state of play: 05/15/2025

STATE OF PLAY: Zandberg's Momentum Continues Strong into Campaign Finale, Słowik and Jadczak: NASK Misinformed, White House Confirms Nawrocki's Role in Chip Matters

Łukasz Mężyk

— ONE MILLION VIEWS IN 12 HOURS – STANOWSKI WITH RYMANOWSKI:
https://www.youtube.com/live/zlZVftKglCE?si=raY_nsMO17RcPpl9

— AND OVER 300 THOUSAND ON BOGDAN RYMANOWSKI'S CHANNEL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4vybLWY1Vw

— OVER 9 MILLION COLLECTED, BUT 6 MILLION PLN STILL NEEDED FOR IGNAS'S FUNDRAISER: https://www.siepomaga.pl/ratuj-ignasia

— EVEN LARGER CROWDS THAN IN RECORD-BREAKING WROCLAW FOR ADRIAN ZANDBERG'S RALLY IN KRAKOW:
https://x.com/MateuszMerta/status/1922727569591255119

— ZANDBERG'S SUPPORTERS FILLED THE ENTIRE SMALL MARKET SQUARE IN KRAKOW:
https://x.com/millusinsky/status/1922713053079933074

— MOST LIKELY TO CHANGE THEIR DECISION ARE VOTERS FOR TRZECIA DROGA (THIRD WAY) – UCE RESEARCH FOR ONET: Among them, 32.9% indicated such an answer ("definitely yes" — 9%; "rather yes" — 23.9%). The "rather no" option was chosen by 38.8% of respondents, and "definitely no" — by 16.4%. The answer "I don't know/hard to say" was indicated by 11.9% in this group.
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/wybory/wybory-prezydenckie/jest-nowy-sondaz-prezydencki-polacy-rozwazaja-zmiane-decyzji-w-ostatniej-chwili/887nm3z

— CBOS SHOWS HISTORICALLY HIGHEST RATINGS FOR RAZEM: 6%, KO-PIS DRAW, AND STABLE 16% FOR KONFEDERACJA SINCE FEBRUARY: https://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/flashe_tekst.php?nr=29/2025

— ZANDBERG ON THE SECOND ROUND: THIS CAN BE GIVEN AS A WEDEL CAKE, NOT VOTERS AND THEIR SUPPORT – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/05/15/

— FOR A YEAR, KONFEDERACJA WAS THE ONLY CLEAR OPPOSITIONAL FORCE TO THIS GOVERNMENT, APART FROM PIS. THEY CATERED TO PEOPLE ANGRY AND DISAPPOINTED WITH TUSK, AND AS IT TURNS OUT, THAT HAS NOW ENDED – ADRIAN ZANDBERG IN AN INTERVIEW WITH JAKUB BODZIONY IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “I think the reason for Mentzen's rising ratings wasn't particularly tied to his words or a package of beliefs. There's a lot of our fault in this. For a year, Konfederacja was the only clear opposition force to this government, besides Law and Justice. They catered to people angry and disappointed with Donald Tusk, while also being averse to Jarosław Kaczyński. And I'm talking about our responsibility here, because Razem took so long to make a clear decision to move to opposition, which gave Confederates a very comfortable situation. As it turns out, that has now ended – the air is coming out of Sławomir Mentzen's balloon. They are not the only ones in opposition to the PO and PiS establishment that has ruled Poland for twenty years.”

— RAZEM IS EFFECTIVELY MOVING AWAY FROM THIS SERVILISTIC WAY OF DOING POLITICS – ZANDBERG CONTINUES WITH BODZIONY: “I think for too long the left wanted to be the most well-behaved student in class. The kind who wouldn't accidentally offend anyone and wouldn't properly bang their hand on the table. That was a mistake, and I think Razem is effectively moving away from this servilistic way of doing politics.”

— THE ENTIRE RULING MAJORITY ADOPTED A BUDGET LAST YEAR THAT IS SHORT 20 BILLION ZLOTYCH FOR THE NORMAL FUNCTIONING OF HOSPITALS. WE COULD NOT ACCEPT THAT – ZANDBERG CONTINUES WITH BODZIONY IN KL: “The primary reference point in these elections is the policy of the current authorities. There are three candidates who support this government: Rafał Trzaskowski, Szymon Hołownia, and Magdalena Biejat. I have been disappointed by this policy, and it is contrary to what we promised our voters a year and a half ago. The entire ruling majority adopted a budget last year that is short 20 billion zlotych for the normal functioning of hospitals. We could not accept that.”

— I HEAR THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE RIGHT, THEY OFTEN DESCRIBE THEIR VIEWS AS SIMPLY "PATRIOTIC." AND FOR ME, THAT'S OKAY, I'M NOT GOING TO LET MYSELF BE CONFINED TO A DRYING-UP PUDDLE CALLED "VOTERS OF THE LATE 'LEWICA' ELECTORAL COMMITTEE" BECAUSE POLAND IS MUCH LARGER – ZANDBERG FURTHER STATES: “I am interested in pro-social, freedom-oriented public policy, not in parading symbols. In the campaign, I meet people who agree with what I say about investments, women's rights, or healthcare, but would never consider themselves left-wing. I hear they are closer to the right, they often describe their views as simply "patriotic." And for me, that's okay, let's talk about how we understand patriotism. We in Razem understand patriotism as caring for the common good and discussing concrete solutions. Politics is not black and white. And I am not going to let myself be confined to a drying-up puddle called "Voters of the late 'Lewica' Electoral Committee" because Poland is much larger.”

