state of play: 01/17/2025
— TRUMP'S ASSOCIATES ARE PREPARING A SANCTIONS PACKAGE TO FORCE RUSSIA TO MAKE PEACE – BLOOMBERG UNOFFICIALLY REVEALS: According to Bloomberg, a more aggressive policy towards Russia could involve stronger enforcement of secondary sanctions on oil trade – which would ultimately affect both European distributors and buyers from Asia, including major entities in China and India.
https://wyborcza.pl/relacje/14,126862,31617331.html
— IF AFTER OCTOBER 15TH, THE NEW GOVERNMENT HAD ABOLISHED THE PROVISION ON PUSHBACKS, TODAY WE WOULD NOT BE ENDANGERING THE LIVES AND HEALTH OF INNOCENT VICTIMS OF WARS AND CRUEL REGIMES, AND ACTIVISTS WOULD NOT HAVE TO SECRETLY PROVIDE HUMANITARIAN AID, RISKING ACCUSATION OF SMUGGLING – JANINA OCHOJSKA IN GW.
— HOW WILL WE DIFFER FROM THOSE WHO ARE "SENDING US" THESE MIGRANTS AND WHO INSTRUMENTALLY USE THEM? – OCHOJSKA FURTHER IN GW.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31616938,w-prawie-migracji-i-uchodzcow-doradzam-rzadowi-wspolprace-z.html
— THE RULING COALITION HAS TURNED THE BUDGET INTO A CIRCUS FOR THE HARDEST-CORE ELECTORATE – PIOTR MIĄCZYŃSKI IN GW: "The most important financial document of the state for this year has been used in a matter where no one will win anyway, and people may potentially suffer. The Constitutional Tribunal, through the fault of the entire political class (and primarily PiS), is now a facade. (...) However, looking at it coldly, there are currently two so-called 'dubler' judges in the Constitutional Tribunal. A significant portion of the members of this body were appointed correctly, as the Venice Commission, an advisory body of the Council of Europe, pointed out in December. According to them, only the terms of judges who were incorrectly appointed to previously occupied seats should be terminated."
— DOES THE GOVERNMENT DISLIKE KRYSYNA PAWŁOWICZ IN THE ROLE OF A CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL JUDGE? I DON'T LIKE IT EITHER. BUT THAT'S A MATTER OF TASTE, NOT LAW – MIĄCZYŃSKI FURTHER IN GW: "A very important question arises here: can one not pay salaries to all Constitutional Tribunal judges because we don't like the institution as a whole? The coalition has decided that yes. However, that makes absolutely no sense, because the judges of the Constitutional Tribunal will sooner or later receive their remuneration."
— THIS IS NOT GREECE IN TIMES OF DECLINE, OR ARGENTINA; THE MONEY CAN STILL BE BORROWED. BUT THIS IS THE LAST YEAR OF SUCH GAMES – WRITES MIĄCZYŃSKI IN GW: "The deficit is shocking; this is the first entirely original budget of Finance Minister Andrzej Domański, undoubtedly constructed with the presidential elections in mind. The deficit is shocking. Revenues are planned at PLN 632.6 billion, while expenditures are not to exceed PLN 921.6 billion. Thus, the budget deficit will reach a maximum of PLN 289 billion, or as much as 7.3% of GDP. No, this is not Greece in times of decline, or Argentina; the money can still be borrowed. But this is the last year of such games." https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,147582,31619207,koalicja-rzadzaca-zrobila-sobie-cyrk-z-budzetem-dla-najtwardszego.html
— THE IMPRESSION OF CHAOS IS DEEPENING – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: "Polls show a drop in support for Civic Coalition and Rafał Trzaskowski. The reason may be a lack of faith that a state that cannot resolve subsidies for PiS following the decision of the National Electoral Commission or introduce a new subject in schools will be able to, for example, shorten waiting times for doctors."
