state of play: 03/12/2025
— CZARNEK: A WARM WELCOME THIS MORNING TO ALL THOSE WHO SPOKE OF TRUMPA'S TREACHERY TOWARDS UKRAINE – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/03/12
— ESTABLISHED TRADITIONS OF THE POLISH LEFT TO LISTEN TO NO ONE? – MICHAŁ KAMIŃSKI IN HIS PODCAST: “I won’t make malicious remarks about whom the Polish left has listened to for 45 years. In relations between America and Poland in free Poland, it was the Polish left that sent soldiers to war in Afghanistan and Iraq. The infamous CIA prisons, if they existed in Poland, were also under the rule of the left, which Gawkowski represents. The left seeking confrontation with Americans is inappropriate at this time. We have quite a few minefields in these relations. Why should the ruling camp, and I hope Tusk's statement indicates reflection, provoke Donald Trump before the presidential elections in Poland, I completely don't understand.”
— I SPOKE OF THE DIABOLICAL IDEA OF BRINGING BARACK OBAMA TO POLAND – MICHAŁ KAMIŃSKI CONTINUES: “Obama is to come to Poland in early May. And this is another provocation directed at Trump. Who Obama will help in Poland on the eve of the presidential elections, I cannot imagine who could have come up with this idea and thought it was a good one. Duda took an invitation to the USA for Trump, and it may turn out, and it is very probable, that Trump will come to Poland before the presidential elections. Today, we must behave in such a way that we do not invite anyone to Poland to interfere in our affairs before the elections.”
— NORMAL PEOPLE DO NOT WANT US TO ARGUE WITH TRUMP TODAY – MICHAŁ KAMIŃSKI CONTINUES: “It is in Poland's interest to live well with Trump and the USA, and we should not be looking for any provocative topics today.”
https://youtu.be/Zwgov18k1q4?si=otBBjaSvIRBo5q-s
— OVER 60% OF POLES BELIEVE THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE TO THE TRANSATLANTIC OPTION. AND THAT, CONTINUOUSLY, WITH THE DOMINANT ROLE OF THE UNITED STATES, IN WHOSE STRENGTH 85% OF RESPONDENTS BELIEVE – RAFAŁ KALUKIN AND MARCIN DUMA DESCRIBE THE IBRIS SURVEY FOR TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Over 60% of Poles believe that there is no alternative to the transatlantic option. And that, continuously, with the dominant role of the United States, in whose strength 85% of respondents believe. The percentage appreciating the military potential of European countries is half as low, with Great Britain (48%) and France (43%) performing relatively best, while Germany (36%) fares worse.”
— THUS, THE THESIS POPULAR IN JOURNALISM, THAT PIS BACKED THE WRONG HORSE AND IT WOULD BE BEST FOR THEM TO RETREAT LIKE A CRAB FROM SUCH A FAR-REACHING IDENTIFICATION WITH THE TROUBLESOME REPUBLICAN, FINDS NO CONFIRMATION – KALUKIN AND DUMA FURTHER, BASED ON IBRIS SURVEYS: “Among this group, supporters of the view that Trump strengthens our security prevail (57%). Thus, the thesis popular in journalism, that PiS backed the wrong horse and it would be best for them to retreat like a crab from such a far-reaching identification with the troublesome Republican, finds no confirmation. Apparently, a slight distancing is enough, but without breaking the ideological bond. Unless this is not the end of the surprises that the Trump administration has in store for us.”
— TRZASKOWSKI 35.7
NAWROCKI 22.3
MENTZEN 15
HOŁOWNIA 7
BIEJAT 5
ZANDBERG 2.4
BRAUN 17,
STANOWSKI 1.4
JAKUBIAK 1.2
UNDEC. 9
(IBRIS, March 4-5)
— TRZASKOWSKI'S POTENTIAL HAS SHRUNK BY 6 PERCENTAGE POINTS SINCE JANUARY – DUMA AND KALUKIN CONTINUE: “Trzaskowski is no longer looking so rosy, as in the best case scenario he can count on just under 40% in the first round. And this means he has no significant reserves left and, above all, is forced to defend his result. His potential has also shrunk by 6 percentage points since January. He is also the only candidate to have increased his negative electorate, which currently stands at 46.5%. Although his rivals are still more burdened in this regard.”
