state of play: 08/14/2020
POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Majmurek: Internal Wars Could Bring PiS Closer to the AWS Moment, Solidarity Women Appeal 'To Colleagues from the Opposition Era Who Have Found Themselves in the Structures of the Current Government, Including Security Services'
-- PIS LOSES VOTE, 46 MPS ABSENT, DWORCZYK ON CHANGES IN BELARUS, MULLER ON NEGOTIATIONS REGARDING GOVERNMENT CHANGES - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/08/14/
-- THE PRIME MINISTER WILL PRESENT THE 'SOLIDARITY WITH BELARUS' PLAN IN PARLIAMENT, ELEMENTS OF WHICH WE DESCRIBED ON 300POLITYKA: A large part of the conversation with the US Secretary of State will be dedicated to the situation in Belarus – 300POLITYKA has learned. Mateusz Morawiecki will also present a completely new political proposal to EU partners. The Prime Minister will also announce significant facilitation for repressed Belarusians entering Poland, exemption from visa fees, and easier access to employment – we hear.
https://300polityka.pl/news/2020/08/13/premier-morawiecki-przedstawi-w-sejmie-kompleksowy-projekt-solidarnosci-z-bialorusia-o-ktorym-bedzie-rozmawial-m-in-z-pompeo-wyjdzie-tez-z-nowa-propozycja-polityczna-dla-unii-europejskiej/
-- BELARUSIANS SHOW GREAT INVENTIVENESS - JAGIENKA WILCZAK IN POLITYKA ON PROTESTS: "People are showing a lot of inventiveness that I didn't suspect them of (for which I apologize). Women dressed in white, with flowers, 100% peaceful, are taking to the streets. It's hard to attack them. Beat them? Shoot them? Round them up and shove them into police vans? And they write on banners: 'Sasha, we will stop loving you if you beat us.' The police don't have an answer."
-- THERE'S NO POINT COUNTING ON A ROUND TABLE - CONTINUES WILCZAK: "Lukashenko is a type of dictator who will not leave on his own, nor would I count on any round table. That's not the politician's format. He neither wants nor is able to share power or give it up elegantly. He feels like the owner of the country and its people, their minds. Over 26 years of his rule, he has taken more and more, trampling on all democratic principles along the way. He has humiliated and manipulated. He instilled fear."
-- EVEN IF HE DOESN'T CEDE POWER, HE WILL NO LONGER RULE A SUBMISSIVE SOCIETY - WILCZAK'S CONCLUSION: "Perhaps, since the protest front is widening, a leader will emerge who will take charge of the opposition. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya wanted to bring about change, to free, independent elections. What she has done for Belarus cannot be overestimated. Because even if Lukashenko doesn't cede power this time, he will no longer rule a submissive society."
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/swiat/1967540,1,bialorusini-sie-nie-poddaja-zbiera-sie-masa-krytyczna.read?src=mt
-- NEXTA CHANNEL ON TELEGRAM ADMINISTERED BY BELARUSIANS IN WARSAW IS ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT TOOLS OF PROTESTS - WOJCIECH KONOŃCZUK IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: "In the absence of a political coordination center, NEXTA, the most popular Belarusian channel on the Telegram messenger, is informally trying to play that role. Out of Belarus's 9.5 million citizens, as many as 1.7 million follow it, making it a powerful tool. Interestingly, it is administered by the Belarusian diaspora in Warsaw. The importance and popularity of the NEXTA channel proved even greater when, since Sunday, Belarusian authorities have been shutting down the internet in the country almost continuously – to hinder protest coordination through social media (like Facebook or the Russian-language VKontakte) or messengers (like Messenger). Meanwhile, Telegram proves to be exceptionally resistant to such blocking attempts."
