state of play: 01/23/2020

Game State: Davos Corridors: Morawiecki Nears Poland and France, Szpala/Wroński: PO's Chances Even, Siemoniak Hopes for a Runoff, Bielecki: Yad Vashem is No Russian Success, Fijołek: The KRS List Issue Undermines State Authority

Łukasz Mężyk

-- BRUNO LE MAIRE, FRENCH MINISTER OF FINANCE, SPOKE AT A PANEL WITH PRIME MINISTER MORAWIECKI AT POLISH HOUSE IN DAVOS ABOUT POLAND'S IMPORTANCE TO FRANCE: “– As you know, President Macron's visit to Poland is approaching. This is a very important visit for us, for our shared history. Poland is very important to us; it is currently among the strongest EU states.” https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/01/22/francuski-minister-finansow-na-panelu-z-morawieckim-o-wizycie-macrona-to-bardzo-wazna-wizyta-dla-nas-dla-naszej-wspolnej-historii-polska-jest-dla-nas-bardzo-wazna-jest-obecnie-w-gronie-najsilniejs/ -- THE PRIME MINISTER, IN THE PRESENCE OF LE MAIRE, STATED THAT POLAND IS SEEKING ALLIES IN FRANCE AND GERMANY IN THE FIGHT AGAINST TAX HAVENS: “Here, we fully agree with France, Germany, and what the OECD says. Poland is ready to engage with other EU countries and institutions. I couldn't agree more with Bruno on the role of this phenomenon in fueling populism in Europe.” https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/01/22/francuski-minister-finansow-na-panelu-z-morawieckim-o-wizycie-macrona-to-bardzo-wazna-wizyta-dla-nas-dla-naszej-wspolnej-historii-polska-jest-dla-nas-bardzo-wazna-jest-obecnie-w-gronie-najsilniejs/ -- DAVOS CORRIDORS - FRANCE WANTS TO BE A LEADER IN THIS MATTER TOGETHER WITH POLAND - WE HEAR FROM CLOSE ASSOCIATES OF PRIME MINISTER MORAWIECKI IN DAVOS: *“Le Maire was very impressed by the PIE report – especially the indication of how much other EU countries are losing. He said it was a very important report and that because it doesn't focus only on the Polish perspective, it will be read very carefully in France. On the occasion of Macron's visit, the French will gladly announce joint actions with Poland to ensure fair taxation in the EU. These actions began in the summer of 2019 when PMM sent a letter on this matter to all EU leaders. Next week in Warsaw, there will be a meeting of experts from finance ministries to finalize the draft of a joint EU declaration against tax fraud. The final text is not yet decided, but it appears that France wants to be a leader in this matter together with Poland. PMM said he would gladly share the leadership role – as long as this project is implemented and the EU starts fighting it in earnest, because it is key to an ambitious EU budget.”* -- MORE ON POLAND'S OFFENSIVE REGARDING TAX SOLIDARITY AND THE EVENT PROMOTING THE POLISH ECONOMIC INSTITUTE'S REPORT ON LOSSES INCURRED BY THE EUROPEAN UNION DUE TO TAX AVOIDANCE: https://300polityka.pl/biznes/2020/01/22/premier-na-panelu-z-francuskim-ministrem-finansow-w-davos-ke-powinna-chwycic-byka-za-rogi-w-sprawie-unikania-podatkow-i-rajow-podatkowych-to-rocznie-drugi-budzet-ue-jestesmy-z-prezydentem-macronem/ **** -- TOMASZ BIELECKI WRITES IN RZ THAT THE CONFERENCE AT YAD VASHEM IS NOT A RUSSIAN SUCCESS AT ALL: “America is very disappointed by the avoidable and unnecessary boycott of one of our strong allies by another of our strong allies. It is very difficult to critically assess President Duda's decision to refrain from participating in the ceremonies – Tom Rose, an advisor to Vice President Pence, told Bloomberg. Of the 49 leaders who came to Jerusalem, only Putin's arrival had the status of a bilateral visit. This allows him a true tour of Israel. Most of the other leaders prefer to shorten their stay to a minimum. The President of Lithuania canceled his participation at the last minute. As did the President of the World Jewish Congress, Ronald Lauder.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/301229903-Bielecki-Izrael-pozwolil-Putinowi-grac-ofiarami-Holokaustu.html -- THE OPPOSITION SHOULD SUPPORT THE PRESIDENT - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “In the face of Putin's propaganda attacks on Poland, the opposition should demonstrate a state-centric attitude and stand by Andrzej Duda. This is what the national interest requires. (...) Now is not the time to criticize our president. There are matters that should be excluded from party divisions. The Polish political class should stand by the President of the Republic of Poland and, for the good of Poland, speak with one voice, without undermining the authority of the state. State-centrism should supersede partisanship. In moments like this, we all take an exam on Poland's national interest.” https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/301229895-Nizinkiewicz-Prezydentowi-nalezy-sie-wsparcie.html -- OVERESTIMATING RUSSIA IS THE SAME MISTAKE AS UNDERESTIMATING IT - ZBIGNIEW PARAFIANOWICZ IN DZIENNIK GAZETA PRAWNA: “When assessing Russia's actions, underestimating it is a mistake, but overestimating it is an even bigger mistake. This also applies to the field of historical warfare. Russia has strong security structures and relatively effective diplomacy. But it is not an omnipotent empire capable of imposing its rules on everyone and everywhere. The state ruled by Putin is bogged down in Syria and Ukraine. It is unable to discipline Alyaksandr Lukashenka. It has suffered significant failures in intelligence wars, such as the failed assassination attempt on Sergei Skripal or the bizarre coup attempt in Montenegro.” