state of play: 01/24/2025

STATE OF PLAY: CBOS: Government Ratings Continue to Plummet, Szułdrzyński: Stanowski's Crusade Against Old Media Blamed for Current Political State

Łukasz Mężyk

— NEW CBOS RESEARCH: GOVERNMENT SUPPORTERS: 31% (-1).
MORAWIECKI GOVERNMENT AFTER ELECTION LOSS – NOVEMBER 2023: 32%.

— GOVERNMENT OPPONENTS: 43% (+3).
MORAWIECKI GOVERNMENT IN NOVEMBER 2023: 44%.

— ASSESSMENT OF GOVERNMENT ACTIONS: GOOD: 32% (-4), BAD 55% (+4).
MORAWIECKI GOVERNMENT IN NOVEMBER 2023 GOOD 40%, BAD 51%.

— DOES THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT'S POLICY CREATE OPPORTUNITIES FOR ECONOMIC IMPROVEMENT? YES 33% (-3), NO 56% (+4).
DEPARTING MORAWIECKI GOVERNMENT IN NOVEMBER 2023: YES 37%, NO 48%.

— SATISFACTION WITH THE PRIME MINISTER – CBOS: 35% (-1) TUSK IN JANUARY, 36% MORAWIECKI IN NOVEMBER 2024.

— DISSATISFACTION WITH THE PRIME MINISTER: 52% (-2) TUSK IN JANUARY, 53% MORAWIECKI IN NOVEMBER 2023.
https://www.cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/raporty_tekst.php?id=6951

— TRZASKOWSKI 35.5, NAWROCKI 31.7, MENTZEN 15.7, HOŁOWNIA 5, BRAUN 3, BIEJAT 3, STANOWSKI 2.5, JAKUBIAK 2, ZANDBERG 0.5 – NEW OGB POLL BY ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI: https://x.com/OGB_Pro/status/1882689689028616442

— NEW PIS SPOT ABOUT “FAKE NEWS”: “IT SEEMS THE SPOT RESEMBLES DONALD TRUMP’S CAMPAIGN STRATEGY, TRYING TO LINK MAINSTREAM MEDIA WITH THE RULING PARTY AND THUS UNDERMINE THEIR CREDIBILITY: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/01/24/machina-fake-newsow-probuje-zniszczyc-nawrockiego-szefernaker-publikuje-spot-uderzajacy-w-media/

— “HIS CHALLENGE CAN APPEAL TO DISAPPOINTED COALITION VOTERS.” BOSAK ON STANOWSKI, KAMIŃSKI: TUSK INSULTED TRUMP. AMERICANS ARE CLEARLY ENGAGING IN THE POLISH CAMPAIGN ON THE RIGHT SIDE – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/01/24

— STANOWSKI, IN REALITY, IS INITIATING A CRUSADE NOT ONLY AGAINST POLITICIANS RUNNING IN THE ELECTIONS BUT ALSO AGAINST THE OLD MEDIA, WHICH HE BLAMES FOR THE CURRENT STATE OF POLITICS – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “And Trump played on this division during his inaugural speech, announcing a revolution of common sense against the liberal establishment. But this is also the essence of the experiment that Krzysztof Stanowski announced last week, declaring his candidacy for president. Because in reality, he is initiating a crusade not only against politicians running in the elections but also against the old media, which he blames for the current state of politics. He, feeling perfectly at home in new media, with over a million followers on X and hundreds of thousands of fans on YouTube, is declaring war on the current establishment, hoping that the climate from the USA will also spread to Poland.”
https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art41718831-michal-szuldrzynski-stanowski-jak-musk-nie-chodzi-tylko-o-walke-z-establishmentem

