state of play: 09/10/2019
STATE OF PLAY: DGP: The Birth of 'Pisonomics', Minimum Wage Like 500+, GW: Entrepreneurs Will Weep, Grabowska: Kidawa Like Mazowiecki?, PKO BP to Support Ekstraklasa Clubs
-- AT NOON, THE EU COMMISSION WILL ANNOUNCE THE COMPOSITION OF THE NEW COMMISSION.
-- NEW THEATRE SEASON ON TVP: The number of theatre premieres on TVP throughout the season will increase to 30, of which 20 will be available to viewers on TVP1.
https://www.rp.pl/Teatr/309099947-Szekspir-forever-Czekajac-na-sensacje.html
-- TODAY AT 8:40 PM, 'SHAKESPEARE FOREVER' BY ANDRZEJ SEWERYN ON TVP KULTURA.
http://teatrtelewizji.vod.tvp.pl/43987864/szekspir-forever-10-wrzesnia-godz-2040-premiera
-- PKO BP WITH A NEW INJECTION FOR EKSTRAKLASA CLUBS: “Poland's largest bank is launching a crowdfunding-based program through which clubs can gain up to PLN 100 million over three years.”
-- CLUBS ARE TO PROMOTE PKO PRODUCTS: “The partnership program will involve clubs engaging in the promotion of the bank's products, such as personal accounts, cash loans, and mortgages. They will receive remuneration from PKO BP, which is the title sponsor of Ekstraklasa from this season. – We want the sporting level of the competition to rise on healthy foundations, and that's why we are giving clubs a solution that will help them strengthen their financial background, which is currently identified as one of the main barriers to the development of football in Poland – states Zbigniew Jagiełło, CEO of PKO BP.”
https://www.rp.pl/Banki/190909316-PKO-BP-poprawi-finansowa-forme-pilkarskiej-Ekstraklasy.html
-- EMILEWICZ DISTANCES HERSELF FROM THE IDEA OF INCREASING THE MINIMUM WAGE WITHOUT SAFEGUARDS FOR SMALL BUSINESSES - 300LIVE:https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/09/10/
-- PIS COMBATS ALL MANIFESTATIONS OF DEMOBILIZATION - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI REPORTS ON THE PIS CAMPAIGN STAFF PRESS BREAKFAST: “May God protect us from believing that everything has already been settled and decided. Then we will find ourselves in a situation that Adam Michnik painfully experienced after his famous statement about the nun and President Komorowski,” stated Joachim Brudziński. According to this politician, signs of demobilization detected within the PiS apparatus (“the conviction that things are going well and there's no need to try harder”) are being vigorously combated, and the party does not believe it has no one to lose to. The head of the PiS Executive Committee, Krzysztof Sobolewski, emphasized that the activity of the structures is monitored on an ongoing basis, and the lazy receive reprimands.”
-- THE OPPOSITION CANNOT COUNT ON RELAXATION IN PIS - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI'S CONCLUSION: “Overall impression – there is a prevailing sense that the ruling formation is on the right track to victory, but also a deep conviction that many a party in the past has ‘already celebrated prematurely.’ Therefore, the opposition probably cannot count on any relaxation within Law and Justice.”
https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/463056-mocny-przekaz-pis-niech-reka-boska-broni
-- PIS WANTS TO PLAY ON ITS OWN TERMS - MARCIN FIJOŁEK: “However, I think that after this interesting press breakfast organized by PiS campaign strategists (characteristically, it was open to representatives of media outlets from left to right), it is worth paying attention to one of the fundamental messages that Brudziński spoke about, and which is clearly visible in the ‘good change’ camp's policy over the past years, and especially months. It concerns playing on one's own terms when it comes to conducting daily politics, campaigns, topic selection, crisis response, and finally – enduring pressure.”
-- PIS SEES NO NEED FOR DEBATE - FIJOŁEK CONTINUES: “PiS politicians feel confident enough in this game according to new rules that, for example, they downplay the issue of electoral debates. And again – I understand the logic that Joachim Brudziński spoke about on Monday. Neither Prime Minister Morawiecki nor Chairman Kaczyński needs to debate with contenders for power (Grzegorz Schetyna, Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, etc.). Without the need (campaign, electoral), one dignifies the opponent, in some way authorizing their vision for Poland as an equal, concrete one that requires confrontation.”
