state of play: 01/15/2020

STATE OF PLAY: Flis on the Senate model in presidential elections: PiS fared worse where a PSL candidate ran, Fijołek: PO is a large facade with nothing behind it apart from the talents of individual politicians, Fakt attacks Sasin

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-- HOW POLAND HAS CHANGED IN THE 21ST CENTURY - KEY INVESTMENTS 20 YEARS - WOW ARTICLE FROM 300GOSPODARKA: http://300gospodarka.pl/snowball/megainwestycje-ostatnich-20-lat/ -- HUNTERS WILL BE LORDS OF THE FORESTS - DOMINIK UHLIG IN GW. -- FAKT ATTACKS JACK SASIN AND CALLS HIS DEPUTY MINISTERS A COURT: "What immense jealousy must stir the hearts of ministers at the sight of Jacek Sasin's grand court. No one in the offices has such splendor as he does. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has given him over 200 state treasury companies to manage, and as many as eight deputy ministers. No one in the government has such a grand court!" https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/wicepremier-jacek-sasin-jest-jak-krol-ma-swoj-dwor/ym4m0ew -- THE PLATFORM WAS REMINISCENT OF A CRUISER, ACCELERATED IN ITS YEARS OF PAST GLORY, SAILING BY INERTIA - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: "And this is precisely the greatest risk of the current process of changes in PO. Depersonalization and institutionalization are not enough if the opposition leaders have nothing new – and interesting – to say to Poles. Until now, the Platform resembled a cruiser that, accelerated in its years of past glory, sailed forward by inertia, and its reputation stemmed more from habit than from any brilliant ideas for opposition." -- IF THE NEW LEADER DOES NOT PROPOSE AN INTERESTING PROGRAM, IT WILL REMAIN THE MOST DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED RECEIVER OF A BANKRUPTCY ESTATE - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: "But that is already past. If the new leader does not give the party new momentum and propose an interesting program, it will become the most democratically elected receiver of a bankruptcy estate of a party that ruled for eight years and greatly changed Poland." https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/200119635-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Nie-sama-demokracja-partia-zyje.html -- PO IS A LARGE FACADE WITH NOTHING BEHIND IT APART FROM THE TALENTS OF INDIVIDUAL POLITICIANS - MARCIN FIJOŁEK: "Without malice and with all due respect to Schetyna's cabinet-behind-the-scenes skills, one cannot lead the largest opposition party, with a budget in the tens of millions of zlotys, eight provincial assemblies under control, and power at the level of several key largest city governments, in such a manner. If Platform trembles because of the assessments its politicians have read in 'Wyborcza' or 'Kultura Liberalna,' it is hard not to get the impression that PO is a large facade, behind which there is nothing more than the talents of individual politicians. Schetyna's decision thus appears even more forced, essentially a pretense, a bit like putting forward Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska as a prime ministerial candidate when just moments before, they declared their own aspirations to lead the government." -- SLEEPY, HELPLESS, SUBMISSIVE - FIJOŁEK CONTINUES: "The manner for which Siemoniak himself is responsible, as well as other candidates running for the leadership of Platform. And again – this is my addition – the whispers from outside are responsible for this: just as in the matter of Platform's leadership, so too regarding the adopted strategy, Czerska and other all-knowing advisors have too much influence in PO, not the politicians themselves; sleepy, helpless, submissive (with honorable exceptions). This can simply be felt." -- IN PLATFORM, THIS IS A MOMENT FOR RED ALERT AND WARNING BELLS - FIJOŁEK'S CONCLUSION: "Does Tomasz Siemoniak, Borys Budka, or any of the other candidates for the head of Platform answer these questions? Or is perhaps the only driving force the idea of gaining two or three percentage points from Law and Justice in the polls in the short term? One thing seems certain – for Platform, this is the last moment for a red alert and warning bells. Soon, they may become, as Jan Rokita aptly described it in 'Sieci,' a superfluous party. It is probably a long process, because money, structures, people, and political memory – all of this is valuable capital, but for now, PO's people are on the best course to squander it completely." https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/482022-wywiad-siemoniaka-pokazuje-ze-z-po-jest-gorzej-niz-kiepsko -- CHAOS IS VISIBLE IN PLATFORM - WŁADYSŁAW TEOFIL BARTOSZEWSKI IN CONVERSATION WITH ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: "It is astonishing. I am not a PO strategist, I cannot speak on its behalf. But it is visible that at this moment, there is a mood of tension and some chaos in the party. Ms. Kidawa-Błońska is not conducting a presidential pre-campaign. For now, she has carefully avoided debates with all her competitors." -- BARTOSZEWSKI ON KOSINIAK BEING THE MOST DANGEROUS FOR PIS: "The PSL chairman is very consistent, has a consistent line, but is a person of the rational and sensible center. Therefore, we are able to reach an agreement with both the left and the right. I was on television, where a man harmed by the courts appeared. He said that he participated in a debate organized by us on changes to the justice system, which only PiS, which is carrying out this destruction of the justice system, did not participate in. Instead, there were lawyers and injured parties. And this man, who has a very negative attitude towards how the courts