state of play: 06/10/2024

STATE OF PLAY: PiS Has Survived the Toughest Period Without Significant Support Loss, Karnowski: Weak Performance by the PiS 'Old Guard,' Szubartowicz: A Head of the EC for Poland?

Łukasz Mężyk

-- DEPUTY MINISTER OF NATIONAL DEFENCE ATTACKS TUSK. "THIS IS ABSOLUTE NONSENSE" - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/06/10 -- BEATA SZYDŁO DID NOT SECURE OVER HALF A MILLION VOTES THIS TIME. POLAND'S BEST IS BORYS BUDKA - OKO.PRESS: “The former Prime Minister has, of course, secured a seat as an MEP for the second time in a row. But this time, she holds the third-best result in Poland. She has been outranked by Borys Budka and Bogdan Zdrojewski.” https://oko.press/na-zywo/na-zywo-relacja/beata-szydlo-tym-razem-nie-zdobyla-ponad-pol-miliona-glosow-najlepszy-w-polsce-borys-budka -- TURNOUT 40.65 PERCENT. THE WORST RESULT IN 10 YEARS - JAKUB SZYMCZAK IN OKO.PRESS: “The final turnout for the European Parliament elections was 40.65 percent. This is the worst result in a general election in Poland since the European elections 10 years ago: at that time, only 23.83 percent of eligible voters went to the polls. In the last European elections in 2019, the turnout was 45.68 percent.” -- CITIES VOTED MORE WILLINGLY THAN VILLAGES – SZYMCZAK FURTHER IN OKO: “43.58 percent versus 35.90 percent. The larger the municipality, the more voters. With one exception – in municipalities with 20,000 to 50,000 inhabitants and those between 50,000 and 100,000 inhabitants, the turnout is almost identical, but with a minimal advantage for the former (41.01 percent vs. 40.89 percent). Otherwise, the dependency is constant and straightforward. In the smallest municipalities up to 5,000 inhabitants, the turnout is 33.67 percent, while in cities with over 500,000 inhabitants – 53.93 percent.” https://oko.press/na-zywo/na-zywo-relacja/oficjalnie-frekwencja-4065-proc-najgorszy-wynik-od-10-lat -- THESE TRANSFERS FROM LEWICA AND TD MAY BE THE RESULT OF CIVIC COALITION'S OR EVEN PO'S DOMINANCE IN PUBLIC LIFE AND THE FRUSTRATION OF COALITION VOTERS, DISAPPOINTED BY THE INVISIBILITY OF THEIR PARTIES - PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “This phenomenon, which we crudely described under the slogan: ‘Tusk Devours His Coalitions,’ has occurred. In our last pre-election poll, the electorate of Trzecia Droga from the October 15, 2023 elections declared, by 17 percent, and the electorate of Lewica, by as much as 25 percent, that they would vote for Civic Coalition this time. These transfers from Lewica and TD may be the result of Civic Coalition's or even PO's dominance in public life and the frustration of coalition voters, disappointed by the invisibility of their parties.” -- TRZECIA DROGA SUFFered A DEFEAT, FALLING IN THE POLLS AFTER THE WAVE OF "HOŁOWNIA-MANIA," UNABLE TO FIND ITS WAY. LEWICA PLUNGED INTO STAGNATION AND CRISIS. TOGETHER, BOTH PARTIES ACHIEVED AS MUCH AS TRZECIA DROGA DID IN THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS - PACEWICZ FURTHER: “Trzecia Droga suffered a defeat, which, after the wave of 'Hołownia-mania,' fell in the polls, unable to find its way. Lewica plunged into stagnation and crisis. Together, both parties achieved as much as Trzecia Droga did in the 2023 parliamentary elections. Donald Tusk chose the language of the sharpest rhetoric for his political battle with PiS, and the wave of accountability rose so high that the programmatic demands important for Lewica or Trzecia Droga are invisible within it.” https://oko.press/po-10-latach-zwyciestw-pis-przegral-wybory -- NOWACKA: MARSHAL HOŁOWNIA SAID WE WOULD SOON SEE HOW MANY OF THOSE RESCUE VOTES THERE WERE IN THE PREVIOUS ELECTION. WELL, WE SAW - BARBARA NOWACKA TELLS INTERIA (Łukasz Szpyrka): “- The structure of the elections on October 15 was specific. A lot of votes were so-called rescue votes. After all, Donald Tusk appealed to vote for smaller coalition partners. Moreover, Marshal Szymon Hołownia said that we would soon see how many of those rescue votes there were. Well, we saw. Well, Mr. Szymon got his wish and saw that they actually had fewer voters than they thought – Nowacka tells us.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/raport-wybory-do-parlamentu-europejskiego-2024/news-barbara-nowacka-wbija-szpile-koalicjantom-no-to-sie-pan-szym,nId,7564145 -- ONE OF THE GREATEST EXPERTS ON POLITICAL PROPAGANDA - IN HIS OWN OPINION - LOST HIS OWN ELECTION CAMPAIGN - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “Jacek Kurski did not win a European mandate. But his return to politics turned out to be a failure overall. Here we have one of the greatest experts on political propaganda – in his own opinion – who lost his own election campaign. (...) Jarosław Kaczyński did not listen to the voters. He listened to Jacek Kurski. Both lost. And without their TVP, they will no longer have a place to complain and shed tears without restraint.