state of play: 01/20/2025

THE STATE OF PLAY: Sawczuk on Trzaskowski's focus on Nawrocki's moves, who appears to be doing his own thing; Frasyniuk on the impression of a provisional government; Beylin on Kosiniak-Kamysz's pretension to be the de facto head of state

Łukasz Mężyk

— "THE HONEST HAVE NOTHING TO FEAR." THE PRIME MINISTER ON SHOUTS DURING A MEETING WITH NAWROCKI – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/01/20/

— NAWROCKI IS NOT TRYING TO IMITATE HIS RIVAL, HE IS NOT PRETENDING TO BE A LIBERAL NOR PROPOSING SUCH DEMANDS, AND HE DOESN'T LISTEN TO FUNK OR JAZZ – TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Nawrocki is making a similar adaptive move, heading towards the center and acting as the 'normal guy', although it's worth noting a certain political asymmetry here. The President of the IPN is trying to present himself as a balanced, calm candidate, contemplating the fate of Poland (though sometimes in a sports sweatshirt and during training). He clearly doesn't want to scare people with his radicalism to be palatable to voters of the mythical center. On the other hand, he's not trying to imitate his rival, he's not pretending to be a liberal and isn't proposing any such demands, nor is he listening to funk or jazz. Nawrocki is trying to become the kind of 'normal guy' that Krzysztof Bosak from Confederation speaks positively about.”

— THE PRESIDENT OF WARSAW IS MORE ORIENTED TOWARDS NAWROCKI'S MOVES, AND HE GIVES THE GENERAL IMPRESSION THAT HE IS DOING HIS OWN THING – SAWCZUK CONTINUES IN POLITYKA: “The President of Warsaw is more oriented towards Nawrocki's moves, and he gives the general impression that he is doing his own thing. As a side note, it's worth mentioning that not so long ago, the main representatives of the government – Donald Tusk and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz – also suggested that if Ukraine wants to join the EU, the issue of Volhynia must be settled first; evidently, they sensed political opportunities in this.”

— THE COURSE OF THE CAMPAIGN DOES NOT SEEM ADVANTAGEOUS FOR TRZASKOWSKI, AS IT MOBILIZES THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE POLITICAL SCENE BETTER – SAWCZUK FURTHER IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The course of this campaign does not seem advantageous for Trzaskowski, as it mobilizes the right side of the political scene better, which will be more inclined to vote for Nawrocki in the second round. The KO candidate probably hopes that by shifting to the right, he might (at best) gain some votes from Confederation voters or (at worst) demotivate them from voting for the President of the IPN supported by PiS. At the same time, however, this might alienate some voters with more liberal inclinations.”

— GIVE THEM HOPE THAT THE CHANGES THEY DESIRE CAN COME INTO EFFECT AFTER THE ELECTIONS – SAWCZUK'S CONCLUSION: “For this not to happen, he would have to convince them of at least one of two things. Give them hope that the changes they desire can come into effect after the elections – because Andrzej Duda has been blocking them so far, and the condition for their implementation is precisely Trzaskowski's victory. However, it's not easy to promise something like that, especially when one has to calm down right-wing voters and generally avoid saying too much to avoid offending anyone, thus hoping for the support of the majority of voters.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2285841,1,kampania-prezydencka-przesuwa-siew-prawo-jak-duzy-problem-ma-trzaskowski.read

— LOOKING AT DONALD TUSK'S WAY OF GOVERNING THE COUNTRY, I WOULD SAY THAT THE PHRASE "THE STATE IS ME," WHICH WE ATTRIBUTED TO KACZYŃSKI, CAN BE EQUALLY ATTRIBUTED TO TUSK – WŁADYSŁAW FRASYNIUK IN CONVERSATION WITH DAWID KARPIUK IN NEWSWEEK: “Looking at Donald Tusk's way of governing the country, I would say that the phrase 'the state is me,' which we attributed to Kaczyński, can be equally attributed to Tusk. There is, of course, a difference, which is that Kaczyński communicated through his party colleagues, while Tusk communicates with both the coalition and us citizens via the X platform. There is another positive difference, arguably the coalition's most significant success – the return to the European Union. I would also assess foreign policy and some changes in education as successes. Certainly, the changes occurring in the Ministry of Justice are also positive.”

— EVERYTHING THAT IS HAPPENING NOW STRENGTHENS THE CONVICTION THAT THIS IS A PROVISIONAL, INCOMPETENT GOVERNMENT, WHICH, AS WE SAY NOW, "IS NOT DELIVERING" – FRASYNIUK FURTHER IN NEWSWEEK: “Everything that is happening now strengthens the conviction that this is a provisional, incompetent government, which, as we say now, 'is not delivering.' If citizens do not quickly see that election promises are being fulfilled, political criminals from PiS are being held accountable, and the economic situation is improving, Trzaskowski will lose. The government must take responsibility, it must start making decisions that improve the situation and fulfill the hopes of citizens from the democratic side of the political scene. Politicians should create change, not support opportunistic attitudes.”