— THIS WAS THE MAIN PROMISE OF THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION: TO REMOVE FROM POWER POLITICIANS WHO LOVED TO INCITE HATRED AGAINST FOREIGNERS, SCARE PEOPLE WITH MIGRANTS, AND ORGANIZE SPECTACLES OF HATRED. BY COMPETING WITH PIS IN ANTI-UKRAINIAN SENTIMENT, IS DONALD TUSK FULFILLING THIS PROMISE? – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “But this is a great risk. Playing the anti-Ukrainian card in an election campaign is dramatically irresponsible. The seed of animosity towards Ukrainians, once sown, will sprout, and xenophobia cannot be eradicated later. We need Ukrainians for work in Poland, and we will need good cooperation with Ukraine after the peace is concluded, as it will be our key ally in security matters. Moreover, this was the main promise of the October 15 coalition: to remove from power politicians who loved to incite hatred against foreigners, scare people with migrants, and organize spectacles of hatred. By competing with PiS in anti-Ukrainian sentiment, is Donald Tusk fulfilling this promise?”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41719741-michal-szuldrzynski-nic-co-dane-nie-bedzie-zabrane-chyba-ze-jestes-ukraincem

— SINCE WHEN ARE THE ECONOMY AND ECONOMIC PATRIOTISM, SECURITY, AND A COHESIVE POLAND RIGHT-WING ISSUES? – RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI IN AN INTERVIEW WITH BARTOSZ T. WIELIŃSKI IN GW: “Since when are the economy and economic patriotism, security, and a cohesive Poland right-wing issues? When I defended attacked minorities, people with disabilities, teachers, and women's rights, was I a left-wing politician, or perhaps I was guided by Christian values, according to which one should help the weaker and attacked? Must everyone today take shortcuts and look for simple labels?”

— LOOKING AT THE EXPERIENCES OF AUSTRIA, GERMANY, SWEDEN, I BELIEVE WE SIMPLY MUST BE CAREFUL ABOUT THE SIGNALS WE SEND OUTWARD – TRZASKOWSKI CONTINUES AT WIELIŃSKI’S IN GW: “And PiS candidate Karol Nawrocki is questioning Ukraine's European future for the sake of the election campaign. Does he perhaps prefer Ukraine to fall into Putin's hands? At the same time, however, I hear from people that Poland has helped Ukraine as much as it can, and we need to consider what's next. Looking at the experiences of Austria, Germany, and Sweden, I believe we simply must be careful about the signals we send outward.”

— I TOLD ZELENSKYY THAT ANYONE WHO DOES NOT SUPPORT UKRAINE IS ACTING AGAINST POLAND'S SECURITY – TRZASKOWSKI STATES IN GW: “Politicians must listen to people; they cannot stand aside from them, or they will lose and cede ground to populists. I don't want that to happen. I told President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that anyone who does not support Ukraine is acting against Poland's security. In Poland, we are not observing a widespread retreat from the idea of military support for Ukraine—people simply want rational policy.”

— I HELP SEXUAL MINORITIES. MY APPROACH TO WOMEN'S ISSUES HAS ALSO NOT CHANGED. IT REMAINS A PRIORITY FOR ME – TRZASKOWSKI FURTHER TELLS WIELIŃSKI: “I help sexual minorities. My approach to women's issues has also not changed. It remains a priority for me. I am in favor of liberalizing abortion law. My views are known. They are rational. Because when we talk about freedom, about the right to decide, who should decide if not a woman? What should this election campaign be about? About what people are talking about, or about what the salons are talking about and what is being discussed on X. I don't read X; I listen to people on the streets of Polish cities and villages.”

— MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI, A MILLIONAIRE, OWNER OF MANY PLOTS OF LAND, IS NOT THE SALON INTELLECTUAL, BUT I AM, WHO LIVES IN A BLOCK OF FLATS AND DRIVES A 13-YEAR-OLD CAR? AND ONLY BECAUSE I READ BOOKS, SPEAK FRENCH OR SPANISH?! – TRZASKOWSKI STILL IN GW: “Is Mateusz Morawiecki, a millionaire, owner of many plots of land, not the salon intellectual, but I am, who lives in a block of flats and drives a 13-year-old car? And only because I read books, speak French or Spanish?! Should I beat my chest and apologize for this? After all, most Polish women and men want a president who knows their job—security and foreign policy—and speaks foreign languages.”

— WE DO NOT NEED A NEW WAR AT THE TOP. BUT IF NECESSARY, I WILL REACH FOR THE VETO – TRZASKOWSKI FURTHER: “I am not a person who seeks conflict; I always look for a compromise solution. We do not need a new war at the top. But if necessary, I will reach for the veto. The president must act independently of the party. They must have a backbone.”

