state of play: 06/11/2024

THE STATE OF PLAY: GW: Peasants on the Third Way: The project is already worn out, Kondzińska: A generational change is coming to PiS? Bartkiewicz: Confederation benefits from polarization by KO and PiS

Łukasz Mężyk

-- BIELAN: THE GOVERNMENT COALITION IN THIS FORM WILL NOT LAST UNTIL THE END OF THE TERM - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/06/11 -- THESE ELECTIONS SHOWED THAT THERE IS A LONGING FOR YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE ELECTORATE, AND A CONSERVATIVE CAMPAIGN STYLE IS NO LONGER ENOUGH. BEING A PARTY ICON IS NOT ENOUGH - I HEAR IN PiS AFTER THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: “- These elections have primarily shown that iconic names are no longer enough to convince voters. This conservative way of campaigning did not work: a well-known name, support from Toruń, and some presence in the electorate. A certain generational change has occurred - says my interlocutor from PiS”. -- UNTIL NOW, THE PiS DELEGATION IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT HAS RATHER FEASTED IN ITS OWN COMPANY, WITH FEWER BACKROOM TALKS TO REACH EUROPEAN POLITICIANS. - CONTINUES KONDZIŃSKA: “PiS politicians also see an opportunity for the party to gain momentum through a generational change. They say that until now, the European Parliament has been treated more like a political retirement with good money in Jarosław Kaczyński's circles. The PiS delegation in the European Parliament rather feasted in its own company, with fewer backroom talks to reach European politicians”. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31047484,pis-po-wyborach-do-parlamentu-europejskiego.html -- IT WAS NOT THE FORMATION, BUT ITS LEADER WHO LOST ON SUNDAY. PROOF? EXCEPTIONALLY STRIKING: JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI ANOINTED AND SUPPORTED JACK KURSKI - ESTERA FLIEGER IN RZ: “Despite still a decent result, it would not be an exaggeration to say that it was not the formation, but its leader who lost on Sunday. Proof? Exceptionally striking: Jarosław Kaczyński anointed and supported Jacek Kurski, and he did not get into the European Parliament. When asked for a comment by journalists, Mateusz Morawiecki said that Jacek Kurski "is not worth spending more than six seconds on" (Jacek Gądek from Gazeta.pl portal recalled that he was referring to the 'doctrine' described by Onet in 2019: as TVP president, Kurski did not agree to show Prime Minister Morawiecki in 'Wiadomości' for longer than nine seconds)”. -- THIS IS A CAMP THAT, AFTER LOSING POWER, IS UNABLE TO RENEW ITSELF, BUT INSTEAD PLUNGES INTO INCREASINGLY AGGRESSIVE FACTIONAL FIGHTING - CONTINUES FLIEGER: “This is therefore a camp that, after losing power, is unable to renew itself, but instead plunges into increasingly aggressive factional fighting. I imagine that the queue of those willing to run in the presidential elections is not short. It will be a test of strength for the factions. The right, focused on pulling the rope, will easily lose: it will waste a lot of time that it should rather devote to reinventing itself and its proposal for Poland”. https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40592001-estera-flieger-wybory-przegral-osobiscie-jaroslaw-kaczynski-a-najwieksza-kleska-wciaz-przed-pis -- CONFEDERATION BENEFITS FROM THE POLARIZATION OF THE POLITICAL SCENE BY KO AND PiS - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “In the European Parliament elections, we witnessed a phenomenon that can be described as the 'single-list syndrome'. Although the current ruling coalition ran in the elections on three lists, Donald Tusk, thanks to his political skill, managed to dominate the campaign and polarize it along the KO-PiS line. Suggestions that 'a vote for PiS is a vote for Russia', presenting the elections as almost decisive for war or peace, while simultaneously equating the Western world of values with KO, led voters to believe they were dealing with something like a plebiscite. And those who did not agree to this shaping of the political scene in Poland began to look for a 'third way'. This time, however, they did not find it – nomen omen – in the Third Way, but precisely in the Confederation”. -- WHEN TUSK ACTIVATED THE POLARIZATION MACHINE, THE THIRD WAY COULD NOT POSITION ITSELF AGAINST KO WITHOUT GUARANTEEING SUCH POLITICS AS A COALITION PARTNER - CONTINUES BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “When Tusk activated the polarization machine, the Third Way could not position itself against KO without guaranteeing such politics as a coalition partner. As a result, compared to the elections of October 15, it lost – in percentage terms – the most voters and had to watch the Confederation's back”. https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40592351-artur-bartkiewicz-syndrom-jednej-listy-czyli-skad-sie-wzial-sukces-konfederacji-w-wyborach-do-pe -- PEASANTS ON THE THIRD WAY: THE PROJECT IS ALREADY WORN OUT. TO SAY BANKRUPTCY IS TO SAY NOTHING - JACEK BRZUSZKIEWICZ IN GW: “We have failed two elections in a row. A peasant cannot bear another defeat - thunders Józef Kuropatwa, head of the PSL county structures in Hrubieszów county, who is calling for the end of the project called the Third Way. More and more peasants in the Lublin region think like him. (...) However, something else has deeply affected the peasants. - One could get used to the fact that the countryside votes for PiS for several years. But losing to the Confederation and being the third choice in the countryside is hard to bear - two farmers gesture in front of Stokrotka in Kozubszczyzna near Lublin. They remember that Confederation candidates targeted Ukraine and Ukrainians during the election campaign. https://lublin.wyborcza.pl/lublin/7,48724,31048051,ludowcy-o-trzeciej-drodze-projekt-juz-sie-z-zuzyl-powiedziec.html -- VOICES ARE HEARD FROM PSL SAYING THAT AFTER A WEAK RESULT, THE JOINT PROJECT OF SZYMON HOŁOWNIA AND WŁADYSŁAW KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ MAY END. – DONALD WILL NOT CRY OVER IT – WE HEAR FROM ONE OF THE PLATFORM POLITICIANS - KAMIL DZIUBKA IN ONE.NET: “On Sunday, during the election night, Marshal Hołownia insisted that the 'Third Way project is doing well'. However, unofficial signals from the peasant camp today are significantly less enthusiastic. This entity practically no longer exists - we hear from our informant. According to our interlocutor, internal tensions have been tearing the Third Way apart since the local government elections, and the leaders, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz and Szymon Hołownia, have 'barely spoken to each other' for a long time”. https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/triumf-donalda-tuska-i-bol-glowy-koalicji-prawie-ze-soba-nie-rozmawiaja/b3dvx3z,79cfc278 -- LET'S RAISE THE BANNER OF LEWICA TOGETHER. BUT SERIOUSLY, WE URGENTLY NEED LEFT-WING PARTIES MUCH MORE RADICAL THAN PLATFORM LIGHT - ŁUKASZ ŁACHECKI IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “After each subsequent defeat, the left, which has long ceased to be the 'young hope', announces that it will draw conclusions, work hard, and make a new start. Enough of this, it's time for a change of guard, not to wait to see how Senator Biejat will reinvent herself. (...) anyone who has more pro-social views than the centrism and 'truth-middle-ism' beloved by Poles – currently drifting slowly but consistently and in line with European trends towards Russian-friendly Catholic-erotic fascism – must realize that we urgently need left-wing parties much more radical than Platform light”. -- BIEDROŃ ONCE AGAIN RIDES IN ON A WHITE HORSE TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, DESPITE DROWNING ALMOST THE ENTIRE REST OF HIS OWN TEAM, CZARZASTY SEATS HIMSELF AT DONALD TUSK'S FEET, AND ZANDBERG CONCEDED ANY INFLUENCE BY WALKOVER - CONTINUES ŁACHECKI IN KRYTYKA: “Two votes later, when Biedroń once again rides in on a white horse to the European Parliament, despite drowning almost the entire rest of his own team, Czarzasty seats himself at Donald Tusk's feet, and Zandberg conceded any influence on current Polish politics by walkover, the worn-out phrases of Magdalena Biejat, who obtained in the presidential elections 'in her area', Warsaw, a result similar to that of the Confederation in the European elections across Poland, about 'readiness for hard work and drawing conclusions', are a mockery”. -- TODAY THE LEFT-WING TRIBUNE IS NAKED. 10 YEARS OF THE RAZEM PARTY'S ACTIVITY HAVE STRENGTHENED THE LEFT IN POLAND SO LITTLE THAT IT HASN'T STRENGTHENED IT AT ALL - WRITES ŁACHECKI IN KRYTYKA: “The core of the Razem party is primarily a group of 30- and 40-year-olds, my peers, nice perpetual students who protested against the Iraq War at the beginning of the century, participated in alter-globalist protests, read Krytyka Polityczna – but today the left-wing tribune is naked. 