that we obtained.
The whistleblower's rights were violated. This was confirmed by the National Labour Inspectorate during an inspection. Among other things, the man was not paid the money he was owed.”
https://zero.pl/news/zwolniony-sygnalista-z-zdm-dokumenty-przecza-oficjalnej-wersji-urzedu-i-trzaskowskiego

-- 51.2 PERCENT OF THOSE SURVEYED BELIEVE THAT THE MAYOR OF WARSAW, RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI, SHOULD RESIGN in connection with the Southern Hospital case; 41.1 percent hold the opposite view – according to the latest United Surveys by IBRiS poll for Wirtualna Polska:
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art44772451-wiekszosc-polakow-za-dymisja-prezydenta-warszawy-sondaz-po-aferze-w-szpitalu-poludniowym

-- TUSK IS STILL A SKILLED LAWNMOWER OPERATOR, BUT HE HASN'T NOTICED THAT THE LAWN'S COMPOSITION IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT - SAYS PROF. RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MAGDA GAŁCZYŃSKA ON ONE.PL: “To put it bluntly, Civic Coalition (KO) needs a tectonic shock, because the limit of this party's strategic mistakes was exceeded long ago. Without tough decisions, Tusk has no chance of maintaining power. Unlike a dozen or so years ago, disappointed Civic Platform voters will not switch their votes to PiS; they have several other parties to choose from. So they have somewhere to go electorally.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/w-ko-potrzebny-jest-wstrzas-tektoniczny-a-premier-nie-zrobil-nic/91b8h6k,79cfc278

-- PROF. MARCINIAK: THE "KACPRZYK EFFECT" MAY BE DELAYED - HEAD OF CBOS IN AN INTERVIEW WITH AGNIESZKA KUBLIK: “Polls conducted after the scandal erupted do not show a decline for Civic Coalition (KO). For now, it is under the protective umbrella of its supporters, and KO, as we know from research, has loyal voters. But will some voters, discouraged by this scandal, stay home before the elections? The 'Kacprzyk effect' may be delayed and appear as the demobilization of voters who voted for KO in 2023.”

-- THE GOVERNMENT WILL FACE THE CONSEQUENCES OF THIS SCANDAL DUE TO ITS INABILITY TO MANAGE THE CRISIS. OR RATHER, CRISES - PROF. EWA MARCINIAK CONTINUES IN GW: “The government will face the consequences of this scandal due to its inability to manage the crisis. Or rather, crises, because it is a reputational crisis for KO, even though the doctor in question has resigned his party membership, a crisis for this specific hospital, even though the supervisory board and director have been dismissed, and finally, a crisis of the healthcare system. The current government is always politically responsible for such situations. Therefore, actions were taken, but on the one hand, they were communicated too weakly, and on the other hand, they were not politically assertive enough.”

-- THE FOCUS OF RESPONSIBILITY IS SHIFTING FROM THE DOCTOR'S MISCONDUCT TO THE GUILT OF THE CITY AUTHORITIES, BECAUSE IT APPEARS AS IF THIS DOCTOR OWES HIS CAREER TO HIS PARTY - CBOS HEAD CONTINUES TO AGNIESZKA KUBLIK: “It is normal for competition to occur in the political arena over who sets the agenda. But the story of the young doctor, Dawid Kacprzyk, who earned such enormous sums of money dishonestly, is 'winning.' This is an unimaginable sum for an ordinary Pole. Large numbers are at play here, but the focus is shifting from the doctor's misconduct to the guilt of the city authorities, because it appears as if this doctor owes his career to his party. This aspect is most loudly echoed in the opposition's narrative.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32894429,prof-marciniak-efekt-kacprzyka-moze-byc-odlozony-w-czasie.html

-- I DON'T SEE MUCH SENSE IN TRZASKOWSKI AND TUSK'S MOVES - WOJCIECH SZACKI ON TYGODNIK POLITYKA'S PORTAL: “Perhaps the fault lies with me, perhaps I don't know and understand enough, but I don't see much sense in the moves made by Rafał Trzaskowski and Donald Tusk on Friday. Trzaskowski's conference was supposed to look like a show of strength – and perhaps it would have, if it had taken place a dozen or so days earlier. Meanwhile, questions were asked about the resignations of the deputy mayors, and Trzaskowski dismissed them.”