— I AM AN ENEMY OF ALL CENSORSHIP. WE SHOULD TEACH PEOPLE HOW TO VERIFY INFORMATION; I UNDERSTAND THE ARGUMENTS OF THOSE WHO WOULD LIKE TO RESTRICT THE USE OF SOCIAL MEDIA BY YOUNG CHILDREN – CLAIMS TRZASKOWSKI: “I am an enemy of all censorship. We should teach people how to verify information; I understand the arguments of those who would like to restrict the use of social media by young children. This should be addressed in schools. Artificial intelligence outputs should be labeled on social media platforms. But this has nothing to do with more far-reaching solutions that would actually introduce a form of censorship.”

— ANYONE WHO COMPARES NAWROCKI TO DUDA TODAY DOES NOT UNDERSTAND POLITICS. NAWROCKI NOT ONLY LACKS HIS TALENTS, HE IS AN UNBELIEVABLY RADICAL PERSON – STATES TRZASKOWSKI IN AN INTERVIEW WITH THE DEPUTY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF GW: “Anyone who compares Nawrocki to Duda today does not understand politics. Nawrocki not only lacks his talents, he is an unbelievably radical person. First, he responded to important questions by saying he 'considers nothing,' and when he did state what he considered, it was hair-raising. On the issue of abortion, he would not even repeal medieval law, which is currently in effect. We have already spoken about what he said about Ukraine in NATO.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31635251,rafal-trzaskowski-potrafie-zbudowac-relacje-z-donaldem-trumpem.html

— 30 YEARS AGO, THE SUPREME COURT SANCTIONED LIES IN POLITICS, SETTING THE BAR VERY LOW FOR ETHICAL STANDARDS IN PUBLIC LIFE. THE CASES OF MINISTER KOTULA OR THE “GRADUATES” OF COLLEGIUM HUMANUM ARE THE CONSEQUENCE OF THIS – TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ.

— PIETRYGA VERY STRONGLY ON THE SUPREME COURT IN 1995 – FURTHER IN RZ: “However, the judicial panel, dominated by judges from the PRL era, dismissed the protests, recognizing the elections as valid. This was one of the most shameful rulings of the Supreme Court in the history of the Third Republic, which shaped reality for decades to come. In this way, the judges sanctioned lying in politics, and at a crucial moment for the state, when society was slowly emerging from the trauma of a 'demoralized PRL.'”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art41719641-tomasz-pietryga-wyksztalcenie-ministry-kotuli-czyli-klatwa-kwasniewskiego

— POLAND IS STILL A COUNTRY WITH A CATHOLIC IDENTITY. THIS FACTOR IS NO LONGER DECISIVE TODAY, BUT IT IS ENOUGH TO WIN OR LOSE ELECTIONS – FR. KAZIMIERZ SOWA IN GW: “Poland, whether the liberal commentators like it or not, is still a country with a religious and Catholic identity and tradition. Therefore, any serious candidate who wants to become president of the country must consider this identity factor. It is no longer decisive today, but it is enough to win the elections (if one skillfully emphasizes their cultural connection with the electorate) or to lose disastrously by playing the anti-church card or allowing oneself to be portrayed that way by a competitor.”

— THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN FACED WITH PROPAGANDA PORTRAYING THE MAIN OPPONENT AS ALMOST PROVIDENTIAL “KAROL THE SAVIOR” – FR. SOWA’S CONCLUSION IN GW: “The extent to which President Trzaskowski's achievements show that he will not have prejudices in cooperating with Catholic or religious initiatives on a national scale is an open question. A good example is the Centre for Thought of John Paul II, inherited from Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, which is a modern, urban institution working for religious and cultural dialogue and supporting talented but less affluent youth with scholarships. Another example is joint actions of the city with Caritas and charitable religious organizations (e.g., with Sister Małgorzata Chmielewska’s 'Bread of Life' Community). The question is whether this will be enough when confronted with propaganda portraying the main opponent as an almost providential 'Karol the Savior.'”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31637593,kampania-rafala-trzaskowskiego-czy-palac-wart-jest-mszy.html

— BIRTHDAYS: Tomasz Sekielski, Wojciech Maziarski, Zbigniew Derdziuk, Wojciech Orliński, Paweł Szałamacha.


Łukasz Mężyk