-- LUKASHENKO IS COMPLETELY DELEGITIMIZED - CONTINUES KONOŃCZUK: "At this stage, there are no clear answers to this. Certainly, Lukashenko is completely delegitimized in the eyes of most Belarusians and – whatever he does now – he will not regain their support. Moreover, since Sunday, he has been consistently worsening his position by making further mistakes. Continued rule over a society whose sense of justice has been so deeply violated, and which has so openly disavowed him, would be extremely difficult. It therefore seems that the possibility of political change in Belarus has never been greater than now."
-- THIS WILL PERMANENTLY CHANGE BELARUSIAN SOCIETY - KONOŃCZUK IN TP: "Regardless of what happens in the near future, the Belarusian protests – under the historical white-red-white flags and the Pogoń coat of arms – are permanently changing this society. They are significantly contributing to the building of its agency and strengthening its national identity. It is a kind of accelerated re-constitution of a nation – despite all differences, sharing common features (including collective emotions) with the one that began in Poland 40 years ago, in the memorable August of 1980."
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/dni-ktore-wstrzasaja-bialorusia-164492
-- PARTNERSHIP WITH THE USA IS NOT ALWAYS EASY AND FREE OF TENSION - JACEK CZAPUTOWICZ IN AN ARTICLE FOR RZ: "In building the Polish-American partnership, Polish diplomacy recognizes that the United States, due to its exceptional potential and breadth of interests, is genuinely engaged in every serious conflict in the world and participates in most international initiatives. In the complex, global network of mutual dependencies, the American administration often seeks support for its presented stance and undertaken actions. On the other hand, it can also offer assistance in situations and places where other countries have their interests but lack their own means of influence. This gives the partnership with the USA unique value, although it is not always easy and free of tension, as exemplified by the cool reaction of the American side to some provisions in the amendment to the Act on the Institute of National Remembrance in January 2018."
-- WE AGREED ON THE NEED TO COUNTERACT RUSSIA'S ENERGY DOMINANCE IN EUROPE - CZAPUTOWICZ AGAIN IN RZ: "Bilateral talks with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo confirmed the need to continue the process of strengthening NATO's eastern flank, inter alia, through expanded US troop presence in Poland and the implementation of initiatives covered by the American deterrence capability building initiative in Europe. We also agreed on the necessity of counteracting Russia's energy dominance in Europe and the need to diversify gas supplies, inter alia, through LNG imports from the USA, the expansion of infrastructure independent of a single supply direction, as well as through the development of nuclear energy and modern alternative technologies. The meeting between Secretary Pompeo and soldiers in the NATO Battle Group in Bemowo Piskie, where Americans play the role of the framework nation coordinating its operational activity, had symbolic significance."
https://www.rp.pl/Publicystyka/308139921-Jacek-Czaputowicz-Klucz-do-bezpieczenstwa.html
-- ZIOBRO IS OVERHEATING, THE EFFECT MAY BE THE OPPOSITE, AS TERLIKOWSKI SEES - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: "However, any topic, even one most beneficial to the party, can be overplayed. Is Zbigniew Ziobro not doing just that? Leaders of conservative public opinion, like Tomasz Terlikowski, are warning the United Right against escalating cultural wars. Civilizational processes, global pop culture, secularization evident in Poland especially among the younger generation, and finally, the international environment – all these favor the progress of what the right calls 'LGBT ideology.' It is difficult to halt such processes with an administrative decree, and attempts to stop them with the prosecutor and a police baton may temporarily thrill one's own activists and the far-right electorate, but in the longer term, it may provoke the opposite reaction and trigger a rapid secularization-emancipatory scenario in Poland, similar to Malta and Ireland – which conservatives like the aforementioned Terlikowski seem to clearly fear."