-- TRZASKOWSKI WANTED TO MAKE A SHOW OF STRENGTH, IT JUST DIDN'T WORK OUT. IT'S HARD TO SAY WHAT TUSK WANTED TO DO - SZACKI CONTINUES: “Trzaskowski wanted to make a show of strength, it just didn't work out. It's hard to say what Tusk wanted to do. On July 3, the Prime Minister decided to announce that things were not going well in healthcare, that information about irregularities was repeated every year, and now the Minister of Health Jolanta Sobierańska-Grenda and the head of the NFZ, Filip Nowak, have until July 7 to figure out what to do about: queue jumping, special treatment in hospitals (so-called VIP lounges), and excessively high earnings for doctors in public healthcare. And if they don't figure it out, they will be reduced.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2349229,1,notatnik-polityczny-trzaskowski-chcial-zrobic-pokaz-sily-tylko-mu-nie-wyszlo-a-tusk.read

-- WARSAW CITY HALL LACKS STABILITY. A PERSONNEL MERRY-GO-ROUND UNDER RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI'S ADMINISTRATION - ROBERT BISKUPSKI IN RZ: “As we hear at city hall, many other dismissals also resulted from internal conflicts and a lack of a 'firm hand' governing the city hall. 'Councilors would come to offices and threaten officials with dismissal, and there was no reaction. They didn't want to fight windmills' – we hear from a high-ranking city hall official. In the corridors of the administration, it is said that the last two dismissals are also not substantive. – What happened is absurd – says one of the directors at city hall. – Personnel matters have been poor in the office for years, and now it's getting even worse – she adds.”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art44771241-warszawski-ratusz-bez-stabilnosci-personalna-karuzela-za-rzadow-rafala-trzaskowskiego

-- WHAT GAME IS GIERTYCH PLAYING? HIS ROLE RAISES DOUBTS - RENATA GROCHAL IN NEWSWEEK: “However, the role of Roman Giertych, a Member of Parliament and deputy head of the Civic Coalition (KO) parliamentary club, and at the same time the representative of an Austrian businessman, who was denied payment by Kaczyński for the "K-Towers" project, which made him feel cheated and report to the prosecutor's office, raises doubts in the entire affair. When Giertych attacks the prosecutor's office for the decision to dismiss the case, in whose name does he act? If he does it as a representative, it is understandable that he will do everything in the interest of his client. If as an MP, he should act in the interest of the state and its citizens. And it is not in the interest of citizens for the prosecutor's office to act on political orders – whether from Ziobro or Giertych.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/grochal-gierki-giertycha-prokuratura-nie-moze-dzialac-na-polityczne-zlecenie/0g0th97

-- PAWEŁ KUREK, HEAD OF POLSKA 2050 IN THE VOIVODESHIP, RECEIVED POSITIONS IN TWO MUNICIPAL COMPANIES IN LUBLIN WITHIN A MONTH - JAWNY LUBLIN: “Paweł Kurek, head of Polska 2050 in the voivodeship, received positions in two municipal companies within a month. To become a member of the supervisory board of TBS Nowy Dom, he sent a questionnaire to the Lublin City Hall. To become the deputy president of Lubelskie Przedsiębiorstwo Gospodarki Komunalnej, he didn't even have to enter a competition; a conversation was enough. The Wolności Foundation appeals for the depoliticization of municipal companies.”
https://jawnylublin.pl/szybka-sciezka-dzialacza-polski-2050-do-miejskich-spolek-wplynal-kwestionariusz/

-- I AM SURPRISED BY THE DEGREE OF ANTI-POLISH SENTIMENT IN UKRAINE: I HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH BILATERAL RELATIONS FOR 20 YEARS, BUT I HAVE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS BEFORE – SAYS WOJCIECH KONOŃCZUK, DIRECTOR OF THE CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES, IN AN INTERVIEW WITH ESTERA FLIEGER IN RZ: “I am surprised by the degree of anti-Polish sentiment in Ukraine: I have been dealing with bilateral relations for 20 years, but I have never seen anything like this before – both in the media and on social networks, there is a wave of almost hatred towards Poland. Only some of these opinions are Russian trolls. Let us also remember that, for example, Facebook and Telegram are of great importance for public debate in Ukraine, due to the weakness of traditional media; no nationwide daily newspaper is published there.”

-- AN INSUBORDINATE JOURNALIST CAN BE BROUGHT TO ORDER – IF HE IS A MAN, IT IS ENOUGH TO THREATEN HIM WITH BEING SENT TO THE FRONT - KONOŃCZUK CONTINUES IN RZ: “An insubordinate journalist can be brought to order – if he is a man, it is enough to threaten him with being sent to the front. Some of them remain in the service of the security services. Pluralism in key media in Ukraine does not exist. This is also why an agreement with Poland will not be reached quickly. It will not be achieved until a critical historiography begins to be written in Kyiv and there is consent for it.”
https://www.rp.pl/spoleczenstwo/art44767921-wojciech-kononczuk-fala-nienawisci-wobec-polski-w-ukrainie-nie-tylko-trolle

-- MONDAY'S POLITICAL AGENDA: TUSK AND KOSINIAK TO SIGN COOPERATION AGREEMENT BETWEEN PGZ AND WZL-2 WITH ANDURIL INDUSTRIES, CZARNEK'S MORNING CONFERENCE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live/2026-07-06

-- 33 YEARS AGO, HANNA SUCHOCKA'S GOVERNMENT INTRODUCED VAT.

-- BIRTHDAYS: Ryszard Petru turns 53, Cezary Łazarewicz, Rafał Dutkiewicz, Anna Zalewska, Andrzej Szkaradek. 


Łukasz Mężyk