state of play: 08/09/2019

STATE OF PLAY: Zaremba: The Reaction Proves One Thing: PiS Isn't 100% Sure of Victory, Szczerek: Why Don't You Want to Be a Normal European Right-Wing? Nizinkiewicz: PSL with Kukiz as the Swing Vote

Łukasz Mężyk

-- TRAILER FOR VEGA'S FILM - SZYDŁO FEEDS THE CHICKENS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jTZgRj1D0_4 -- ELECTION OF THE MARSHAL AT 3 PM, ELŻBIETA WITEK IS LIKELY TO BE CHOSEN, AND MARIUSZ KAMIŃSKI WILL REPLACE HER AT THE MINISTRY OF INTERIOR AND ADMINISTRATION: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/08/09 -- PIS IS NOT ONE HUNDRED PERCENT SURE OF ITS VICTORY - PIOTR ZAREMBA: “PiS's prolonged delay in reacting to the so-called Kuchciński affair, followed by a last-minute crisis resolution with the resignation of the Sejm Marshal, in the presence of President Jarosław Kaczyński himself, proves one thing: PiS is not one hundred percent sure of its victory. If he could have, Kaczyński would have kept the Marshal. He even argued with his critics during a press conference. However, he realized he couldn't stop the avalanche. The decision was made at an extraordinary meeting of the leadership the previous day. As late as Tuesday, confused PiS politicians defended Kuchciński after his apologies and downplayed the issue.” -- BRUDZIŃSKI HAS A BETTER GRASP OF SENTIMENT - CONTINUES ZAREMBA: “Indeed, some individuals are a bit more independent. The party's first reaction other than biting their tongues came last weekend. Calls for Kuchciński's apology were heard from his own camp. This was clearly initiated by Joachim Brudziński, who is responsible for the campaign and has a better grasp of public sentiment than most of his colleagues. But then there was another regression. They again tried to guess what the president was thinking.” -- THE MISTAKE OF INFALLIBILITY IS TAKING ITS TOLL - CONTINUES ZAREMBA: “In reality, the discussion should not only be about the planes. It should also be about whether Kaczyński, convinced of his infallibility, hasn't appointed individuals who are not up to their tasks. Not long ago, PiS members were convinced that this didn't matter. Even if their leader appointed a fool to a crucial state position, they wouldn't lose anything because the party pursued the right policy. This is the mistake that is now taking its toll.” https://polskatimes.pl/piotr-zaremba-lekcja-dla-pis-z-historii-upadku-kuchcinskiego/ar/c1-14338071/2 -- WHY AREN'T YOU NORMAL RIGHT-WINGERS BUT ACT LIKE A GANG OF FOOLS - ZIEMOWIT SZCZEREK CRITICIZES: “I truly don't understand why you don't want to be a normal European right-wing, with whom one can disagree but with whom one competes within a pluralistic democracy? Why must you instead behave like a gang of fools who have taken the city and now want to burn it down, steal it, murder their enemies, and violate their women? And you still say this is all for the good of the 'sovereign'? Is the other half of society, whom you call the worse sort, animalistic elements, etc., who oppose you, you and your hacking at reality with an axe, not sovereign? If you want to stay in power, don't make the biggest mistake of the liberals. Engage in self-criticism. Self-criticism will set you free. I criticize liberalism when it is soulless. I criticize the left when it exhibits herd mentality and disrespect for individualism. I criticize you too when you do both at once. It's a democracy, and you are in charge. Bear it, as Michał Roemer wrote to Piłsudski. If you claim to be Christian democrats, then behave like Christian democrats.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/szczerek-za-co-jestem-wdzieczny-pis-owi/ -- PIS HAS FALLEN VICTIM TO ITS OWN MORALIZING - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “PiS has fallen into the worst possible trap – its own moralizing. We constantly hear from the ruling party's politicians, especially from Jarosław Kaczyński himself, that PiS is the defender of Christianity and traditional values that are under attack in Poland. But it was precisely PiS, and especially Kuchciński, who turned out to be the one who betrayed principles such as truthfulness, modesty, or simple decency. Adorning oneself with the robes of morality in such a situation smacks of unbelievable hypocrisy.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/190809455-Szuldrzynski-o-dymisji-Kuchcinskiego-PiS-padl-ofiara-wlasnego-moralizatorstwa.html -- IT'S NOT ABOUT OCTOPUS, IT'S ABOUT AN OCTOPUS - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: “There is another important matter. The costs of HEAD flights, which involved half of the state services, are to the 'octopus dishes' criticized by PiS to their predecessors as an 18-meter giant squid is to those octopus dishes on a plate in the Amber Room. Whether there was a gigantic waste of public money should be investigated by the prosecutor's office, and Marshal Kuchciński, as well as those who benefited from unjustified privileges, should face at least financial consequences.