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/opinie/artykul-prasowy/6426140,wspolpraca-z-hitlerem-putin-polska-holokaust-rosja.html -- RUSSIAN REINFORCEMENTS FOR DUDA - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Vladimir Putin's historical lies about Poland strongly support the presidential campaign of Law and Justice. He does this consciously because PiS governments in Poland are exceptionally convenient for him. (...) For any leader of the ruling camp, fighting for a renewed mandate, a war with an external, clear opponent is a wonderful gift. Many leaders themselves have instigated wars to stay in power. Such tactics disarm the opposition and force unity against an external threat, and people gather around the leader. It also allows for distraction from domestic issues.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25623791,polityka-historyczna-putina-to-wsparcie-dla-dudy-w-kampanii.html -- FIRST AND FOREMOST, WE MUST CARE ABOUT POLAND AND POLES - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “We, after a terrible war, half a century of communism, and over a dozen years of Balcerowicz's social anesthesia, have different priorities. And we should all take advantage of the attention drawn by Ms. Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska: yes, we care about Poland. We care deeply. We live for it, for it we must be ready – like all previous generations – to work and fight. If this feeling fades, it leads to mass migration and tolerance for grand theft. Of course, by cooperating and collaborating with others, also acting for the common good of the region, Europe, and the world. And this is happening. But first and foremost, we must care about Poland and Poles.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/483451-zalezy-nam-na-polsce-to-powinno-byc-haslo-obozu-polskiego -- THIS IS NOT HOW STATE AUTHORITY AND EFFECTIVENESS ARE BUILT - MARCIN FIJOŁEK ON THE REVOCATION OF JUSZCZYSZYN'S DELEGATION: "If we take the state's role in the executive branch seriously, then such incidents as the revocation of Judge Paweł Juszczyszyn's delegation mid-mission – or more broadly, the publication of support lists for KRS candidacies – cannot happen. Not only does it undermine the authority of the state, but it reduces its institutions to the role of sparring partners for various interest groups with whom a dispute is currently being waged. Emails sent at 6:30 AM with a withdrawn delegation, legal arguments (like GDPR) used in publishing names, and finally, a lack of basic predictability and consistency in decisions made – all of this only provides additional and real ammunition for the opponents of the current government. This is not how state authority and effectiveness are built, and in the long run, it is harmful – even if the background of this story involves concern about preventing legal dualism in courts (questioning the status of judges by other judges) and even if today the entire matter has no impact on the election polls.” -- STATE EFFECTIVENESS IS VERIFIED IN SMALL MATTERS - FIJOŁEK CONTINUES: “And even if Prime Minister Morawiecki and President Duda were to flex their political muscles in Davos or Tokyo, showcasing the efficiency of our economy and institutions, in some dimensions it's still improvisation, emotions, and nervous reactivity that too often take over – and then the heavyweight state quickly drops to featherweight and borders on the grotesque. State effectiveness is sometimes verified in small matters, and perhaps primarily in them. https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/483240-panstwo-wagi-ciezkiej-musi-byc-profesjonalne-i-przewidywalne -- 38:38 PAD VS. SUM OF OPPOSITION CANDIDATES - ACCORDING TO A KANTAR SURVEY: “38% of respondents declaring participation in the elections would vote for the incumbent president. Duda's biggest rival – Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska (Civic Coalition) – enjoys 20% support. The next places were taken by: Robert Biedroń (The Left, 7%), Szymon Hołownia (independent, 6%), Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz (PSL, 4%), Krzysztof Bosak (Confederation, 1%).” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25624418,sondaz-prezydencki-andrzej-duda-z-przewaga-nad-konkurentami.html -- ANDRZEJ DUDA AND THE STRATEGY OF DOUBLE WEAKNESS - EDWIN BENDYK in Krytyka: “Analysts have described the logic of mobilizing the hard-right electorate many times, polls consistently confirm that this logic works. Such a campaign idea is not an expression of strength, but of the weakness of the right-wing camp, which draws from the even greater weakness of the opposition. By maximally mobilizing its loyal electorate while simultaneously demobilizing the opposition's electorate, counting on the latter being the best ally on the issue. These are not futile calculations, because the opposition's electorate, although a majority, is dispersed – many groups are vying for its souls and votes. These are poorly disciplined groups, as shown by the infamous absence of opposition MPs during the first day of proceedings on the gag law. And moreover, they are reactive, easily drawn into a game on scorched earth around topics managed by PiS, incapable of imposing their own agenda.” -- BENDYK WRITES ABOUT THE POSTMODERN, NEO-FEUDAL, NETWORKED STATE BEING BUILT BY PIS: “In fact, this means saying goodbye to the modern state, which will be replaced by a postmodern, neo-feudal networked state, some kind of neo-Sarmatian republic, where power, instead of residing in institutions, which are effectively and systematically dismantled, is dispersed in a network connecting party cliques and influence groups, integrating with the growing oligarchy of state asset managers.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/andrzej-duda-wybory-parlamentarne-edwin-bendyk/ -- WILL SIEMONIACK SUCCEED IN FORCING A RUNOFF IN THE CIVIC PLATFORM? - Iwona Szpala, Paweł Wroński: “Will the Civic Platform elections end in the first round? Borys Budka's supporters claim it's possible. Tomasz Siemoniak is playing for an extension of the competition. – There are fears that with Budka, the Platform will divide into two camps – we hear. Siemoniak presents himself as a guarantor of unity in the party. – Every day is a gain for us, Siemoniak's campaign is gaining momentum, while Budka, who has been a candidate for many weeks, lacks that freshness – says a PO politician.” -- WHAT WILL THE TURNOUT RESULTS IN THE PLATFORM ELECTIONS SAY ABOUT PO'S CONDITION - CONTINUES THE NEWSPAPER'S AUTHORS: “In 2015, when Grzegorz Schetyna was elected (and Siemoniak and Budka withdrew their candidacies), only 52% voted in the 33,000-strong PO. – If fewer than 15,000 participate this time, it will reflect poorly on the party's mobilization, especially before the presidential elections – say PO members. The unofficial results of the first round may be known on Saturday evening.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25624379,budka-czy-siemoniak-platforma-w-sobote-wybiera-nowego-lidera.html -- DUDA HAS GONE TOO FAR IN HIS RHETORIC - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “This would be a good solution for the opposition, as they have not a moment to lose. It is more important than who will lead PO, whether the opposition will seize the slim chance it has today to win the presidential elections. Andrzej Duda's emotional involvement in the attack on Polish judges or statements that can be interpreted with a degree of malice as anti-Western or anti-EU show that the outcome of the presidential elections is still not decided. Duda certainly hoped to take over the Confederation's electorate, but in his radical rhetoric, he went too far, exposing himself to moderate centrist voters.” -- SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON THE PLATFORM CONDEMNING ITSELF TO THE ROLE OF ETERNAL COMMENTATOR: “But another problem associated with the presidential elections faces PO. The dynamics of the campaign mean that Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, as a candidate for the highest office in the state, is becoming the face of the Civic Platform today. She is the one commenting on another court dispute, the moves of Polish diplomacy, Putin's attacks, etc. The new leader – whoever he or she becomes – will begin their term somewhat in her shadow. Psychologically, this might be an uncomfortable situation for them. Nevertheless, it would be good for the public opinion to learn fairly quickly what the new PO leader's stance is on the most important issues facing Poland, and not just why they were critical of Grzegorz Schetyna. Let them outline a vision not only of what PO should look like, but also our country – in five, ten, or fifteen years. Without this, PO will be condemned to the role of a commentator for a long time, rather than a main actor on the Polish political stage.