function, said that PSL is the only party that enabled ordinary people to be heard and to intervene. Because we talk to everyone. I am convinced that if Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz reaches the second round of the elections, PiS will have a serious problem. He is the only candidate that PiS politicians fear." https://www.rp.pl/Polskie-Stronnictwo-Ludowe/301149919-Wladyslaw-Teofil-Bartoszewski-Przeciwnikami-w-I-turze-sa-kandydaci-opozycji.html -- JAROSŁAW FLIS ON THE OPPOSITION STRONGLY WINNING THE SENATE ELECTIONS: "But Andrzej Duda is still more than 6% short of victory. An analysis of the Senate election results in constituencies where PiS and opposition candidates competed indicates that PiS candidates received an average of 47.5% support, and opposition representatives received 52.5%. It's not as if PiS candidates in the Senate elections didn't try, and those who fought for seats in the Sejm put more effort into the election campaign. They tried just as hard. Only that in the Sejm, 43% gave a majority. In the Senate, 47.5% does not give a majority. Leading in polls, or even in the first round, can be an illusion. In 2002, in the local elections in Płock, after the first round, the incumbent mayor had 47%, and the best of his rivals, a PiS candidate, boasted only 19% support. But it was the PiS candidate who won in the second round. The winner received fewer votes in the second round than the incumbent president in the first." -- PIS FARED WORSE WHERE A PSL CANDIDATE RAN - FLIS CONTINUES: "Not everyone is as eager for elections as journalists on both sides (laughter). If you analyze the Senate election results, you can see that PiS fared worse where a PSL candidate ran. There is a part of the electorate that supposedly supports PiS for the Sejm, but yearns for the agrarianists and considers voting for their candidate. This was clearly visible in the 2018 local elections. Generally, opponents of PiS mobilized much more. But it wasn't always and everywhere like that. In Stalowa Wola, however, Lucjusz Nadbereźny won without any problems." -- DOES RESTORING NORMALITY REQUIRE ABNORMAL ACTIONS - FLIS CONTINUES: "Prime Minister Morawiecki repeatedly spoke of normality in his expose. He conjugated this word in all cases. Many would prefer that this be accompanied by any actions that could legitimize this message. For now, I understand that restoring normality requires abnormal actions. This is hardly a message that legitimizes the words that the government cares about normality. We will live and see how it works. I recall that Bronisław Komorowski also believed that he would win the presidential election by inertia. Today, we are wiser, because we know how that conviction ended. Certainly, those in power should take this warning to heart." https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/482114-wywiad-flis-w-kampanii-wyborczej-walka-bedzie-wyrownana -- SCHETYNA ON HIS DECISION - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/01/15 -- THE NUMBER ONE FROM WIELKOPOLSKA VOICE ON THE CONSEQUENCES OF BUDKA'S VICTORY FOR THE REGION: "– On the other hand, regional elections should constitutionally take place in two years. There won't be any earthquakes, presumably – predict local politicians. They also do not expect J. Jaśkowiak to be sidelined from national affairs. – Although he will likely be presented in a broader group of mayors, not as one of several local government officials, as was the case under Schetyna. However, Waldy Dzikowski and Rafał Grupiński will certainly strengthen their positions – states a Poznań politician. – Local power struggles, various factions, do not really matter. And the strength of a given politician is ultimately determined by the number of votes cast, not by any arrangements or cliques – responds J. Jaśkowiak." https://plus.gloswielkopolski.pl/wielkopolsce-dzialacze-po-postawia-na-borysa-budke-wesprze-go-wiekszosc-poslow-na-tomasza-siemoniaka-stawia-jacek-jaskowiak/ar/c1-14715494 -- SEBASTIAN KLAUZIŃSKI IN OKO PRESS ON THE VIRTUAL POLSKA'S INTERESTS: "WP no longer limits itself to publishing articles advertising goods, but promotes the Ministry of Justice and Zbigniew Ziobro's people. A few months ago, at a meeting with the portal's employees, Machała explained that Wirtualna Polska has 'many interests' with the Ministry of Justice. And that he would not demolish these 'interests' because the salaries of WP employees 'depend on them.' In practice, 'interests' with the ministry mean, on the one hand, censorship and blocking articles critical of Ziobro, and on the other hand, writing laudatory texts about the ministry under pseudonyms." https://oko.press/wirtualna-polska-ziobro-machala/ -- DGP ON THE CONFLICT OF INTEREST OF THE MINISTER OF FINANCE - as written by Bartek Godusławski: "Tadeusz Kościński does not intend to manage his shares, but he has not decided on a blind trust. He only presented his financial statement after becoming a minister. It turned out that through years of work in banking, he had accumulated significant savings. Cash alone amounted to PLN 1.1 million and almost 256,000 pounds, plus real estate and shares in a British fund. The head of the Ministry of Finance also has a substantial investment portfolio, consisting of shares in companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, bonds, and ETF investment funds – totaling PLN 3.56 million." https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykul-prasowy/6421809,koscinski-akcje-banki-resort-finansow.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Agnieszka Romaszewska-Guzy, Danuta Walewska, Paweł Stremski, Jacek Protas, Ewa Lieder, Jonny Daniels.

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