state of play: 07/31/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Rochowicz on RZ: A Series of Tax Hikes Has Begun, RZ: Inflation Has Spiked Again, Długosz: Coalition Partners Fear Tusk Will Call Elections, Baczyński: The Coalition Practically Doesn't Exist

Łukasz Mężyk

-- INFLATION HAS SPiked AGAIN. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN JULY - RZ: “Consumer inflation in Poland reached 4.2% year-on-year in July, compared to 2.6% in June – according to preliminary data from the Central Statistical Office.” https://www.rp.pl/dane-gospodarcze/art40894211-inflacja-znow-wystrzelila-duzy-wzrost-w-lipcu -- A SERIES OF TAX HIKES HAS BEGUN - PAWEŁ ROCHOWICZ IN RZ: “Firstly: excise duty on cigarettes. It was already supposed to increase, but the Ministry of Finance announced that the increase will be higher than stipulated by the statutory scheme. Secondly: property tax paid by companies. (...) It's not difficult to predict the effects on electricity or internet bills. (...) Thirdly: the Ministry of Climate announced that fuel and heating oil sellers will be required to purchase carbon dioxide emission allowances. This means imposing a para-tax.” https://www.rp.pl/podatki/art40891441-seria-podwyzek-podatkow-juz-sie-zaczela-na-razie-bez-planu -- PROPERTY TAX ON A TENT, A BENCH, AND EVEN A CASH REGISTER? ABSURDITIES IN THE DRAFT LAW - BOLESŁAW BRECZKO IN GW: “Business representatives are sounding the alarm that the draft amendment to the Property Tax Act may lead to numerous absurdities. According to it, taxes may be imposed on, among others, tents (even when folded), communication network elements such as laptops or routers, and small architecture, such as benches, sandboxes, or waste bins.” https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,147582,31184794,podatek-od-nieruchomosci-od-namiotu-lawki-a-nawet-kasy-fiskalnej.html -- NEW REGULATIONS PREPARED BY THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION MAY SEVERELY HIT ONE OF THE IMPORTANT SECTORS OF THE POLISH ECONOMY. FRANCE IS LOBBYING FOR CHANGES UNFAVORABLE TO POLAND IN THE REGULATIONS - GAZETA.PL REPORTS ON PULS BIZNESU'S FINDINGS: “One of the implementing acts to the so-called battery regulation concerns the calculation of the carbon footprint of batteries produced for electric vehicles. It turns out that an amendment, introduced at the final stage of consultations to the regulation, stipulates that the calculations should take into account the energy production structure of a given country, rather than the energy source used by the battery-producing company, 'Puls Biznesu' reports.” https://next.gazeta.pl/next/7,151003,31187245,unia-europejska-moze-zadac-polskiej-gospodarce-potezny-cios.html -- THIS COALITION PRACTICALLY DOESN'T EXIST - THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA IN HIS EDITORIAL: “This brings us to perhaps the key conclusion after the first half-year of the October 15 coalition: this coalition practically doesn't exist. That is, the government is functioning, the parliamentary majority manifests itself in various votes, but the coalition does not function as a public or political entity. There are no regular meetings of the four leaders of the partner parties, and even if they do occur, voters are unaware of them, so it's as if they didn't happen. Various statements from Messrs. Hołownia, Kosiniak-Kamysz, Czarzasty often indicate complete surprise at a decision, initiative, or opinion of the prime minister. Increasingly, the leaders also surprise each other with unconsulted ideas. The PSL is frustrated, which was strongly expressed by the party's leader, saying what is perhaps a banality, but in the form of a threat, that 'without the PSL, there will be no coalition'; the electorate and activists of Lewica are frustrated because the government is 'not delivering' their important postulates.” -- OBVIOUSLY, THERE IS NO RISK OF THE COALITION FALLING APART TODAY, AS IT WOULD BE EXPANDED SUICIDE FOR ITS PARTICIPANTS, BUT THE WHOLE THING IS POLITICALLY AESTHETICALLY UNPLEASANT - CONTINUES JERZY BACZYŃSKI. https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2265293,1,gwiazdy-i-gwiazdorzy -- COALITION PARTNERS FEAR TUSK WILL CALL ELECTIONS - DOMINIKA DŁUGOSZ IN NEWSWEEK: “For now, there is no plan for early elections, because it simply doesn't make sense. To call early elections, we need someone responsible for it, it can't be us – a Platform politician tells us. – Shortening the term without a clear reason will not be well received by our voters. I understand the concern of the coalition partners, but they should also start calculating instead of squabbling – he adds.” https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/koalicjanci-boja-sie-co-zrobi-tusk-psl-nagle-poczulo-sie-bardzo-osamotnione/fhqdjxt -- IN SOME SEGMENTS, THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT HAS WORSE RATINGS THAN OUR LOWEST POINT - WE HEAR FROM ONE OF THE MEETING PARTICIPANTS - IN AGATA KONDZIŃSKA'S TEXT IN GW ABOUT THE BACKGROUND OF PIS: “– In some segments, the current government has worse ratings than our lowest point – we hear from one of the meeting participants. He adds that Kaczyński had pointed out that the Tusk government has weak ratings after only seven months in power. The PiS leader wants to have a united and ready party. Hence the plans for the autumn congress. After it, regional elections and tours of districts are planned. The next step is to present a presidential candidate and begin the campaign.” -- KONDZIŃSKA ON THE REJUVENATION OF PIS - FURTHER IN GW: “– From those who work there daily, I hear the opinion that there should be more young, hardworking people around the leader, responsible for specific areas. Because it is at Nowogrodzka where the real, daily party work takes place. And out of six vice-presidents, three are in the European Parliament. Their ability to actually help with party work here on the ground is limited – a PiS politician tells us.” -- KONDZIŃSKA ON THE ARISTOCRATIC VICE-PRESIDENTS OF PIS: “In PiS, the vice-president title is jokingly called an 'aristocratic title,' and Macierewicz's function 'historical.' – He became vice-president once and still is – my interlocutor jokes.