-- WHAT DO WE KNOW?

-- PRIME MINISTER DONALD TUSK has been "dropping" the Finance Minister's information – the so-called "slides" with the assumptions for the 2026 budget draft – at the last minute for several Council of Ministers meetings over several weeks, 300POLITYKA hears from a government member.

-- THE BUDGET ASSUMPTIONS ARE BEING KEPT UNDER STRICT SECRECY, which is not the norm, as the government – as is customary – adopts the budget bill draft at the end of August – which is next month (a year ago, Tusk's government adopted the draft on August 28, Morawiecki's government on August 24, 2023, August 30, 2022) and forwards it to the Sejm after consultations with the Social Dialogue Council. Morawiecki – as prime minister – discussed budget assumptions and drafts much earlier. Now there is silence.

-- SILENCE -- EXCEPT FOR THE "MASSIVE" ANNOUNCEMENT BY THE PRIME MINISTER IN PABIANICE LAST WEEKEND: "We have debt, we have a high deficit. I cannot exceed either of these categories, because a domino effect and very bad consequences will start. I must act within the scope of responsibility for the entirety of state affairs. (...) One expert rightly noted that we have Swedish expenses and Irish taxes. We are at the forefront of the EU in terms of social spending, and taxes in Poland are lower than the European average. We have defense spending. Generally, every responsible prime minister must look for actions that will not turn us upside down."

-- ACCORDING TO OUR INTERLOCUTORS, A 20% SAVINGS OPTION AT THE MINISTRY EXPENDITURE LEVEL IS BEING CONSIDERED.

-- THE PRIME MINISTER IS AFRAID THAT THE NEW PRESIDENT WILL SEND THE BUDGET TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL (Art. 224 sec. 2 of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland), and the Tribunal will deem the budget unconstitutional by exceeding the constitutional limit of public debt to GDP – 300POLITYKA hears.

-- THE BASIS FOR POTENTIALLY DEEMING THE BUDGET UNCONSTITUTIONAL WOULD BE ARTICLE 216 SEC. 5 OF THE CONSTITUTION: "It is forbidden to contract loans or grant financial guarantees and sureties, as a result of which public debt will exceed 3/5 of the value of the annual gross domestic product. The method of calculating the value of the annual gross domestic product and public debt shall be determined by statute."
https://www.sejm.gov.pl/prawo/konst/polski/10.htm

-- THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER QUESTION: Will The Left agree to an "austerity budget" that the Labour Party in the UK had to accept, and will Polska 2050 vote for a budget without funds to implement its flagship postulate of personal assistance for people with disabilities.

-- TADAAAM: THE PRESIDENT MAY ORDER THE SEJM'S TERM TO BE SHORTENED IN CASE OF FAILURE TO PASS THE BUDGET – Article 225 of the Constitution:

"If within 4 months from the date of submitting the budget bill to the Sejm, it is not presented to the President of the Republic for signature, the President of the Republic may, within 14 days, order the shortening of the Sejm's term."

***

-- FRANCE'S BUDGET BOMB IS A WARNING SIGNAL FOR EUROPE, WHICH IS HEADING TOWARDS BANKRUPTCY -- POLITICO EUROPE: "On the contrary, it was by far the clearest and most pressing evidence that an aging and increasingly powerless Europe is heading towards bankruptcy if it does not make radical changes: digitalization, decarbonization, and defense – all these elements must be financed in the face of demographic decline. However, it has little or no room for maneuver due to two additional "D" factors – debt and deficit."

-- FINANCING THE HUGE MODERNIZATION OF RUSTY EUROPEAN ARMED FORCES -- POLITICO EUROPE CONTINUES: "At the same time, to solve this problem, governments must also finance the massive modernization of rusty European armed forces to face the renewed threat from the East. So far, Germany, the UK, and France have agreed to generous spending, but Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has rejected this challenge."

-- NEW NATO MEMBER STATE COMMITMENTS TO INCREASE DEFENSE SPENDING WILL INCREASE THE EU BUDGET DEFICIT BY 1.3-2.8 PERCENT OF GDP -- WE CONTINUE TO READ IN POLITICO EUROPE: "Credit rating agency KBRA estimates that new NATO member state commitments to increase defense spending will increase the budget deficit in the EU by 1.3-2.8% of GDP, depending on how quickly and on what the money is spent."