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31045772,jacek-kurski-przegral-przez-telewizje.html -- THE ELECTIONS FORESHADOW A PERIOD OF POLITICAL INSTABILITY ON THE COALITION SIDE - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “But at the same time, the elections foreshadow a period of political instability on the side of the December 13 coalition. Civic Coalition is devouring its coalition partners at an almost impressive pace. Trzecia Droga's result is very weak, and Lewica's is dramatically weak. Initially, PO's coalition partners will seek solace, but soon they will realize: if they don't change anything, they will soon be reduced to the role of an insignificant appendage. Things will happen here, it's inevitable.” -- ON THE UNITED RIGHT SIDE, THE GENERALLY WEAK PERFORMANCE OF THE "OLD GUARD" IS NOTEWORTHY; THE RIGHT-WING VOTER IS LOOKING FOR NEW PROPOSALS - KARNOWSKI FURTHER: “On the United Right side, the generally weak performance of the 'old guard,' occupying the first and second positions on the lists, is noteworthy. Politicians of the younger generation, who won mandates from further down the lists, achieved great success. The right-wing voter is looking for new proposals and is becoming more discerning about the central leadership's decisions. PiS leaders will have to draw conclusions from this, also before the presidential elections.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/694863-po-zjada-swoich-koalicjantow-w-tempie-wrecz-imponujacym -- CONSIDERING THAT PIS HAS BECOME THE HERO OF THREE INVESTIGATIVE COMMITTEES, THE RESULT IS EXCELLENT. KACZYŃSKI IMPROVED HIS STANDINGS FROM THE OCTOBER AND APRIL PARLIAMENTARY AND REGIONAL ELECTIONS - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Considering the spate of scandals in recent months, PiS's cut-off from influencing state media (public or state-owned companies), considering the fact that PiS has become the subject of three investigative committees, the result is excellent. Kaczyński improved his standings from the October and April parliamentary and regional elections. He lost, but by so little that no one in the party could question his leadership. And although the defeat of several lead candidates is on the account of the president, who constructed the electoral lists as a ranking of merits for the party, contrary to the will of the voters – as it turned out – it will be difficult for the internal opposition, if anything of the sort even exists within PiS, to demand consequences from the president, who received 36 percent.” -- TUSK WILL HAVE AN ARGUMENT THAT THE FIGHT WITH PIS IS STILL UNRESOLVED. HE WILL HAVE AN ARGUMENT FOR MAKING VARIOUS, NOT ALWAYS POPULAR, DECISIONS - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI FURTHER: “But this small difference is good news not only for Kaczyński himself. Also for Tusk. He will have an argument that the fight with PiS is still unresolved. He will have an argument for making various, not always popular, decisions, saying that if he doesn't do this or that, PiS will return and win.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40590481-michal-szuldrzynski-wynik-idealny-dla-donalda-tuska-dla-jaroslawa-kaczynskiego-tez-dlaczego -- PIS HAS NO REASON TO WORRY: IT HAS SURVIVED THE TOUGHEST PERIOD, ESSENTIALLY WITHOUT LOSING SUPPORT - MICHAŁ PŁOCIŃSKI IN RZ: “President Kaczyński managed to achieve the primary goal: consolidate the party and steer it through the period of greatest turbulence. Now, voices are beginning to be heard in the party saying that the worst is behind them, that it will only get easier from now on, as public opinion will increasingly hold the new government accountable and be less interested in the past transgressions of the right. Maintaining around 35 percent support is an excellent base to start preparing for a serious reckoning with the ruling coalition, which cannot agree on many issues.” -- THE CIVIC COALITION'S VICTORY OVER PIS IS TRULY MINIMAL, WHICH IS SURPRISING AFTER A CAMPAIGN DOMINATED BY FURTHER REPORTS OF VARIOUS IRREGULARITIES FROM THE PIS ERA AND IS SOLELY THE RESULT OF DEVOURING TRZECIA DROGA - PŁOCIŃSKI FURTHER: “Firstly, it is truly minimal, which is surprising after a campaign dominated by further reports of various irregularities from the PiS era and further tapes related to the Funduszu Sprawiedliwości (Justice Fund) scandal, showing how deep the moral decline of United Right politicians was after eight years in power. Secondly, the combined result of the parties