— THE ECONOMY SHOWS UNDUE SPENDING AND FUELING INFLATION – FRASYNIUK STATES IN KARPIUK'S INTERVIEW IN NEWSWEEK: “I am a pragmatic person: if the Polish government says that security is the most important thing today, I say: agreed, but a secure state cannot be built without a thriving economy. A strong, modern army cannot be built without money. Meanwhile, the economy shows undue spending and fueling inflation. Prime Minister Tusk rightly agreed that we will patrol the Baltic Sea together with Scandinavian countries. Only we will probably have to turn to the Polish Canoe Federation to go out to sea and patrol, because we don't have a navy.”

— WHAT WILL BE THE REAL ACHIEVEMENTS OF POLAND'S PRESIDENCY? WILL WE BE EUROPE'S ECONOMIC ENGINE? NO. WILL WE PRESENT AN ARMAMENTS PROGRAM? NO EITHER – FRASYNIUK TELLS KARPIUK IN NEWSWEEK: “It seems that Donald Tusk has the best cards to play, he is credible for Europe. The question is, does he have a goal? The Prime Minister said that Europe is lucky that Poland will now take over the presidency. OK. But what does this luck consist of? What will be the real achievements of Poland's presidency? Will we be Europe's economic engine? No. Will we present an armaments program? No either.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/ostro-krytykuje-rzad-tuska-trzaskowski-przegra/4skch1n

— THE "CHAUFFEUR" HAS TO DELIVER THE CAMPAIGN – JACEK GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK: “Paweł Szefernaker, a Member of Parliament and former Deputy Minister of the Interior, has joined Kaczyński's inner circle. – The leader probably talks to 'Szofer' [the nickname used by his party colleagues – ed.] once every two days, as he has become Karol Nawrocki's campaign manager – we hear in PiS. Kaczyński himself offered him this position. 'Szofer,' as they say in PiS, has management skills. They talk to the leader daily about the presidential campaign. He is a man of 'Jojo,' meaning Joachim Brudziński, a PiS MEP, very influential at Nowogrodzka Street. A person from PiS: – 'Szofer' is young, but already very experienced. He has a strong character, and still rejoices like a child that he is doing big politics. He is afraid of mistakes, so it's not on him that he messed up the campaign. – It's good that the staff has been tightened up, because it was a disaster before – says someone from the staff. The PiS executive committee, which includes 'Szofer,' has also been tightened up. The warnings given there have evidently worked: if there are leaks from this committee led by Mariusz Błaszczak, all its members (numbering 30) will be polygraphed.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/na-decyzje-kaczynskiego-ma-wplyw-kilka-osob-zyje-w-bankach-kulisy/z94nlr9

— KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ IS PRETENDING TO BE THE DE FACTO HEAD OF STATE; HE IS BECOMING THE FACE OF POLISH DEMOCRACY, WHICH FURTHER DEPRIVES SOME VOTERS OF HOPE – MAREK BEYLIN IN GW: “To do this, one more maneuver is needed. For some time now, the head of PSL, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, has been pretending to be the de facto head of state. He is advertising his effectiveness and strength. The latest example is the issue of health education, when the head of PSL publicly instructed the Minister of Education, Barbara Nowacka, that these lessons would be optional. This is unacceptable because such games by Kosiniak-Kamysz have consequences. He is becoming the face of Polish democracy, which further deprives some female and male voters, especially young ones, of hope for a friendly, equal, secular Poland. All the more reason why the narrative about why we need democracy is needed immediately.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31625153,kampania-wyborcza-przypomnijcie-po-co-nam-demokracja.html

— VOTERS WILL NOT BUY A TRZASKOWSKI PROVING TO THEM THAT HE IS KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ – LESZEK JAŻDŻEWSKI IN INTERIA: “Potential Trzaskowski voters, who voted in 2023 for anti-PiS parties or for him personally in 2020, and who are only moderately interested in politics, will not buy a Trzaskowski proving to them that he is Kosiniak-Kamysz. When Trzaskowski criticizes the European Union or tries to imitate a small-town conservative, he is clearly contradicting everything he has previously represented. This is not what voters expect from him.”

— THE ELECTION OF A PRESIDENT IS NOT A SURVEY IN AN ELECTION GUIDE. THE WINNER IS NOT THE ONE WHO OFFENDS THE FEWEST VOTERS IN THEIR DECLARATIONS – JAŻDŻEWSKI FURTHER IN INTERIA: “The election of a president is not a survey in an election guide. The winner is not the one who offends the fewest voters in their declarations. If that were the case, Szymon Hołownia would have become president – yet he has 7% in the polls. The winner is the one with whom people identify and whom they believe. And whom they consider an answer to the challenges of our times.”

