— POMASKA: TRZASKOWSKI IS NOT TO BE THE GOVERNMENT'S CANDIDATE. IT SHOULD MOTIVATE HIM – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/02/03/

— COMPARISON OF AVERAGE POLLS SHOWS TRZASKOWSKI SLOWLY LOSING HIS LEAD OVER NAWROCKI IN THE SECOND ROUND (BUT NOT THE FIRST). CUTTING BENEFITS FOR UKRAINIAN CHILDREN IS POPULAR, BUT TRIPLE-DANGEROUS: POLITICALLY, ELECTORALLY, AND ETHICALLY – PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS.

— IN NOVEMBER, TRZASKOWSKI'S LEAD WAS AN AVERAGE OF 17.7 PP, IN DECEMBER 10.9 PP, AND IN JANUARY 9 PP, WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO TRZASKOWSKI WEAKENING SLIGHTLY RATHER THAN NAWROCKI GAINING – PACEWICZ FURTHER IN OKO: “However, the January summaries, against the backdrop of December and November polls, still indicate a decreasing lead for Trzaskowski over Nawrocki, both in the first and second rounds. First-round polls show that in November, this lead averaged 17.7 percentage points, in December 10.9 percentage points, and in January 9 percentage points. This is likely due to Trzaskowski weakening slightly, rather than Nawrocki gaining. The PiS candidate peaked in popularity at the turn of the year, remains 'wooden' in his campaign, had a high-profile slip-up with the hotel affair, and cannot touch the so-called everyday struggles (prices, housing) nor capitalize on the high disappointment with the Tusk government.”

— SECOND-ROUND POLL COMPARISONS ALSO SHOW A DECLINE IN TRZASKOWSKI'S LEAD OVER NAWROCKI – PACEWICZ FURTHER IN OKO: “Second-round poll comparisons also show a decrease in Trzaskowski's lead over Nawrocki, from a massive 17.9 pp in November, through 13.3 pp in December, to 9 pp in January. Here, Nawrocki is gaining despite a poor campaign, as in the second round, the right-wing electorate votes for their own, whoever they may be.”

— POST-ELECTION EUPHORIA WOULD GIVE THE RULING PARTIES 259 SEATS IN JANUARY 2024, BUT NOW ONLY 222 – PACEWICZ FURTHER: “And now, attention! If the Sejm were elected in January 2025, the PiS and Confederation coalition, which would certainly form in such a situation, would have a majority of 238 seats. The change in the balance of power since the 2023 elections is illustrated by the chart below. As you can see, post-election euphoria would have given the ruling parties 259 seats in January 2024, but now – only 222.”

— PRESSURE NOT TO 'PICK ON' TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMPAIGN, AS IT MAY END IN ELECTORAL DEFEAT, WILL GROW, JUST AS THE PRESSURE TO SILENCE CRITICS OF THE SINGLE ELECTORAL LIST CONCEPT GREW – PACEWICZ FURTHER IN OKO.PRESS: “Is it permissible to criticize him for this? To question his effectiveness and point out the risks? The pressure not to 'pick on' Trzaskowski's campaign, as it may end in electoral defeat, will grow, just as the pressure to silence critics of the single electoral list concept grew in 2023. We were leaders of that criticism, and fortunately, the idea collapsed. In Sunday's 'Wyborcza' of February 2, Bartosz Wieliński writes, 'I can no longer listen to this whining (...) We are being picky, the candidate has moved to the right. Bad...' Whining? Or perhaps the honking that was once heard on Capitol Hill?”

— ALL OF THIS COULD SHAKE TRZASKOWSKI'S IMAGE SO MUCH THAT PART OF THE ELECTORATE WILL ASK THEMSELVES, WHO ARE WE ACTUALLY VOTING FOR – PACEWICZ'S CONCLUSION: “All of this could shake Trzaskowski's image so much that part of the electorate will ask themselves, who are we actually voting for? Just before the 2023 elections, a spark of mutual mobilization went through the network; now it could be the opposite. And it's enough if a few percent of the electorate ultimately doesn't reach the polls. This is an electoral risk.”
https://oko.press/trzaskowski-w-styczniu-przewage-traci-czy-zyskuje