co-forming the new government has essentially not budged since the October 15 parliamentary elections, and the Civic Coalition's victory over PiS is solely the result of devouring Trzecia Droga, i.e., Donald Tusk taking voters from Szymon Hołownia and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. However, PiS remains just as strong. And it may return even stronger.” -- KONFEDERACJA HAS SMELLED BLOOD AND WILL SURELY, WITH UNCONCEALED PLEASURE, HELP DONALD TUSK TO FURTHER DISMEMBER TRZECIA DROGA - PŁOCIŃSKI FURTHER IN RZ: “following the catastrophic result of Trzecia Droga, but after the greatest electoral success in the history of Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak's party, it seems that the right-wing, anti-PiS voter, who has remained with Szymon Hołownia, may begin to wonder if perhaps they shouldn't look more favorably upon Konfederacja. (...) Konfederacja has smelled blood after the European Parliament elections and will surely, with unconcealed pleasure, help Donald Tusk to further dismember Trzecia Droga.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40589651-michal-plocinski-pis-wroci-silniejszy-a-konfederacja-pomoze-tuskowi-w-rozbiorze-trzeciej-drogi -- TUSK MAY CONTEND FOR THE POSITION OF HEAD OF THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION FOR POLAND - PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: “Tusk's victory and that of his formation will have at least three consequences. Firstly, it creates an opportunity for Poland to vie for the position of Head of the European Commission in the new lineup. The good result of Civic Coalition, which has broken the dominance of the 'unlawful right' after eight years of its rule in the frontline country, gives the Prime Minister very strong arguments that he will be able to use soon. Especially since Ursula von der Leyen's position is no longer unthreatened.” -- THE INTERNAL SITUATION IN THE RULING COALITION WILL BECOME EVEN MORE TENSE - SZUBARTOWICZ FURTHER: “Secondly, the internal situation in the ruling coalition will become even more tense, and perhaps there will be shifts in spheres of influence. The defeat of Nowa Lewica, which achieved a very weak result and contributed not a single new idea to public debate, has relegated this formation to a fight for political survival.” -- IT IS NOT EXCLUDED THAT LEWICA AND TRZECIA DROGA WILL SEEK SEPARATISM TO REBUILD SUPPORT, AND THIS MAY CREATE AN UNEXPECTED PROBLEM FOR THE PRIME MINISTER - SZUBARTOWICZ FURTHER: “In a situation where Konfederacja has taken Trzecia Droga's place – both realistically and symbolically – Szymon Hołownia's dreams of overcoming growing polarization will have to be replaced by humility and skill in negotiations with Tusk about a new balance of power. It is not excluded that Lewica and Trzecia Droga will seek separatism to rebuild support, and this may create an unexpected problem for the Prime Minister.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-wiecej-dla-polski,nId,7565518 -- IS THIS A SIGNAL FROM THE VOTERS THAT THE "PIS PEOPLE" EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE PARTY THEY SUPPORT? IT SEEMS SO - PIOTR GURSZTYN ON WPOLITYCE.PL: “According to preliminary, unofficial signals, younger, new candidates achieved the best results on the PiS lists. Is this a signal from the voters that the 'PiS people' expect significant changes in the party they support? It seems so, because the good result of Konfederacja also points to this. And let's recall that five years ago, the KWW Konfederacja, Korwin, Braun, Liroy, Narodowcy (as it was called then) garnered a meager 4.55 percent of the votes and thus not a single mandate. It seems that the PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński will have to act according to the Italian writer's saying, that sometimes you have to change a lot for everything to stay the same.” -- TRZECIA DROGA AND LEWICA ARE NOW MERELY INDEPENDENT APPENDAGES - GURSZTYN FURTHER ON WPOLITYCE: “One can now write that Trzecia Droga and Lewica are merely appendages of Donald Tusk. This is the end of Szymon Hołownia's dreams of autonomy, and at Lewica, no one has been thinking about that for a long time. These small groupings, which Civic Coalition cannibalizes in subsequent elections, will henceforth be mere 'dietary' groups of MPs. That is, those who, for the opportunity to endure and benefit from perks from the resources of the Ministry of State Assets, will support the current government without complaint.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/694848-donald-tusk-rozjechal-wlasnych-koalicjantow -- BIRTHDAYS: Alicja Grześkowiak (83), Jan Łopuszański (69), Michał Boni, Paweł Suski, Matylda Damięcka.

Łukasz Mężyk