-- A DEBATE SHOULD TAKE PLACE – THIS CANNOT BE SACRIFICED ON THE ALTAR OF CAMPAIGN INTERESTS - FIJOŁEK CONTINUES: “I don't know who is a real leader and who is a figurehead on the Civic Coalition side today, but I think that the incumbent prime minister should stand on solid ground (television) with a representative of the opposition (as a candidate for prime minister) and engage in a substantive battle of arguments. That it will promote Marshal Kidawa-Błońska's position? Perhaps. Or maybe it will turn out to be the opposite, because the knowledge of the state and its mechanisms, economic data, and finally – the narrative about Poland in 2019 – is, I feel, on the side of PiS, not KO. It would be bad, very bad, if such fundamental matters as the discussion of the most important politicians were once again sacrificed on the altar of electoral and campaign interests. Obviously, a debate on TVP with representatives of all committees will probably take place, but let's be honest – it's not the same thing.”
-- FIJOŁEK RELATES THE NEED FOR DEBATES TO THE SOCIAL VETO RIGHT: “Returning to the starting point and concluding: I understand that Law and Justice politicians, mindful of many bitter experiences, do not want to play in an orchestra conducted from a lair at Wiejska Street or conference rooms from Wiertnicza or Czerska. This is clear, understandable, and obvious to me – however, this does not change the fact that sometimes one has to shift and play at least part of the political match not on one's own field. And just as the ‘social veto right’ (copyright Jacek Karnowski) worked in the Kuchciński case, so too in the matter of debates it could be significant. But perhaps today's campaign does not need debates, but conventions and promises. It's a bit of a shame, but I guess we have to get used to it.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/463137-gra-pis-na-wlasnych-warunkach-oczywiste-plusy-i-maly-minus
-- ENTREPRENEURS WILL WEEP - LESZEK KOSTRZEWSKI AND PIOTR MĄCZYŃSKI IN GW ABOUT DRASTIC ZUS INCREASES: “An entrepreneur earning PLN 200,000 a year, instead of PLN 16,000, will have to pay over three times more to ZUS next year, i.e., about PLN 55,000. This is how PiS wants to raise money for social spending.”
-- PROFITABILITY WILL FALL - GW CONTINUES: “How likely is this? Certainly, the profitability of economic activity will suddenly drop sharply. Today, if someone sees that they are entering the second tax bracket, they often decide to set up a company. Instead of 32% PIT, they then pay a flat rate of 19%. It will suddenly not be profitable to switch from employment to a business for people who are at risk of the 30-fold increase.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,155287,25169685,pis-zapowiada-horrendalna-podwyzke-skladek-zus-przedsiebiorcy.html
-- PIS WANTS TO RUIN THE POLISH ECONOMY - PIOTR MĄCZYŃSKI AND LESZEK KOSTRZEWSKI IN A GW COMMENTARY: “So who will pay for PiS's election campaign? You will pay and you will pay. That is, all of us. For part of these decisions, we will pay soon (there will be high inflation), and for part (like the abolition of the contribution limit) in the future.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,155290,25173637,jak-pis-w-imie-wygranej-w-wyborach-chce-rozwalic-polska-gospodarke.html
-- THE BIRTH OF 'PISONOMICS' - THE MINIMUM WAGE IS TO REPEAT THE SUCCESS OF 500 PLUS - Klara Klinger, Marek Chądzyński, Bartek Godusławski, Grzegorz Osiecki, Patrycja Otto, Tomasz Żółciak in DGP: “PiS is playing for an independent majority in the Sejm. The path to this goal is the promise to raise the minimum wage – it is to repeat the campaign success of the 500 plus program. The party has conducted research on all its ideas, including the wage increase, and it turned out that it enjoys unconditional support. The only group that may not like such a rapid pace of growth is – obviously – employers. However, in the context of the election, they are not strategically important for PiS. Incidentally, it is clear that Jarosław Kaczyński's party, by planning to increase the minimum wage by almost 78% over five years, is making a gift mainly to the electorate from eastern Poland. There – according to GUS data for 2017 – the average gross monthly salary per employee in the micro-enterprise sector was between PLN 2.3 and 2.5 thousand gross and was the lowest in the entire country.”