— TUSK SHOULD HAVE A RED LIGHT FLASHING RIGHT NOW, BECAUSE THE CURRENT DRIFT MAY BACKFIRE – SZUŁDRZYŃSKI FURTHER IN RZ: "A red light should be flashing for Donald Tusk right now. Because the current drift may backfire not only on his party's ratings but also on Rafał Trzaskowski's chances of becoming president. Therefore, he should carefully examine what the polls say about the consequences of the decisions he has made." https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41692181-michal-szuldrzynski-pat-z-pkw-balagan-w-sadach-spor-o-edukacje-zdrowotna-wrazenie-chaosu-sie-poglebia
— THERE WILL BE NO SECOND JAGODNO – ESTERA FLIEGER IN RZ: "It was enough for voters to believe that things were worse than they actually were. The ruling party does not want to learn this lesson from the American elections. (...) The communication – a semantic abuse – strategy of the government can be described by the slogan 'Let them eat accountability.' Although the government is stumbling over that too." https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41689681-estera-flieger-drugiego-jagodna-nie-bedzie
— THE ELECTORATE THAT VOTED FOR THE THIRD WAY IN 2023 SEEMS TO BE LEANING TOWARDS VOTING FOR CONFEDERATION TODAY – MARCIN DUMA IN RZ: "The electorate that voted for the Third Way in 2023 seems to be leaning towards voting for Confederation today. This is an electorate that is somewhat liberal in economic terms, rather leaning towards conservative when it comes to civilizational and moral matters. And one that is somewhat disappointed with the state of the fulfillment of promises made to it on October 15th. Today, it is in a place where it is waiting for someone to present it with a promise to fulfill what it desires. And what it desires is to live well, for everything to return to the norm before 2020 – Duma also states."
— THE SYMPATHY SHOWN TO TRZASKOWSKI BY ZELENSKY MAY TURN OUT TO BE A DISSERVICE – DUMA FURTHER IN RZ: "Today they have returned to Confederation and are absorbing this anti-Ukrainian message. If they see today that President Zelensky – whom they do not view favorably – is visiting Trzaskowski and reprimanding Nawrocki, this key group receives a signal that perhaps this Nawrocki is better for them – says the expert. In his opinion, the sympathy shown to Trzaskowski by Zelensky may turn out to be a disservice." https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41690951-wolodymyr-zelenski-mowi-o-karolu-nawrockim-marcin-duma-kluczowa-grupa-wyborcow-dostaje-sygnal
— HOW VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY HELPED KAROL NAWROCKI – ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: "With full mobilization combined with the demobilization of the current ruling coalition's electorate, for example, as a result of disappointment with the government's failure to fulfill many promises, this electorate may be sufficient to win the presidential elections. And yet, even some voters of the ruling coalition (e.g., PSL) will not like Zelensky telling a Polish politician what he can and cannot say. After all, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz also talks about Ukraine settling accounts for the Volhynia massacre as a condition for Ukraine's entry into the EU." https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41688981-artur-bartkiewicz-jak-wolodymyr-zelenski-pomogl-karolowi-nawrockiemu
— RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI APPEARED IN A VIDEO WITH ZENEEK MARTYNIUK:
https://x.com/trzaskowski_/status/1879968788524990771
— THE ELECTIONS WILL PRIMARILY BE A PLEBISCITE TITLED "ARE YOU SATISFIED WITH 1.5 YEARS OF THE COALITION'S RULE" – RAFAŁ MADAJCZAK IN GAZETA.PL: "Regardless of what the KO candidate does or doesn't do, the elections will primarily be a plebiscite titled 'are you satisfied with 1.5 years of the rule of the coalition of Tusk, Kosiniak-Kamysz, Hołownia, and Czarzasty'. The least important in all of this will be Rafał Trzaskowski. Yes, it's Tusk's fault again."
— OUT OF NOWHERE, RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI HAS BECOME A CONSERVATIVE PSL MEMBER. WHEN WAS HE AUTHENTIC? THEN? NOW? NEVER? – THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF GAZETA.PL FURTHER: "Out of nowhere, Rafał Trzaskowski has become a conservative PSL member, as he opposed his own camp's stance by advocating for non-compulsory participation of children in health education classes, which hides another approach to any form of sex education. The politician, until recently a frequent visitor to pride parades and a supporter of sex educators' activities in Warsaw schools, is retreating from his progressivism. When was he authentic? Then? Now? Never?"
— NO ONE NEEDS A CAMPAIGNING RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI. RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMPAIGN NEEDS THE REAL RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI – MADAJCZAK FURTHER IN GAZETA.PL: "Meanwhile, no one needs a campaigning Rafał Trzaskowski. Rafał Trzaskowski's campaign needs the real Rafał Trzaskowski. Why could Trump say whatever he wanted? Why doesn't Karol Nawrocki's praise of hooliganism harm him? Because in today's politics, credibility is built on authenticity. Not on putting on false faces for focus groups."