-- FRANCE'S DEFICIT REACHED ALMOST 9% OF GDP IN 2020 AND HAS NOT FALLEN BELOW THE EU TARGET OF 3% SINCE 2019. EVEN ACCORDING TO BAYROU'S FORECASTS, IT WILL NOT RETURN TO THIS LEVEL UNTIL 2029 -- STILL POLITICO: "Having avoided the rescue discipline associated with the euro area debt crisis a decade ago, France's finances are in worse shape than any other major economy in the region. Rating agencies regularly point to a deteriorating debt trajectory. The deficit reached almost 9% of GDP in 2020 and has not fallen below the EU target of 3% since 2019. Even according to Bayrou's forecasts, it will not return to this level until 2029."
https://www.politico.eu/article/francois-bayrou-france-bombshell-puts-debt-sustainability-back-on-the-agenda/

***

-- TUSK SUGGESTS A PROBLEM WITH THE BUDGET. "I MUST SPEAK THE TRUTH" -- SEBASTIAN OGÓREK IN GW: "These are Tusk's first words of this kind. After all, during the election campaign, he promised many social benefits or tax reductions (like the famous promise of a tax-free amount of PLN 60,000, costing about PLN 50 billion). This time, the prime minister's words sounded like a suggestion for a policy shift towards budget cuts. And this is happening shortly before planning the 2026 budget."

-- A PERSON CLOSE TO THE PRIME MINISTER SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE NO CUTS, BUT RATHER NO NEW SPENDING -- OGÓREK CONTINUES IN GW: "These are not accidental words, this is the government's new policy. You can't continue with the level of spending that PiS introduced all the time – says someone from the prime minister's entourage. As they suggest, there will be no cuts, but rather a lack of new spending."

-- WHEN ASKED EARLIER ABOUT HELP FOR RETIREES, TUSK ALSO STATED THAT THERE WOULD BE NO FURTHER MAJOR PROGRAMS FOR THEM -- OGÓREK STILL IN GW: "Interestingly, in Pabianice, when Tusk was asked earlier about help for retirees, he also stated that there would be no further major programs for them."
https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,147582,32132059,tusk-sugeruje-problem-z-budzetem-musze-powiedziec-slowa-prawdy.html

-- THERE IS NO ROOM IN THE BUDGET FOR PERSONAL ASSISTANCE -- AGNIESZKA JĘDRZEJCZYK IN OKO.PRESS: "This law could also have been a success, and it promises to be a disaster. And again, it's not about the law itself and what's in it, but about how it happened. The assistance service financed from the budget (and not from competition funds, which are there, or not, so sometimes someone will help you get up, wash and dress, and sometimes not) was, as we mentioned, one of Tusk's "100 Concrete Actions".

-- IT WAS EVIDENT THAT SOMETHING WAS WRONG. BUT THE GOVERNMENT SPOKESPERSON DID NOT RESPOND TO QUESTIONS FOR 10 DAYS (FOR COMPARISON – THEY RECORDED A VIDEO STATING THAT THERE WOULD BE NO ALIMONY TABLES ON THE DAY THE PROBLEM APPEARED) -- JĘDRZEJCZYK CONTINUES IN OKO.PRESS: "It was evident that something was wrong. But the government spokesperson did not respond to questions for 10 days (for comparison – they recorded a video stating that there would be no alimony tables on the day the problem appeared). OKO.press therefore submitted a request for access to public information to see these amendments – and the responses from the Ministry of Family, Labour and Social Policy. Eight days have passed, there is no response, although all the data is in one place in the electronic administrative document exchange system."

-- AND THIS IS HOW THE AUTHORITIES TREATED SEVERAL HUNDRED THOUSAND, AND PERHAPS EVEN SEVERAL MILLION PEOPLE, WHO UNDERSTAND THE PROJECT BETTER THAN THE PRIME MINISTER AND HIS PRESS SERVICE -- JĘDRZEJCZYK WRITES FURTHER IN OKO: And this is how the authorities treated several hundred thousand, and perhaps even several million people, who understand the project better than the prime minister and his press service. The consequence of this move will also be that the support benefit will not go towards normal life, but – if at all possible – towards paid, likely undeclared, assistance from private personal assistants. The reform will be distorted. And people, as always, will have to cope on their own."
https://oko.press/w-naszym-pkb-nie-ma-miejsca-na-asystencje-osobista-jak-rzad-to-zakomunikowal

-- BEREK ON PERSONAL ASSISTANCE: THE MOMENT OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THIS SOLUTION, ITS SCALING MUST BE ADJUSTED TO WHAT IS BUDGETARILY REAL – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/07/29/

-- BUDGET ON A COLLISION COURSE. THE VAT PROBLEM IS THE TIP OF THE ICEBERG -- ROBERT KĘDZIERSKI IN MONEY.PL: "The Ministry of Finance presented the budget execution report for the first half of the year. The data indicates problems with VAT revenue, and this is the foundation of budget revenues. - It can be assumed that revenues from this title will be about PLN 20 billion lower than planned - estimates Arkadiusz Trzciołek, senior economist at Citi Handlowy."