-- ESCALATION OF THE CULTURAL WAR WILL DETER MODERATE ELECTORATES - CONTINUES MAJMUREK: "The moderate, conservative electorate, which does not think in terms of long-term civilizational processes on a daily basis, may be repelled by Ziobro's actions, as the state, instead of ensuring worldview peace, seems to be escalating a cultural war in Poland. Just as the issue of aligning with LGBT demands may be a problem for the more conservative part of the opposition, so for the ruling camp, its identification with extreme, fundamentalist groups, such as the authors of the homophobic truck campaign, or the activists of the Army of God, guarding the statue of Christ the King with rosaries in hand before the Basilica of Saint Cross on Krakowskie Przedmieście, can be a problem. A state that sends security appropriate for a government member in a state with a high level of terrorist threat to guard statues – so that no one accidentally ties a rainbow flag around them – simply makes itself ridiculous in the eyes of citizens. Similarly, – while maintaining all proportions – the authoritarian regime of the Polish People's Republic made itself ridiculous by arresting a copy of the icon of Our Lady of Częstochowa under Gomułka, and under Jaruzelski, fighting the dwarfs of the Orange Alternative."
-- MAJMUREK ON THE AWS MOMENT WHERE PIS MIGHT FIND ITSELF WHEN THE CAMP CONSUMES ENERGY ON INTERNAL WARS: "He will rock the United Right boat in the government, even more so the closer the issue of Jarosław Kaczyński's successor at the head of the current ruling camp becomes to resolution. The prosecutor's office, cultural wars, including the LGBT issue, and disputes with the European Union will most likely be included in this rocking. Even considering how panic-stricken moral crises stirred around this topic have worked so far, Ziobro may miscalculate. Poles have low tolerance for governments that reach what can be called a point of non-governance – a moment when the government is unable to fulfill its basic functions because the political camp forming it consumes all its energy on internal wars. AWS reached this point at the latest after Krzaklewski's defeat in the presidential elections in 2000, SLD in its second term after the Rywin affair, PiS in the past decade has been on its edge from the beginning. Now the Ziobroists are pushing it under this edge. Even if their actions today do not harm poll numbers, in a few years' time, they may prove to be a key problem for the ruling camp."
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/zbigniew-ziobro-i-punkt-nie-rzadnosci/
-- SOLIDARITY WOMEN - INCLUDING EWA MILEWICZ, HELENA ŁUCZYWO, GRAŻYNA STANISZEWSKA, BARBARA LABUDA IN A JOINT STATEMENT WRITE ABOUT POLICE BRUTALITY: "We are outraged by the brutality with which the police are currently treating demonstrators in defense of gay, lesbian, bisexual, transgender, and non-binary people. We condemn the humiliating practices employed by 'law enforcers' against detained non-heteronormative individuals, and the use of direct coercive measures that are contrary to the law and unjustified by the behavior of the demonstrators. Police officers, without adequate psychological preparation and medical knowledge, violate the dignity of detainees, forcing them in police stations to strip naked and perform squats in the presence of people of the opposite sex. 'Gender determination,' groping, grabbing the groin, stripping, vulgar, mocking, and humiliating comments are sexual violence – a prohibited and punishable act."
-- WE ESPECIALLY ADDRESS OUR COLLEAGUES FROM THE OPPOSITION ERA WHO HAVE FOUND THEMSELVES IN THE STRUCTURES OF THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT, INCLUDING SECURITY SERVICES, WITH AN APPEAL TO CEASE TOLERATING DEGRADING PRACTICES - FURTHER IN THE APPEAL OF SOLIDARITY WOMEN: "We call upon those responsible for escalating protests, for permitting and encouraging law enforcement to use coercive measures, for tolerating degrading police practices during detentions, to cease acts of physical and psychological violence against our fellow citizens. We direct this appeal particularly to our colleagues from the opposition era who have found themselves in the structures of the current government, including the security services. Colleagues! Are you not ashamed that peers of your children or grandchildren are being treated today by your order and at your instigation in a way that the totalitarian authorities once used against us? Is this how you want to be remembered by this generation? A government that uses force against the weakest does not deserve to be a government."
https://siedlecka.blog.polityka.pl/2020/08/14/jak-wam-nie-wstyd/
-- PHOTO. Sanja Iveković's work - 'Forgotten Women of Solidarity.' It is a clear commentary on the male perspective in writing history and a voice for restoring the rightful place to women who were active in 'Solidarity.' American historian Shana Penn also did this in her book 'Solidarity's Secret,' and recently Marta Dzido in her book 'Women of Solidarity' and the film 'Solidarity According to Women.'
