state of play: 02/05/2025
— WIPLER: WHERE TWO FIGHT, THE THIRD PROFITS – AND RIGHT NOW, THAT THIRD IS MENTZEN – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/02/05/
— KONFEDERACJA HAS MORE THAN DOUBLE THE SUPPORT OF TRZECIA DROGA – AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “KO is once again ahead of PiS in the latest party poll by the Opinia24 research firm. But Donald Tusk’s current coalition partners are weakening, while Kaczyński’s potential future coalition partners are gaining.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31666295,sondaz-opinia24-nbsp-konfederacja-ma-juz-ponad-dwa-razy-wyzsze.html
— COMMON SENSE ON THE OFFENSIVE. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT MOMENT IN THE ELECTION BATTLE HAS JUST OCCURRED – MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “It is difficult to say today whether this new message from Trzaskowski will be effective in the coming weeks, but for now, it seems to have shown its effectiveness. The KO candidate is also favored by the surprisingly weak campaign of Nawrocki so far, who has an experienced team with contacts in the USA. Nawrocki is caught making simple inaccuracies, for example, when he says that during his visit to Nowogrodzka street, he didn’t meet anyone from the PiS leadership, and shortly thereafter, Jarosław Kaczyński himself states at a press conference that he spoke with the candidate at the time.”
— NAWROCKI CAN STILL WAKE UP – JANICKI CONTINUES IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “However, the ‘civic candidate’ can still wake up and get his act together. He is about to present his program, new persuasion techniques will be implemented, and various hooks may not sink him, because electorates, like politicians, play for the whole pot in their own way; they have become armored. The political division in Poland has probably never been so deep. Every opportunity will be used, as the example of Barbara Nowacka’s slip of the tongue with the unfortunate ‘Polish Nazis’ shows. PiS politicians pretend to believe that she truly thinks, for example, that Poles are responsible for Auschwitz. This campaign will therefore be ruthless; it is just getting going now.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2287879,1,rozsadek-w-natarciu-w-batalii-wyborczej-nastapil-wlasnie-pierwszy-istotny-moment
— IT IS HARD TO RESIST THE IMPRESSION THAT IN 2025, THE DEFENDERS OF DEMOCRACY ARE INTELLECTUALLY LOOKING TOO MUCH INTO THE PAST AND TOO LITTLE INTO THE FUTURE – JAROSŁAW KUISZ IN INTERIA: “For now, however, there is a great deal of cosmetic work being done on a party that doesn’t want to appear too extremist. The elections at the end of February could bring us an unpleasant surprise. Well, I wouldn’t mind my concerns being unfounded. However, it is hard to resist the impression that in 2025, the defenders of democracy are intellectually looking too much into the past and too little into the future.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-mur-dokola-niemiec,nId,7905770
— IT SEEMS THAT MANY LIBERAL DEMOCRATS HAVE NOT WAKEN FROM THEIR COMPLACENCY, EVEN IF THEY ARE LOSING ELECTIONS – KAROLINA WIGURA DURING A DEBATE IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “I would like to express my concern about what must happen to the patient for them to be able to listen? I ask because it seems that many liberal democrats have not woken from their complacency, even if they are losing elections. Do they have to hit rock bottom to begin the democratization of liberalism you spoke of?”
— DANISH POLITICS HAS BEEN COPYING POPULISM FOR YEARS TO SPARE DENMARK FROM A POPULIST GOVERNMENT – WIGURA CONTINUES IN KL: “Danish politics has been copying populism for years to spare Denmark from a populist government. And it is a very effective strategy. It is certainly worth considering. However, there is a difference between populist form and populist content. One can use a populist form, like Lula, Tusk, or Mette Frederiksen. But populist content is something completely different. It is about an authoritarian character, about destroying the rule of law. And a liberal politician must not do that. So I think it’s more complicated.”
— POPULISM IS ALSO A REACTION TO THE CLOSURE OF LIBERAL ELITES – WIGURA FURTHER IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “I think populism is one of the reactions to how difficult our era is to digest. To how difficult it is to cope with galloping change. This is precisely what populism is. Populism is also a reaction to the closure of liberal elites. It is a very common moral reaction to the impasse in liberal debate. Alan mentioned abortion. I think every country has a list of topics about which there is an impasse. Abortion is one of them. And there is frustration associated with the fact that these topics are not treated seriously enough. There is also a political aspect, turning collective frustration into populist politics, which I call ‘populist content’. I wanted to add something, delighted that my garden metaphor is growing so much during this discussion. Gardening is also about giving life and care. It is love. Extremely important qualities for society. It’s about emotions. Gardening is also joy. And I think that can also be part of liberal politics. Escaping from fear without joy is not enough.”