— WHAT ARE POLISH DEMOCRATS DOING? THEY ARE WHINING THAT IT WON'T WORK AGAIN. I CAN'T LISTEN TO IT ANYMORE – BARTOSZ T. WIELIŃSKI IN GW: “PiS is marching in a united column towards the presidential elections to reverse the results of the last parliamentary elections. The campaign, judging by what's happening at the rallies of PiS candidate Karol Nawrocki (recently a priest suggested beating a critical intellectual), will become increasingly brutal. What are Polish democrats doing? They are whining that it won't work again. I can't listen to it anymore.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31657890,czekalismy-na-ten-jedyny-sondaz-i-wreszcie-jest-a-ja-nie-moge.html

— NOW THE MATTER HAS BEEN REDUCED TO MORAL BLACKMAIL, WHICH I DISAGREE WITH. IT IS USED BY SOME PUBLIC FIGURES OR CELEBRITIES: 'IF YOU DON'T SUPPORT REFUGEES, IT MEANS YOU ARE SIMPLY A PESTIFEROUS ANIMAL' – BARTŁOMIEJ SIENKIEWICZ IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MICHAŁ GOSTKIEWICZ IN GW: “Back then, it was like this: either as democrats, we react to mass unemployment and the drama of the pauperized middle class and propose a policy that will pull society out of crisis and desperation, or people who will not hesitate to shoot at other people and build concentration camps will do it. And such people then arrived. I cannot imagine a repeat of that time – Europe will not survive another Holocaust. Meanwhile, now the matter has been reduced to moral blackmail, which I disagree with. It is used by some public figures or celebrities: 'if you don't support refugees, it means you are simply a pestiferous animal.' I disagree with this, although I understand the moral force of the appeal.”

— REFUGEES SHOULD NOT HEAR 'HERZLICH WILLKOMMEN' FROM US, BECAUSE THEN THE AGGRESSOR WINS – SIENKIEWICZ FURTHER AT GOSTKIEWICZ'S IN GW: “Groups of twenty-year-old boys, who are not thugs but people exploited by Belarusian smugglers, are victims of the hybrid war waged against us just like Polish border guards and groups of volunteers trying to help refugees. But these refugees should not hear 'herzlich willkommen' from us because of this, because then the aggressor wins. I don't understand a situation where all the responsibility is on our side, but there is no responsibility on the part of people who, risking their own lives and their children's, decide to enter the so-called Polish jungle.”

— LET'S CALL A SPADE A SPADE: THE SOURCE OF THIS IMMIGRANT WAVE IS GERMAN POLICY PURSUED FOR YEARS – SIENKIEWICZ TELLS GOSTKIEWICZ: “Let's call a spade a spade: the source of this immigrant wave is German policy pursued for years. Money has become a lure in it for people who want to improve their lives, regardless of whether they live in Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Laos, or Saharan Africa.”

— OUR DAILY, COMMON BELIEF IN AN EFFICIENT GERMAN STATE HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH REALITY – SIENKIEWICZ FURTHER IN GW AT GOSTKIEWICZ'S: “The same Karlsruhe court ruled that criminal police cannot conduct investigations, only state police. Based on this ruling, the German police have been deprived of effective operational work. It has become an empty shell for analysis. Our daily, common belief in an efficient German state has nothing to do with reality. Something bad is happening there, and this is a very disturbing situation for us. Especially when we have such a puzzle as Donald Trump. We can imagine various scenarios for European policy towards him. But it is impossible to imagine a Europe capable of a common effort – whether towards Russia or towards America – without Germany. Germany's problems are the problems of the entire European continent.”

— IF THE COMPETENT EU BODIES CONFIRM THIS, AND THE COMMISSION FEARS MUSK AND DOES NOT IMPOSE A FINE, IT WILL CUT OFF THE BRANCH IT IS SITTING ON – CLAIMS SIENKIEWICZ: “But if Musk's algorithms spread lies or deprecate information contrary to his views, it is a deliberate action to destroy debate in a democratic state. If the competent EU bodies confirm this, and the Commission fears Musk and does not impose a fine, it will cut off the branch it is sitting on.”