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/301229908-Szuldrzynski-Wybory-wazniejsze-i-mniej-wazne.html -- BARTŁOMIEJ SIENKIEWICZ WRITES THAT THE PLATFORM LACKS COURAGE - ON RZ OPINIONS: “We need not only new leadership, we need courage. The courage to act against dragons, the courage to defend our positions. But this can only be achieved when we know what we are defending, or – even more importantly – what we want for Poland's tomorrow. As the voters have shown us, being anti-PiS is no longer enough. They showed this in the parliamentary elections and by the lack of growth in new electorate. New voters, however, have joined other opposition parties, smaller and weaker than PO.” -- TAKE AWAY THE TOYS THAT DEGENERATE PUBLIC LIFE FROM POLITICS - SIENKIEWICZ ON THE NEED TO PRIVATIZE COMPANIES AND LIQUIDATE TVP - THE FUTURE IS WON WITH COURAGE: “We should take away from politics the toys with which it degenerates social life and the rules of a democratic state. Privatize State Treasury companies – profits from state ownership do not compensate for the destruction these companies cause as a place of spoils. Liquidate public media, because they are beyond repair. Create a system for breaking through 'glass ceilings' – because so far they are only broken by people from political parties. Restore clear rules of accountability for politicians for their omissions and harmful actions, establish a civil service not subject to political elections. PO should be the leader of these changes. If this is liberalism, then we should be strong liberals and not be ashamed of it. And above all, not to fear our path, our distinctiveness. The closure of the debate for candidates for the PO chairman to the media was a symbol of this fear. And yet, it concerns a party that is voted for by almost one-third of active voters. The future is won with courage, not calculation or fear.” https://www.rp.pl/Publicystyka/301229916-Bartlomiej-Sienkiewicz-Przyszlosc-zdobywa-sie-odwaga.html -- PIOTR TRUDNOWSKI ON THE CONSEQUENCES OF LEGAL CHAOS - ARE THE ELECTIONS VALID? - he writes in Klub Jagielloński: “A logical consequence of adopting the way of thinking proposed by the participants of the 'judicial revolt' – and this will likely be confirmed soon by the 'old' chambers of the Supreme Court – seems to be the recognition that… the validity of the parliamentary elections of October 13, 2019, has not been established as required by the Electoral Code. Since the presumption of legality of state organs was negated at the basis of the revolt, perhaps here too we should recognize that today we have a 'non-Sejm,' a 'non-Senate,' and 'non-laws' passed by parliament. Along with the project of the widely criticized Senate 'repair law,' this is further evidence that legal chaos is becoming acutely dangerous and we are on the verge of anarchy. A legal exit from this state is possible only through the path of a constitutional 'new beginning,' preferably approved in a referendum.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2020/01/22/czy-wybory-do-sejmu-i-senatu-sa-wazne-jak-wojna-o-sadownictwo-prowadzi-nas-do-anarchii/ -- THE DECISIVE BATTLE FOR JUDICIAL INDEPENDENCE - front page of GW. -- BATTLE OF LEGAL TRICKS - front page of DGP. -- MAGDA BIEJAT DISAGREES WITH KRYSTYNA JANDA'S DIAGNOSES - AS SHE SAYS IN AN INTERVIEW WITH JACEK GĄDKIEWICZ ON GAZETA.PL: “You just need to ask any sociologist. We are very conditioned, for example, by coming from a home with educated parents, full of books. A child from such a family, even if they end up in a terrible school, will manage. And if they are less talented, parents will usually do everything to pull them through. Children of less educated parents don't have that comfort. Of course, you can be a genius, you can have a stroke of luck, you can be in the right place at the right time, but the fact remains that in post-communist rural areas, there are simply fewer of these chances. And a modern state should provide a decent start not only to geniuses, but to everyone without exception.” -- BIEJAT, WHEN ASKED BY GĄDEK WHERE SUCH VIEWS AS JANDA'S COME FROM: “Because such views have been instilled in us for years. Schools. Politicians. Pundits. The belief that everyone is the architect of their own fate regardless of where they come from and what school they attended, has been hammered into us for years. Unfortunately, this is simply untrue. This is confirmed by hard data and analyses of life trajectories.” -- LEGALIZE MARIJUANA, DELEGALIZE "MALPKI" (small alcohol bottles) - BIEJAT CONTINUES: “I believe that marijuana should be legalized. And at the same time, we should counteract alcohol addiction more strongly. All studies indicate that alcohol is a greater threat. The sale of 'malpki' must be banned, and restrictions on alcohol sales must be introduced so that it cannot be bought at any time at a gas station. Alcohol is now too easily accessible.” http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25616170,magdalena-biejat.html -- 4 YEARS AGO, Włodzimierz Czarzasty was elected chairman of the Democratic Left Alliance. -- BIRTHDAYS: Henryk Samsonowicz, Michał Kleiber, Zbigniew Niemczycki, Jan Maria Jackowski, Katarzyna Szymańska-Borginon.

Łukasz Mężyk