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2025/02/04/populisci-wzieli-to-o-czym-my-nie-chcielismy-mowic-zapis-debaty/
— DONALD TUSK FOLLOWS SOCIAL MOODS. AND IS NOW SPEAKING EXACTLY LIKE PIS – JAKUB MAJMUREK IN ONE: “Donald Tusk, by adopting this particular rhetoric on migration, is following social moods, a political and social trend visible in all Western democracies.”
— THE SHIFT OF CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS TOWARDS THE RIGHT-WING POPULIST SIDE HAS NOT STOPPED THE RISE IN SUPPORT FOR THE AUSTRIAN FREEDOM PARTY – MAJMUREK CONTINUES IN ONE: “The question remains, however, how effective such a tactic will be politically? Will the attempt to take over the radicals’ themes strengthen them, legitimizing extreme parties in the eyes of voters? This is what happened in Austria: the shift of Christian Democrats towards the right-wing populist side did not stop the rise in support for the Austrian Freedom Party. We will see how Merz’s tactic works in Germany and how it will look in Poland.”
— IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO REBUILD GOVERNMENT SUPPORT – MAJMUREK’S CONCLUSION: “Certainly, holding PiS accountable and using harsh language on border protection – although they address the needs of numerous voter groups – will not be enough to rebuild government support. Especially after the elections, if the problem of cohabitation with a PiS president disappears, Tusk will have to offer something more, start delivering on promises, and communicate it to voters more effectively than before.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/donald-tusk-idzie-za-nastrojami-spolecznymi-i-mowi-juz-zupelnie-jak-pis-opinia/xk5rqqj,452ad802
— WE HAVE A SYSTEM OF DISCRIMINATION, EXPLOITATION, AND ABUSE OF PEOPLE FROM UKRAINE – JACEK CZAPUTOWICZ IN RZ: “It is worth repeating endlessly that it is not Poles who finance refugees from Ukraine, but Ukrainians who finance the development and prosperity of Poles. Meanwhile, a system of discrimination, exploitation, and abuse of the social group formed by refugees from Ukraine is being created in our country. (…) They contribute to the state budget in the form of taxes and contributions to the NFZ and ZUS amounting to PLN 15 billion, while the 800+ program for Ukrainian children costs the budget PLN 2.8 billion. It is worth repeating endlessly that it is not Poles who finance refugees from Ukraine, but Ukrainians who finance the development of our country and the prosperity of Poles.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41765331-jacek-czaputowicz-zerowanie-na-ukrainskich-dzieciach
— THE PRIMARY GOAL OF THE LEFT IS TO RETAIN VOTERS, BECAUSE IF THEY DRIFT TO RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI IN THE FIRST ROUND, IT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DEFEAT FOR THEM – ESTERA FLIEGER IN RZ: “No matter how hard the left tries, some voters they appeal to on economic matters will still support, for example, Konfederacja, which is at the extreme end of the spectrum. Electoral decisions can also be aspirational: an employee will more readily support a party addressing its message to entrepreneurs, because they also want to become one (or have been convinced they need to). So what are Nowa Lewica and Razem to do? I don’t know. The primary goal is to retain voters, because if they drift to Rafał Trzaskowski in the first round, it will be a significant defeat for them.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41765411-estera-flieger-paulina-matysiak-i-zaimki-na-lewicy-beznadziejnie-ale-stabilnie
— 3RD ANNIVERSARY OF THE DEATH (AFTER A LONG ILLNESS) OF PROF. JERZY OSIATYŃSKI, MINISTER OF FINANCE IN HANNA SUCHOCKA’S GOVERNMENT, WHO INTRODUCED VAT IN POLAND WITHOUT CHAOS, A LONG-SERVING MEMBER OF THE FINANCE COMMITTEE, AND ONE OF THE LEADING FIGURES OF THE FREEDOM UNION ENVIRONMENT.
— BIRTHDAYS: Teresa Piotrowska, Sławomir Potapowicz, Piotr Krzystek.
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