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31185583,pis-szykuje-sie-do-jesiennego-kongresu-kaczynski-wymieni-wiceprezesow.html -- PSL TO ABSTAIN FROM VOTING ON THE DECRIMINALIZATION OF ABORTION? MPS ARE SETTING A CONDITION OF VOTING ON THEIR PROJECT - PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ IN GAZETA.PL: “Supporters of decriminalization from KO and Lewica want to persuade PSL MPs to at least abstain from voting on this project during the next vote. Some PSL MPs do not rule this out, but only if their project is put to a vote at the same time.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,31186460,trzecia-droga-naciska-ws-ich-projektu-aborcyjnego-tu-nie.html -- MARCINIAK: THE NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION IS AN INDEPENDENT AND IMPARTIAL BODY - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/07/31/ -- CURRENTLY, THE CASE AGAINST PIS IN THE NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION IS BASED ON WEAK GROUNDS - A POLITICIAN FROM THE GOVERNMENT ON OFFIE WITH MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: “– Currently, the case against PiS in the National Election Commission is based on weak grounds. Soon, the National Election Commission itself will withdraw our funding as soon as the power changes. All of this guarantees mutual destruction – explains our informant from the current government's backstage.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art40889791-panstwowa-komisja-wyborcza-podejmie-decyzje-ws-finansow-pis-rosna-emocje-po-prawej-stronie -- THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION DOES NOT HAVE INVESTIGATIVE POWERS, AND IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR US TO PROVE THIS LEGALLY - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ'S INTERLOCUTOR ON ONET: “– Politically, the situation is clear. It is obvious that the United Right used public funds for campaign activities. The problem is that the National Election Commission does not have investigative powers, and it will be difficult for us to prove this legally – says our interlocutor from the National Election Commission.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/sadny-dzien-dla-pis-partii-grozi-bankructwo/5wfnlbe -- THERE IS A CORRELATION BETWEEN EXPENDITURES FROM THE FUND OF JUSTICE AND THE RESULTS OF SOLIDARNA POLSKA CANDIDATES FROM REMOTE PLACES - PROOFS IN OKO.PRESS: “In seven cases, we see a non-random connection between the examined variables, in two cases this connection is strong or very strong, and in the next two it is moderate. The coefficient of determination used here indicates the extent to which the candidate's election result is attributable to the amount of subsidies in the commune (an indicator of 0.5 means half). These are, respectively, Edward Siarka, Ewa Wędrowska, Jacek Ozdoba, Jan Kanthak, Mariusz Kałużny, Michał Wójcik, and Michał Woś.” -- EVEN A CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE INDICATES THAT IN AT LEAST FOUR CASES, THERE CAN BE WELL-FOUNDED DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THEY WOULD HAVE ENDED UP IN PARLIAMENT WITHOUT BENEFITING FROM THE FUND OF JUSTICE SUBSIDIES - CONTINUES SZYMCZAK IN OKO.PRESS. -- THIS IS A PREMISE THAT THE NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION SHOULD TAKE INTO ACCOUNT WHEN DECIDING ON THE ACCEPTANCE OR REJECTION OF THE FINANCIAL REPORT OF LAW AND JUSTICE - SZYMCZAK'S CONCLUSION IN OKO: https://oko.press/czy-politycy-suwerennej-polski-byliby-w-sejmie-bez-dopingu -- PRESSURE ON THE COMMISSION IS IMMENSE, BUT IT MUST ADHERE TO THE REGULATIONS. AND PIS CHANGED THEM. FOR EXAMPLE, THEY REMOVED AN IMPORTANT COMMA - ANNA MIERZYŃSKA IN OKO.PRESS: “The decision is indeed difficult to make. The problem lies, among other things, in the amended provisions of the Electoral Code. The amendment was carried out in 2018 on the initiative of PiS. At that time, a seemingly minor change was made to the regulations concerning election campaigning. Namely, MPs removed... a comma from Article 106.1. The change is small, but it has far-reaching legal consequences. And perhaps this removed comma will protect PiS from losing its subsidy.” https://oko.press/usuniety-przecinek-uratuje-pis-przed-utrata-subwencji -- RZ ON THE TAKEOVER OF THE NATIONAL REAL ESTATE STOCK BY HOŁOWNIA'S PARTY ACTIVISTS: “(...) Michał Szymczyk, a former candidate for MP from the Gorlice district, the same one from which the new president comes, has become an advisor to the KZN president for social housing initiatives. Surprisingly, Szymczyk combines his advisory role at KZN with being a master of ceremonies at weddings. 'If you're looking for a team to lead your day and your wedding, to have an amazing time, to have everything beautiful, colorful, and juicy, choose us!' – he encourages in one of the videos.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art40889291-kulisy-decyzji-szymona-holowni-ws-braku-poparcia-dla-rzadowego-programu-w-tle-instytucja-obsadzona-przez-jego-srodowisko -- BIRTHDAYS: Paweł Łączkowski, Jacek Ambroziak, Stanisław Jurcewicz, Fr. Kazimierz Sowa, Małgorzata Ostrowska, Arkadiusz Litwiński.

Łukasz Mężyk