-- THIS IS A RADICAL EXPERIMENT AND A NEW ECONOMIC DOCTRINE - THE DGP AUTHORS CONTINUE: “PiS expects that decreeing a very rapid increase in the minimum wage will force an increase in the standard of living. And a series of changes beneficial to the economy that will accompany it. However, the proposed path is so steep that it places the idea in the category of a radical experiment and a new economic doctrine that can be called 'pisonomics.' It assumes a radical shift in emphasis from redistribution to solidarity. Significantly more so than the 500 plus program, which is assessed negatively by liberal circles.”
-- DGP ON THE CONTEXT OF MINIMUM WAGE AND HOSPITAL DEBT: “Hospital directors are looking with concern at the announced minimum wage increase. Wage costs are the main item in hospital budgets. – And the number of employees working in hospitals earning the minimum wage is very large. This includes cleaning staff, ambulance drivers, medical secretaries, kitchen staff, some technical staff, as well as security – lists Krzysztof Żochowski, director of the Garwolin hospital. When the minimum wage was raised in 2017, it was the beginning of financial problems for medical facilities. Currently, hospital debt is at its highest in years.”
https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/1429363,pensja-minimalna-skutki-pis-program-wyborczy-ceny-firmy.html
-- MAREK TEJCHMAN IN DGP, A STRONG MESSAGE TO ENTREPRENEURS: HOW DID YOU GET INVOLVED TO PREVENT THIS? “And perhaps instead of complaining that the minimum wage increase will result in losses in competitiveness and liquidity, dear entrepreneurs and employers, think about what you have done over the years to prevent proposals like the one Jarosław Kaczyński made last weekend? Have you been sufficiently involved in public debate over the years? Have you supported Polish universities? Think tanks? Research institutes? Have you been able to commit your time, knowledge, and money to the country's political life? Not to push through one law or another, but to ensure that the state is better governed?”
https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/opinie/artykuly/607287,przedsiebiorcy-kaczynski-propozcyje-opinia.html
-- THIS COULD BE FATAL FOR MANY COMPANIES - KRZYSZTOF ADAM KOWALCZYK IN RZ: “The US-China dispute threatens a global recession. A no-deal Brexit could soon be the trigger for a crisis. A recession has already hit industry in Germany, our main trading partner. Therefore, the leap in the minimum wage forced by the PiS chairman could be fatal for many Polish companies. Especially those where the economic value generated by employees is below PLN 3-4 thousand. People will lose jobs where they can be replaced by machines. Just like recently in the security sector, where after the introduction of the hourly minimum wage, thousands of watchmen were replaced by monitoring systems.”
https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze-ekonomiczne/309099919-Smiercionosne-slodycze.html
-- FOR DISCUSSES THE DELEGALIZATION OF JOBS FOR THE WEAKEST - FOR ECONOMIST IN FORBES: “The Civil Development Forum has been highlighting problems associated with politicians decreeing the minimum wage for years. The reason is simple: the minimum wage means the delegalization of jobs for the weakest people, i.e., those who lack the qualifications to earn more. When the minimum wage is relatively low, and economic productivity is growing, its negative effects, affecting only a small number of people, can be difficult to notice. However, a minimum wage of around 60 percent of the average wage (as of 2019) will affect residents of eastern Poland and micro-enterprises, which may not be able to pay over PLN 3,600 per employee per month (total employer cost). Potentially, this will lead to an expansion of the grey economy.”
https://www.forbes.pl/opinie/program-pis-na-wybory-budzet-czeka-nowelizacja-i-deficyt/e8d7l3r
-- ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI ON THE FACT THAT THERE IS SOMETHING FRAUDULENT IN PIS'S PROPOSALS: “So the deception is once again evident. Either next year's budget will not be balanced after all, and the prime minister lied by announcing a historic success; or the thirteenth pension will be abolished and the prime minister lied by promising that the government would keep it. We are therefore receiving two contradictory messages, and we know that the head of government is openly deceiving us. And what? And again nothing happens – we simply continue to listen. Examples of such behavior, which are not followed by any consequences, can be multiplied. Let's not be surprised, then, that politicians are increasingly detached from the truth, and they treat us voters like fools. This will continue as long as we allow them to do so.”