— A MILKY, SEEMINGLY UNIVERSAL ADVERTISING CAMPAIGN IS A DEAD END – RAFAŁ MADAJCZAK'S CONCLUSION IN GAZETA.PL: "Yes, I am for partnership unions, green energy, and a strong Union (here I am listing all the topics that Rafał Trzaskowski is currently avoiding, thus most likely supporting them), because I believe in them and that's simply who I am, but as president, I will handle these specific matters for you and behave in this way and not another. And if not, you'll throw me out of the Palace, and you'll be right. In today's times, a milky, seemingly universal advertising campaign is a dead end. Especially if you are the candidate of the least beloved coalition in history." https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,31619522,tak-rafal-trzaskowski-ma-problem-i-nie-nazywa-sie-rafal-trzaskowski.html
— THE PROBLEM IS THAT AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE CAMPAIGN, HE APPEARS UNBELIEVABLE IN THESE NEW ROLES – ARKADIUSZ GRUSZCZYŃSKI IN GW: "The problem is that at the very beginning of the campaign, he appears unbelievable in these new roles. When he distances himself from progressive voters who have been waiting for sex education in schools for 36 years – he actually loses more than he gains."
— WILL TRZASKOWSKI, ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE SLOGANS, CONVINCE CONSERVATIVE VOTERS? – GRUSZCZYŃSKI FURTHER IN GW: "Because conservatives under the PSL banner will not believe him anyway, and liberal female voters from former voivodeship cities will think that men are again trying to arrange their world for them. When he visits the grave of Father Popiełuszko on December 13th, on the one hand, he tries to say that the myth of 'Solidarity' is broad and inclusive, but on the other hand, he steps into the shoes of all presidential candidates after 1989 who, regardless of their views and social moods, at some point recognized that they must consider the voice of the Church. And again: will Trzaskowski, associated with progressive slogans, convince conservative voters?"
— IF THE OPINIA24 SURVEYS ARE RELIABLE, TRZASKOWSKI'S TACTICS HAVE NOT WORKED, AND THE CIVIC COALITION CANDIDATE MUST QUICKLY SHIFT COURSE TO MOBILIZE HIS OWN VOTER BASE – GRUSZCZYŃSKI STILL WRITES IN GW: "If the Opina24 surveys are reliable, then Trzaskowski's tactics have not worked, and the Civic Coalition candidate must quickly shift course to mobilize his own voter base, which led the Coalition to victory on October 15th. In the most alarming scenario, women will stay home on May 18th and give Karol Nawrocki a strong victory." https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31616557,sztab-trzaskowskiego-widzimy-spadki-w-sondazach-spodziewalismy.html
— WILL HOŁOWNIA DEFINITELY RESIGN FROM THE MARSHAL OF THE SEJM POSITION? – KAMIL DZIUBKA IN ONEcie: "However, Szymon Hołownia's statements suggest that he himself will not want to resign. And then we return to the first scenario, where everything depends on Polska 2050, and possibly PSL. It is doubtful that the remaining clubs, i.e., PiS and Confederation, would support Czarzasty's election. And a political problem would begin here. – There are still nine months left, but in the autumn, this will be a problem. If Hołownia does not step down, we will have a dispute in the coalition. And Donald will not be able to wash his hands of it. He will have to somehow conduct it – we hear from one of the ministers." https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/bedzie-awantura-o-marszalka-w-koalicji-huczy-o-rzekomych-planach-szymona-holowni/43wd7xw,79cfc278
— IN SUCH A LOCATION ON THE MOKOTÓW PAVEMENT, IT IS SIMPLY IMPOSSIBLE TO RELAX – ONET ABOUT THE WOODEN RELAXATION ZONES IN MOKOTÓW: "- This is idiotic, it serves no purpose, an absolutely senseless investment. It doesn't encourage relaxation. Who would think of sitting right next to the street, where there is so much noise and exhaust fumes. I'm not even mentioning that it's now littered and covered in snow; maybe the installation will make more sense in the summer, but the location is still idiotic – added another passerby. What is the verdict of my test? To put it mildly, it's not great. It's noisy and uncomfortable, there's no greenery because it's winter, but there won't be much in the summer either. In such a location on the Mokotów pavement, it is simply impossible to relax." https://www.onet.pl/styl-zycia/noizz/przetestowalem-strefe-relaksu-za-60-tys-zl-przy-ruchliwej-ulicy/t9vr0y5,3796b4dc
— WIPLER: THE REAL GAME CHANGER FOR MENTZEN COULD BE STARTING WITH STANOWSKI – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/01/17
— BIRTHDAYS: Rafał Trzaskowski (53), Jan F. Libicki, Otylia Trzaskalska-Nuebel.
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