-- WILL THERE BE AN AMENDMENT TO THIS YEAR'S BUDGET? -- KĘDZIERSKI CONTINUES IN MONEY: "Question: what can the government do about the revenue gap? There are several ways out, and one of the most obvious is an amendment to the budget. This would mean increasing the deficit, which is currently PLN 289 billion, to an amount exceeding the "psychological" barrier of PLN 300 billion."

-- ACCORDING TO PEKAO, POLAND'S PUBLIC DEBT WILL INCREASE FROM 58% OF GDP IN 2025 TO 63% IN 2026 AND 67% IN 2027 -- KĘDZIERSKI FURTHER IN MONEY: "According to Pekao, Poland's public debt will increase from 58% of GDP in 2025 to 63% in 2026 and 67% in 2027. This exceeds the 60% limit defined in the Maastricht Treaty, although it is still below the EU average of 81%. Debt servicing costs are expected to stabilize at around 2.7% of GDP annually, which corresponds to the maximum from the European debt crisis of 2012."
https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/budzet-na-kursie-kolizyjnym-problem-z-vat-to-wierzcholek-gory-lodowej-7180728559512288a.html

-- THE SUCCESS OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR WILL DEPEND ON MAINTAINING MONTHLY REVENUES HIGHER THAN IN THE FIRST SIX MONTHS, AND ON CAREFUL EXPENDITURE MANAGEMENT -- GRZEGORZ KUBERA IN BUSINESS INSIDER: "According to execution data, the collection of taxes from financial institutions is also proceeding smoothly: PLN 3.5 billion at mid-year corresponds to 50.5% of the plan (PLN 6.9 billion for the whole of 2025), which supports the conclusion of a stable banking sector situation. Combined with the current revenue execution and the financial plan for the rest of the year, this provides a fuller, but demanding picture. The foundations of the budget are still based on indirect taxes, and the success of the second half of the year will depend on maintaining monthly revenues higher than in the first six months, and on careful expenditure management."
https://businessinsider.com.pl/gospodarka/polski-budzet-w-strefie-napiec-klopot-z-vat-to-tylko-czesc-szerszego-obrazu/xen2z3l

-- STATE EXPENDITURES ARE RISING AT AN ALARMING RATE AND WILL EXCEED 50% OF GDP THIS YEAR" – WARNS FOR – IN A REPORT PUBLISHED FIRST BY RZ (ANNA CIEŚLAK-WRÓBLEWSKA): "According to FOR's analysis, state operating costs reached 49.4% of GDP in 2024. This is more than the EU average and much more than in other countries in our region. Compared to 2015, public expenditure in Poland is higher by as much as 7.9% of GDP (it was about 41.5% then). "State expenditures are growing at an alarming rate and will exceed 50% of GDP this year" – warns FOR. The growth rate is also the highest in the EU – during the same period, as many as 11 member states have reduced their public expenditures relative to GDP."
https://www.rp.pl/budzet-i-podatki/art42763111-w-polsce-koszty-dzialania-panstwa-naleza-do-najwyzszych-w-ue-rekordowy-wzrost

-- FOR CLAIMS THAT THE NARRATIVE THAT RISING DEBT IS DUE TO DEFENSE SPENDING IS FALSE -- STILL IN RZ: "The popular narrative – readily perpetuated by politicians – claims that increasing military spending is responsible for the deterioration of public finances – notes Zieliński. – However, if in 2024 the Polish state had maintained the structure of other expenditures from 2015, then with increased military spending and debt servicing costs, the deficit would have been only 0.7% of GDP – he analyzes. In reality, it amounted to 6.7% of GDP."
https://www.rp.pl/budzet-i-podatki/art42763121-wydatki-sektora-publicznego-rosna-najszybciej-w-ue-to-grozne-dla-polski

***

-- GOVERNMENT CHANGES HAVE NOT IMPROVED ITS IMAGE – SHOWS AN IBRIS POLL CONDUCTED FOR RZ – JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ: "over 78% of respondents answered that the reconstruction did not affect their assessment of the government. Among those whose opinion did change, 37.6% of respondents answered that it improved their opinion of the government, and for 37.2% – it worsened it."