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/09/10/pawlowski-obietnice-wyborcze-postprawda-polska/
-- KIDAWA LIKE SZYDŁO, ONLY FOR THE ELITES - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “The move is clear – similar to Jarosław Kaczyński's trump card with Beata Szydło four years ago. The leader of Civic Platform, like the PiS leader then, does not have good poll numbers. Therefore, he wants to focus the campaign on a new face. Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska seems to fit this role at first glance and is intended to be a magnet for liberal-left voters. Well-born, a representative of Warsaw elites, very liberal on worldview issues.”
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/kidawa-czyli-szydlo-dla-elit-160282
-- PIS SHOWS APPRECIATION FOR WORKING FAMILIES - MIROSŁAWA GRABOWSKA, HEAD OF CBOS, IN A CONVERSATION WITH JAKUB BODZIONY IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “It's not so much about money, but about the way to appreciate large families living in modest conditions. The narrative is that the authorities are providing money not to 'buy electoral support,' but because they appreciate and care. The categories of beneficiaries of various PiS government social policies are no longer the 'moher berets,' 'dark masses,' and 'Januszes and Grażynas' stigmatized in the past, but hard-working families living in modest conditions and raising children in modest conditions. These families, forming the core of Polish society, deserve recognition.”
-- EVEN TEFLON GETS SCRATCHED, IT TOOK PLATFORM OBYWATELSKA 7 YEARS - PROF. GRABOWSKA CONTINUES IN KL: “Even a Teflon pan gets scratched over time. Critical assessments of these behaviors have a wider reach than support for the opposition, but indeed – support for the government is not falling. It's hard to say how long this will last. In the case of Civic Platform, nothing harmed it for almost 7 years.”
-- SCHETYNA AS A SYMBOL OF PO'S BAD TIMES - GRABOWSKA CONTINUES IN KL: “It is an accurate decision because Grzegorz Schetyna himself has a low level of public trust and a reputation as a ruthless politician, including towards his own people. And he is treated as a symbol of Civic Platform's bad times.”
-- KIDAWA LIKE MAZOWIECKI? - GRABOWSKA CONTINUES IN A CONVERSATION WITH BODZIONY: “Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska does not spread hate, does not shout, she speaks in a moderate way, and perhaps it is precisely this 'strength of calm,' as with Tadeusz Mazowiecki, that will distinguish her in this very brutal political game. Everyone is asking if this decision did not come too late. Let me remind you that Minister Elżbieta Rafalska, who was the face of the government's flagship program, was not recognized by 26 percent of respondents as late as May this year! So there is very little time indeed.
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/09/10/cbos-janusze-grazyny-500-miroslawa-grabowska/
-- JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL ON THE CALCULATIONS OF PIS'S MINOR COALITION PARTNERS, THAT THEY WILL BE NEEDED FOR A MAJORITY: “For Ziobro, the optimal situation would be one where PiS does not have a majority in the Sejm without the sabers of Solidarna Polska. The same for Gowin. The latest polls suggest around 240 seats for the right-wing list, so it might turn out that arithmetically Ziobro or Gowin and his MPs will not be needed to form a majority for the next government. – Even then, however, there will be no split or expulsion of Ziobro or Gowin from the coalition, because it would be detrimental to PiS itself. However, their negotiating position will then be weaker, adds our interlocutor.”
-- WE WOULD PREFER TO BE THE DECIDING VOTE - A POROZUMIENIE POLITICIAN IN GAZETA.PL: “Says a member of Porozumienie: – We would prefer to be the deciding vote in the next Sejm. Unfortunately, that's how Nowogrodzka is arranging it, so that PiS gets its way. The chairman is not so naive as to let us grow too much.”
http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25173861,j-kaczynski-nie-jest-naiwny-wiec-pis-wyjdzie-na-swoje-ale.html
-- BIRTHDAYS: Stanisław Gomułka, Tomasz Matynia, Aleksander Łuczak, Stanisław Kracik, Andrzej Dera, Elżbieta Komorowska, Dominik Uhlig, Tomasz Terlikowski, Bartłomiej Radziejewski, Jacek Kapica, Łukasz Gibała.
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Poland 2050 Parliamentary Club Elects Representatives to the Party's National Council. Hennig-Kloska Publishes the List
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