— SUCH A CANDIDATE FINDS A NEW LANGUAGE TO REPAIR THE DIVIDED COMMUNITY. NOT BY RADICALLY PROCLAIMING HIS SUPPORTERS' SLOGANS, NOR BY "BETRAYING" THEM FOR THE SAKE OF OPPONENTS – JAŻDŻEWSKI'S CONCLUSION IN INTERIA: “He is not expected to have a precise political program. He is supposed to cross barriers. To perform an act of political transgression. Such a candidate finds a new language to repair the divided community. Not by radically proclaiming his supporters' slogans, nor by "betraying" them for the sake of opponents, but by finding new emotional fields that resonate with voters yearning for change.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-emocje-glupcze,nId,7893647

— GREEN EYES, CHANGED VIEWS: DOES TRZASKOWSKI'S METAMORPHOSIS MAKE SENSE? – MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “In 2020, Rafał Trzaskowski was himself: as natural as Polish cottage cheese, civic and liberal-left as from a Soros textbook. A nice, really nice candidate. But he had one minor flaw: he lost the election. Now he clearly wants to win at all costs, which he can of course be accused of, but is it worth it?”

— HE WAS NATURAL AND AUTHENTIC LIKE POLISH COTTAGE CHEESE AND CIVIC AND LIBERAL-LEFT LIKE FROM GEORG SOROS'S TEXTBOOK. WELL, A NICE, REALLY NICE CANDIDATE HE WAS. EXCEPT HE HAD ONE MINOR FLAW: HE LOST THE ELECTION – DANIELEWSKI FURTHER IN OKO: “All this, among a part of the liberal-left public opinion, caused a reaction that, referring to a well-known meme, is usually called 'surprised Pikachu.' Accusations flew that Trzaskowski in his new role is inauthentic, is failing his natural group of supporters, which in turn could lead to the risk of demobilizing this group of voters – we also pointed this out at OKO.press. But one can also look at it from the other side: in 2020, Rafał Trzaskowski was himself, he was natural and authentic like Polish cottage cheese and civic and liberal-left like from Georg Soros's textbook. Well, a nice, really nice candidate he was. Except he had one minor flaw: he lost the election.”

— FROM THE SECOND HALF OF FEBRUARY, IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO LOOK AT THE POLLS WITH GREATER INTEREST, THE CAMPAIGN WILL ENTER A MORE ADVANCED PHASE, AND SUMMER VOTERS, WHO ARE NOT INTERESTED IN POLITICS DAILY, WILL START TO PAY ATTENTION TO IT – MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI STILL WRITES IN OKO.PRESS: “What's the moral of the story? Primarily, for at least a few more weeks, don't get caught up in the poll-driven media frenzy of headlines. Those voters who will actually decide the election outcome in the June runoff have not even started to be interested in these elections yet, and they have only heard bits and pieces about the campaign itself. From the second half of February, it will be possible to look at the polls with greater interest, the campaign will enter a more advanced phase, and summer voters, who are not interested in politics daily, will start to pay attention to it, which may influence the research results. For now, however, we recommend calm and a glass of cold water to cool your emotions.”
https://oko.press/czy-metamorfoza-trzaskowskiego-ma-sens

— DONALD TUSK'S GOVERNMENT, CONSIDERED HEROES IN EUROPE FOR DEFEATING RIGHT-WING POPULISM, EVOKES EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE EMOTIONS IN TRUMP'S TEAM – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Trump and Musk believe that, just as in the US there is no chance of compromise with wokeness and that to change the world, one must opt for rebellion and protest, not negotiations with the left, so in Europe, it is necessary to support – and they are already doing so – identity-based right-wing parties that do not want to enter the mainstream, negotiate with it, but carry out a counter-revolution. And I doubt their ambitions will stop solely at France, Germany, or Great Britain. Sooner or later, they will become interested in Poland. Donald Tusk's government, considered heroes in Europe for defeating right-wing populism, evokes exactly the opposite emotions in Trump's team.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41698731-michal-szuldrzynski-trump-musk-hegseth-kontrrewolucja-kulturowa-w-cieniu-inauguracji-prezydenta-usa

— WARSAW IS TOO EXPENSIVE. IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE THEIR "PASSPORT TO A BETTER, RICHER WORLD." BUT THEY COULDN'T KEEP UP – ZUZANNA BUKŁAHA IN DUŻY FORMAT (GW): “– We were told our apartment in Żoliborz, which we had rented for five years, was being terminated. Looking for a new one in Warsaw led me to panic attacks. I was shaking at the thought of opening the listings page. For a three-room apartment, they were asking 5, even 7 thousand zlotys. Madness. Not to mention property prices if we wanted to buy. A million is the minimum in our district. I couldn't take it anymore. And my husband couldn't either – says Monika, who, along with her husband Paweł, decided to move out of Warsaw after 20 years.”
https://wyborcza.pl/duzyformat/7,127290,31619908,zbyt-droga-warszawa-miala-byc-ich-przepustka-do-lepszego.html

— BIRTHDAYS: Jerzy Niewodniczański (89), Henryk Goryszewski (84), Marcin Romanowski, Anna Witkowska.


Łukasz Mężyk