-- TOMASZ SAKIEWICZ ON THE REVOLUTION THAT WILL FAIL LIKE MARXIST FOLLIES: "We are dealing with a revolution that allows Catholics to be beaten and humiliated and prohibits any consequences if people bearing the LGBT sign break the law. And this is not about any rights for homosexuals, because they can feel like victims of this revolution. It's about destroying social norms, leading to the collapse of our civilization and replacing it with vague ideas about reconstructing society. Is this dangerous? Yes. Will they win? In my opinion, no. They will break their teeth on Poland, just like the Bolsheviks did a hundred years ago. Poles are very patient, but they have seen a lot. And they certainly don't like it when something is done by force. This revolution will fail like all other Marxist follies. All that will remain is shame among those who were deluded by it."
https://niezalezna.pl/346060-polamia-sobie-na-nas-zeby
-- IS BODNAR THE LAST OMBUDSMAN? - JAKUB BODZIONY IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: "Although the standard of living for Poles has improved over the last 5 years, the destructive changes in the area of democracy and the rule of law are a real systemic drama. Adam Bodnar pointed out that the only barriers to government abuses are currently the common courts and independent media. However, PiS has recently indicated that it intends to make further changes in these areas in the autumn, which will mean an attempt at further centralization of power. Furthermore, the next Ombudsman – if elected at all – will probably no longer actively control the actions taken by the government and the police. Then PiS's power will become even more unfettered."
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/08/14/adam-bodnar-ostatni-rzecznik-praw-obywatelskich/
-- GIVING RAISES IS NOT ONLY POLITICALLY STUPID BUT ALSO UNETHICAL - BARTOSZ KOCEJKO IN OKO.press: "Meanwhile, MPs want to vote on a bill that shows they completely fail to grasp what is happening in Poland right now. OKO.press reminds MPs: we are in a crisis, people are losing their jobs and livelihoods en masse. Due to the intensifying epidemic, it is unknown if we are not facing further lockdowns that will hit society. Giving raises now is not only politically stupid – it is unethical."
https://oko.press/nocny-projekt-ogromnych-podwyzek-dla-poslow-ministrow-prezydenta/
-- RAFAŁ WOŚ ON LIVING WITH THE PANDEMIC - writes in Tygodnik Powszechny: "So what should be done? Giannitsarou and Toxvaerd recommend small, grassroots actions: maintaining optimal social distancing, preferring local solutions where possible, and targeted restrictions if necessary. In short: we will be functioning according to the new principle of 'as normal as possible' for some time. Perhaps this is not extremely comforting. But on the other hand, isn't it better to be aware that we will have to somehow come to terms with the virus, rather than complete uncertainty about what tomorrow will bring and flailing wildly from one extreme to another?"
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/a-jesli-wirus-z-nami-zostanie-164490
-- MARTOSZ WĘGLARCZYK ON TRUMP'S SUCCESS IN THE MIDDLE EAST: "Another big winner of this event is Donald Trump. Americans averted a diplomatic catastrophe that would have been the annexation of parts of the West Bank by Israel, but at the same time increased Israel's security by convincing another Arab state to normalize relations with Jerusalem. The biggest loser, of course, is the Palestinians, who are losing another ally in the Arab world. However, Arab leaders have treated Palestinians for decades as a bargaining chip at best in relations with Israel, and at worst – as a force replacing themselves in subsequent conflicts with Israel. It is much easier to send Palestinians to fight the Israeli army than one's own soldiers."
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/to-wielki-sukces-amerykanskiej-dyplomacji-i-samego-donalda-trumpa-opinia/myfxx28,79cfc278
-- BIRTHDAYS: Marek Matuszewski.
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