state of play: 05/02/2025
— TRUMP ON STATUS OF TALKS WITH UKRAINE: If an agreement is not reached, we will give Zelenskyy a lot. We will give him more than he has ever received. The US agreement on minerals guarantees new arms supplies, including air defense systems.
https://x.com/dwolosiuk/status/1918196100806181140
— MAREK WAŁKUSKI FROM POLISH RADIO: Anyone who noticed that Nawrocki was sitting next to Trump's spokeswoman Caroline Leavitt and White House Communications Director Steven Cheung surely refrained from downplaying the significance of this visit. Leavitt and Cheung belong to Trump's inner circle.
https://x.com/Marekwalkuski/status/1918181485573509583
— THE WHITE HOUSE TWEET FEATURING TRUMP AND NAWROCKI ALREADY HAS OVER A MILLION VIEWS, while those from the Rose Garden ceremony have around 250,000:
https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/1918096389495554350
— “I WAS ASKED IF IT WAS FAKE THAT TUSK AIMED A REPLICA PISTOL AT TRUMP'S BACK.” NAWROCKI IN THE USA – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/05/02
— THE RULING CAMP IS DISCUSSING WHETHER TO ORGANIZE AN ADDITIONAL SEJM SESSION IN AUGUST. THIS IS TO FAST-TRACK BILLS FOR THE NEW PRESIDENT – IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE TRZASKOWSKI – GRZEGORZ OSIECKI AND TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK IN MONEY.PL: “The ruling camp is discussing whether to organize an additional Sejm session in August. This is to fast-track bills for the new president – assuming it is Rafał Trzaskowski or another candidate associated with the coalition. This could mean that MPs won’t go on holiday as planned. (…) If you want a 'wow' effect, it's natural that right after the inauguration, about 10 draft laws should land on the president's desk – one of the Civic Platform politicians tells us. (…) We hear that Donald Tusk may consider shortening the parliamentary recess to quickly vote on certain matters – admits a government source.”
— MPS WILL SOON BE COMPLAINING THAT THEIR HOLIDAY TRIPS ARE ALREADY BOOKED. BESIDES, FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE NAWROCKI WILL WIN, SO THERE'S NOTHING TO CONSIDER – ASSESSES A PSL POLITICIAN – OSIECKI AND ŻÓŁCIAK CONTINUE IN MONEY: “Representatives of the other coalition parties approach the topic with reservation. – I wouldn't rule it out, but it's rather unlikely, knowing the desire to work among our Civic Platform colleagues. Soon, MPs will be complaining that their holiday trips are already booked. Besides, for now, it looks like Nawrocki will win, so there's nothing to consider – assesses a PSL politician.”
https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/poslowie-nie-pojada-na-urlop-niewykluczona-ustawowa-ofensywa-tusk-moze-rozwazac-7151356439948032a.html
— THEY EVEN FAWN OVER SŁAWOMIR MENTZEN’S ELECTORATE FROM KONFEDERACJA, AND TREAT SZYMON HOŁOWNIA LIKE A STUBBORN AND OVERSENSITIVE CHILD WHO CANNOT BE TOUCHED WITH A SINGLE WORD – JACEK GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK: “The PiS candidate (Lech Kaczyński) then courted Andrzej Lepper (who was third with 15%), bargained for his support, and won in the second round. And Tusk attacked Kaczyński for not being disgusted by an alliance with Lepper. Prof. Jarosław Flis from Jagiellonian University: – Pointing out that Lech Kaczyński was supported by Andrzej Lepper was a suicidal move by Tusk. Today, Rafał Trzaskowski does not want to make that mistake. Neither does Donald Tusk. They even fawn over Sławomir Mentzen’s electorate from Konfederacja, and treat Szymon Hołownia like a stubborn and oversensitive child who cannot be touched with a single word. Is a repeat of 2005 and Lech Kaczyński still possible despite this? – It is still possible – says Jarosław Flis. – Just as Donald Tusk made significant mistakes in 2005, Rafał Trzaskowski also makes them. Trzaskowski learned a lesson in humility quite early, in Końskie, and humility always helps in elections. In the second round, the competition will be evenly matched – adds the political scientist from Jagiellonian University.”
— THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE POLL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TRZASKOWSKI AND NAWROCKI IN THE FIRST ROUND IS STARTING TO APPROACH THE MARGIN OF STATISTICAL ERROR – GĄDEK CONTINUES IN NEWSWEEK: “A KO campaign strategist on internal polls: – In the second round, changes are within the margin of error. Trzaskowski's numbers have dropped a bit, but Nawrocki isn't gaining. The problem is that the poll difference between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki in the first round is starting to approach the margin of statistical error. The Mayor of Warsaw is heading towards 30%, and the PiS candidate is rising towards that level.”
— AN EVENTUAL ELECTORAL DEFEAT FOR TRZASKOWSKI WOULD MEAN THE END OF THE ENTIRE “OCTOBER 15TH COALITION” – GĄDEK AGAIN: “An eventual electoral defeat for Trzaskowski would mean the end of the power of the entire 'October 15th coalition'. So, even in their infighting, candidates from this camp show restraint. The boundary beyond which no candidate from the ruling coalition will attack Trzaskowski will be the first round. After that, Hołownia and Biejat will be like Andrzej Lepper in 2005 – together they might have as much support as the late leader of Self-Defense gained then. Their votes will most likely transfer to Rafał Trzaskowski in the second round of the presidential contest. But even that does not guarantee victory for the Mayor of Warsaw.”
— SO NOT ONLY CAN TRZASKOWSKI LOSE THEM, BUT TUSK CAN ALSO LOSE THEM FOR TRZASKOWSKI – PROF. JAROSŁAW FLIS QUOTED BY GĄDEK: “Flis: – You can always lose elections that seemed won. Human folly and ineptitude are not limited by resources. Not only can Trzaskowski lose them, but Tusk can also lose them for Trzaskowski. On the other hand, Jarosław Kaczyński can always help the competition.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/trzaskowski-moze-przegrac-z-efektem-leppera-chca-go-uniknac-za-wszelka-cene/xhtvdrh,452ad802
— SO THERE WOULD BE NOTHING SHOCKING IF NAWROCKI CAME IN FIRST IN THE FIRST ROUND – PROF. JACEK RACIBORSKI IN AN INTERVIEW WITH PAP: “By the same token — said the professor — Trzaskowski's ratings have slightly decreased and are currently at the level of Civic Coalition's ratings; likewise, the results for Mentzen, Hołownia, and Biejat oscillate around the ratings of the parties supporting them. – So there would be nothing shocking if Nawrocki came in first in the first round, because now it's clear to see that party affiliations are decisive, even in presidential elections — said Professor Raciborski.”
— PROFESSOR RACIBORSKI BELIEVES THAT THE STRENGTHENING OF BIEJAT, THE STEADY PERFORMANCE OF HOŁOWNIA, AND ZANDBERG, COULD PARADOXICALLY BE BENEFICIAL FOR TRZASKOWSKI – CONTINUES PAP QUOTED BY BUSINESS INSIDER: “Professor Raciborski believes that the strengthening of Biejat, the steady performance of Hołownia, and Zandberg, could paradoxically be beneficial for Trzaskowski. – The transfer of these voters in the second round, gains from Mentzen's electorate, and the mobilization of those voters who did not vote in the first round because they were disappointed by the Coalition's rule but still dislike PiS — all of this should be enough for Trzaskowski's ultimate victory — assessed the expert.”
https://businessinsider.com.pl/polityka/bedzie-niespodzianka-juz-w-pierwszej-turze-oto-usrednione-dane-z-ostatnich-sondazy/kff3p8h
— LESZEK BALCEROWICZ ON INSTAGRAM FOR: In total, this is an intellectual disgrace, because precision and common sense should be expected from politicians. Here we have neither precision nor common sense. At the same time, not a single word in Donald Tusk's statement can be found regarding the authentic problems of the Polish economy.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DJHds_Etbwq/?igsh=MTd5azlhZHlsZnR3cw==
— BIRTHDAYS: Paweł Reszka, Piotr Müller (37), Seweryn Blumsztajn, Mika Brzezinski, SATURDAY, MAY 3: Włodzimierz Czarzasty, Aleksandra Gieros, Czesław Bielecki, Kazimierz Plocke, Marcelina Zawisza, Andrew Nagorski. SUNDAY, MAY 4: Wojciech Mucha, Ryszard Zbrzyzny, Grzegorz Cydejko, Andrzej Kania, Piotr Tyma, Maciej Orzechowski.
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