— I HAVE NO INTENTION OF ACTING AS A MANNEQUIN AT CONFERENCES WITH DONALD TUSK, WHO HAPPENS TO ANNOUNCE A PROGRAM BASED ON HIS LATEST SURVEYS – ZANDBERG FURTHER: “I have no intention of acting as a mannequin at conferences with Donald Tusk, who happens to announce a program based on his latest focus group surveys. Similarly, I am not interested in being a decorated minister who can do nothing but smile and say everything is great.”

— I WILL NOT PRETEND THAT EVERYTHING IS FINE IN SMILING POLAND. BECAUSE FROM THESE FALSE SMILES AND SAYING THAT EVERYTHING IS GREAT, NOTHING WILL CHANGE – ZANDBERG'S CONCLUSION: “I will not pretend that everything is fine in smiling Poland. Because from these false smiles and saying that everything is great, nothing will change. Change in politics comes from hope, mutual care, but also from anger. And this anger must be allowed to be transformed by people into action.”
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2025/05/13/adrian-zandberg-wywiad-bylismy-za-grzeczni-czas-przekuc-gniew-w-dzialanie-wywiad/

— THAT'S TRUE... – PATRYK SŁOWIK ON HOŁOWNIA'S WORDS THAT ANY ATTEMPT TO INTERFERE IN THE ELECTIONS SHOULD BE THOROUGHLY INVESTIGATED:
https://x.com/PatrykSlowik/status/1922917678911496396

— IT'S NOT THE RUSSIANS INFLUENCING ELECTIONS IN POLAND WITH POLITICAL ADVERTISEMENTS ON FACEBOOK, AS WAS SUGGESTED YESTERDAY. IT'S THE AUSTRIAN-HUNGARIAN BUSINESS PARTNER OF AKCJA DEMOKRACJA, A FOUNDATION CLOSE TO THE CURRENT RULERS, TO WHOM PEOPLE FROM AKCJA DEMOKRACJA HELPED – SŁOWIK CONTINUES:
https://x.com/PatrykSlowik/status/1922919133647139045

— SZYMON JADCZAK: It is the Akcja Demokracja foundation, whose president just a few weeks ago was an assistant to a Civic Platform MP, and a Hungarian/Austrian company Estratos are behind SUSPICIOUS advertisements supporting Rafał Trzaskowski and attacking Karol Nawrocki and Sławomir Mentzen. Over 400,000 PLN of UNKNOWN origin was spent on them. The state institute NASK, which should be tracking disinformation online, MISINFORMED in this matter. And a few days ago, NASK boasted about a meeting with the president of Akcja Demokracja participating.
https://x.com/SzJadczak/status/1922918474776486301

— THE POLITICAL ADVERTISEMENTS PUBLISHED ONLINE PROMOTING RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI AND ATTACKING HIS COMPETITORS ARE BACKED BY AN EMPLOYEE AND VOLUNTEERS OF THE AKCJA DEMOKRACJA FOUNDATION – ACCORDING TO INFORMATION FROM WIRTUALNA POLSKA. ITS PRESIDENT IS A PERSON WHO, UNTIL A FEW WEEKS AGO, WAS AN ASSISTANT TO A CIVIC COALITION MP – PATRYK SŁOWIK AND SZYMON JADCZAK IN WP.

— NASK DID NOT RESPOND WHY IT MISLED THE PUBLIC OPINION – SŁOWIK AND JADCZAK CONTINUE: “On Wednesday, NASK incorrectly reported that advertisements from two suspicious profiles were blocked on Facebook after its intervention. As we learned from Meta, nothing was blocked. The paid campaign had simply come to an end. NASK did not respond to us why it misled the public opinion. Meta also informed that "the administrator associated with these pages [Wiesz Jak Nie Jest and Stół Dorosłych] has confirmed their identity and is located in Poland. We have not found any evidence of foreign interference.”

— SŁOWIK AND JADCZAK ON THE HUNGARIAN CONNECTION IN AN AUSTRIAN COMPANY: “The full name of the company indicated by representatives of Akcja Demokracja is Estratos Digital GmbH, based in Vienna. Until 2023, it operated under the name Datadat. It is headed by two Hungarians: Ádám Ficsor (Minister for Special Services in Gordon Bajnai's left-wing government, i.e., from the era before Viktor Orbán) and Viktor Szigetvari. Estratos Digital specializes in digital political marketing and campaigns, with a particular focus on online fundraising. As the company itself claims, it supports progressive political initiatives, social movements, NGOs (non-governmental organizations), and civic campaigns. The company offers digital tools for engaging supporters, analyzing data, and conducting online election campaigns.”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/ujawniamy-ingerencja-w-wybory-spoty-bez-autora-i-akcja-demokracja

— WILL KAROL NAWROCKI FOLLOW IN DONALD TRUMP'S FOOTSTEPS? – TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ: “The vast majority of Poles believe that the so-called housing affair will harm Karol Nawrocki in his fight for the presidency. The paradox is that election polls do not unequivocally confirm this. (...) Therefore, is Nawrocki "unsinkable" and will he follow the path of Donald Trump, who, despite numerous attacks, lawsuits, and attempts at political elimination, has likely managed to win the election? Nawrocki shows remarkable resilience to blows, which he can return to his opponents. However, the second round will have a different logic. It will not be the hardline electorates that decide the choice of president, but the voters of their counter-candidates. For many of them, who do not follow politics closely, the housing affair could be a key impulse not to vote for Nawrocki.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art42281651-tomasz-pietryga-czy-karol-nawrocki-pojdzie-sladami-donalda-trumpa

— WHITE HOUSE CONFIRMS NAWROCKI'S ROLE IN CHIP MATTERS: https://x.com/RepublikaTV/status/1922737624235598027

— BIRTHDAYS: Jerzy Jachowicz, James Shotter, Paula Sawicka.


Łukasz Mężyk