— I SEE NO POINT IN PARTICIPATING IN SOCIAL MEDIA, WHICH ARE INCREASINGLY DESTROYING PUBLIC LIFE – SIENKIEWICZ FURTHER: “It can also be pieced together at the EU level, in Brussels or Strasbourg; this is my job now. I am detoxing from a certain kind of politics – I recently closed my X account, I see no point in participating in social media, which is increasingly destroying public life. Of course, I miss a good adrenaline rush a bit. What's left of the pleasures of life are coffee and cigarettes.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,31662291,bartlomiej-sienkiewicz-o-zwolennikach-trumpa-jak-karpie-teskniace.html

— IN A NEW IBRIS POLL CONDUCTED FOR ONET, RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI LEADS WITH 37.3% SUPPORT. KAROL NAWROCKI WOULD BE SECOND (23.9% OF VOTES).

— IN IBRIS FOR ONET, MENTZEN IS AHEAD OF HOŁOWNIA, 11% UNDECIDED: “The two poll leaders clearly distance themselves from the rest of the field. Third place, with 8.9% support, is Sławomir Mentzen from Confederation. Next are Szymon Hołownia from the Third Way (6.8%), journalist and businessman Krzysztof Stanowski (3%), Grzegorz Braun from Korona (1.7%), Marek Jakubiak representing Republicans (1.2%), and Adrian Zandberg from the Together party (1.1%). 11% of respondents do not know who they will vote for.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/sondaz-prezydencki-dla-onetu-jeden-kandydat-z-wyrazna-przewaga/18ncrnr,79cfc278

— MINISTER DOMAŃSKI'S OPTIMISM IS TO BE PAID FOR BY THE MIDDLE CLASS – WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “The average wage in the enterprise sector in December was PLN 8.8 thousand gross; for the year, it will likely exceed PLN 10 thousand. These are not the incomes of the richest Poles; this is what representatives of the middle class earn – typical voters of Civic Platform – and it is they who are to bear the main burden of fiscal consolidation, as well as the handouts initiated by PiS and continued by the October 15 Coalition.”

— I VERY MUCH DISLIKE IT WHEN POLITICIANS MANIPULATE STATISTICS, WHICH THE MORAWIECKI GOVERNMENT WAS SKILLED AT, INCIDENTALLY – GADOMSKI FURTHER IN GW: “I very much dislike it when politicians manipulate statistics, which the Morawiecki government was skilled at, incidentally. Politicians, especially rational ones – and I consider Andrzej Domański to be one, despite everything – should explain the complexities of economics so that as many people as possible understand them. This is in the interest of rational parties. The larger the group of voters who understand that there are no miraculous recipes for societal enrichment, and that constant government gifts – benefits, free services – are not them, the better for Poland, and also for parties with rational, not populist, programs.”

— BOASTING THAT IN THE FIRST YEAR OF THE COALITION'S GOVERNMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN IN THE FINAL PERIOD OF THE PREVIOUS GOVERNMENT MAKES NO SENSE. IT IS ALSO A MISTAKE FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE 'ART OF PROPAGANDA' – GADOMSKI FURTHER IN GW.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31660579,za-optymizm-ministra-domanskiego-ma-zaplacic-klasa-srednia.html

— KOLARSKI WILL BECOME PRESIDENTIAL MINISTER FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS, NIKODEM RACHOŃ HIS DEPUTY – ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ IN ONET: “The promotion of Nikodem Rachoń, the younger brother of Michał Rachoń from Telewizja Republika, is interesting. Rachoń was recently a press office employee – he joined in September last year. During the PiS government, young Rachoń first got a job in the state-owned company Energa, where he rose to the position of marketing and communications director, and then became press attaché at the Polish Embassy in Washington. Now Rachoń will become a presidential minister – he will be Kolarski's deputy. — Of course, this is a gesture from the president towards Telewizja Republika. But young Rachoń is well-regarded by Duda — says our interlocutor from the president's circle.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/andrzej-duda-wymieni-duza-czesc-wspolpracownikow-oto-nazwiska/5z02kyc,79cfc278

— BIRTHDAYS: Zbigniew Rau, Andrzej Kosiniak-Kamysz, Michał Kołodziejczyk, Błażej Poboży, Rafał Muchacki.