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25069509,kuchcinski-odchodzi-ale-to-nie-konczy-sprawy-bo-to-nie-osmiorniczki.html -- PIS IS REPEATING AN INSINCERE MANEUVER FOR THE SECOND TIME - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK: “Although in the spring of 2018, Kaczyński managed to save PiS's ratings, he himself proved that the promised modesty of power was a sham, just for show. And the audience doesn't like to be fooled. Not even the president's core electorate. The 2018 maneuver may not succeed this time because it is now known that it was insincere. And insincerity before elections is a costly mistake. Perhaps worth a few percentage points of votes?” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25071256,pis-drugi-raz-wszedl-do-tej-samej-rzeki-jak-wiadomo-lepiej.html -- THEY ARE SQUEEZING THE COUNTRY LIKE A LEMON - MONIKA OLEJNIK IN GW: “He once said: we must be modest. And this is what modesty looks like. Byzantium, Byzantium, Byzantium. They are squeezing the country like a lemon and pretending it's not them, but the juicer, i.e., Donald Tusk. The Marshal is playing dumb. He claims he didn't break the law or customs. Not only does he lie himself, but he also involved the Sejm Information Center, which first covered up his trips and then misled public opinion. Either they did it to curry favor, or the second-highest person in the country ordered them to hide the truth.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25067903,czy-dymisje-w-polsce-sa-mozliwe.html -- KACZYŃSKI RECOGNIZED THAT KUCHCIŃSKI DID NOT TELL HIM THE WHOLE TRUTH - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ: https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/kulisy-dymisji-marka-kuchcinskiego-kaczynski-poczul-sie-oszukany/1773vzn -- THE RESIGNATION WAS LATE BUT ALLOWS FOR MORE EFFICIENT CRISIS MANAGEMENT - JAKUB BODZIONY IN KL: “Undoubtedly, however, the resignation, although late, allows the authorities to manage the crisis more effectively. For the opposition, the key question remains whether they will be able to build a broader political narrative on this affair. And whether they will be able to convince voters that such pathologies will not occur under their rule.” -- A SOPHISTICATED REVENGE OF NITRAS - CONTINUES BODZIONY: “Otherwise, the entire #KuchcińskiTravel affair will remain merely a sophisticated personal revenge of MP Sławomir Nitras for the numerous financial penalties imposed on him by the departing Marshal. A revenge made even sweeter by the fact that it occurred almost exactly on Marek Kuchciński's 69th birthday.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/08/09/kuchcinski-dymisja-podroze-komentarz-bodziony/ -- THE OPPOSITION RECEIVED A VALUABLE GIFT ON THE EVE OF THE CAMPAIGN - JAKUB MAJMUREK: “How much of this will translate into election results is hard to say today. The entire affair could equally fizzle out or prove very painful for PiS. It strikes at the core image crucial for PiS's success: that of a humble party, understanding the lives of ordinary Poles. Of course, PiS's hard electorate will not turn away from them, and the social electorate will likely not switch to KO because of this – but they might stay home. However, the Kuchciński affair is another factor that will mobilize the reluctant PiS electorate to the polls. The opposition has certainly received a valuable gift for themselves at the start of the election campaign.” https://opinie.wp.pl/majmurek-kuchcinski-twardo-wyladowal-pociagnie-za-soba-w-dol-partie-opinia-6411336291330177a -- HIDING THE TRUTH ALWAYS ENDS IN LEAKS - PIOTR TRUDNOWSKI IN KLUB JAGIELLOŃSKI: “One can only hope that the situation serves as a warning to this and future governments that attempts to hide inconvenient truths from citizens and the media will sooner or later end in leaks, which will lead to an escalation of the problem rather than a successful 'wait-and-see' game.” -- IT'S A SHAME PIS WON'T BREAK WITH THE STANDARDS OF A PAUPER STATE - CONTINUES TRUDNOWSKI: “It is a shame that Law and Justice lacks the courage, with its almost unprecedented social support, to break with the standards worthy of a pauper state, not one 'rising from its knees.' Just as they should have raised the base of public and permanent remuneration for politicians in reaction to the infamous awards, so today they should make the HEAD procedure more flexible, allowing politicians to take passengers, but on transparent terms, with a guarantee of full disclosure and without abusing urgent or unjustified flights. Today's conference signals actions in the opposite direction.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2019/08/08/dymisja-kuchcinskiego-lekcewazenie-jawnosci-olewanie-procedur-dziadowskie-panstwo/ -- UNDERMINING THE CREDIBILITY OF THE OPPONENT - MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI ON PIS'S STRATEGY IN KRYTYKA: “For now, PiS has likely effectively cut off the topic on social media – Kuchciński's flights will be 'reheated,' and with less and less enthusiasm, only by the opposition's hard electorate. The details of the flights, passenger lists, and often tragicomic travel destinations will simply become boring. At the same time, they recalled Ewa Kopacz's 'cutlet inspection' and Tusk's flights, so that viewers wouldn't forget that their predecessors were worse. We don't live in the times of Goebbels' propaganda – it's not about repeating a lie a hundred times until people believe it, but primarily about undermining the opponent's credibility. It is by this method that the 'wavering' faction of PiS voters will once again learn that the other side is even worse, so there's no point in fighting. Of course, according to the highly effective formula that 'everyone steals, but at least these guys share (and don't act superior to the people).'” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/rygory-beda-choc-samorzadowcy-z-podkarpacia-chorem-bronia-marszalka/ -- THE PRESIDENT IS STRICT WITH HIS OWN - A PIS POLITICIAN IN A TEXT BY JACK GĄDKA in gazeta.pl: “The mere fact that Marek Kuchciński used the plane itself didn't decide anything. What tipped the scales was that he didn't tell the president everything – a PiS politician tells us about the behind-the-scenes of the Marshal's resignation. - Maybe he forgot? - he adds half-jokingly. As we learn, Kuchciński was reluctant to resign, but Jarosław Kaczyński forced this decision on him, allowing him to announce his resignation personally, however. As a consolation and in defense of the Marshal, the PiS narrative emphasized that the Marshal did not break the law or customs by using the flights. - The decision was the president's, not the Marshal's. The president is strict with his own people – we hear from a parliamentarian of the ruling camp. PiS wants to cut off the topic with this resignation.” http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25069954,kulisy-dymisji-marek-kuchcinski-bronil-sie-ale-prezes-pis.html -- ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON KROCZEWSKI IN A HELICOPTER: “Senate Marshal Stanisław Karczewski used a military helicopter to visit Nowe Miasto nad Pilicą, located less than 100 km from Warsaw, his hometown. The flight had HEAD status. — I don't assign HEAD status. And I haven't lived in Nowe Miasto for several years. I'm trying to sell my apartment — Karczewski tells Onet.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/loty-marszalka-karczewskiego-marszalek-senatu-latal-do-domu/svv6c3p -- SCHETYNA IS APPLYING KACZYŃSKI'S METHOD - PAWEŁ MUSIAŁEK FROM KLUB JAGIELLOŃSKI: “Focusing on fighting the left and postponing confrontation with the right until later is not an abstract scenario. The best proof is Kaczyński's long-standing method, for whom securing the right flank was always a priority. The PiS leader knew that one could only rampage on the opponent's territory when one's own enclosure was safe. This method proved very effective, although it requires patience. And Schetyna certainly has that. Therefore, the Civic Platform leader seems to be Kaczyński's most zealous student today. Of course, he cannot present this plan openly. For both the PO electorate and the elites supporting it, this is an unacceptable strategy. They would see it as Schetyna's interest, not Poland's. For them, it is obvious that the country must be saved together with the left, not on its grave, and moreover, by waiting another four years.” -- THREE BLOCS ARE A RISK FOR PIS - CONTINUES MUSIAŁEK: “However, not all cards are in Kaczyński's favor in the electoral analysis of chances and threats. Three blocs represent not only a risk but also opportunities for the opposition. Above all, they will prevent PiS from highlighting programmatic inconsistencies, which were so easy to exploit that they could easily be left to interns at Nowogrodzka Street. Now the left can organize equality marches every week, PSL can go to a March for Life, and the Platform can stay home. Everyone wins. Three blocs, and even subtly nibbling at each other, will make it harder to achieve the polarizing effect of 'PiS vs. the rest of the world.' This effect would increase the mobilization of primarily the ruling party's voters. Three blocs, on the other hand, will more easily mobilize non-PiS voters.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2019/08/08/musialek-kaczynski-idzie-po-centrum/ -- PSL WITH KUKIZ AS THE SWING VOTE - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “PSL, under the leadership of Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, is also changing. It is no longer a systemic party, as it was during the times of Waldemar Pawlak or Janusz Piechociński. If it were, Kosiniak could respond positively to Jarosław Gowin's invitation and cooperate with PiS, or remain with the opposition contender for power, PO. He has chosen the path of rebuilding support and identity so that after the elections, he can become the swing vote. Together with Kukiz'15, they have a chance to enter the Sejm. After the elections, both PiS and PO may need a coalition partner. PSL and Kukiz'15 would be ready to form an alliance with PO or PiS, given that they attacked each other earlier. A common enemy unites, but the desire for survival and co-governance unites even more.” https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/308089887-Nizinkiewicz-PSL-z-Kukizem-jezyczkiem-u-wagi.html -- CZARZASTY PREVAILS - ALEKSANDRA JAKUBOWSKA ON WPOLITYCE: “In any case, 'Zenon Nowak,' meaning Włodzimierz Czarzasty, prevails. After all, if he managed to outmaneuver such an experienced politician as Schetyna, playing with two political youngsters was child's play.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/458488-najpierw-ogral-schetyne-teraz-dwoch-tenorow -- TVN24 TURNS 18. -- BIRTHDAYS: Marek Kuchciński, Bogumiła Boba, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.

Łukasz Mężyk