-- THE RESHUFFLE OF POWER DID NOT IMPRESS EVEN 54% OF CIVIC COALITION VOTERS AND 59% OF RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI'S ELECTORATE -- NIZINKIEWICZ CONTINUES.

-- THE ONLY CHANGE THAT COULD INFLUENCE PUBLIC OPINION MOODS IS THE PRIME MINISTER'S RESIGNATION – PROF. ANTONI DUDEK TELLS RZ IN AN INTERVIEW.
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art42766221-czy-rekonstrukcja-przekonala-polakow-do-rzadu-donalda-tuska-nowy-sondaz-rzeczpospolitej

-- THE RECONSTRUCTION IN NO WAY SOLVES THE PROBLEM THAT – IT MUST BE HONESTLY ADMITTED, DUE TO ITS OWN FAULT – THE LEADER OF THE CIVIC COALITION HAS NOW – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: "Adam Bodnar, who is trying to rationalize the actions related to the elections through a prosecutorial investigation, has just lost his position, and Donald Tusk has been left with a divided electorate. And the reconstruction in no way solves the problem that – it must be honestly admitted, due to its own fault – the leader of the Civic Coalition has now. And there is no good way out of this situation."
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art42765171-michal-szuldrzynski-nowy-sondaz-pokazuje-co-dzis-jest-najwiekszym-zrodlem-bolu-glowy-donalda-tuska

-- NASK AND THE MINISTRY OF DIGITAL AFFAIRS ARE SILENT ABOUT ATTACKS ON MOBYWATEL – JANUSZ CIESZYŃSKI: "It is sad that these absurdities are only being denied by the opposition so far. There is no reaction from the Deputy Prime Minister responsible for cybersecurity, no mention on the official profile of the Ministry of Digital Affairs, and NASK, which takes millions to "fight disinformation," is silent. Why is this happening? Because Gierytowski's terror has trained its victims – do you dare to object, and God forbid, protest? You will find a torrent of hate under every post. They will slander you, your achievements, and your family. As always, as ruthlessly as with impunity. Don't believe me? Ask Michał Gramatyka."
https://x.com/jciesz/status/1949901034870198680

-- THE DEPUTY MINISTER OF DIGITAL AFFAIRS SPEAKS, THE MINISTER OF DIGITAL AFFAIRS AND NASK DO NOT: "Undermining trust in mObywatel is an act harmful to the Polish state – I don't know how one can be so sick with hatred to spread such revelations on the internet."
https://x.com/McGramat/status/1949904482395181327

-- MOTYKA'S NEW MINISTRY OF ENERGY IS EMPTY – ANALYZES ANNA TRZECIAKOWSKA: "As of today, we have a flawed ministry – without RES, without full control over heating, without transformational funds from the NFOŚiGW and without executive power. It's unlikely to get better, because the world's best minister, Kloska, has already announced that she will not give up MKiŚ, OZE, or NFOŚ, after which she presented an "improved" version of the National Energy and Climate Plan (KPEiK) – without the participation of BezMinister Motyka. It's a bit of a shame, because he will ultimately be the one implementing this KPEiK and responsible for it. The wrangling continues, and no one is thinking about a dramatic increase in heating prices, scandalous insertions into wind energy laws, green certificate regulations that are killing industry, the fight to change absurd EU green directives like ETS2, and other minor issues."

-- AND THE REACTOR MARIA IS STILL STANDING – TRZECIAKOWSKA'S CONCLUSION: "It's good that at least the Prime Minister's press conference went well – as always. Oh, and reactor Maria is still standing."
https://x.com/AnnaTrzeciakow3/status/1949920887811297466

-- THE MINISTER OF CULTURE IS WRITING NEW RULES OF ECONOMICS - IT TURNED OUT THAT CONSUMERS WILL NOT FEEL THE NEW SMARTPHONE TAX! "The reprographic fee is not a tax, consumers will not feel it, and 100% of the money obtained this way from producers and importers of devices will go to Polish artists. To POLISH ARTISTS, instead of to big techs, which I emphasize particularly strongly for the traditionally hysterical right-wing."
https://x.com/MartaCienkowska/status/1949918573477953898

-- BIRTHDAYS: Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz turns 64, Sebastian Kaleta, Rafał Jurkowlaniec, Michał Olszański.