— MENTZEN HAS NO BIG HOPES FOR A CLOSE CONTEST FOR NOW – CLAIM KALUKIN AND DUMA: “Nawrocki's potential has also shrunk, currently standing at 31%. This is roughly the size of PiS's electorate, without even a trace of a 'civic' surplus. On the other hand, we estimate Mentzen's ceiling at 20%, which for now does not offer much hope for a close contest.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2292369,1,sondaz-polityki-i-ibris-kampania-w-cieniu-trumpa-swiat-zatrzesie-polskimi-wyborami.read
— ACCORDING TO THE UNITED SURVEYS POLL FOR WIRTUALNA POLSKA, MOST POLES WOULD VOTE FOR THE CURRENT MAYOR OF WARSAW, RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI, IN THE FIRST ROUND:
TRZASKOWSKI 35.9 (+1.8)
NAWROCKI 27.1 (+1.4)
MENTZEN 19.4 (+3.2)
HOŁOWNIA 3.7 (-3.6)
ZANDBERG 3.1 (+2.1)
BIEJAT 2.1 (-2.3)
BRAUN 1.1 (+0.5)
JAKUBIAK 0.9 (-1.8)
UNDECIDED 6.8
(March 7-9, 2025, using a mixed CAWI & CATI method on a representative sample of 1000 people).
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/kto-wygra-wybory-w-wyscigu-liczy-sie-tylko-trzech-kandydatow-7133681984494528a
— THE GOVERNMENT DID LESS THAN ORIGINALLY ANNOUNCED – PAWEŁ ROCHOWICZ, PIOTR SZYMANIAK, PAULINA SZEWIOŁA IN RZ: “However, the government did not take away the tax authority's tool that allows them to harass taxpayers with accusations of alleged offenses and extend the period for collecting duties.”
https://pro.rp.pl/abc-firmy/art41909471-deregulacja-rzad-chce-zdjac-ciezary-z-firm-ale-zrobil-mniej-niz-pierwotnie-zapowiadal
— THE INTRODUCTION OF A DIGITAL TAX WILL BE PERCEIVED BY AMERICANS AS AN ATTACK – JAKUB SZYMCZAK IN OKO.PRESS: “The reaction of the future US ambassador to Poland – far from diplomatic style – shows that Americans will perceive the potential introduction of a digital tax as an attack. And words about a 'model ally,' as Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth called us during his visit to Warsaw, will have no significance. Nor will the fact that we are a NATO leader in defense spending relative to GDP.”
— FROM THE OECD AGREEMENT TO TRUMP'S RETURN, WE HAD OVER TWO MORE YEARS OF PIS RULE AND OVER A YEAR OF DONALD TUSK'S COALITION GOVERNMENT – JAKUB SZYMCZAK CONTINUES IN OKO: “On his first day in office, Donald Trump issued a memorandum announcing his withdrawal from the OECD agreement. Thus, there was a window of time when changes could be introduced without aggressive lectures from across the ocean. When PiS spoke about a digital tax, the first Trump administration silenced us. From the OECD agreement to Trump's return, we had over two more years of PiS rule and over a year of Donald Tusk's coalition government. During that time, resolving this issue would have been simpler. Poland does not have to listen to the USA, of course. But judging by the statements of, for example, Minister Pełczyńska-Nałęcz, a part of the government considers the Americans' opposition to be a problem.”
https://oko.press/podatek-cyfrowy-gawkowski-usa-bigtech
— PIS IS AGAINST THE DIGITAL TAX AT THIS MOMENT AND IN THIS FORM – GRZEGORZ OSIECKI AND TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK IN WP: “Zbigniew Kuźmiuk from PiS critically assesses the above ideas. The EU is working on a tax for the digital sector, and if it is to make sense, it should be introduced throughout the Union, not in one country, because then it will be circumvented. This tax means entering into conflict with the USA, and if we are to do so, it should be done at the European level. Why antagonize the situation by proposing an ineffective solution? – asks the PiS MP.”
— GAWKOWSKI PROBABLY JUST THREW THAT OUT BECAUSE HE WAS JEALOUS OF SIKORSKI'S PUBLICITY – OSIECKI AND ŻÓŁCIAK'S CONTACT FROM THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE: “- We don't know what concept Deputy Prime Minister Gawkowski is talking about. He probably just threw that out because he was jealous of Sikorski's publicity after his famous post about Starlink – states our contact from the Ministry of Finance. In his opinion, this is an irresponsible move by the head of the digitalization ministry. – Given the tense international situation, such a statement should have been reserved as an element of negotiation or pressure, not so casually thrown out – argues the money.pl interlocutor.”
https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/bitwa-o-podatek-cyfrowy-co-z-ustawa-jak-duzy-zysk-oto-kulisy-7134008795880064a.html
— BIRTHDAYS: Janina Ochojska, Leszek Czarnobaj, Thomas Orchowski, Grzegorz Witkowski.
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