10 years of the Razem party's activity have strengthened the left in Poland so little that it hasn't strengthened it at all”. https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/po-eurowyborach-sztandar-lewicy-wyprowadzic/ -- AMONG LOCAL LEFT-WING ACTIVISTS, WE HEAR ABOUT A "BUSINESS PROJECT" THAT HAS REPLACED THE FIGHT FOR VALUES, AND GROWING FURY.— WE WERE RIPPED OFF! — ONE OF THE LEFT-WING POLITICIANS TELLS US - MONIKA WALUŚ IN ONE.NET: “As he explains, the aforementioned "business plan" was the idea of the Left leaders to mobilize all forces so that three specific people would get into the European Parliament: Robert Biedroń (ran from Warsaw), Krzysztof Śmiszek (from the Lower Silesian-Opole constituency), and Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus (from Greater Poland). — If Belka had also been included in this arrangement, it would have been easier to swallow that values were replaced by a business project. And so it turned out that we were ripped off – the Left politician does not hide his anger”. -- KWAŚNIEWSKI ON EARLY ELECTIONS - CONTINUES WALUŚ IN ONE.NET: “And he adds: — I think we have a situation of mutual holding. Of course, there will be a government reconstruction, because a few people will leave for the European Parliament, but I don't believe that Tusk would commit political suicide and decide on early elections today”. https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/lewica-szoruje-po-wyborczym-dnie-nie-ma-co-sie-gniewac-na-tuska/x960x3n,79cfc278 -- GRONKIEWICZ-WALTZ AND KALETA SECURED ONE SEAT EACH FOR KO AND PiS, ALTHOUGH THEY WON'T GO TO BRUSSELS THEMSELVES - MICHAŁ WOJTCZUK IN GW: “Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz secured the fourth result. Some were surprised, and even condemned the decision to bring her back from political retirement. But thanks to her name recognition from her time as mayor of Warsaw and the sentiment of a large group of voters, Gronkiewicz-Waltz garnered over 94,000 votes. This is a very good result, which the former mayor of the capital does not have to be ashamed of at all. Especially since this result concretely benefited Civic Coalition. What leads to this conclusion? This quartet of politicians in the top spots of the KO list gathered nearly half a million votes. This is 85% of all votes cast for KO in this district. Combined with high turnout – which in the entire Warsaw district was over 56%, and over 58% in Warsaw itself – it resulted in KO being allocated three, not two, seats in Warsaw and its surrounding districts, as in the previous term”. -- THE PiS LIST ALSO PROVED SUCCESSFUL, KALETA FOUGHT WITH A CAP AND DELIVERED 80 THOUSAND VOTES - CONTINUES WOJTCZUK IN GW: “The PiS list also proved successful. Its leader, Małgorzata Gosiewska, did not electrify voters in Warsaw itself (she was outranked here by Tobiasz Bocheński, who ran second), but she still took first place in the entire district, gaining over 99,000 votes. Bocheński, on the other hand, used his recognition in Warsaw, gained as the PiS candidate for mayor of the capital, and added nearly 96,000 votes to his party's result. (...) thanks to the strong overall result of the PiS list, the party defended two seats in Warsaw, although pre-election polls predicted it would only get one seat in the capital. This would not have been possible without Bocheński or Kaleta. (...) Sebastian Kaleta, an MP from Suwerenna Polska, the right-hand man of Patryk Jaki, who became known during the election campaign for his fight with a cap attached to a bottle, also achieved a strong result on the PiS list. This fight was his protest – which turned out to be shared by Eurosceptics from several EU countries – against an EU regulation introduced for environmental reasons. Permanently attaching the cap to the bottle is a form of fighting plastic pollution worldwide. Kaleta was mocked for this action, but he gained popularity among his electorate and over 80,000 votes, including many in the United States and Canada”. https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,31047484,kaleta-i-gronkiewicz-waltz-wywalczyli-po-mandacie-dla-pis-i.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Bronisław Wildstein, Krzysztof Janik, Anna Maria Żukowska (turns 41), Mirosław Koźlakiewicz.

Łukasz Mężyk